Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR WEDNESDAY, 10/7:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Wednesday is with the Los Angeles Dodgers with the money-line versus the Atlanta Braves listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Tyler Mahle. Los Angeles (101-63) took a 2-1 lead in this best-of-five series with their 3-1 win on the road against the Braves on Tuesday. The Dodgers have won 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They have also won 7 of their last 8 games on the road. Atlanta (97-70) has lost 21 of their last 31 games at home after a game where they did not score or allow more than three runs. The Braves have also lost 5 of their last 8 games at home. Take the Los Angeles Dodgers with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank has been featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016. More substance, less hype. Evidence, not vibes. Careful. Thorough. Genuine. His reports document his professionalism.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports improved their 35 of 55 (64%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after CA$HING their 25* Divisional Series Game of the Year on San Diego last night! Frank is on a 15 of 25 (60%) MLB run and a 22 of 30 (73%) MLB TOTALS TEAR — and now he furthers his 6 of 9 (67%) MLB Game of the Year mark and his 18 of 24 (75%) MLB Game of the Month/Year Over-Under run with his 25* MLB Divisional Series Total of the Year for Wednesday! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 6:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (939) and the Atlanta Braves (940) in Game Four of their National League Division Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (101-63) took a 2-1 lead in this best-of-five series with their 3-1 victory on the road against the Braves yesterday. Atlanta (97-70) hopes to stave off elimination and force a decisive fifth game on Friday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have not given up more than three runs in five straight contests. The Under is 6-0-1 in Los Angeles’ last 7 games after winning their last game — and they have played 29 of their last 47 games on the road Under the  Total after winning their last contest. They stay on the road where the Under is 5-0-3 in their last 8 contests — and they have played 24 of their last 39 road games Under the Total when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Additionally, the Dodgers have played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range, including 14 of those 18 games played on the road. They have also played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record, including 11 of those 17 games played on the road. They give the ball to Tyler Glasgow, who has a 5-2 record along with a 3.53 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 13 starts after being injured for much of the season. The deeper sabermetrics are very bullish. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 2.95 and 2.89. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding-independent data, sits at 2.86. The right-hander has been more effective on the road, where he owns a 2.84 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP in seven starts. In his 21 1/3 innings in last year’s postseason, he posted a 1.69 ERA. He faces a Braves team that ranks ninth in MLB this season in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — but they have dipped to 15th in both those categories since September 1st. Atlanta has not scored more than three runs in four of their last five games, along with eight of their last 12 contests. The Braves have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. The Under is also 21-11-2 in Atlanta’s last 34 games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Tyler Mahle, who had a 7-10 record along with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 27 starts. Since being acquired by the Braves, he has registered a 4-1 record along with a 1.99 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in nine starts, with his success coming from increasing his reliance on his splitter. He has done his best work at home this season, where he enjoys a 2.74 ERA along with a 1.07 WHIP in 13 starts. In his previous appearance in the playoffs this season, he held Philadelphia to just six hits and one earned run in seven innings last Wednesday. He also induced ground balls in 62% of the batted balls against him. The Dodgers may lead MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — but they drop to a mediocre 13th in both those categories since August 1st. 

FINAL TAKE: Don’t underestimate the impact of the sunset at 7:13 PM ET tonight on hitters' sightlines for this game. There is a reason that Atlanta throws out the first pitch before 2:00 PM ET for day games or after 7:00 PM ET for night games. There are going to be shadows for the first hour of this game, which will not help the batters pick up on the baseball. As it is, these two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings against each other Under the Total. 25* MLB Divisional Series Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (939) and the Atlanta Braves (940). Best of luck for us — Frank.