Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

My selection is on Toronto over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Monday.

I like the bounce-back spot for the Blue Jays here after dropping a 3-2 decision against the Reds yesterday. It was still a positive homestand for Toronto as it won consecutive series' against Seattle and Cincinnati. You can be sure the Jays are acutely aware just how bad their most recent road trip went and they'll be looking to make amends for that as they head to St. Louis and Anaheim this week. We'll back Toronto with Jose Berrios starting on Monday. He comes off his best outing of the young season, tossing seven shutout innings against Seattle last week. Berrios' overall numbers aren't great this season but we certainly know what he's capable of and look for him to turn things around sooner rather than later. The Cardinals just finished beating up on the Pirates over a three-game series but aren't likely to find the same level of success in this much tougher matchup. Miles Mikolas has posted terrific numbers this season but has still only managed to post one team victory in three home starts. While he hasn't allowed many runs, he's also not fooling a lot of hitters, topping out at five strikeouts over his last three outings. Here, we'll note that the Blue Jays are 37-16 after scoring two runs or less in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.9 runs on average in that situation. Take Toronto (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Las Vegas at 10 pm et on Monday.

Both of these teams have seen the 'over' cash in consecutive games but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday night in Sin City. The pace hasn't necessarily been there in the Sparks last two contests, with both teams getting off fewer than 70 field goal attempts on both occasions. The Sparks, however, shot the lights out in both games, knocking down 32 field goals in each. Here, I expect Los Angeles to face some resistance, noting that the Sparks - while known for their offensive prowess - have done a nice job defensively, holding three of their last four opponents to fewer than 30 made field goals and all four of those opponents to 70 or fewer field goal attempts. We've cashed some 'over' tickets in games involving the Sparks this season, noting that we expected them to struggle defensively out of the gate. Lately, we have seen them do a better job though, as they've limited four straight opponents to 70 or fewer FG attempts after allowing Indiana to get off 78 back in their second game of the season. While Las Vegas averages 91.7 points per game this season, it's worth noting that number drops to 83.9 points after scoring 90+ points in consecutive games over the last two seasons (23-game sample size), as is the case here. Also note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with the Sparks coming off four consecutive losses over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 135.7 points. Take the under (8*).

N.L. Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

I think the case can be made for the Brewers being the better team in this matchup, with the better starting pitcher on the mound, yet we're getting an underdog price as the Padres roll in off four consecutive victories capped off by a three-game sweep against the division rival Giants in San Francisco. We actually cashed a free play on the underdog Nationals in their win over the Brewers yesterday as Milwaukee looked like it had one foot already on the plane having easily won the first two games in that series against Washington. Here, we'll note that the Brewers are 12-9 on the road this season, averaging 4.1 runs per game. By contrast, the Padres are 10-7 at home, but have managed to score only 3.4 runs per contest. Brewers starter Adrian Houser has inexplicably struggled in two starts against the lowly Reds this season but has excelled against everyone else. He was a hard-luck loser against the Braves last time out, allowing just one unearned run over six innings in a 3-0 Brewers loss. Houser faced the Padres twice last season, allowing only two earned runs in 9 2/3 innings including a 4-2 Brewers victory here in San Diego. Nick Martinez gets another turn in the rotation for the Padres, out of necessity only. He's struggled to the tune of a 4.40 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season with those numbers rising to 5.22 and 1.50 in four home outings. The Brewers will be getting their first look at him here but so were the Cubs in his most recent start and they reached him for five earned runs in just four innings. Take Milwaukee (10*).

Second Round Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 goals over Colorado at 9:30 pm et on Monday.

We won with the Avalanche on Saturday as they skated to a 5-2 victory to grab a 2-1 series lead. I won't hesitate to go the other way on Monday, however, as the Blues look to answer back, just as they did in Game 2 of the series. Yes, St. Louis lost goaltender Jordan Binnington to an injury after a questionable play from Nazim Kadri in Game 3 on Saturday. Ville Husso is certainly a capable backup, however, noting that he actually began the playoffs as the starter before being replaced by Binnington following a couple of poor performances against the Wild. Prior to Game 2 of the opening round against Minnesota, Husso had gone a perfect 12-0 in his last 12 starts when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line, as we'll be using to our advantage here. Note that Colorado has allowed 4.1 goals per game, outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals when coming off a road win in which it scored 4+ goals over the last two seasons (14-game sample size). Meanwhile, St. Louis checks in averaging 3.8 goals per contest and outscoring opponents by 0.5 goals on average when coming off two losses in its last three games this season (25-game sample size), as is the case here. This is obviously a critical game for the Blues as they're not likely to reel off three straight victories against a team as good as the Avalanche should they dig a 3-1 series hole. Note that St. Louis has responded well to adversity in these playoffs, notching victories on both previous occasions when trailing a series with those two wins coming by a combined 9-3 margin. Take St. Louis +1.5 goals (10*).

Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

We've seen the 'over' cash in each of the first three games of this series, not to mention the first half 'over' as well. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday, however. The last two games have seen these two teams take turns shooting the lights out. First it was a three-point barrage from the Celtics down 1-0 in the series in Game 2 and then an early all-out shooting assault from the Heat back in Boston in Game 3. Now, however, both teams are dealing with some key injuries with Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum among those getting banged-up in Game 3 on Saturday. Both will likely play on Monday but whether they're 100% healthy is up for debate. Note that the three regular season meetings between these two teams totalled just 84, 99 and 105 first half points - all staying 'under' the number we're dealing with tonight. Also note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a home favorite this season, leading to an average first half total of just 98.3 points. The Heat have posted a very long-term 104-146 o/u mark in the first half across all playoff games over the last number of years. Take the first half under (10*).

Monday NHL Free play. My selection is on Florida over Tampa Bay at 7 pm et on Monday.

The betting markets certainly believe that the Panthers are done, installing the Lightning as favorites for the first time in this series on Monday night. I'm not sure it's over just yet. As I've mentioned before, long winning streaks aren't commonplace in the NHL Playoffs. However, the Lightning enter this game on the heels of five straight victories. I'm not expecting the Panthers to go away quietly as they look to at least get this series back to Sunrise for one more game. Florida has lost more than three games in a row just once this season with that four-game skid coming back in early November. Meanwhile, the Bolts have yet to notch more than five consecutive victories at any point this season. Look for the Panthers offense to finally live up to expectations and help produce a victory on Monday. Take Florida.

Sean WON AGAIN in BOTH NBA and NHL action on Sunday and extends his RED HOT playoff runs with TWO 10* TOP RATED releases from the hardwood and the ice on Monday; grab your subscription package now!

Monday MLB Free play. My selection is on Seattle over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

The Mariners will be happy to be back home following a disappointing road trip that culminated with a four-game sweep at the hands of the Red Sox in Boston. They check in 9-7 at home this season compared to 8-18 on the road. Marco Gonzalez would seem to be the right guy on the mound, noting that he has lowered his ERA from 4.05 all the way to 3.08 over his last three outings. He's worked at least into the sixth inning in four consecutive starts, allowing three earned runs or less in each trip over that stretch. The A's will counter with rookie Zach Logue. In stark contrast to Gonzalez, he's lasted five innings or less in two of three starts this season. It's worth noting that the Mariners did see him for a couple of innings at the end of Spring Training as well. This is a big homestand for Seattle as it tries to dig itself out of the A.L. West basement. Look for it to get it off to a positive start on Monday. Take Seattle.

Sean WON AGAIN in BOTH NBA and NHL action on Sunday and extends his RED HOT playoff runs with TWO 10* TOP RATED releases from the hardwood and the ice on Monday; grab your subscription package now!