What is the home field edge really worth in the NFL? You’ve probably heard many different answers from many different sources. If you’re looking for just one number to tell you how much the spreads adjust for the home field edge, that number is about 2.7 points, which is the average point adjustment accounting for all teams since 1980.
However, all good NFL handicappers know that there is a different number for every team, meaning there is no one magic number that can be used.
When you hear about the toughest places in the league to play you probably think of the noise of Arrowhead and Century Link helping the Chiefs and the Seahawks.
You might think weather is a big factor that favors the Patriots when they play in Gillette Stadium or the Packers when they are hosting at Lambeau Field.
However, the way I factor the upper hand for home field is how big of a difference it makes to a team’s scoring average when they play home or away. I took a look at every regular season NFL game since 1980 to see just what kind of advantage each team actually has in terms of scoring margin on the road compared to scoring margin at home.
The results are in the table below. The number in the far right column is the number of points that each team “gains” by playing at home versus playing on a neutral field.
The True Home Field Advantage listed below for each team tells us how much better each team is at home versus on the road. There are a few things to keep in mind with these numbers.
First, you will find some very good teams with a low True Home Field Advantage. This doesn’t mean those teams are bad at home, it just means they play just as well on the road, so their home field advantage isn’t as significant.
Conversely, you see a team like the Cardinals near the top of this list. The Cardinals aren’t a great home team, however, they are significantly better at home compared to on the road, so their home field obviously has a pretty big impact on their games.
Each NFL Team’s Home Field Edge
|Team||Home Record||Home Margin||Road Record||Road Margin||True Advantage|