Opening day is one of the most exciting days in sports. But does the excitement of a new season and the big crowds help the home team? Or, does it inspire the road team to feed off the energy in the stadium and play over their heads?
I have went back and looked at every opening day since 2004 and found some interesting results. There is definitely a pattern that will make you want to circle opening day on your calendar every year. Hopefully, this can get your MLB betting off to a fast start.
Over the last 12 years, home teams that are favored have gone 76-48 on opening day. The average line on those games was -149 for a return on investment (ROI) of 3.7%.
Even better, if you took the -1.5 run line you would have gone 41-51, but at an average line of +147. That ROI would have been +8.1%.
Not a bad return for blindly taking home favorites on opening day.
Now let’s get rid of the extremes. Favorites of under -120 really aren’t favored by much. Those teams are essentially a coin flip over their opponents.
On the other side, favorites of more than -200 are laying too much juice for most people to stomach.
If we get rid of those teams the record and return improves dramatically to 55-22. The average line is -151 but the ROI is a whopping 19%!
Again, the run line outpaces the money line with a 31-29 record, an average line of +147 and a ROI of 27%!
Breaking things down by league gives us an even better result. The National League hasn’t been as good, checking in at 23-14 with an average line of -155.
But, the American League is another story. The AL home favorites are 32-8 for a return of 34% on opening day. Taking the run line has given bettors a 19-14 record with a ROI of 41%.
So, this year when you get ready to throw down your first baseball wager keep this strategy in mind. By taking AL home favorites on opening day you’ll likely find yourself beating the odds. Starting a season out in the black is always a good thing.
Mr. East has researched thousands of similar situations and that is why he is one of our favorite baseball handicappers. If you don’t want to put the time into handicapping games this summer you might want to consider signing up for one of his subscriptions.
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