Opening day is one of the most exciting days in sports. But does the excitement of a new season and the big crowds help the home team? Or, does it inspire the road team to feed off the energy in the stadium and play over their heads?
Profitable Major League Baseball Betting System for Opening Day
I have went back and looked at every opening day since 2004 and found some interesting results. There is definitely a pattern that will make you want to circle opening day on your calendar every year. Hopefully, this can get your MLB betting off to a fast start.
Over the last 14 years, home teams that are favored have gone 89-55 on opening day. The average line on those games was -149.6 for a return on investment (ROI) of 4.7%.
If you took the -1.5 run line you would have gone 51-61. While a losing record, it’s provided a big return because of the odds. The average run line for these games was +145.7, which comes to an ROI of +8.7%.
Not a bad return for blindly taking home favorites on opening day. But, if you are a guy who likes betting underdogs then you might be in for a rough start to the season.
Now let’s get rid of the extremes. Favorites of under -120 really aren’t favored by much. Those teams are essentially a coin flip over their opponents.
On the other side, favorites of more than -200 are laying too much juice for most people to stomach.
If we get rid of those teams the record and return improves dramatically to 64-26 (71.1%). The average line is -153 but the ROI is a whopping 17.5%!
Again, the run line outpaces the money line with a 37-35 record, an average line of +145.7 and a ROI of 24.8%!
Breaking things down by league gives us an even better result. The National League hasn’t been as good, checking in at 26-18 (59.1%) with an average line of -157.6.
But, the American League is another story. The AL home favorites are 38-8 (82.6%) for a return of 38.4% on opening day. Taking the run line has given bettors a 22-17 record with a ROI of 36.8%.
So, this year when you get ready to throw down your first baseball wager keep this strategy in mind. By taking AL home favorites on opening day you’ll likely find yourself beating the odds. Starting a season out in the black is always a good thing.
Mr. East has researched thousands of similar situations and that is why he is one of our favorite baseball handicappers. If you don’t want to put the time into handicapping games this summer you might want to consider signing up for one of his subscriptions.