Jimmy Boyd in 
One of the first rules of thumb that you learn when handicapping the NFL, is to shop for the best odds. Having multiple online sportsbooks at your disposal will increase your chances of profiting.
When it comes to wagering on the spread in football, most are familiar with the key numbers to look for. For those that don’t know, your top 3 are 3, 7 and 10. These are the most likely margin’s of victory. Here’s it’s easy to see the significance of getting -2.5 instead of -3.5.
What about the over/under? Do you know what the most common output is for two teams? You might be able to throw a guess out there, but chances are you have no idea. That’s okay. You won’t be lacking the knowledge for long.
Handicapping Pro Football Over/Under Lines: Most Frequent Final Scores
I’ve gone back over every game dating back to the start of the 2000 season and compiled the data: 7,017 games through the 2025 season, playoffs included.
As it turns out, there’s no single answer anymore. 41 and 51 have each landed in 3.82% of all matchups during this stretch, and 37 is one game behind at 3.81%.
For those of you struggling to picture 41 as one of the most common totals, just think of the different ways to get there. The most common being 24-17, 31-10, 27-14 and 34-7.
It turns out the ability to predict if a game will reach 42 points is a key to picking the correct side of a total. Dating back to 2000, all matchups that had 41 or fewer points scored went UNDER a staggering 93.2% (2874-209-38). At the same time, all contests that featured 42 or more points went OVER at an 83.8% (3210-619-67) clip.
Given how the game has changed to favor offenses and more teams passing the ball, I wanted to see how things changed if we only looked at the last 5 years (2021 through 2025).
It turns out quite a bit. The more recent results show 37 (4.07%), 51 (4.00%) and 44 (3.93%) as the top 3. 41 is still a top figure, but it’s 5th on that list at 3.51%. You can see for yourself by tapping the “Last 5 seasons” heading in the table to sort by it.
You can use this data to take advantage of lines that have moved across an important number or when teasing NFL totals to make sure you are crossing as high of percentage of numbers as possible.
Key Numbers for Betting NFL Totals
Combined final score of both teams, every game since 2000 and the last five seasons. In red: a top ten total in either. Tap a heading to sort; tap it again for the most common first.
| Total | Games since 2000 | % of games | Last 5 seasons | % of games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 268 | 3.82% | 57 | 4.00% |
| 41 | 268 | 3.82% | 50 | 3.51% |
| 37 | 267 | 3.81% | 58 | 4.07% |
| 44 | 264 | 3.76% | 56 | 3.93% |
| 43 | 245 | 3.49% | 54 | 3.79% |
| 40 | 236 | 3.36% | 43 | 3.02% |
| 47 | 224 | 3.19% | 50 | 3.51% |
| 33 | 211 | 3.01% | 38 | 2.67% |
| 48 | 198 | 2.82% | 43 | 3.02% |
| 30 | 182 | 2.59% | 36 | 2.53% |
| 45 | 178 | 2.54% | 36 | 2.53% |
| 34 | 176 | 2.51% | 31 | 2.18% |
| 55 | 170 | 2.42% | 22 | 1.54% |
| 36 | 164 | 2.34% | 42 | 2.95% |
| 50 | 160 | 2.28% | 26 | 1.83% |
| 52 | 149 | 2.12% | 29 | 2.04% |
| 38 | 147 | 2.09% | 29 | 2.04% |
| 27 | 146 | 2.08% | 21 | 1.47% |
| 46 | 141 | 2.01% | 37 | 2.60% |
| 39 | 141 | 2.01% | 32 | 2.25% |
| 54 | 141 | 2.01% | 28 | 1.97% |
| 49 | 140 | 2.00% | 33 | 2.32% |
| 57 | 138 | 1.97% | 32 | 2.25% |
| 58 | 135 | 1.92% | 35 | 2.46% |
| 23 | 127 | 1.81% | 13 | 0.91% |
| 29 | 119 | 1.70% | 24 | 1.69% |
| 31 | 117 | 1.67% | 20 | 1.40% |
| 35 | 115 | 1.64% | 29 | 2.04% |
| 26 | 110 | 1.57% | 21 | 1.47% |
| 42 | 105 | 1.50% | 26 | 1.83% |
| 65 | 102 | 1.45% | 21 | 1.47% |
| 53 | 99 | 1.41% | 19 | 1.33% |
| 32 | 98 | 1.40% | 25 | 1.76% |
| 61 | 97 | 1.38% | 17 | 1.19% |
| 59 | 95 | 1.35% | 20 | 1.40% |
| 62 | 90 | 1.28% | 15 | 1.05% |
| 63 | 63 | 0.90% | 17 | 1.19% |
| 69 | 63 | 0.90% | 6 | 0.42% |
| 56 | 61 | 0.87% | 14 | 0.98% |
| 64 | 61 | 0.87% | 13 | 0.91% |
| 66 | 60 | 0.86% | 12 | 0.84% |
| 24 | 58 | 0.83% | 10 | 0.70% |
| 28 | 54 | 0.77% | 12 | 0.84% |
| 60 | 53 | 0.76% | 22 | 1.54% |
| 22 | 53 | 0.76% | 7 | 0.49% |
| 19 | 52 | 0.74% | 10 | 0.70% |
| 16 | 51 | 0.73% | 6 | 0.42% |
| 25 | 49 | 0.70% | 12 | 0.84% |
| 68 | 45 | 0.64% | 11 | 0.77% |
| 71 | 43 | 0.61% | 9 | 0.63% |
| 20 | 43 | 0.61% | 5 | 0.35% |
| 73 | 40 | 0.57% | 9 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 35 | 0.50% | 5 | 0.35% |
| 67 | 32 | 0.46% | 7 | 0.49% |
| 17 | 27 | 0.38% | 7 | 0.49% |
| 75 | 23 | 0.33% | 7 | 0.49% |
| 72 | 23 | 0.33% | 3 | 0.21% |
| 13 | 23 | 0.33% | 2 | 0.14% |
| 70 | 22 | 0.31% | 4 | 0.28% |
| 74 | 20 | 0.29% | 7 | 0.49% |
| 76 | 19 | 0.27% | 5 | 0.35% |
| 80 | 19 | 0.27% | 5 | 0.35% |
| 15 | 18 | 0.26% | 1 | 0.07% |
| 77 | 17 | 0.24% | 4 | 0.28% |
| 78 | 16 | 0.23% | 6 | 0.42% |
| 79 | 16 | 0.23% | 2 | 0.14% |
| 9 | 10 | 0.14% | 3 | 0.21% |
| 82 | 8 | 0.11% | 2 | 0.14% |
| 12 | 8 | 0.11% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 85 | 8 | 0.11% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 89 | 6 | 0.09% | 2 | 0.14% |
| 83 | 6 | 0.09% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 87 | 6 | 0.09% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 90 | 4 | 0.06% | 2 | 0.14% |
| 6 | 4 | 0.06% | 1 | 0.07% |
| 18 | 4 | 0.06% | 1 | 0.07% |
| 86 | 4 | 0.06% | 1 | 0.07% |
| 10 | 4 | 0.06% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 81 | 3 | 0.04% | 1 | 0.07% |
| 84 | 3 | 0.04% | 1 | 0.07% |
| 88 | 3 | 0.04% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 3 | 2 | 0.03% | 1 | 0.07% |
| 96 | 2 | 0.03% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 93 | 1 | 0.01% | 1 | 0.07% |
| 8 | 1 | 0.01% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 14 | 1 | 0.01% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 91 | 1 | 0.01% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 94 | 1 | 0.01% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 95 | 1 | 0.01% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 99 | 1 | 0.01% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 101 | 1 | 0.01% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 105 | 1 | 0.01% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 106 | 1 | 0.01% | 0 | 0.00% |
The 2026 season so far (through Week 5, 79 games): the most common totals are 40 (6 games), 34 (4 games) and 33 (3 games). The table covers 2000 through 2025; this line updates every week of the season.
