Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

My selection is on Sacred Heart plus the points over New Hampshire at 1 pm et on Sunday.

New Hampshire is off to a 2-0 start after posting road wins at Brown and Rider and it figures to get plenty of support from bettors as a short home favorite on Sunday afternoon. We'll go the other way and grab the points with the visiting Pioneers. While New Hampshire's 'upset' win at Brown to open the season was impressive, it's worth noting that it came thanks to a wide 32-14 edge in free throw attempts. The Wildcats have actually gotten off just 45 and 46 field goal attempts through their first two contests, connecting on 15 and 22 of them. That's in stark contrast to Sacred Heart. The Pioneers predictably rolled past the U.S. Coast Guard 111-44 in its season-opener. There was obviously little to glean from that victory. In their second game, they got off 68 field goal attempts - pushing the pace for a second straight game - but were inefficient, connecting on just 24 of those attempts including 5-of-25 from beyond the arc. I do expect Sacred Heart to bounce back offensively here, noting that New Hampshire has yet to face a team that puts any emphasis on the three ball (it allowed only 19 and 20 three-point attempts in its first two contests). Take Sacred Heart (8*).

My selection is on Toronto over New Jersey at 7 pm et on Sunday.

Bettors are clearly off the Maple Leafs as they come off back-to-back losses and four defeats in their last five games, including a 4-2 setback against the rival Canadiens last night. Meanwhile, the Devils have gone on a tear since acquiring goaltender Connor Hellebuyck from the Jets. They've won four straight and eight of their last nine games overall including an overtime victory over the Islanders last night. It is worth noting that each of New Jersey's last three victories has come by way of overtime or a shootout so it is playing with a rather small margin for error right now. The Leafs started struggling goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky last night. The good news is they're expected to go with Anthony Stolarz between the pipes on Sunday. Toronto has won five of Stolarz's six starts this season. Take Toronto (8*).

My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Tampa Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The 'sharp' bettors figure to be all over the Buccaneers in an underdog role in Chicago on Sunday night. We'll go the other way and lay the points with the red hot Bears. Tampa Bay opened the season 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS but has sinced turned it around, going 3-1 SU and ATS over its last four contests. The Buccaneers still have a very limited offense with QB Baker Mayfield operating at what I would call less than full health to say the least. While the heavy rain certainly contributed to last week's dismal offensive effort in a 16-0 home win over Atlanta, the fact is the Bucs have gained 5.5 yards per play or less in three straight and six of their last seven games. I think their defense is going to be on the field a lot on Sunday night. Chicago certainly appears ripe for a letdown as it returns home on a short week after Monday's impressive 34-17 rout of the defending champion Seahawks in Seattle. With that being said, I think there's actually room for improvement here after gaining just 5.3 yards per play against a tough Seattle defense. The real key here might just be the coaching mismatch as I feel Bears head coach Ben Johnson is in another league compared to Bucs coach Todd Bowles. I'm far more confident in Johnson's ability to scheme up a winning gameplan on a short week than I am in Bowles unlocking the Bucs offense in a hostile environment. You might remember there was similarly a lot of love for the Bucs in an underdog role in a Sunday night game against the Rams in Los Angeles last November - a game they lost 34-7. Mayfield suffered an injury and didn't finish that game but it didn't really matter as it was out of hand by the end of the first half. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on Butler plus the points over Boise State at 2 pm et on Sunday.

These two teams have met in each of the last two seasons, once in a postseason tournament and most recently last year at Hinkle Fieldhouse, where Boise State won 77-68. I look for Butler to repay the favor here. The Bulldogs are off to a terrific start having delivered blowout wins over Lafayette and Fairleigh Dickinson. While they'll be taking a step up in class here, I believe they'll be up for it. Note that Butler has connected on 32 and 36 field goals in its first two contests while holding both opponents to just 25 including a grand total of nine made three-pointers. It's hard to glean much from Boise State's opener as it came against little-known West Coast Baptist. The Broncos predictably won in a walk 132-53. Of note, Boise State shot just 12-of-32 from beyond the arc in that contest. Look for the Bulldogs to get their 'revenge' here. Take Butler (8*).

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My selection is on New England minus the points over Green Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Patriots will be happy to be back home after a 1-1 road split in Chicago and Miami. Of note, they won't play at home again until December 6th after today's game. The Packers have won four of their last five games SU and four in a row ATS. I still think they're somewhat of a 'paper tiger' though. Note that Green Bay figures to need plenty of offensive production to succeed given its injury issues on defense. Yet, the Packers have gained just 4.7, 5.1 and 5.3 yards per play over their last three contests. In the two victories over that stretch it was mistakes by the opposition that more or less led the Pack to victory. New England's defense came up big in last week's hard-fought, rain-soaked win in Miami. That defense is getting healthier and I do think the Pats can be a player in the AFC down the stretch. Off three consecutive ATS defeats we're being offered a reasonable price to back New England in Foxborough on Sunday. Take New England (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Miami at 9:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Heat enjoyed consecutive red hot shooting performances last week against Atlanta and Indiana but since then it's been back in the tank for this team offensively. Miami continues its western road trip on Sunday in Sacramento and while it is rested having not played since Thursday, that's where I see the advantages ending. The Heat have allowed six straight and eight of nine opponents to connect on 42 or more field goals this season. They've had no success (or interest) in dictating pace for better or worse. As I mentioned, Miami has cooled offensively, knocking down 40+ field goals just once in three games on this trip and that performance was boosted by overtime in a narrow one-point win over the Clippers. Sacramento has quietly tightened things up defensively, holding three straight opponents to fewer than 80 field goal attempts and five in a row to 85 or less. Meanwhile, the Kings have shown some signs of life offensively, knocking down 40+ field goals in six of their last eight games. Look for Sacramento to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Sacramento (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Lakers head east for the first time this season as they start a four-game road trip in Detroit on Sunday. While not known for its defense, the Lakers have been locked in at that end of the floor lately, holding five of their last six opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Their 124-118 win against Portland on Friday marked the first time in 10 games this season that they hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts. They'll be hard-pressed to get there against a Pistons team that has been elite defensively, holding four straight opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts and all eight foes to 40 or fewer made field goals this season. Detroit prefers a methodical pace having gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in all but one of its eight contests this season. In the lone outlier it connected on just 38-of-90 field goal attempts in a game that reached only 204 total points in Brooklyn. Take the under (8*).

Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Cowboys season is quickly going off the rails as they have just one win over the last month and that came against a severely depleted Eagles team two weeks ago. Last week, Dallas appeared to have a win sewn up against the lowly Cardinals but coughed up a lead and ultimately lost in overtime. While the Colts look like a layup bounce-back matchup on paper, I don't expect Indianapolis to roll over on Sunday. The Colts have lost four games in a row and check in off an embarrassing 42-7 loss in Jacksonville last week. Of course, Indy had 'emptied the tank' in a near 'upset' of the then-undefeated Vikings in Minnesota the week previous. Off last week's complete no-show in Jacksonville I look for the Colts to rise to the occasion back at home, noting that the last time they played here they were embarrassed by the Titans. There's actually a path back to respectability and even contention for the Colts (if they can win here) as three of their next four games come at home including a date with the struggling Dolphins next week followed by a primetime game against a disappointing Texans squad and then the Giants back home. Take Indianapolis (10*).

My selection is on Miami plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Lions are ripe for a letdown as they head on the road banged-up and coming off an emotional division win over the previously undefeated Vikings last Sunday. Detroit held up well defensively against a limited Vikings offense last week but I expect it to have its hands full against a Dolphins offense that has played with purpose in recent weeks. Miami knows it's not likely to win a track meet with Detroit but it has employed a methodical offense that has frustrated the opposition over the last month, losing by five points at Minnesota, seven at home against Cincinnati, winning on the road against the Jets and most recently dropping a 24-19 decision against New England last week. Defensively, the Fins have allowed 5.6 yards per play or less in three of their last four contests. It can certainly be true that Miami is a bad 'real world' football team but an excellent ATS team on a weekly basis having gone 3-0-1 ATS over its last four. The Lions are 2-4-1 ATS and coming off an ATS victory last week it's worth noting that they've yet to string together consecutive pointspread victories this season. Take Miami (8*).

Sean went 6-3-1 on Saturday and is RED HOT over the last week! He's ready to go with a loaded card of action on Sunday, highlighted by THREE 10* TOP RATED NFL big ticket releases! Your best bet is a subscription package, giving you access to ALL of Murph's winners every day at a fraction of the cost of individual picks; join today!

SNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

Tampa Bay has suddenly turned things around with three wins in its last four games and the return of QB Baker Mayfield has certainly given it an emotional boost if nothing else. I still think this is a very limited Buccaneers offense with Mayfield clearly not operating at 100% health, nor with a full compliment of weapons around him. The good news is, the Bucs defense has been playing its best football of the season, holding its last three opponents to 4.2, 5.4 and 4.7 yards per play. It will need to be just as good against a red hot Bears offense on Sunday night. Chicago has seen the 'over' cash in three straight games. I'm willing to bet that streak ends here. The Bears have scored 30+ points in three straight contests but that's a bit misleading as they actually gained just 5.3 yards per play in two of those three games. The Chicago defense has been quietly effective this season. On Monday, it limited Seattle to just 4.8 yards per play. I think this is another matchup it can handle. Take the under (10*).

NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Gardner Minshew stepped in and revived the Cardinals offense in an 'upset' win in Dallas last Sunday. Doing that against the Cowboys awful defense is one thing. Doing it against the Seahawks, who are in a foul mood off Monday's lopsided loss against the Bears, is another entirely. Seattle lost QB Sam Darnold to an injury in that game against Chicago. Drew Lock is expected to get the start on Sunday and while he's dealing with an elbow injury, I don't think he'll need to do too much to secure the win (and cover) for Seattle here. The Seahawks defense, which has been elite against the pass this season, figures to do much of the heavy lifting. Meanwhile, Seattle got RB Zach Charbonnet back in a limited role on Monday and he'll likely see an expanded workload here. Only one game separates these two teams in the NFC West standings but the Seahawks have a +26 point differential while the Cardinals are -63. Take Seattle (10*).