Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 5/24:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday is with Under the Total in Game Four of the Western Conference finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs. Oklahoma City (74-19) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 123-108 upset victory as a 2.5-point underdog on Friday. The Thunder have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. They have also played 39 of their last 72 games Under the Total against teams from the Southwest Division. San Antonio (71-26) has trails 2-1 in this series — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after an upset loss in their last game. The Spurs have also played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total when playing with revenge. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 20 of 23 (87%) NHL Game of the Month/Year Playoff run kept up after DELIVERING their 25* NHL Atlantic Division Game of the Year on Montreal at +110 in that Game Seven on Monday! Frank’s 13-0-1 NHL run improves his 24 of 28 (86%) NHL playoff mark with featured 25*/20*/10* plays that fuels his longer-running 33 of 45 (73%) NHL featured plays clip — and now he furthers his 11 of 13 (85%) NHL playoff sides run of underdogs and favorites priced up to -150 with his 25* NHL Western Conference Game of the Year for the Colorado-Vegas money-line side winner on ESPN at 8:10 PM ET! Does Frank think that the Avalanche bounce back — or do the Golden Knights have firm control of this series? DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 8:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (65) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (66) in Game Three of the Western Conference finals. THE SITUATION: Colorado (63-19-11) has lost the first two games in this series after their 3-1 loss at home against the Golden Knights on Friday. Vegas (49-30-17) has won four games in a row. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE AVALANCHE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado misses their star defenseman, Cole Makar — and his absence really made a difference in Game One of this series. But the Avalanche were crisp in Game Two — and they went into the third period with a 1-0 lead. But Colorado surrendered a game-tying goal to Jack Eichel at the 9:15 minute mark of the third period before Ivan Barbashev gave them a one-goal lead just over two minutes later to flip the game script of that contest. Barbashev then scored an empty-netter with just over a minute left to put that game on ice. Suddenly, what seemed to be the Avalanche evening this series at 1-1 now has Vegas returning home to the strip with a 2-0 lead. Colorado had won 45 straight games when entering the third period with a lead — so Friday’s results were certainly an outlier. The Avalanche have been reliable when facing adversity like this — they have won 10 of their last 14 games on the road following a loss. They have also won 6 of their last 9 games after losing two games in a row. Makar is listed as questionable with the shoulder injury that was not made apparent before the start of this series. His absence is big (as would be his potential return to the ice in Game Three) — but the Golden Knights are without one of their best players with Mark Stone likely being out for the sixth straight game with an upper body injury. The Avalanche have still won 11 of their last 14 games. After cruising through the first two rounds of the playoffs, they just need to find their next gear now that they are facing a veteran and playoff-savvy squad with their share of world-class players. Said head coach Jared Bednar after the Game Two loss: “Some of the things that we talked about this morning, again after Game 1 and Game 2 is some of the competitive edge that we need to have. We're making soft plays on the entries that are turning over and giving them some really good rush opportunities, and they've capitalized on those. They're not giving those to us, so you know part of it is strength and competitiveness on the puck coming through the neutral zone, making firmer plays, and decision making, and we have to correct that.” Now, going on the road after playing three games in a row at home and facing the possibility of a 3-0 deficit, look for Colorado to play their best game of the series. Veteran NHL teams tend to like business trips — and the Aves have won 4 straight road games after playing their last three games at home. They have won 30 of their last 43 road games with the Total set at 6 or higher. And in their last 17 road games when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150, they have won 12 of those games. The last time goalie Scott Wedgewood played on the road, he got pulled after surrendering three goals on 12 shots in Game Three of their series with Minnesota. Still, Wedgewood has a .938 save percentage in his last seven starts on the road, even after that effort. He posted a solid +0.48 Goals Saved Above Expectation (GSAx) on Friday. After splitting time with MacKenzie Blackwood in the regular season, fatigue may have played a role in his bad start the last time he took the ice on the road in this postseason. He’s not the reason the Avalanche are trailing in this series. Vegas is getting great goaltending from Carter Hart recently — I don’t have any negative things to say against him, other than I don’t think it is sustainable. The conventional wisdom is that the Golden Knights have a tremendous home crowd advantage at home at “the Fortress” at T-Mobile Arena on the strip. However, the dirty little secret is that the crowd for these games has become spoiled and complacent. It has been as quiet as a library at times in their playoff games this year. Maybe that’s inevitable with so many playoff games for teams that are consistently in the postseason. Maybe that dynamic changes in the Western Conference finals. As it is, the Golden Knights have lost 12 of their last 17 games at home against teams with a winning record. The Avalanche outscore their opponents by +1.2 Goals-Per-Game — and Vegas has lost 5 of their last 6 home games against teams that are outscoring their opponents by +0.5 Goals-Per-Game. They have 3 of their 4 home games this season as an underdog. And while the Golden Knights had played their last three games in a row on the road, they have then lost 6 of their last 8 games at home after playing their last three games in a row on the road. Furthermore, Vegas has lost 5 straight home games when leading in a playoff series. 

FINAL TAKE: The Avalanche have won 16 of their last 18 games when avenging a same-season loss, including all 11 of those games that were played on the road. 25* NHL Western Conference Game of the Year with the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (65) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (66). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 5/24:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday morning is with Over the Total in the match between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest. Bournemouth (W13-D17-L7) still has an outside chance to qualify for the Champions League with a victory in this match along with a Liverpool loss and somehow overcoming a -6 goal net differential with the Reds. Making up six net goals versus Liverpool may be too much to ask — but the Cherries will be aggressive in this match in trying to make something happen. While they have scored 28 goals on the road in the English Premier Leagye, their expected Goals (xG) rises to 33.26 in their previous 18 matches on the road in the English Premier League. And while they have surrendered 33 goals on the road, their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) has been even worse at 38.52. Nottingham Forest (W11-D10-L16) is winless in their last three matches across all competitions with two outright losses after a 3-2 loss at Manchester United in English Premier League action last Sunday. Forest has their minds on the proverbial beach with nothing at stake in this match. In 16th place on the EPL table, they are safe from relegation but eliminated from qualifying for European competition. Three of their last four matches have seen at least four combined goals — and Nottingham Forest has surrendered eight combined goals over that span. At home, they have only scored 19 goals — but their xG rises to 26.14. Forest has surrendered 22 goals at home — but it could be worse given their xGA of 26.86 in those previous 18 EPL matches. Take Over the Total. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 16 of 25 (64%) Soccer Match of the Year run after DELIVERING their 25* UEFA Europa League Match of the Year on Aston Villa on Wednesday to further their 23 of 36 (64%) Soccer run! Frank is on a 93 of 151 (62%) English Premier League run — and now he furthers his 7 of 11 (64%) EPL Match of the Month/Year mark with his 25* English Premier League Match of the Year at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday!

Frank's 20 of 23 (87%) NHL Game of the Month/Year Playoff run kept up after DELIVERING their 25* NHL Atlantic Division Game of the Year on Montreal at +110 in that Game Seven on Monday! Frank’s 13-0-1 NHL run improves his 24 of 28 (86%) NHL playoff mark with featured 25*/20*/10* plays that fuels his longer-running 33 of 45 (73%) NHL featured plays clip — and now he furthers his 11 of 13 (85%) NHL playoff sides run of underdogs and favorites priced up to -150 with his 25* NHL Western Conference Game of the Year for the Colorado-Vegas money-line side winner on ESPN at 8:10 PM ET! Does Frank think that the Avalanche bounce back — or do the Golden Knights have firm control of this series? DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Newcastle United (200097) with the goal-line versus Fulham (200098). THE SITUATION: Newcastle United (W14-D7-L16) comes off a 3-1 win at home against West Ham United in the English Premier League last Sunday. Fulham (W11-D14-L12) ended a two-match losing streak with a 1-1 draw at Wolverhampton on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE NEWCASTLE UNITED WITH THE GOAL-LINE: These are two EPL squads moving in the opposite direction, despite both having 49 points in league action. The Magpies reached the Round of 16 in the Champions League this season and pulled out a 1-1 draw in their first leg with Barcelona in March. But they got crushed on the road in the second leg by a 7-2 score, which triggered a five-match losing streak across all competitions. Newcastle United achieved a nice accomplishment by qualifying for the Champions League last season — but losing forward Alexander Isak to Liverpool in the transfer market last fall took away one of their best players for this year’s campaign. EPL sides outside the big six are challenged by European competition because they tend to lack the budget to fortify their bench with the quality necessary to sustain multi-match weekly schedules. But the Magpies have started playing better now that their European soccer commitments are done, as they are unbeaten in their last three matches with two victories. They have scored seven goals and only given up three goals in that stretch. The losing streak put Howe’s future in jeopardy — but the players have rallied around him. Currently in 11th place due to their goal differential, Newcastle has the opportunity to finish in the top half of the table with a victory, which will go a long way to sustain momentum with their fan base. Howe appreciates that this dynamic is important. He said after the win against the Hammers: “It was really important we didn’t end on a negative. I want to produce a team that the supporters really identify with, that they love coming to see. We’ve pretty much been that, although there have been times this season where we’ve dropped below that. The big thing is for the supporters to love the players and the players to love the supporters … The connection with the supporters was really strong and that gives me real hope for the future because that is number one. I’m very grateful, and it’s never taken for granted because we know this season’s been a challenge.” Striker William Oscula was signed as a potential replacement for Isak in the fall — and he is finding a rhythm with five goals in his last six EPL matches. The Magpies have a W4-D5-L9 record on the road in the EPL, but their 17 points away from home were below their 21.43 expected points based on expected Goals (xG) data. Newcastle beat Chelsea and Tottenham on the road in the EPL earlier this season. Fulham is limping down the homestretch with only two goals in their last six matches — and they have blanked in seven of their last 10 matches. The Cottagers have only won once in their last six EPL matches. Their key defenseman, Joachim Andersen, is suspended for this match. In 13th place on the EPL table, they have nothing to play for in this match — and even building momentum for next season is not an immediate goal. Manager Marco Silva appears to be overseeing his last match with the club, with rumors abound that he is set to sign a new contract to take over at Benfica. On paper, Fulham has a W10-D2-L6 record in the EPL when playing at home at Craven Cottage — but the deeper metrics suggest they have overachieved. While they have 32 points at home this season, their expected points drop to 26.38. They have scored 28 times at home, but their eG is 26.93. They have surrendered 20 goals at home in the EPL this season — but their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) rises to 24.15. In their last five matches at home across all competitions, they have lost three times with only four goals scored. 

FINAL TAKE: The Magpies have beaten the Cottagers twice already this season. In the reverse fixture in the EPL on October 25th, Newcastle won by a 2-1 score. They then followed that up with another 2-1 victory against Fulham in the quarterfinals of the EFL Cup on December 17th. The Cottagers look to be on the proverbial beach playing for a lame duck manager. Newcastle is closing strong and playing for the future of their manager. 25* English Premier League Match of the Year with Newcastle United (200097) with the goal-line versus Fulham (200098). Best of luck for us — Frank.