Does it matter the exact line that a game closes at? Are there certain pro football spreads that win more than the rest? See for yourself, as I have compiled an in-depth look at how every spread in the last 25+ years has performed.

If all things were equal, we would expect it to be close to 50/50 in terms of winning percentage at each line. For the most part that is true. As long as there’s been a decent enough sample size (close to 100 games), almost all of them are within a few percent of 50%.

With that said, you can definitely read into the lines a little more. Let’s look at the ‘Overall Table’ for instance. We know that at standard -110 juice the break even point is 52.38%. Out of all the spreads a team can be at -10.5 or less (21 possibilities) only two are above this mark.

## Pro Football By the Numbers: Point Spreads & ATS Results

The only two most profitable small favorites are teams listed at -4 and -6. The obvious takeaway is that you need to play more underdogs. However, I thought it was interesting that those were the two that profited the most.

Given what we know about NFL key numbers, I think most would assume the most profitable favorites would be those just below the key numbers. For example, 3 and 7 are very common, meaning -2.5 and -6.5 are assumed to be great lines to back.

That’s not the case at all. In fact, these are two of the worst. Teams with a line of -2.5 have won just 47.2% of the time, -3.5 is decent at and only 46.2% at -6.5. It turns out, you don’t want to be on the other side of these either. Teams are hitting only 47.4% at -3.5 and a much worse 43.8% at -7.5.

Key thing to note now is to keep in mind the results are all based off the closing line. Someone could bet a team at -2.5 early in the week and the line could move and end up being graded at -2, -3, etc.

It’s also important to take a look at the home/away splits. As most of you know home field advantage is big in pro football. The results from the overall can be weakened or strengthened by where the game is being played. For example, Home favorites at -2.5 are a respectable 50.2%, while road favorites with the same line are a mere 43.4%.

Hope you enjoy this article and can use it to help improve your NFL handicapping this year.

## How NFL Betting Lines Have Performed Against the Spread Over Time

#### Overall

LineGamesATS RecordATS MarginATS Win %SU RecordSU MarginSU Win %
Pick286143-1430.0050.00%143-143050.00%
-1278130-141-7-1.7148.00%137-140-1-0.7149.50%
-1.5232116-116-1.0250.00%121-1110.4852.20%
-2323163-152-8-0.151.70%179-1441.955.40%
-2.5434205-229-1.3847.20%230-203-11.1253.10%
-31042469-474-990.0749.70%615-426-13.0759.10%
-3.5563267-2960.2847.40%353-2103.7862.70%
-4378199-171-80.5653.80%258-1204.5668.30%
-4.5252115-137-0.6945.60%162-903.8164.30%
-5237105-126-6-0.945.50%146-89-24.162.10%
-5.5252127-1250.7950.40%180-71-16.2971.70%
-6333177-147-91.5754.60%241-927.5772.40%
-6.5359166-193-0.4646.20%246-1136.0468.50%
-7485234-224-271.8251.10%363-120-28.8275.20%
-7.521092-1180.5443.80%157-538.0474.80%
-819389-101-31.0646.80%151-429.0678.20%
-8.514171-701.4450.40%112-299.9479.40%
-917284-86-21.249.40%138-33-110.280.70%
-9.517781-96-0.5545.80%137-408.9577.40%
-1017783-87-70.3248.80%139-3810.3278.50%
-10.510648-58-0.0445.30%87-1910.4682.10%
-118347-34-23.3758.00%72-1114.3786.70%
-11.55128-230.1554.90%44-711.6586.30%
-125730-25-22.4754.50%49-814.4786.00%
-12.54620-26-1.8943.50%40-610.6187.00%
-137032-36-2-1.747.10%56-13-111.381.20%
-13.57131-40-1.9143.70%54-1711.5976.10%
-147037-32-10.7153.60%58-1214.7182.90%
-14.52210-12-0.3645.50%20-214.1490.90%
-15199-9-1-0.1150.00%18-114.8994.70%
-15.5178-91.9747.10%17-017.47100.00%
-161814-47.9477.80%18-023.94100.00%
-16.52210-12045.50%22-016.5100.00%
-17114-6-1-0.6440.00%9-216.3681.80%
-17.530-3-14.170.00%2-13.3366.70%
-1810-1-110.00%1-07100.00%
-1932-13.3366.70%3-022.33100.00%
-19.521-16.550.00%2-026100.00%
-2041-3-5.7525.00%4-014.25100.00%
-20.521-1150.00%2-021.5100.00%
-21.510-1-11.50.00%1-010100.00%
-2210-1-10.00%1-021100.00%
-23.520-2-15.50.00%2-08100.00%
-2610-1-100.00%1-016100.00%
+1278141-130-71.7152.00%140-137-10.7150.50%
+1.5232116-1161.0250.00%111-121-0.4847.80%
+2323152-163-80.148.30%144-179-1.944.60%
+2.5434229-2051.3852.80%203-230-1-1.1246.90%
+31042474-469-99-0.0750.30%426-615-1-3.0740.90%
+3.5563296-267-0.2852.60%210-353-3.7837.30%
+4378171-199-8-0.5646.20%120-258-4.5631.70%
+4.5252137-1150.6954.40%90-162-3.8135.70%
+5237126-105-60.954.50%89-146-2-4.137.90%
+5.5252125-127-0.7949.60%71-180-1-6.2928.30%
+6333147-177-9-1.5745.40%92-241-7.5727.60%
+6.5360194-1660.4753.90%113-247-6.0331.40%
+7485224-234-27-1.8248.90%120-363-2-8.8224.80%
+7.5210118-92-0.5456.20%53-157-8.0425.20%
+8193101-89-3-1.0653.20%42-151-9.0621.80%
+8.514069-71-1.4749.30%29-111-9.9720.70%
+917286-84-2-1.250.60%33-138-1-10.219.30%
+9.517796-810.5554.20%40-137-8.9522.60%
+1017787-83-7-0.3251.20%38-139-10.3221.50%
+10.510658-480.0454.70%19-87-10.4617.90%
+118334-47-2-3.3742.00%11-72-14.3713.30%
+11.55123-28-0.1545.10%7-44-11.6513.70%
+125725-30-2-2.4745.50%8-49-14.4714.00%
+12.54626-201.8956.50%6-40-10.6113.00%
+137036-32-21.752.90%13-56-1-11.318.80%
+13.57140-311.9156.30%17-54-11.5923.90%
+147032-37-1-0.7146.40%12-58-14.7117.10%
+14.52212-100.3654.50%2-20-14.149.10%
+15199-9-10.1150.00%1-18-14.895.30%
+15.5179-8-1.9752.90%0-17-17.470.00%
+16184-14-7.9422.20%0-18-23.940.00%
+16.52212-10054.50%0-22-16.50.00%
+17116-4-10.6460.00%2-9-16.3618.20%
+17.533-014.17100.00%1-2-3.3333.30%
+1811-011100.00%0-1-70.00%
+1931-2-3.3333.30%0-3-22.330.00%
+19.521-1-6.550.00%0-2-260.00%
+2043-15.7575.00%0-4-14.250.00%
+20.521-1-150.00%0-2-21.50.00%
+21.511-011.5100.00%0-1-100.00%
+2211-01100.00%0-1-210.00%
+23.522-015.5100.00%0-2-80.00%
+2611-010100.00%0-1-160.00%

#### Home

LineGamesATS RecordATS MarginATS Win %SU RecordSU MarginSU Win %
Pick14368-75-1.3847.60%68-75-1.3847.60%
-115576-76-3-0.9950.00%79-75-10.0151.30%
-1.512463-610.1950.80%66-581.6953.20%
-219498-91-5-0.0751.90%109-851.9356.20%
-2.5243122-121-0.2950.20%137-105-12.2156.60%
-3589255-276-58-0.0248.00%342-2472.9858.10%
-3.5370173-1970.2246.80%233-1373.7263.00%
-4243126-113-40.1252.70%166-774.1268.30%
-4.516072-88-1.5145.00%98-622.9961.20%
-516170-87-4-1.7444.60%95-64-23.2659.70%
-5.518593-920.4850.30%128-56-15.9869.60%
-6238127-104-71.1555.00%174-647.1573.10%
-6.5268120-148-0.5944.80%180-885.9167.20%
-7346169-160-171.8751.40%257-87-28.8774.70%
-7.515868-900.2643.00%121-377.7676.60%
-815173-75-31.7749.30%123-289.7781.50%
-8.511052-581.2647.30%88-229.7680.00%
-913666-68-21.0349.30%108-2810.0379.40%
-9.513966-73-0.0847.50%107-329.4277.00%
-1013771-60-61.2654.20%110-2711.2680.30%
-10.58439-450.1146.40%69-1510.6182.10%
-116536-28-13.4856.20%58-714.4889.20%
-11.53922-17-0.4756.40%32-711.0382.10%
-124725-21-13.4754.30%42-515.4789.40%
-12.54219-23-1.1745.20%38-411.3390.50%
-136032-27-1-0.1854.20%49-10-112.8283.10%
-13.56729-38-1.7143.30%51-1611.7976.10%
-146033-26-11.2255.90%50-1015.2283.30%
-14.5208-12-0.940.00%18-213.690.00%
-15156-9-2.5340.00%14-1-12.4793.30%
-15.5147-71.7950.00%14-017.29100.00%
-161410-46.8671.40%14-022.86100.00%
-16.5209-11-0.1545.00%20-016.35100.00%
-17104-5-11.344.40%9-118.390.00%
-17.530-3-14.170.00%2-13.3366.70%
-1810-1-110.00%1-07100.00%
-1932-13.3366.70%3-022.33100.00%
-19.521-16.550.00%2-026100.00%
-2031-2-233.30%3-018100.00%
-20.521-1150.00%2-021.5100.00%
-21.510-1-11.50.00%1-010100.00%
-2210-1-10.00%1-021100.00%
-23.520-2-15.50.00%2-08100.00%
-2610-1-100.00%1-016100.00%
+112063-53-42.5554.30%63-571.5552.50%
+1.510755-522.4751.40%53-540.9749.50%
+212660-63-3-0.0248.80%58-68-2.0246.00%
+2.5189107-822.7656.60%97-920.2651.30%
+3445195-210-40-0.1748.10%177-268-3.1739.80%
+3.519197-94-0.4550.80%72-119-3.9537.70%
+413156-71-4-1.4644.10%41-90-5.4631.30%
+4.58848-40-0.1654.50%27-61-4.6630.70%
+57639-35-2-0.8752.70%25-51-5.8732.90%
+5.56632-34-1.9548.50%14-52-7.4521.20%
+69443-49-2-2.5446.70%28-66-8.5429.80%
+6.59045-450.1150.00%25-65-6.3927.80%
+713361-62-10-1.5549.60%33-100-8.5524.80%
+7.55228-24-1.453.80%16-36-8.930.80%
+84226-161.561.90%14-28-6.533.30%
+8.53112-19-2.0538.70%7-24-10.5522.60%
+93618-18-1.8350.00%5-30-1-10.8314.30%
+9.53722-152.1559.50%8-29-7.3521.60%
+104027-12-12.9269.20%11-29-7.0827.50%
+10.52213-90.5959.10%4-18-9.9118.20%
+11186-11-1-335.30%4-14-1422.20%
+11.5126-6-2.1750.00%0-12-13.670.00%
+1293-5-10.7837.50%2-7-11.2222.20%
+12.543-19.575.00%2-2-350.00%
+13109-0-110.8100.00%3-7-2.230.00%
+13.542-25.2550.00%1-3-8.2525.00%
+1495-40.6755.60%1-8-13.3311.10%
+14.520-2-50.00%0-2-19.50.00%
+1530-2-1-7.670.00%0-3-22.670.00%
+15.532-1-2.8366.70%0-3-18.330.00%
+1630-3-10.330.00%0-3-26.330.00%
+16.521-1-1.550.00%0-2-180.00%
+1711-020100.00%1-03100.00%
+2011-017100.00%0-1-30.00%

#### Away

LineGamesATS RecordATS MarginATS Win %SU RecordSU MarginSU Win %
Pick14375-681.3852.40%55-601.3852.40%
-112053-63-4-2.5545.70%57-63-1.5547.50%
-1.510752-55-2.4748.60%54-53-0.9750.50%
-212663-60-30.0251.20%68-582.0254.00%
-2.518982-107-2.7643.40%92-97-0.2648.70%
-3445210-195-400.1751.90%268-1773.1760.20%
-3.519194-970.4549.20%119-723.9562.30%
-413171-56-41.4655.90%90-415.4668.70%
-4.58840-480.1645.50%61-274.6669.30%
-57635-39-20.8747.30%51-255.8767.10%
-5.56634-321.9551.50%52-147.4578.80%
-69449-43-22.5453.30%66-288.5470.20%
-6.59045-45-0.1150.00%65-256.3972.20%
-713362-61-101.5550.40%100-338.5575.20%
-7.55224-281.446.20%36-168.969.20%
-84216-26-1.538.10%28-146.566.70%
-8.53119-122.0561.30%24-710.5577.40%
-93618-181.8350.00%30-5-110.8385.70%
-9.53715-22-2.1540.50%29-87.3578.40%
-104012-27-1-2.9230.80%29-117.0872.50%
-10.5229-13-0.5940.90%18-49.9181.80%
-111811-6-1364.70%14-41477.80%
-11.5126-62.1750.00%12-013.67100.00%
-1295-3-1-0.7862.50%7-211.2277.80%
-12.541-3-9.525.00%2-2350.00%
-13100-9-1-10.80.00%7-32.270.00%
-13.542-2-5.2550.00%3-18.2575.00%
-1494-5-0.6744.40%8-113.3388.90%
-14.522-05100.00%2-019.5100.00%
-1532-0-17.67100.00%3-022.67100.00%
-15.531-22.8333.30%3-018.33100.00%
-1633-010.33100.00%3-026.33100.00%
-16.521-11.550.00%2-018100.00%
-1710-1-200.00%0-1-30.00%
-2010-1-170.00%1-03100.00%
+115576-76-30.9950.00%75-79-1-0.0148.70%
+1.512461-63-0.1949.20%58-66-1.6946.80%
+219491-98-50.0748.10%85-109-1.9343.80%
+2.5243121-1220.2949.80%105-137-1-2.2143.40%
+3589276-255-580.0252.00%247-342-2.9841.90%
+3.5370197-173-0.2253.20%137-233-3.7237.00%
+4243113-126-4-0.1247.30%77-166-4.1231.70%
+4.516088-721.5155.00%62-98-2.9938.80%
+516187-70-41.7455.40%64-95-2-3.2640.30%
+5.518592-93-0.4849.70%56-128-1-5.9830.40%
+6238104-127-7-1.1545.00%64-174-7.1526.90%
+6.5269149-1200.5955.40%88-181-5.9132.70%
+7346160-169-17-1.8748.60%87-257-2-8.8725.30%
+7.515890-68-0.2657.00%37-121-7.7623.40%
+815175-73-3-1.7750.70%28-123-9.7718.50%
+8.510957-52-1.3152.30%22-87-9.8120.20%
+913668-66-2-1.0350.70%28-108-10.0320.60%
+9.513973-660.0852.50%32-107-9.4223.00%
+1013760-71-6-1.2645.80%27-110-11.2619.70%
+10.58445-39-0.1153.60%15-69-10.6117.90%
+116528-36-1-3.4843.80%7-58-14.4810.80%
+11.53917-220.4743.60%7-32-11.0317.90%
+124721-25-1-3.4745.70%5-42-15.4710.60%
+12.54223-191.1754.80%4-38-11.339.50%
+136027-32-10.1845.80%10-49-1-12.8216.90%
+13.56738-291.7156.70%16-51-11.7923.90%
+146026-33-1-1.2244.10%10-50-15.2216.70%
+14.52012-80.960.00%2-18-13.610.00%
+15159-62.5360.00%1-14-12.476.70%
+15.5147-7-1.7950.00%0-14-17.290.00%
+16144-10-6.8628.60%0-14-22.860.00%
+16.52011-90.1555.00%0-20-16.350.00%
+17105-4-1-1.355.60%1-9-18.310.00%
+17.533-014.17100.00%1-2-3.3333.30%
+1811-011100.00%0-1-70.00%
+1931-2-3.3333.30%0-3-22.330.00%
+19.521-1-6.550.00%0-2-260.00%
+2032-1266.70%0-3-180.00%
+20.521-1-150.00%0-2-21.50.00%
+21.511-011.5100.00%0-1-100.00%
+2211-01100.00%0-1-210.00%
+23.522-015.5100.00%0-2-80.00%
+2611-010100.00%0-1-160.00%

I did factor in a lot of these records when producing my best numbers for NFL teasers.  You see, just because away dogs of +4.5 cover so often doesn’t necessarily mean we think it’s a great idea to go from +4.5 to +10.5.  I lowered the hit rate of that leg to match closer to what it would be if +4.5 dogs hit at a 50% clip.