Jim Feist Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

Minnesota takes on Phoenix in an afternoon contest in the WNBA on Wednesday, July 16, 2025.

Minnesota hasn’t been scoring freely at home, where they are 8-0 SU and ATS and the total has gone under in 5 of their last 7 at Target Center (and 5 of 7 against Phoenix for that matter). Phoenix has its moments offensively, but have also not been efficient on the road (especially against this particular Minnesota team, who is the only one they’ve beaten recently, in a 79–71 game that didn’t help the total).

You have two teams with strong defensive reputations: Minnesota yields ~75 points per game at home, while Phoenix gives up ~79.5 overall. Pace will not be a factor: this is two teams that want to control tempo, run their sets and limit transition opportunities. Minnesota is decent enough in the half-court to keep the offense at bay, as is Phoenix, who get a lot of their offense on their designed possessions anyway. When you couple this with the Mercury contesting 3-pointers and the Lynx defending the line very well, you get a perfect set-up for a grind-it-out, low-scoring affair.

Two teams that control the pace of the game, two teams that are excellent at home/away defensively, two teams with a trend of unders in this matchup. It’s difficult to see this game coming away with a total much over 80 by either team. This looks like a 76–70 or 78–72 kind of game to me at the end of the day, where the under squeaks through.

Jim's Play: 607. Mercury/Lynx UNDER 158

That the Minnesota Lynx are heavy favorites is understandable. They’re the best team in the WNBA with a 19-4 record and a +9.6 scoring margin, and they’re 1st in points scored (84.9) and 2nd in points allowed (75.3) . The problem for the smart money is that the Mercury aren’t chopped liver. Phoenix is 15-6 and 13-8 ATS, and they’ve covered 9 of their last 10 games, including 9 times when listed at +8.5 points.

There are some other numbers that further validate this play. For starters, there’s the head-to-head split. The Mercury won their last meeting, 79–71 in Phoenix, and Minnesota has won 8 of the last 10 meetings overall. However, even when the Mercury lose, it’s often close. The underlying efficiency numbers say the Lynx should be able to win here, but that’s exactly the point. Phoenix can and likely will cover the spread. Phoenix is also coming off a three-game win streak, and they just narrowly escaped with a 78-77 win in Golden State on Monday.

Minnesota, of course, is a good team. But they don’t exactly obliterate their opponents on a regular enough basis that +8.5 ceases to be valuable. The Lynx have failed to cover -8.5 in 3 of their last 5 at home and in 11 of their last 20 such games. Add it all up, the Mercury’s propensity to keep games close, Minnesota’s record against Phoenix, and the Lynx’s recent inability to cover deep home spreads - and this looks like a smart bet despite an eventual Lynx win.

Jim's Play: Take: 607. Phx Mercury