Dave Price Free Picks & Sports Handicapper Review

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Illinois State +5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Illinois State Redbirds today as 5-point underdogs to the Indiana State Sycamores.  Indiana State got the better of them yesterday with a 73-65 victory as 4.5-point favorites.  Now they are even heavier favorites today in the rematch.  I'll take the more hungry Redbirds to bounce back similar to what they did in their last time in this situation.  After losing to Evansville 48-57 as 5-point dogs, they came back and beat Evansville the next day 73-68 as 5.5-point dogs.  This will only be the 4th home game of the season for the Redbirds so they have played a very difficult schedule with 8 of their previous 11 games on the highway.  Indiana State is just 1-4 SU in its 5 games played away from home.  The Sycamores are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 MVC road games.  Indiana State is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games off an ATS win.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Take Illinois State.

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6* Sunday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Pelicans/Kings OVER 226

The Key: Sacramento has been an OVER bettors' dream.  The Kings are 6-1 OVER in their last 7 games overall.  They have combined with their opponents for 243, 252, 267, 224, 249, 258 and 238 points in those 7 games, respectively.  That's an average of 247.3 PPG and amazingly none of those games went to OT.  This 226-point total is 21.3 points less than they are averaging over their last 7 games.  The Kings are an offensive juggernaut as they have shot 51.6% or better in 4 of their last 6 games.  And they have the worst defense in the NBA in giving up 118.2 PPG per 100 possessions, a full 4.8 PPG worse than the next worst-team.  The Pelicans have yielded 111 points or more in 6 consecutive games coming in.  The OVER is 5-1 in Pelicans last 6 games.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 matchups in this series with 232 or more combined points scored in 6 of those 7 matchups.  Take the OVER.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Memphis -1.5

The Key: This is the perfect situation to back the Memphis Tigers Sunday.  They are rested having last played on December 29th and champing at the bit to get back on the court.  They want to avenge a 49-56 home loss to Tulsa on December 21st as 9.5-point home favorites.  Now this line has been adjusted a full 8 points for home-court advantage with the Tigers only being 1.5-point road favorites in the rematch.  It's too much and it's finally an opportunity to back the Tigers at the right price range after they failed to cover each of their last 6 games ATS.  Tulsa is starting to get a lot of respect after going 6-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall.  The Golden Hurricane finally had their winning streak come to an end with a 53-72 road loss at Wichita State last time out.  Memphis is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off 2 straight games where both teams scored 65 points or less.  The Tigers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games when avenging a loss.  Take Memphis.

6* UCF/Houston AAC *CA$H COW* on UCF +14

The Key: I like the price we're getting on UCF after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games overall.  The Knights will be hungry to get a win here facing a ranked Houston team for a 2nd time this season.  They will also be hungry to avenge their 54-63 loss as 7.5-point home dogs to the Cougars on December 26th.  Now they have adjusted this line a full 6.5 points for home-court advantage which is too much with the Knights coming back as 14-point dogs in the rematch.  The Knights are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Sunday games.  UCF is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games against a team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season.  Take UCF.

6* Bucs/Saints NFC *BAILOUT* on Tampa Bay +3

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs want to avenge their 2 regular season losses to the Saints.  They turned the ball over too often and did not play well at all.  But they have been a completely different team since those first 2 matchups.  The Bucs have won 5 straight and are scoring 35.8 PPG during this streak.  They just put up 507 yards against an elite Washington defense last week.  And you know Tom Brady will make the proper adjustments that will allow their offense to have success against the Saints the 3rd time he faces them here.  The Bucs also get good news with LB Devin White returning from a COVID absence against Washington.  He is their best defensive player with 140 tackles and 18 of those coming for loss, including 9 sacks.  The Bucs will avenge those 2 defeats with an upset victory Sunday night.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* AFC Playoffs Game of the Year on Kansas City Chiefs -10

The Key: Andy Reid has a proven track record of being the best coach in the NFL to back off a bye.  The Chiefs needed a bye as they just seemed to be going through the motions down the stretch.  Now they will turn the switch on and put their best foot forward in the playoffs.  And that will be enough to put away the Cleveland Browns by double-digits.  The Browns had everything go their way against the Steelers by forcing 5 turnovers.  They still gave up 37 points and 553 total yards.  They gave up 47 points to Baltimore and 35 points to Tennessee recently.  The Chiefs will do whatever they want to against this soft Cleveland defense.  And I don't trust Baker Mayfield to be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company.  The Browns are 1-10 ATS int heir last 11 road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent.  Cleveland is 9-26-2 ATS in its last 37 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Kansas City.