Dave Price Free Picks & Sports Handicapper Review

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-120) 

The Key: The Cubs will be hungry for a win today, especially off back-to-back losses, including their 10-4 loss to the White Sox yesterday.  But now the Cubs have the clear edge on the mound tonight and will win this game by 2 runs or more because of it.  Jon Lester is in postseason form.  The left-hander has been terrific in his last 6 starts, going 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA.  Lucas Giolito is 3-6 with a 7.91 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 14 home starts for the White Sox this season.  It’s amazing he’s been able to keep his job in the rotation all season because he has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball.  Lester has been at his best on the road this year, going 10-2 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 road starts.  Lester has won each of his last 2 starts against the White Sox while yielding just 3 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings.  The Cubs are 32-7 in Lester’s last 39 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and they’re winning by 2.5 RPG on average in this spot.  Lester is 56-9 as a favorite of -200 or more lifetime with his teams winning by 3.2 RPG.  Take the Cubs on the Run Line. 

Dave’s Saturday Free Play: 

1* on Purdue +7 

The Key: Purdue is one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  That’s because the Boilermakers are 0-3 when they could easily be 3-0.  Their 3 losses have come by a combined 8 points to the likes of Northwestern, Eastern Michigan and Missouri.  They have played a really tough schedule to this point.  They’ll be prepared to face Boston College now.  BC has only really been tested once this season, and they won 41-34 at Wake Forest, but that was an evenly-played game.  I think Purdue is every bit as good as Wake Forest, if not better.  David Blough through for a school-record 572 yards against Missouri last week.  The Boilermakers certainly have the firepower offensively to keep up with Boston College.  Jeff Brohm is 8-0 ATS all-time as a head coach in home games after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in his previous game.  Take Purdue.

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6* Notre Dame/Wake Forest *CA$H COW* on Wake Forest +7 

The Key: Notre Dame is probably the most overrated team in the country.  The Fighting Irish are 3-0 but could easily be 0-3.  All 3 of their victories have come by 8 points or less, including a 24-16 win over Ball State as 33.5-point favorites and a 22-17 win over Vanderbilt as 13.5-point favorites.  Now the Fighting Irish hit the road for the first time this season against a pesky Wake Forest team that nearly beat Boston College at home last time out, losing 34-41.  And the Demon Deacons have had a couple extra days to prepare for Notre Dame after playing BC last Thursday.  Wake hung tough in a 37-48 loss at Notre Dame as 14.5-point underdogs last season.  They managed 587 total yards against the Notre Dame defense in the loss.  The Demon Deacons once again have an explosive offense this season that is averaging 36 PPG and 547 YPG on the year.  The Demon Deacons are 11-3 ATS as underdogs over the last 3 seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 1-8 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 75% of their games over the last 3 years.  They are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record overall.  Take Wake Forest. 

6* Kansas/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Baylor -7.5 

The Key: I love the price we are getting with the Baylor Bears at home today against the Kansas Jayhawks.  Baylor is coming off an upset home loss to Duke, while Kansas is coming off back-to-back upset wins over Central Michigan and Rutgers.  That’s why we are getting the Bears so cheap today.  Baylor went into Kansas and won 38-9 last year.  And the Bears are much better this season than they were a year ago.  Baylor is now 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings, winning by 29, 42, 59, 46, 45 and 27 points, respectively.  Expect another blowout win in the Bears’ favor here Saturday.  Take Baylor. 

6* TCU/Texas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas +3.5 

The Key: The Texas Longhorns are ready to take the next step this season.  They beat USC 37-14 at home last week and now they host TCU for their Big 12 opener looking to make a statement.  They get the Horned Frogs at a great time, too.  TCU will still be licking its wounds from a tough loss to Ohio State last week.  I love backing Texas head coach Tom Herman in the underdog role.  He has gone 21-1 ATS as an underdog lifetime as a head coach or an assistant coach in his 4 different stops.  Take Texas. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *BLOWOUT* on Iowa State -20 

The Key: Akron is coming off a huge upset win over Northwestern as 21-point underdogs last week.  They looked left for dead trailing 21-3 at halftime.  But then the craziness happened.  The Zips got 3 defensive touchdowns in the 2nd half and won 39-34.  Now they’re in a big letdown spot here against a hungry Iowa State team that is looking for its first win.  The Cyclones have played a brutal early schedule losing on the road at Iowa and at home to Oklahoma as dogs.  They will get right here against an Akron team they beat 41-14 on the road last season.  The Cyclones should have no problem winning this game by 3 touchdowns or more.  Iowa State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games.  The Cyclones are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC opponents.  Akron is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games off an upset win as a double-digit underdog.  The Zips are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a road win.  Take Iowa State. 

7* ACC Game of the Month on Clemson -16 

The Key: The Clemson Tigers aren’t laying enough points to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.  That’s largely due to the fact that they are 0-3 ATS on the season, costing bettors money up to this point.  But I think the price is right to back them now here in a game they should win by 3 touchdowns and finally cash in a winning ticket.  They have owned Georgia Tech in recent seasons, holding them to a combined 17 points in the last 2 meetings.  They have figured out how to stop the triple-option, and they are coming off a dominant 38-7 win over Georgia Southern and their triple-option last week, giving them great preparation for this game Saturday.  The Tigers have held the Yellow Jackets to just 121 yards per game and 2.9 yards per rush on the ground in their last 3 meetings with them.  Georgia Tech lost 1,000-yard rusher KirVonte Benson a few weeks back against USF, and it’s no wonder they are coming off back-to-back losses as they fell to Pitt last week as well.  This should be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 31-7 victory Saturday, if not worse.  Take Clemson.