Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on France (225600) versus Morocco (225599) in the quarterfinals of the 2026 World Cup. THE SITUATION: France (W5-D0-L0) advanced to the quarterfinals of the World Cup with their 1-0 victory against Paraguay in the Round of 16 on Saturday. Morocco (W3-D2-L0) joined them in the final eight with their 3-0 victory against Canada in their Round of 16 match on Saturday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.

REASONS TO TAKE FRANCE MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Morocco dominated the scoreboard but not the underlying metrics against a Canada team not playing on home soil, with that contest taking place at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The Atlas Lions only generated 0.82 expected Goals (xG) — and they lost the xG battle by -0.02 xG. Canada’s best player, Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies, was not able to play in that match due to the injury the hamstring injury that has kept him on the shelf for almost all of 2026 — and that simply left Les Rouges’ roster not on the same level as world class teams. And Morocco has arrived as a top ten team in the world. This is a rare case where FIFA got it right with their world ranking of the Atlas Lions as seventh in the world — as opposed to the ELO rankings or Nate Silver’s updated Soccer Power Index with his revamped PELE rankings that placed them 24th and 22nd in the world to begin this tournament. Morocco has made a major commitment to their national program, which includes vibrant youth leagues that are developing waves of talent. This showdown is a rematch of their semifinal showdown between these two sides in the 2022 World Cup semifinals, which France won by a 2-0 score. Unfortunately for the Atlas Lions, they come into this match undermanned. Attacking midfielder Ismael Saibari suffered a hamstring injury and had to leave the match against Canada in the 22nd minute. He is not likely to play in this match. His loss is devastating, as it has been a breakout tournament for the PSV Eindhoven star who signed a big deal with Bayern Munich to join the Bavarian giants in the fall. He leads Morocco with three goals in this World Cup. The Atlas Lions may also be without center back Chadi Riad, who suffered a knock in the match with Canada. Morocco was already far from 100% entering this tournament. Real Betis wing Abde Ezzalzouli and Marseille center back Nayef Agero did not make the World Cup roster due to injuries — and they both were likely going to be fixtures in manager Mohamed Ouahbi’s starting XI. It was the success this team has had despite those players that has been one of the reasons I have been impressed with this team. But now they are playing France with easily one of the top three deepest rosters in the world — and the Atlas Lions are just not at the same level to stay competitive with them with so many of their key players unavailable. They still have Paris Saint-Germain’s Achraf Hakimi, who may be the best right back in the world. But while Hakimi is an elite two-way player, the Morocco defense has been leaky. They have conceded goals in six of their last ten matches — and they have only two clean sheets in their last six matches. Don’t read too much into France’s failing to cover the -1.5 goal-line in their match against Paraguay — they knew they were going to be in a physical rumble with the South American side. Les Bleus demonstrated maturity and resolve to fight the Paraguayians at their level but never lose their nerve and get suckered into making emotional or physical mistakes. They were patient when on the attack — and Kylian Mbappe scored their go-ahead goal on a penalty kick in the 70th minute. Defensively, they were dominant as they held Paraguay to just 0.13 xG, zero Big Chances (a shot with an expected Goal probability of at least 35%), and no shots on target from the mere five shots they gave up. France generated a healthy 1.45 xG —  so while the scoreboard suggests it was a close match, the eye-test indicates they were never really threatened. Les Bleus have now won 11 of their last 12 competitive matches, including seven in a row. They have scored 14 goals (one own goal) in their five World Cup matches, with at least three goals in all their other matches. They have conceded just two goals. The French roster simply oozes with talent. Ousmane Dembele is the reigning Ballon d’Or winner playing for PSG. But it is Mbappe who is the Michael Jordan of this team, with Dembele more in the Scottie Pippen role. Les Bleus are an offensive juggernaut that has scored goals in 18 straight matches across all competitions — and they have scored two or more goals in 17 of those contests. It is simply an abundance of riches for manager Didier Deschamps with All-World team of forwards in Mbappe, Dembele, attacking midfielder Michael Olise (Thierry Henry’s predicted breakout star of this tournament), and emerging superstar forwards at PSG, Desire Doue and Bradley Barcola, battling for the starting spot next to Mbappe. Entering the tournament, there was a concern regarding whether these parts could fit together. Like the 1992 basketball Dream Team for the United States, pure unadulterated talent is a good answer for questions like that. “Only” scoring 16 goals in their six qualification matches can be explained away by these superstars being more focused on their professional clubs during the non-summer months. The World Cup has these players' full attention now. Mbappe has seven goals in this tournament — and he has now scored 19 goals in his 19 World Cup matches for the French.

FINAL TAKE: Les Bleus have only lost twice in the World Cup since Deschamps took over the national team in 2012. His presence on the sidelines gives the French a big edge in what is his swan song tournament for the national team. Ouahbi has pushed all the right buttons for Morocco — but he lacks the experience of Deschamps in big matches like this. He was only elevated to his position in March after the national team sacked previous manager Walid Regragui, who had led the team since after the World Cup in 2022. Oahbi’s previous experience was managing Morocco’s Under-20 and Under-23 squads. The Atlas Lions have lost four of their six matches against France in their history, with two draws and zero wins. Given the goal-line of -1, the real question here is: what is more likely, a France victory by multiple goals in regulation time — or a tie score or even an upset victory by Morocco? Given their injury situation and lapses on defense, I expect Les Bleus to seize a lead which will make them even more dangerous to score multiple times. 20* World Cup Morocco-France Fox-TV Special with the money-line on France (225600) versus Morocco (225599). Best of luck for us — Frank.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves across the Atlantic Ocean for the next two weeks, with its joint venture with the DP Tour culminating with the British Open next week. But first up is the Scottish Open hosted at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland, for the eighth straight year. This is a links course with wide fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Designed in 2008 by Tom Doak in 2008, this tournament is a Par 70 event with three Par 5s, five Par 3s, and 10 Par 4s. The track consists of 7237 yards. The rough is two inches on the first cut before the thickest grass grows out to five inches. The 156 professionals will contend with 83 bunkers. There are no water hazards outside the seaside backdrop for this course. The undulated fescue/Poa Annua blend greens feature extensive contouring and measure only up to 10 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter (before the wind). These putting surfaces average 7000 square feet. These large targets on the approach have resulted in the last three tournaments here producing the first, fourth, and tied for second-longest proximity to the hole on average. Last year, this tournament was the sixth stingiest when it came to the pros one-putting — but it also ranked fifth on the PGA Tour in three-putt avoidance. What all these data points suggest is that golfers generally get on the green far away from the hole and do not make their long putts, but usually hole out on their second putt when compared to other tournaments on the tour. Complicating these large putting surfaces is that the average fairways hit was 6.27 of the 13 non-Par-3 holes last year — and that 48.26% clip was the lowest on the PGA Tour in 2025. The average score at this tournament last year was 70.021 per round. The top 65 scorers (plus ties) will make the weekend cut. Weather typically plays a significant role on these seaside courses. Rainstorms are forecast on Saturday. Wind may gust up to 20 miles per hour this week.

LONG SHOT: Alex Fitzpatrick (+5500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fitzpatrick (7021) versus David Puig (7022) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 7:26 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Alex Fitzpatrick, who is listed at +5500 odds at DraftKings. Matt’s little brother has thrived since earning his PGA Tour card by joining with him to win the PGA Zurich Classic of New Orleans doubles event in April. Since then, he has added four more top nine or better finishes in his next four PGA Tour events. Seven of his eight PGA Tournaments have resulted in a top 23 or better after his tie for seventh place at the PGA Travelers Championship two weeks ago. The younger Fitzpatrick did not come out of nowhere — he has four top 20 finishes on the European DP Tour, including a victory at the difficult Hero Indian Open. Along with his tie for sixth place at The Memorial at the beginning of May, he has finished in the top ten in seven of his last 12 tournaments worldwide. His four top tens in solo events on the PGA Tour this spring have all been highly competitive Signature Events — so he is not taking advantage of weaker fields. He gained strokes versus the field in Off the Tee in all those events — and he would rank in the 11th on the PGA Tour, just ahead of Xander Schauffele, in that metric if he had the sample size to qualify for those rankings. Even better, he would rank third on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee to Green — and he would lead the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and rank third in the field in that metric since his debut on the tour in the New Orleans event he won with his brother. He checks all the boxes for what is needed to thrive at the Renaissance Club — he is an elite driver, he is precise with his irons, and he is comfortable putting on fescue grass. This is his third professional trip to this golf course — and while he did not make the cut in those two events, he is in the best form in his life now (and at great odds). 

Fitzpatrick is linked with David Puig in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Puig has five top 10s on the LIV Tour this year after his top five at Andalucia a month ago. Puig competed at the PGA Championship, where he tied for 18th place — but then he missed the cut at the US Open last month. The 24-year-old Spaniard is long off the tee — but his shot data at the two major championships would translate to ranking 149th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He has lost strokes overall versus the field in his last five PGA Tour events. This will be his first professional trip to the Renaissance Club, which puts him at a competitive disadvantage relative to Fitzpatrick’s experience here. Take Fitzpatrick (7021) versus Puig (7022) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves across the Atlantic Ocean for the next two weeks, with its joint venture with the DP Tour culminating with the British Open next week. But first up is the Scottish Open hosted at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland, for the eighth straight year. This is a links course with wide fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Designed in 2008 by Tom Doak in 2008, this tournament is a Par 70 event with three Par 5s, five Par 3s, and 10 Par 4s. The track consists of 7237 yards. The rough is two inches on the first cut before the thickest grass grows out to five inches. The 156 professionals will contend with 83 bunkers. There are no water hazards outside the seaside backdrop for this course. The undulated fescue/Poa Annua blend greens feature extensive contouring and measure only up to 10 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter (before the wind). These putting surfaces average 7000 square feet. These large targets on the approach have resulted in the last three tournaments here producing the first, fourth, and tied for second-longest proximity to the hole on average. Last year, this tournament was the sixth stingiest when it came to the pros one-putting — but it also ranked fifth on the PGA Tour in three-putt avoidance. What all these data points suggest is that golfers generally get on the green far away from the hole and do not make their long putts, but usually hole out on their second putt when compared to other tournaments on the tour. Complicating these large putting surfaces is that the average fairways hit was 6.27 of the 13 non-Par-3 holes last year — and that 48.26% clip was the lowest on the PGA Tour in 2025. The average score at this tournament last year was 70.021 per round. The top 65 scorers (plus ties) will make the weekend cut. Weather typically plays a significant role on these seaside courses. Rainstorms are forecast on Saturday. Wind may gust up to 20 miles per hour this week.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Tyrell Hatton (+3400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hatton (7128) versus Viktor Hovland (7127) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 3:38 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Tyrrell Hatton, who is listed at +3400 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Hatton finished in a tie for third place at the Masters in April. While he did miss the cut at the PGA Championship in May, he redeemed himself with a tie for seventh place at the US Open last month. He also won a LIV Tour event at Andalucia since the Masters. He ranks fourth in the field by averaging +2.15 Shots-Gained per round versus his opponents. He lacks the sample size to rank in the official PGA Tour skill rankings with just the three major championships, which offer exemptions for LIV Tour members that he has played. But Hatton would lead the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and eighth in Shots-Gained: Tee to Green if his numbers from those three tough tests were applied. The Englishman now hits the Scottish Open and British Open swing of the global tour as perhaps the best links player in the world. He is very good with his long irons — and he has a great track record in Scotland either here or at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Hatton has never finished worse than 24th at the Renaissance Club — and he last played here in 2023 when he finished in a tie for sixth place after shooting eight-under in Round Two. 

Hatton is linked with Viktor Hovland in Round One head-to-head props. Hovland last played two weeks ago when he won the PGA Travelers Championship in a playoff against Scottie Scheffler. After that triumph, he is probably looking to peak next week at the British Open. While he finished in third place at the PGA RBC Canadian Open last month, he did follow that up by missing the cut at the US Open. His improved short game helps explain his recent success. While struggling with his chipping for years, he ranks 39th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. But with the average square feet of the greens at the Renaissance Club being 7000 square feet, long putts rather than chipping around the green is the more likely scenario this week — especially for the pros who are as good with their irons as Hovland. He ranks 17th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. But power with his driver remains a relative weakness as he ranks 90th on the tour in Driving Distance. That explains why he ranks just 88th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee. Hovland finished in a tie for 11th place at this tournament last year — but he had not finished better than 25th in his other three professional trips to this event. He ranks just 82nd on the PGA Tour in Round One Scoring. Take Hatton (7128) versus Hovland (7127) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves across the Atlantic Ocean for the next two weeks, with its joint venture with the DP Tour culminating with the British Open next week. But first up is the Scottish Open hosted at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland, for the eighth straight year. This is a links course with wide fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Designed in 2008 by Tom Doak in 2008, this tournament is a Par 70 event with three Par 5s, five Par 3s, and 10 Par 4s. The track consists of 7237 yards. The rough is two inches on the first cut before the thickest grass grows out to five inches. The 156 professionals will contend with 83 bunkers. There are no water hazards outside the seaside backdrop for this course. The undulated fescue/Poa Annua blend greens feature extensive contouring and measure only up to 10 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter (before the wind). These putting surfaces average 7000 square feet. These large targets on the approach have resulted in the last three tournaments here producing the first, fourth, and tied for second-longest proximity to the hole on average. Last year, this tournament was the sixth stingiest when it came to the pros one-putting — but it also ranked fifth on the PGA Tour in three-putt avoidance. What all these data points suggest is that golfers generally get on the green far away from the hole and do not make their long putts, but usually hole out on their second putt when compared to other tournaments on the tour. Complicating these large putting surfaces is that the average fairways hit was 6.27 of the 13 non-Par-3 holes last year — and that 48.26% clip was the lowest on the PGA Tour in 2025. The average score at this tournament last year was 70.021 per round. The top 65 scorers (plus ties) will make the weekend cut. Weather typically plays a significant role on these seaside courses. Rainstorms are forecast on Saturday. Wind may gust up to 20 miles per hour this week.

BEST BET: Matt Fitzpatrick (+2150 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fitzpatrick (7155) versus Ludvig Aberg (7156) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:43 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Genesis Scottish Open is on Matt Fitzpatrick, who is listed at +2150 odds to win this event at DraftKings.  After Fitzpatrick finished in second place at the PGA RBC Canadian Open last month, he comes off a fourth-place finish at the PGA Travelers Championship two weeks ago. He continues to play at an elite level this season — and his putter is trending in the right direction after experiencing a mini-slump earlier with his blade in the spring. He now has six top-four finishes in 2026 — and he leads the PGA Tour in the FedEx standings. He has won three of his last ten PGA Tour events after he joined his brother, Alex, to win the PGA Zurich Challenge in New Orleans in April. We were on Fitzpatrick when he won the PGA RBC Heritage Championship in April. We were also on him when he was our Best Bet when he won the Valspar Championship in March, which paid off at 15-1. It easily could be four PGA Tour wins this season — we were also on Fitzpatrick when he gave away the championship at THE PLAYERS Championship. He had a lead late in Round Four of that event before Cameron Young birdied the 17th hole. Young then hit the longest drive on the 18th hole ever at TPC Sawgrass of 375 yards to put him in a great opportunity for a birdie. Fitzpatrick hit his drive into the rough. But Young missed his birdie putt — leaving Fitzpatrick with a 12-footer to force a playoff. But the Englishman missed the putt and had to settle for second place. He is solid with his power off the tee as he ranks 69th on the tour in Driving Distance. But what is making him elite is his control of his driver, as he ranks eighth on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy. Overall, he ranks 40th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. But he has never been in better form when it comes to his iron play, which he explains comes from a change he made in his swing with his second-shot approaches to the green. He is third on the PGA Tour in 2026 in Ball-Striking (SG: Off the Tee plus SG: Tee-to-Green). He ranks second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee to Green — and it is his improved iron play that has made the difference in what has been his best run as a professional this year. His ranking of second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green is a career high. He also ranks second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He has gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in straight events and 20 of his last 22 tournaments. The former US Open winner has made the cut in every professional event worldwide since last year’s Masters. He won the DP World Championship in the fall. His putter has sometimes held him back this season — but he ranked 30th in Shots-Gained: Putting last year, so above-average putting can be expected. Oh, and Fitzpatrick leads the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He ranks top-15 or better on the tour in Par-3, Par-4, and Par-5 scoring. No professional golfer is an automatic play for me — fit and course history when considering the current spot on the PGA Tour is an essential consideration. But it is hard not to consider Fitzpatrick when he continues to be undervalued by the market as the seventh favorite on the board despite his elite numbers. Fitzpatrick has a great history at the Renaissance Club, where he finished in fourth place last year. He also posted a sixth-place finish in 2022. In his seven starts at this course as either a PGA or DP Tour event, he has gained +4.6 strokes versus the field per tournament — and he has never lost strokes versus the field with his putter in those seven tournaments. Finally, Fitzpatrick prefers difficult scoring conditions — and the Englishman is well-practiced in windy conditions like this and rolls with the punches. He is one of the best players in the wind on the tour — so if things start getting dicey, he remains very much alive. 

Fitzpatrick is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Round One head-to-head props. We are often finding ourselves facing Aberg this year — but when backing good golfers like Fitzpatrick in head-to-head props, there is little place to hide. The books are not in the business to make it easy on us. I have backed Aberg in the past — and I’m sure I will again in the future. My general worry is that he can be too dependent on his power off the tee. Perhaps Aberg will simply grip-it and rip-it and take his chances with the Fescue when it gets patchier outside the primary rough. That’s still precarious. Aberg’s short game remains his weakness. He ranks 105th on the PGA Tour in Scrambling. He then ranks 69th in Sand Save Percentage, which is not a good sign with 83 sand bunkers looming this week. His form is decent but not outstanding right now, as he has not finished better than 17th place in his last four tournaments. He last played at the Travelers Championship where he finished in a tie for 55th place. He does have a good history at the Renaissance Club with a tie for fourth place in 2024 and then a tie for eighth place last year. But while Aberg ranks 47th on the PGA Tour in Round One Scoring, Fitzpatrick ranks seventh in that category. Take Fitzpatrick (7155) versus Aberg (7156) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.