Jim Feist Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

Why should the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks go OVER in Game 3 of the NBA Finals tonight? For starters, after Game 1 and Game 2, the over-adjusts lower. Game 2 ended with a final score of 105-104, which stayed UNDER the majority of posted totals but still indicated both teams can manufacture offense late in a close Finals environment.

The series heads to Madison Square Garden with New York up 2-0, and MSG will certainly help juice the Knicks offense in their first NBA Finals home game since 1999.

Brunson is clearly New York’s closer at this point, but Karl-Anthony Towns led the team with 21 points and 13 rebounds in Game 2, which allows the Knicks another proven scoring outlet inside the paint and on the offensive glass. Brunson, Towns, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges cooking early means we could see the Knicks push toward the 110s.

0-2 is not a sustainable record for the Spurs, so they cannot afford another game where their offense slows down late. Victor Wembanyama must be aggressive early and often. Game 2 ended with the Spurs on the final possession after Wembanyama had a turnover and then airballed the potential game winner, so San Antonio was right in the mix despite not having a great offensive night. Look for faster pace, more attacks at the rim and late-game foul shots in Game 3.

My preferred over scenario is a competitive game where New York’s home atmosphere leads to a quicker pace, San Antonio responds with Wemby and De’Aaron Fox attacking early and often, and the fourth quarter is elongated by fouls. If both teams climb into the low 110s, this total clears.

Jim's Play: 505. Spurs/Knicks OVER

Indiana comes in at 5-5 while Washington is 4-5. This doesn’t seem like a game where Indiana should be trusted to go on the road and win comfortably. Washington has the added benefit of already beating Indiana this season. The Mystics went on the road to take care of business 104-102 in Indianapolis. That matters because Washington has already proven they can score against this Fever defense and isn’t shaken by the Caitlin Clark show.

This game flips back to Washington where the Mystics get the home floor and opportunity to take care of business to get to .500. Indiana is dangerous because Clark can explode for 30 on any given night, but they’ve been wildly inconsistent this season. They’re losers of three of four games and Clark has been shooting poorly lately. She’s averaging 12.3 points on just 28% shooting from the field over her last four contests. Washington can keep this game close by making her work, forcing tough threes, and keeping Indiana out of transition.

Add in some injury report advantages for Washington and I’m leaning Mystics. Washington had no injuries to report for this game, while Indiana continues to get injury question marks next to their players names. Indiana will be without Miller and Fowles again, and Jaxon just joined their injury report Sunday evening. A clean rotation could be huge for Washington because they’ll need all hands on deck to bring fresh legs, defensive pressure and bench scoring to keep them inside the number in a game this short.

Attack early, dictate pace, and make Indiana play half court defense. If Washington can limit turnovers and get balanced scoring they have a great shot to cover and even win outright.

Jim's Play: 608. Was Mystics

The starting pitching matchup is why you should side with the Philadelphia Phillies to cover the -1.5 run line Monday night against the Toronto Blue Jays. Cristopher Sanchez takes the bump for Philadelphia and he is 7-2 with a minuscule 1.46 ERA. Toronto will counter with Patrick Corbin who enters with a 2-2 record and a 3.98 ERA. Sanchez is the clear-cut favorite to have his team win this one from the get-go.

Philadelphia also just posted a win on Sunday, beating Chicago 9-5 while Toronto escaped Baltimore with a late 6-4 victory. Philadelphia has enough offense with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Alec Bohm to jump on Corbin early and if they build a lead, Sanchez can make an game short.

Jim's Play: 913. Phillies -1.5 Runs

The Milwaukee Brewers should have the edge to cover -1.5 runs on Monday as they hold two huge advantages in starting pitching and overall team profile.

The Brewers get Kyle Harrison on the mound Monday and Harrison has been dynamite this season at 7-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 63.2 innings of work. Oakland Athletics have Jeffrey Springs making the start and Springs is 3-6 with a 4.37 ERA, so it’s not close when comparing who has the clearer path to controlling the game’s first half.

It doesn’t stop there for Milwaukee’s side of the matchup, the Brewers enter Monday at 40-23 atop the NL Central while Oakland sits at 31-34 playing below .500 ball. Milwaukee has also been one of baseball’s best run prevention teams ranking third in team ERA while Oakland’s pitching staff has really struggled posting a 4.54 ERA as a staff. That last part matters when you are buying into a run line bet as it shows Milwaukee should be able to both build a lead and protect it late.

Milwaukee’s offense gives them enough upside to hit their run line as well. The Brewers offense ranks top-5 in run production while their lineup is deep and balanced led by hitters such as Brice Turang, Christian Yelich and Jake Bauers. The key against Springs is to get traffic on the basepaths early, force Oakland to use its bullpen and let Harrison work with a lead.

Oakland has plenty of weapons to win this game and cover their run line as well but the Athletics injury woes continue to mount. Oakland is still dangerous, no doubt about it, but they are running into a Brewers team that has the edge in starting pitching, records, pitching depth and late-game relievers. If Harrison can provide Milwaukee with six solid innings they have a great chance to win this game by multiple runs.

Jim's Play: 915. Brewers -1.5 Runs

Starting pitching projects to be excellent for Seattle, who will send Emerson Hancock to the hill. Hancock boasts a 4-2 record with a 2.80 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 70 strikeouts coming into Monday’s tilt. Baltimore is expected to start Chris Bassitt who owns a 4-4 record along with a 5.27 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. However, at this time Baltimore could go with a different pitcher than Bassitt. I'm basing my pick on this game basedon the Mariners and I do not car who Baltimore starts as I'll be on he Action for this play.

Baltimore may have some power bats, but Seattle simply has the better match up on paper. Bassitt has given up way too much traffic to opposing hitters and that won’t bode well against Seattle’s deep lineup highlighted by Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodríguez and Luke Raley.

Seattle is riding somewhat better form too. They are 34-32 compared to Baltimore’s 31-35 and Seattle just enjoyed a season high eight-game winning streak before falling in a hard-fought walk-off defeat to Detroit on Sunday. It was a tough loss for Seattle but this game sets up perfectly as a bounce-back spot against a team when they have the better starter and Baltimore’s pitching staff could be had again.

You can never count out Baltimore’s power with Pete Alonso mixed in with some other solid bats, but Baltimore is just hard to trust with Bassitt’s high WHIP and iffy command. Seattle should be able to attack him if Hancock can keep the ball in the park and give Seattle five or six good innings of work.  Even if Bassitt doesn't go today for the O's, I'll still be on Seattle here to start the week.

Jim's Play: 905. Mariners