Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arkansas State Red Wolves (215) and the Memphis Tigers (216). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (0-0) returns 10 starters from last year’s team that finished with a 7-6 record after a 34-28 victory against Missouri State in the xBox Bowl. Memphis (1-0) kicked off their season last Saturday with a 27-21 upset victory at UNLV as a 4.5-point underdog. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Red Wolves did not see their win total improve last season for the first time in four years — but head coach Butch Jones has this program headed in a positive direction. After going 5-19 in his first two seasons at Arkansas State, Jones has overseen a 21-18 record in the last three years here in Jonesboro. The Red Wolves started slow last year by winning just one of their first five games — but they rallied in the second half of the season by winning six of their last eight contests, culminating in a 34-28 victory against Missouri State in the xBox Bowl. Ten starters are back from that team, although there are some critical losses. On offense, wide receiver Corey Rucker was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Las Vegas Raiders after breaking the program’s all-time receiving yards record. Senior quarterback Jaylen Raynor transferred to Iowa State after passing for 8694 yards and accounting for 67 total touchdowns in the last three seasons after taking over under center after four games in the 2023 season. The team will really miss the six game-winning touchdown drives he engineered in the last two seasons. Jones communicated in a press conference this week that “there is no need” for him to declare his starting quarterback. He may decide to use more than one player under center — and this brings to mind the old John Madden adage that “if you have two quarterbacks, then you have none.” Let’s just say that is far from ideal. First-team reps were probably split this week — and it will be harder for any quarterback to find a rhythm if they are splitting time. The perceived leader in training camp has been Texas transfer Trey Owens. The 6’5 sophomore is a classic pocket passer. The only player with starting experience in college football is his junior Ethan Crawford, who passed for 849 yards and ran for another 211 yards for Southern Mississippi two years ago before transferring to Arkansas State last year. First-year offensive coordinator Garrett Altman brought two backup quarterbacks with him from Vanderbilt, where he was the quarterbacks coach the last two seasons. Altman will be calling plays for the first time at the collegiate level. Don’t be surprised if this unit struggles. Even with  Raynor under center last year, the Red Wolves failed to score more than 21 points six times — and they scored less than 17 points for times. The defense replaces the entire front six — and the transfer of defensive tackle Cody Sigler will sting. The defensive backfield has three starters back, including their top four safeties from last season. Jones brought in 17 players in the transfer portal and four junior college players to help defensive coordinator Griff McCarley in his second season running the defense. While Arkansas State ranked 110th in the nation by giving up 413.3 total Yards-Per-Game, that did represent an improvement of 49 YPG from 2024. McCarley and this defense will benefit from the Memphis game tape last week that unveiled their new offense under first-year offensive coordinator Kevin Decker and their new quarterback Marcus Stokes. The Tigers registered six sacks of UNLV quarterback Jackson Arnold last week — and their defense stepped up to stop the Rebels on downs at the 33 and 18-yard lines in the second half. Memphis is essentially a brand-new team this season, with one offensive lineman being the only starter back from a squad that finished 8-5. In comes Charles Huff, who led Southern Mississippi to a 7-6 record in his first season after inheriting a team that went 1-11. Like he did when he departed from the head coaching job at Marshall, he brought a ton of players with him. The Tigers could be renamed Southern Miss North this year, with 17 of his Golden Eagles players taking the four-hour drive up I-55. Overall, Huff brought in 53 players in the transfer portal. He has an interesting background. He was an assistant running backs coach in the NFL for the Buffalo Bills under Chan Gailey early in his career. He was the special teams coordinator and running backs coach at Penn State under James Franklin, where he helped recruit and develop Saquon Barkley. He later got tapped by Nick Saban to serve as an associate head coach and running backs coach at Alabama, where he played an integral role with Najee Harris. He then became the head coach at Marshall in 2021. After winning the Sun Belt Conference in 2024, the failure to agree on a contract extension motivated his decision to depart for Southern Mississippi last year. He is known as a culture builder and great recruiter. Fueled by FedEx money, Memphis has a vibrant NIL program. The foundation of the defense will consist of 11 transfers from Southern Miss, including seven players who logged at least 225 snaps and four of whom were full-time starters. Lance Guidry is the defensive coordinator after serving in that role for Huff at Marshall from 2021-2022 and then at Miami (FL) from 2022-2024. After giving up 460 yards last week, the Tigers defense should play much better this week, as is often the case between the first and second games of a new season. Huff’s teams have played 5 of their 8 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 6 of their 9 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. His teams have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season. 

FINAL TAKE: The Red Wolves have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, they have played 15 of their 23 games on the road Under the Total as an underdog since Jones became their head coach — and they have played 4 of those 5 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog, getting 7.5 to 14 points. 10* CFB Saturday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Arkansas State Red Wolves (215) and the Memphis Tigers (216). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (212) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (211). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-0) returns 11 starters from the team that finished 10-3 after their 38-35 victory against LSU in the Texas Bowl. Oregon State (0-0) has 10 starters back from a 2-10 squad last season. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS:  Houston head coach Willie Fritz is simply one of the best in the business — and he has been a winner everywhere he goes. He won two junior college national championships before moving to Sam Houston, where he reached the FCS championship game twice. He had immediate success at Georgia Southern before turning Tulane into a mid-major powerhouse. Now, after a 4-8 record in his first year at Houston, Fritz led them to a 10-3 campaign that culminated in a 38-35 victory against a (depleted) LSU squad in the Texas Bowl. The Cougars are now legitimate Big 12 title and college football playoff contenders. For starters, Fritz continues to consistently win in the transfer portal. He added 17 players in the offseason, including eight players named to their all-conference teams. Prioritizing past experience, the 17 players added to the program have combined to play over 14,000 snaps in their collegiate careers. The offensive line should be particularly stout, with two returning starters being joined by three all-conference players in the transfer portal who collectively gave up only four sacks in their combined 1277 pass blocking snaps played. Fritz reunited with running back Mark Hughes in the portal as well after he rushed for 2779 yards and 22 touchdowns in two seasons with him at Tulane before not getting playing time last season at Oregon. The Houston offense is in very good hands with senior quarterback Conner Weigman. The former five-star recruit for Texas passed for 2705 yards last season with 25 touchdown passes and nine interceptions — and he added another 795 non-sack rushing yards. He brings moxie and leadership to the position — and this is the first time he will be playing for the same offensive coordinator for two straight seasons. The offense improved last year after bringing in Slade Nagle, who was a long-time assistant for Fritz at Tulane and the Green Wave’s offensive coordinator in 2023. After scoring only 14.0 Points-Per-Game in Fritz’s first year with the Cougars, that production doubled, with Houston averaging 29.1 PPG last season. The defense remained steady last year after losing defensive coordinator Shiel Wood to Texas Tech. Under first-year defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong, Tulane held their opponents to 22.8 PPG, which was a slight improvement over the 22.9 PPG they gave up under Wood in 2024. The Cougars are an experienced squad with 11 homegrown returning starters and another eight experienced starters in the transfer portal likely to take starting jobs for this team. Fritz should have this team play well in this opener, as his teams in head coaching tenure have covered the point spread in 17 of their 23 games in the first two weeks of the season — and his Houston squads have covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games in September. Fritz’s Cougars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games played outside the Big 12. The Beavers were 2-10 last season. After dropping their seventh game in a row — all against teams that would later play in bowl games — the administration fired second-year head coach Trent Bray. Under interim head coach and former Central Michigan defensive coordinator Robb Akey, Oregon State won their next two games before stumbling down the stretch by losing their final three games. The program now turns to rookie head coach JeMarcus Shephard to steward the team in the reimagined Pac-12 conference. Shephard is a Kalen DeBoer protege who was the passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach for their 2022-23 team that reached the national championship game before following DeBoer to Alabama, where he was the co-offensive coordinator, assistant head coach, and wide receivers coach the last two seasons. Ten starters are back from that team, and Shephard was active in the transfer portal by bringing in former blue-chippers in need of a second chance as well as potential diamonds in the rough at the FCS level. Former Duke quarterback Maalik Murphy returns under center — it is the first time that the Beavers have their starting quarterback return for a second straight season since 2019. But it is hard to win in Corvallis — and the near destruction of the Pac-12 did them no favors as a de facto independent along with Washington State the last two years. Losing players in the transfer portal to the power conference sharks is expected for second-tier programs like this — but it is an ominous sign when they are now losing players to comparable programs. Shephard is a player’s coach — but he is the fourth head coach in four years for this program when including the interim head coaches. Only when that cycle ends can Oregon State begin to rebuild its culture post the Jonathan Smith era. This is a football team that begins the 2026 season having lost 16 of their last 19 games. The Beavers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played in the first month of the season. They failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog. Furthermore, Oregon State has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games against fellow FBS opponents. The Beavers are a program just trying to get back to respectability — and this is a tough opening game for them against a Houston team that is a series contender to represent the Big 12 in the College Football Playoffs. 

FINAL TAKE: Fritz’s teams have covered the point spread in 57 of their 87 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games at home when laying 14.5 to 21 points. His Cougars have also covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games when favored. 25* CFB Game of the Week with the Houston Cougars (212) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (211). Best of luck for us — Frank.