Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 11/8:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs. Hawai’i (6-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 45-38 loss at San Jose State as a 2-point underdog last Saturday. The Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They are also 15-2-2 ATS in their last 19 home games as an underdog against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents. San Diego State has won six games in a row after their 24-7 victory against Wyoming as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games in November since Sean Lewis took over as their head coach. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. Take Hawai’i plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on an 11 of 17 (65%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after DELIVERING their 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month last night with the OKC-Sacramento Over! Frank is also on a 13 of 17 (76%) College Football run with featured plays along with a 26 of 38 (68%) CFB featured plays run in the regular season — and now he furthers his 10 of 12 (83%) CFB Game of the Month run with his 25* College Football Game of the Month for Saturday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oregon State Beavers (202) minus the points versus the Sam Houston Bearkats (201). THE SITUATION: Oregon State (2-7) has won two games in a row after their 10-7 upset victory at home against Washington State as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Sam Houston (0-8) remains winless this season after their 55-14 loss at Louisiana Tech as a 17-point underdog last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oregon State is playing much better since they fired second-year head coach Trent Bray and replaced him with Robb Alley as their interim head coach. Alley is a veteran who had success as the head coach at Idaho two decades ago before most recently serving as the defensive coordinator at Central Michigan. He appears to have cleaned many things up since taking over on October 12th — especially on the defensive side of the football, which is his area of expertise. Oregon State held Lafayette to only 269 yards on 3.8 Yards-Per-Play three weeks ago. It was tough to read too much into that game against an FCS opponent. But after a bye week, they limited Washington State to just 271 yards on 4.6 YPP in their upset victory last week. This program has been in a dead zone since the Pac-12 broke up two years ago. But in hindsight, elevating Bray from defensive coordinator to head coach prior to last season may have been a short-sighted decision. With 12 starters back from last year’s team that finished 5-7, the Beavers should have been seeing better results. They did suffer one-possession losses against Houston and Appalachian State. They are only getting outgained by -33.8 net Yards-Per-Game. But a 25-point loss at home against Wake Forest last month was the final straw. Their -7 net turnover margin is not helping matters. Alley has this team playing sound football, leaning on their defense and running game. I don’t endorse a team that only gained 184 yards of offense last week lightly. But FBS teams coming off a win in conference play despite failing to gain at least 250 yards of offense have then covered the point spread in 80 of those next 137 games. In Alley’s head coaching career, his teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their 8 games following an upset loss. Oregon State has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games following a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after not allowing more than 14 points. And in their last 43 games at home at Reser Stadium, they have covered the point spread in 30 of those contests. They have the perfect foil in Sam Houston, who may very well be the worst team of all the 136 teams in the FBS. The Bearkats surrendered 646 yards last week in their loss to the Bulldogs. Even this meager Beavers offense should find success against this defense that ranks 122nd in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play and 133rd in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. Sam Houston ranks 123rd in EPA per Play on offense and 107th in Success Rate on offense. They have been outscored by at least 17 points in seven of their eight losses — so this is a great “get right” game for Oregon State. After a 10-3 season that concluded with the program’s first bowl victory in a 31-26 win against Georgia Southern, 12-year head coach K.C. Keeler took the head coaching job at Temple in the offseason. The Bearkats turned to a former offensive coordinator, Phil Longo, as their next head coach after he endured a difficult mix of cultures as the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin. Longo had previous success as the offensive coordinator at North Carolina, but his head coaching experience is limited. His Air Raid offense inherited five starters, including senior quarterback Hunter Watson, who accounted for 21 touchdowns last year — but it has become clear that he does not have the players to match his preferred system. The defense presented a bigger challenge with six players joining defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity who all moved to North Texas — no starters are back for this unit for new defensive coordinator Freddie Aughtry-Linsday, who takes over after coaching the nickel backs at North Carolina State since 2020. With only four defensive players on the roster after the spring transfer portal who have taken more than 110 snaps at the FBS level, this unit looked to be extremely vulnerable, even before the additional burden of having to take the field after Longo’s up-tempo offense will either score quickly or suffer an even quicker three-and-out. The Bearkats were just 3-9 two seasons ago before their seven-win turnaround was jettisoned by a perfect 6-0 record in one-possession games (second-best in the FBS), a +12 net turnover margin (tied for eighth-best in the FBS), and precious few injuries. Under new leadership, those fortunate occurrences were unlikely to continue. Sam Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss to a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by 17 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, the Bearkats have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Roster depth is another problem for Longo — and the Bearkats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the second half of the season. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Oregon State Beavers (202) minus the points versus the Sam Houston Bearkats (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.