Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 10/3:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Thursday is with Sam Houston State minus the points versus UTEP. Sam Houston State (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 40-389 upset win against Texas State as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Bearkats have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. UTEP (0-4) lost their fourth game in a row after a 27-17 loss at Colorado State as a 9-point underdog back on September 21st. The Miners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games in the first half of the season. Take Sam Houston State minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 14 of 19 (74%) NFL Prime-Time run (even after getting it wrong on Monday) to fuel a 167 of 270 (62%) NFL Prime-Time mark! Frank already has SEVEN NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS this season — he has 29 PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since last season and 49 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the ’22 season! Frank is on an 8 of 11 (73%) FOOTBALL TOTALS TEAR — and now he furthers his 77 of 124 (62%) NFL Totals run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays with his 25* NFC South Total of the Month for the Tampa Bay-Atlanta O/U winner on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank owns a 25 of 40 (63%) NFL mark with featured plays — and now he furthers his 13 of 21 (62%) NFL sides run with featured plays with the Tampa Bay-Atlanta ATS winner! CA$H-IN Frank’s Thursday Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL!

Frank DELIVERED his 25* MLB NL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with the NY Mets-Milwaukee Over last night to further his 5 of 7 (71%) MLB run with featured plays! Now Frank furthers his 86 of 143 (60%) All-Sports run with featured plays with his 25* MLB Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year for tonight’s NY Mets-Milwaukee money-line side winner on ESPN at 7:08 PM ET! DON’T MISS IT!

At 7:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (930) versus the New York Mets (929) listing both starting pitchers Tobias Myers and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (94-70) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 5-3 victory at home against the Mets to force this decisive third game in this best-of-three series. New York (90-74) has lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Brewers are tough to beat at home — they have won 34 of their last 53 games at home when listed as a -110 or higher money-line favorite. They have also won 19 of their last 29 home games when listed as a favorite in the -125 to -175 price range. They send out Myers who has a 9-6 record along with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. The rookie right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.86 ERA along with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in 13 games (12 starts) as opposed to his 3.15 ERA along with a 1.33 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .271 in 14 games (13 starts) on the road. Myers is very steady relying primarily on his slider and change-up — he has not allowed more than two earned runs in 12 of his last 14 starts. In his last 20 starts going back to June, he sports a 2.42 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. His last outing was against this Mets team where he only allowed one hit and no earned runs in four innings of work. The Brewers have won 6 of their last 8 home games when he is on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Myers faces a Mets team that ranks 29th in MLB since September 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. He will be supported by an outstanding bullpen -- led by closer Devin Williams --that has a 3.13 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season. In the last seven games, the Milwaukee bullpen has a 2.23 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP with three saves and no blown saves. New York, on the other hand, has a tired bullpen that has thrown 11 1/3 innings since Monday given their doubleheader with Atlanta. In their last seven games, they have not registered a save while blowing two saves after Phil Maton gave up four hits and three earned runs in the bottom of the eighth inning last night when the Mets blew a 3-2 lead. Their bullpen has a 5.91 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in their last seven games. New York has lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have lost 28 of their last 45 road games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Quintana who has a 10-10 record along with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 31 starts. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.49. He gave up five hits and two earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against this Brewers club. He has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.64 ERA along with a 1.21 WHIP and a .232 opponent’s batting average in 15 starts as opposed to his 3.86 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .241 in 16 starts on the road. The Mets have lost 6 of their 8 road games this season with Quintana on the mound listed as a +/- 125 price range. Quintanta’s teams have also lost 6 of their 8 playoff games when he makes the start. He faces a Brewers team that ranks fourth and seventh in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has won 22 of their last 36 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 52 of their last 90 games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. 25* MLB Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year is with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (930) versus the New York Mets (929) listing both starting pitchers Tobias Myers and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (302). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) comes off a 33-16 upset win at home against Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Atlanta (2-2) evened their record at .500 with a 26-24 win at home against New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta scored two defensive touchdowns from a fumble recovering in the end zone in the first quarter and later from a 47-yard interception returned for a touchdown. The Falcons offense only accounted for three field goals. They only gained 315 yards in that game — and they are generating just 309.3 YPG this season which has resulted in 18.8 PPG. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is struggling as he attempts to recover from his ACL injury last year. His lack of mobility is a significant problem — he leads the NFL by throwing 94% of his passes inside the tackle box in the pocket. While he is completing 70.9% of his passes when not facing additional rushers, his completion percentage drops to 48.5% when blitzed. Additionally, he ranks 30th of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks this season in Success Rate when blitzed. Now here comes the Todd Bowles Tampa Bay defense that blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by six points or less. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored by up to seven points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games between Weeks Five and Nine. The Buccaneers held the Eagles' offense to just 227 yards last week. They are holding their opponents to just 335.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.5 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after a straight-up victory. Now after completing a two-game home stand, they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games against fellow NFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) and the Atlanta Falcons (302). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) comes off a 33-16 upset win at home against Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Atlanta (2-2) evened their record at .500 with a 26-24 win at home against New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers held the Eagles' offense to just 227 yards last week. They are holding their opponents to just 335.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.5 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. The Buccaneers' offense is only generating 319.0 YPG — and they are without right tackle Luke Goedeke to injury and left tackle Tristan Wirfs was limited in practice this week. As it is, the Tampa Bay rushing attack ranks 24th in DVOA using the Football Outsiders metrics — and their running backs are getting hit behind the line of scrimmage at the sixth-highest rate in the league. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total in that 42.5-49 point range. They have played 6 straight Unders after playing their last two games at home. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in October. Atlanta scored two defensive touchdowns from a fumble recovering in the end zone in the first quarter and later from a 47-yard interception returned for a touchdown. The Falcons offense only accounted for three field goals. They only gained 315 yards in that game — and they are generating just 309.3 YPG this season which has resulted in 18.8 PPG. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is struggling as he attempts to recover from his ACL injury last year. His lack of mobility is a significant problem — he leads the NFL by throwing 94% of his passes inside the tackle box in the pocket. While he is completing 70.9% of his passes when not facing additional rushers, his completion percentage drops to 48.5% when blitzed. Additionally, he ranks 30th of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks this season in Success Rate when blitzed. Now here comes the Todd Bowles Tampa Bay defense that blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in October.

FINAL TAKE: The Falcons have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Buccaneers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) and the Atlanta Falcons (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.