Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 7/14:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Tuesday is with Spain with the goal-line versus France in the semifinals in the World Cup. Spain (W5-D1-L0) presents nice value for the smattering of +0.25 goal-lines out there. Being able to cash if either they win or force extra-time is the best side play out there. Even settling for La Roja as a pick ‘em is solid given the plus-money payout if they win this match in regulation time. Spain seems to be discounted in this match despite their being the defending 2024 European Championship. They overwhelmed Les Bleus defense in the semifinals of that tournament by a 5-4 score. The biggest weakness of this France side is their fullbacks, Jules Kounde and Lucas Digne. This presents a bad matchup for Les Bleus since it will be Lamine Yamal and the healthy-again Nico Williams attacking on the wings. La Roja’s victory against Portugal is the best result of either side in this tournament. France caught a major break in their quarterfinals match against  Morocco since Ismael Saibari was out with a hamstring injury. Play Spain with the goal-line. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer is on a 20 of 31 (65%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays — and he continues his fifth Men’s World Cup on a 10-4-2 (71%) run this summer to fuel a 27 of 43 (63%) World Cup long-term mark! Now Frank furthers his 5 of 7 (71%) TOTALS TEAR in this World Cup with the Spain-France O/U winner on Fox-TV at 3:00 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Spain (225615) and France (225616) in the semifinals of the 2026 World Cup. THE SITUATION: Spain (W5-D1-L0) advanced to the semifinals of the World Cup with their 2-1 victory against Belgium in their quarterfinals match on Friday. France (W6-D0-L0) reached the semifinals with a 2-0 victory against Morocco in their quarterfinals match on Thursday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was France’s 2-1 loss to Spain in the semifinals of the 2024 Euro Championship that compelled manager Didier Deschamps to change his tactics. That international event represented a changing of the guard, with aging players such as Antoine Griezmann, Olivier Giroud, Benjamin Pavard and Kingsley Coman — all part of their 2018 World Cup championship team — were moving on. That same summer, the younger French Olympic team (the Men’s Olympics is mostly a 23-and-under event, with each team getting three exceptions) reached the semifinals of that tournament led by rising stars Michael Olise, Desire Doué, and Manu Kone. Les Bleus were too passive in conceding possession against La Roja in that Euro semifinals. They only took nine shots — and Spain was more than content to tiki-taka their way with short passes to control possession for 58% of that match. In fact, in that entire 2024 Euro, France only scored four goals despite playing six matches in their run to the semifinals. There is a reason that Deschamps has been criticized for years for being too conservative despite all his scoring talent. Their matches that summer were 1-0 victories or scoreless draws before the semifinals. Deschamps vowed to make changes — and they came to fruition in the semifinals of the UEFA Nations League in 2025. After years of being committed to a 4-3-3 formation with three midfielders, which offered defensive stability, Deschamps opened things up with a surprising 4-2-3-1 look with four attackers. It was the first time that he played Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele with Olise and Doue together on the pitch. The defense was shaky adjusting to the new formation — and Les Bleus found themselves trailing by a 5-1 score midway through the second half. But the attack finally sparked — and France scored three goals in a wild 15-minute span in a narrow 5-4 loss. It is that 4-2-3-1 look that Deschamps has relied on winning all six of their World Cup matches this summer — although he has rotated Doue with Bradley Barcola with his embarrassment of riches. Les Bleus may lose this match — but Deschamps is not going to return to the 4-3-3 formation. This 4-2-3-1 look was designed for precisely this match — and that means this is going to be a higher scoring match again. In the 2025 UEFA Nations League semifinals, Deschamps' new tactics successfully thwarted Spain’s possession ambitions as it was his team that controlled the ball for 57% of that match. The French attack is nearly unstoppable. They have scored 16 times in their six matches — and their 14.34 expected Goals (xG) are the most in the tournament. Morocco attempted to slow their quarterfinals match down and control possession — and they did win the possession battle by a 52-48% margin. But after missing a penalty kick in the first half, Mbappe scored in the second half, with Dembele adding a goal soon after. Les Bleus generated six Big Chances (a shot with at least a 35% expected goal probability) against the Atlas Lions — and they have 24 Big Chances in this tournament. The clinical precision of Mbappe and Dembele (the reigning Ballon d’Or winner) is incredible — they are the outliers in the expected goals data that compiles the average scoring chances from every location on the pitch. Twelve months later from that  UEFA Nations League semifinal showdown has provided France the opportunity to get comfortable and fine-tune the new 4-2-3-1 look. They are very dangerous on the counter-attack. Their 32 Direct Attacks (measuring counter-attacks) is already more than what they have generated in each of their last four World Cups. Les Bleus are not only better prepared to seize back possession — but they can score on counter-attacks. But I am not backing France in this contest because I don’t have to -- I respect this Spain side that is unbeaten in their last 36 matches. I respect La Roja enough for me to expect them to score as well. Against Belgium, they had eight shots on target while scoring twice. They have “only” scored 11 goals in their six World Cup matches — but their style is different, with three of their victories being by 1-0 scores. Furthermore, their scoring numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt since Nico Williams has not played much — but he did come on as a substitute in the 79th minute and would have likely played the full 30 minutes of extra time and taken part in the shootout if not for Mikel Merino’s winning goal. La Roja’s scoring attack is at its best when he is racing up and down the wing complementing Mikel Oyarzabal and Lamine Yamal up front. Spain has only conceded that one goal Belgium scored in the quarterfinals — but their ambitious high line has yet to be tested by clinical forwards like they will encounter this afternoon.

FINAL TAKE: The last three matches between these two teams have seen at least three combined goals. Styles make fights — and the 4-2-3-1 look France is now using should ensure plenty of scoring opportunities for both teams. I don’t think nine combined goals is in the cards — but the urgency of this match should push the pace. France is not going to hold back — and I don’t think Spain’s manager Luis de la Fuente thinks he can have his team simply play keep-away given the technical prowess that Les Bleus can offer in an instant’s notice. And the La Roja scoring attack improves when Williams is available. 20* World Cup Spain-France Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the match between Spain (225615) and France (225616). Best of luck for us — Frank.