Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Portland at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Storm have to feel like enough is enough at this point. They've lost 10 straight games and that's been thanks in large part to an absolutely brutal schedule. Seattle has had a couple of days off to stew over its most recent setback, a loss but ATS cover against the Liberty in New York, and I look for it to rebound as it finally draws a winnable game on Saturday. Portland is probably feeling pretty good about itself after it snapped its five-game slide with a home win over Toronto on Thursday. The Fire remain one of the league's weakest defensive teams and I believe the Storm are capable of taking advantage. Note that this is a 'double-revenge' spot for Seattle after it dropped a pair of close results against Portland earlier in the season (both games were decided by only five points). Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Pittsburgh at 6:40 pm et on Saturday.

I think the knee-jerk reaction from most bettors will be to come right back with the 'over' after last night's relatively high-scoring affair at PNC Park. We'll go the other way and back the 'under' as I don't have a lot of confidence in either offense in this particular matchup and weather conditions appear fairly neutral in Pittsburgh on Saturday. Robert Stock will get a spot start for New York. He'll be tasked with handling a Pirates offense that is not in top form right now, ranking 25th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Stock has made just one start this season and it was a good one as he allowed only one earned run over five clean innings. Bubba Chandler will counter for Pittsburgh. He's pitched reasonably well lately but hasn't got a lot of support from his offense with the Pirates producing more than four runs in just one of his last four outings. While the Mets are rolling right now and come off a string of solid showings at the plate, they still rank just 12th in baseball in xwOBA over the last week so it's not as if they're tearing the cover off the baseball. Pittsburgh had to dip into its bullpen last night but kept most of its higher-leverage arms rested for Saturday's contest, providing some late inning confidence for us here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Milwaukee -1.5 runs over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Twins took the opener of this series in 'upset' fashion last night, holding on for a wild 8-6 victory. I expect the Brewers to answer back on Saturday. Taj Bradley has had a career year in many aspects for the Twins. With that being said, I don't love the matchup for the right-hander here. Bradley will walk his share of batters - nearly four per nine innings, in fact, and 13 over his last 24 innings of work. The Brewers, while not thought of as one of baseball's elite offensive teams, are capable of taking advantage. Note that they rank fourth in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. While the Twins did do a lot to bolster their bullpen prior to the trade deadline, they have a number of key relievers that are in 'overworked' territory entering Saturday's contest. Milwaukee will send Robert Gasser to the hill. While not a household name by any means, Gasser has been pitching well lately, allowing two earned runs or less in three straight starts and walking just two over his last four outings, covering a span of 19 innings. He's been much better at home than on the road this season, logging a 3.13 ERA and 1.07 WHIP here at American Family Field. Of note, the Twins rank 24th in the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. The Brewers got their bullpen in order in last night's contest, using just two relievers. While depth-shy, their 'pen has been terrific this season, logging a 3.57 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 37 saves converted and only 15 blown. Take Milwaukee -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

Neither team was able to cash in on many scoring opportunities in the opener of this series last night as the early scoring fizzled in a 3-2 Cardinals victory. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Saturday, however. The Rockies will send Kyle Freeland to the mound. He's coming off an improbable complete game victory over the Royals last time out. I say improbable as he owns an inflated 4.67 FIP and 1.49 WHIP on the season. While current Cardinals hitters haven't had a lot of success against Freeland, only three of them have seen him more than three times and those three have gone 5-for-19 with four extra base hits. Matthew Liberatore, like Freeland, is a regression candidate here after he turned in six innings of shutout ball against the Blue Jays last time out. Consistency hasn't been his calling card as he owns a 4.64 FIP and 1.49 WHIP on the campaign. Both bullpens are in fairly good shape workload-wise but both are also very hittable. On another hot and humid evening in St. Louis, I expect both teams to take advantage of their opportunities this time around. Take the over (8*).

Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday.

This total is being priced as if Lions QB Nathan Rourke is going to step right back in and get the offense humming again. I'm not sure it's so straight-forward. The Tiger-Cats are sure to be in a foul mood after getting drilled 44-20 at home against the Stampeders last week. I do think they're a much better defensive team than they showed in that contest. That was a letdown of sorts after they let one get away in Montreal less than a week earlier. While Hamilton did allow 31 points in that loss to the Alouettes it had everything to do with late offensive miscues rather than poor defensive play. The Lions will look to follow up on last week's 35-19 'upset' win in Winnipeg. The B.C. ground game went off for a ridiculous 377 rushing yards in that game - a performance it isn't going to duplicate here. I don't think we'll see the Lions firing on all cylinders offensively should Rourke return. Instead look for this to be more of a grind-it-out affair with the Ti-Cats taking an interest in shortening proceedings with their limited offense. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over Montreal at 3 pm et on Saturday.

The Alouettes have been the CFL's best team this season and enter this contest riding a four-game ATS winning streak. With that being said, their lone loss came against the same Elks they'll face on Saturday. While the 'revenge' angle is certainly at play, especially with this game being played at Montreal, I think it's been fully factored into the line. Edmonton enters this game off a home loss to the Roughriders last week. The Elks got nothing from their ground attack yet were still in that game right until the end, ultimately losing by just two points. The Als home field advantage hasn't been as pronounced as you might think this season. They're 4-0 at home but that includes a two-point win over the lowly Redblacks and their 31-18 victory over a banged-up Hamilton team two weeks ago was misleading as they took advantage of multiple Tiger-Cats miscues in the final minutes to pull away. I'm confident the Elks can take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Edmonton (8*).