Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (390) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (389). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (2-2) looks to rebound from their 55-19 upset loss at home against Baylor as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Hawai’i (1-4) has suffered two straight upset losses after a tighter 20-16 upset loss at home against San Jose State as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on Arizona State last week — but they disappointed, and Baylor played much better than I expected. The Sun Devils did generate 409 yards of offense, but they were held back by a -3 net turnover margin. The Sun Devils have been reliable to bounce back with good efforts after bad performances since Kenny Dillingham became their head coach. Arizona State has covered the point spread in 12 of their 14 games following a loss under Dillingham — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their 10 games after a loss to a fellow Big 12 rival in his tenure. The Sun Devils have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 17 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 37 or more points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Hosting a Group of Six program presents a game to get back to business for Dillingham — and Arizona State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. We want to fade a disappointing Rainbow Warriors team that has scored only 26 combined points in their last two games. Hawai’i has played four straight Unders in large measure to their underwhelming offense — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Head coach Timmy Chang is building a unique and strong culture in his fifth season as the Rainbow Warriors head coach. The former quarterback in the early aughts operated the June Jones Run-and-Shoot offense that he has redeployed in his tenure. Hawai’i went 9-4 last season after ending their season with a 35-31 victory against California in the Hawai’i Bowl. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Micah Alejandro returns for his second season under center after completing 66% of his passes for 3106 yards with 24 touchdown passes and nine interceptions. But Chang had only 12 of the 32 players that logged in at least 200 snaps back this season — and the handful of Power Four conference players who were underutilized at their previous school have not filled in the gaps. The wide receiver room has been a weakness — and four-year starting slot receiver, Profile Ashlock, has yet to play a down this season due to injuries. Now there are additional wide receivers that are banged up. The offensive line has not played well either. The Rainbow Warriors lead the nation by passing on 64.1% of their offensive plays — and Alejado has already been sacked 14 times. The Run-and-Shoot is simply not working as Hawai’i ranks 115th in Offensive Success Rate and 113th in Offensive Explosiveness. Their passing game ranks 114th in Success Rate and 124th in Explosiveness. They should be running the ball more to protect Alejado — although they are generating only 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry. The Rainbow Warriors rank 77th in Rush Success Rate and 114th in Rushing Explosiveness.  The defense lost 10 of their top 13 tacklers from last season — and now injuries are exposing the lack of size and depth on that side of the ball. Hawai’i ranks 114th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. Against the run, they rank 10th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and 118th in Explosiveness Allowed. They also rank 105th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. On the road, Hawai’i is allowing their home hosts to generate 6.5 Yards-Per-Play. The Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: The Sun Devils have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when favored. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Arizona State Sun Devils (390) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (389). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 10/10:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with the Utah Utes minus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks. Utah (4-0) returns to action after their 31-17 win at Iowa State as a 7.5-point favorite on September 26th. The Utes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after their bye week. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games at home. Kansas (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 55-0 win at home against Middle Tennessee as a 20.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road. Take Utah minus the points. Best of luck  — Frank.

Frank has been featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016. More substance, less hype. Evidence, not vibes. Careful. Thorough. Genuine. His reports document his professionalism.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 23 of 31 (74%) MLB TOTALS TEAR continued by DELIVERING their 25* MLB Divisional Series Total of the Year with the LA Dodgers-Atlanta Under on Wednesday! Frank is on a 16 of 26 (62%) MLB run — and now he furthers his 7 of 10 (70%) MLB Game of the Year mark and his 19 of 25 (76%) MLB Game of the Month/Year Over-Under run with his 25* MLB AL Central Total of the Year for tonight’s Chicago White Sox-Cleveland O/U winner on TBS-TV at 8:00 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (953) and the Cleveland Guardians (954) in Game Five of their American League Division Series. THE SITUATION: Chicago (88-80) has lost the last two games in this series after their 9-5 loss at home in Game Four on Thursday. Cleveland (87-79) had lost three games in a row before staving off elimination in their two games on the road in Chicago. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The White Sox have now scored at least three runs in 19 games in a row — and they have scored at least five runs in 10 of those contests. Chicago has played a whopping 23 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a day off. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing their last game. And while their bullpen pitched 8 1/3 innings on Thursday, they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen pitched at least eight innings. They go back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total — and they have also played 11 of their last 13 road games Over the Total after playing their two previous games at home. Additionally, the White Sox have played 12 of their last 18 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range — and they have played 35 of their last 54 games on the road as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. Sean Burke is their starting pitcher tonight. The right-hander had an 11-7 record along with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 32 games (27 starts) in the regular season. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression. Both his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 3.79 and 4.06 moving forward. He did give up only one earned run in 5 1/3 innings in Game Two on Monday — but the Guardians should have an edge after studying the tape from that experience. In his 57 1/3 innings since the beginning of August, he has been saddled with a 1.33 WHIP. The White Sox bullpen has a rough 4.57 ERA in their 41 1/3 innings in this postseason. Cleveland ranks eighth and fourth in MLB since August in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created. The Guardians have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning their last game. The Over is 5-2-2 in their last 9 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. The Over is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games at home. Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams making his third appearance in this series. After starting in Game Two when he gave up two earned runs in five innings, he pitched in relief for an inning on Thursday — so there is a chance that he will be at less than 100% given this change of routine. I’m beginning to worry about his workload as he has now pitched 190 1/3 innings this season, which is a career-high by 22 2/3 innings. He faces a White Sox team that ranks seventh and fourth in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created. 

FINAL TAKE: The wind is blowing out tonight in Cleveland towards the lake — so that may help generate more home runs (and it is good that the wind is not blowing in when investing in the Over). Chicago has played 10 of their last 13 postseason games Over the Total — and the Guardians have played 9 of their 15 games in the playoffs Over the Total since Steven Vogt became their manager. 25* MLB AL Central Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (953) and the Cleveland Guardians (954). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (344) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the USC Trojans (343). THE SITUATION: Penn State (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 34-13 upset loss at Northwestern as a 2.5-point favorite last Friday night. USC (5-1) rebounded from their 14-point loss at home against Oregon with a 25-21 win at home against Washington as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS MINUS THE POINT(S): Penn State was emotionally flat last week as they did not look recovered from their loss to Wisconsin when they gave up 14 points in the final four minutes to give away that game. They caught a fired-up Wildcats christening their new stadium in a rare Friday night game in Evanston — and Northwestern offensive coordinator Chip Kelly schemed up a rushing attack that generated a whopping 431 rushing yards. Now it is incumbent on first-year head coach Matt Campbell to right the ship and keep Penn State’s season from spiraling out of control. In his head coaching career, Campbell’s teams have covered the point spread in 27 of their 45 games after a straight-up loss to a conference rival. His teams have also covered the point spread in 15 of their 23 home games as a favorite of up to seven points. After the James Franklin era ended last season, the Nittany Lions’ administration turned to Matt Campbell as its new head coach after a very nice ten-year run at Iowa State. A perennial doormat, Campbell turned the Cyclones into a very respectable program. Campbell convinced 24 of his players at Iowa State to join him in the move, with 11 to 13 projected to be starters. In all, about 40 new players from about 20 different programs were brought in to replace the 70 players from last year’s Nittany Lions team that had national championship aspirations. Senior Rocco Becht, a three-year starter at Iowa State, brings veteran leadership and experience — and his top four targets in the passing game and running back Carson Hansen joined him in the move to Happy Valley. Becht was effective early on this season against a soft non-conference schedule — but the injury to wide receiver Koby Howard has slowed down the passing attack. I liked the hire of defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who was intrigued to coach for his alma mater after two seasons running the defense at USC. Lynn needs to address his run defense that is giving up too many explosive plays — but his pass defense has been very good. The Nittany Lions rank second in the nation in Opponent Pass Explosiveness Allowed — and they rank ninth in the FBS in Opponent Passing Success Rate Allowed. Can USC head coach Lincoln Riley be patient enough to stick with the run against this Penn State defense? We were on the Trojans last week — but they were flat early on in that game and trailed by a 14-10 score going into halftime. In the end, a 48-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown made the winning difference. That is not a victory that has aged well after Iowa used a backup quarterback to score 41 points (!) in a 14-point victory on the road against the Huskies last night. USC has been consistently inconsistent under Riley’s leadership. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their 25 games after beating a fellow conference opponent in Riley’s tenure. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win at home against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games after winning their last game at home. Additionally, USC has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games away from home after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread. Another consistent component of the Trojans in the Riley era has been a suspect defense. After defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn decided to leave the program and join Campbell in Happy Valley to run his defense, Riley addressed that problem by coaxing the 66-year-old Gary Patterson out of retirement to coordinate the defense. Don’t get me wrong: I really liked Patterson back in 2014 when he was coaching at TCU, the last time he oversaw a defense that ranked ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s top 20 in his SP+ defensive ratings at the end of the season. Patterson's last coaching job was in 2021 … so what could go wrong? The numbers are not good, despite playing only one of their opponents ranking in the top 50 in SP+ Offense so far. USC ranks 119th in the nation by allowing 4.23 Points-Per-Drive inside their 40-yard line — and they rank 111th in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed. This defense is struggling against the run and the pass. The Trojans rank 74th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 74th in Opponent Rush Explosiveness Allowed. They also rank 103rd in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 114th in Opponent Pass Explosiveness Allowed. Quarterback Jayden Maiava is back as well for a second-year season under Riley that has not been this hype since Williams final year in 2024 (the 8-5 season). Like his head coach, he demonstrated a penchant for folding in the biggest of games when looking past the flat-track bully numbers that helped him rank fifth in the FBS with 3711 passing yards last season. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their 19 games in the Central or Eastern time zone in the Riley era. And in their last 24 games against conference opponents when favored, the Trojans failed to cover the point spread in 18 of those contests. 

FINAL TAKE: There may not be a defensive coach who has a better understanding of Jayden Maiava than Penn State’s D’Anton Lynn. Lynn was the defensive coordinator at USC the previous two seasons — so he would go against Maiava in every practice. Lastly, it will be a “white out” game at Beaver Stadium tonight — and the Nittany Lions have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when their home fans are wearing the all-whites. 25* CFB Big Ten Underdog of the Month with the Penn State Nittany Lions (344) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the USC Trojans (343). Best of luck for us — Frank.