Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

My selection is on the ‘under’ between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Most are expecting a shootout between these two high-scoring division rivals on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati but these AFC North slugfests rarely play out that way (the most recent meeting between these two teams went 23-20 in favor of the Steelers) and I anticipate more of the same this week. The Steelers were in an absolutely beautiful spot last week, hosting a depleted Falcons defense, at home no less. Not surprisingly, they had their way with Atlanta offensively (we won with the Steelers and the over) but should face a considerably tougher challenge on the road against the Bengals on Sunday. Cincinnati is coming off a strong defensive showing last week, absolutely shutting the Dolphins down after digging an early hole, allowing the offense to rally before notching a late defensive score. I look for some carry-over from that second half performance here. Keep in mind, the Bengals defense has gotten stronger, particularly against the run, with the return of LB Vontaze Burfict. Pittsburgh’s defense had been getting torched repeatedly prior to last week’s bounce-back performance against the Falcons. That effort should bode well for this group as it prepares to face a somewhat underrated Bengals offense on Sunday afternoon. Both teams may very well get into the 20’s in this contest, but I believe the lofty posted total will simply prove too high. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the ‘over’ between Tampa Bay and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is the game that will likely have fantasy owners scrambling to pick up Bucs QB Jameis Winston. Tampa Bay will turn to Winston on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta and he draws an extremely favorable matchup in his first start back. I may sound like a broken record playing Falcons ‘overs’ seemingly every week but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Atlanta defense remains depleted and faces another opponent that won’t hesitate to go vertical on them all afternoon long. With little semblance of a running game, the Bucs will likely bomb away and find success doing so. On the flip side, the Falcons offense is coming off a bit of a stinker last week in Pittsburgh. They were able to move the football but ultimately couldn’t put points on the board, but should rebound against a Bucs defense that has shown absolutely zero ability to slow down opposing passing games. Tampa Bay’s main focus is on stopping the run, and it has done a good job of limiting opposing backs. However, the Bucs secondary is bottom of the barrel and will certainly have its hands full against the Falcons loaded receiving corps. We’re dealing with a very high posted total in this one, but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*).

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Tennessee at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I’ll lay the short number with the Ravens on Sunday afternoon, even in a tough spot playing their third straight road game. I like the bounce-back nature of this one for Baltimore, and also the fact that it will be looking to avenge a narrow field goal loss at the hands of the Titans last season. While both teams check in with identical 3-2 records, I believe Baltimore has a lot more upside. The Ravens simply weren’t able to make enough plays on offense in order to secure a win in Cleveland last Sunday. I do anticipate more efficiency from that unit here but the real story should be the Baltimore defense which draws a favorable matchup against a limited Titans offense. The Ravens defense is a different unit with cornerback Jimmy Smith back on the field. He returned last week and it should come as no surprise that they kept the Browns offense at bay for four quarters and then some. After falling just short in that game, I’m anticipating another strong performance from the defense here. To be quite honest, I’m not sure the Ravens will have to do much offensively in order to secure an important road victory. Take Baltimore (10*).

Sean is already off to a PERFECT start in NFL action this week (won PHI-NYG over on TNF) and is now riding an INCREDIBLE 24-10 NFL run and a 49-27 NFL tear dating back to last season! Another MASSIVE NFL card is on deck Sunday, keyed by THREE big ticket releases; hop on board now!

NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year. My selection is on New England minus the points over Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

This is a rematch of last year’s season-opener – a game the Chiefs won in blowout fashion right here in Foxborough. I expect a much different story to unfold this time around as the Patriots look to gain an ounce of revenge against Andy Reid’s undefeated squad. I like the way this one sets up for the Pats as they come off an extended week following their Thursday night win over the Colts. We’ve seen their offense evolve and improve over the early stages of the season and I’m confident we’ll see their best effort of the campaign to date on Sunday night against a very beatable Chiefs defense. New England welcomed WR Julian Edelman back to the field last week and he should continue to see his role increase as the weeks go on. In this game I actually expect to see the Patriots backfield take center stage with RBs James White and Sony Michel going off against a porous Chiefs defense. We have seen some chinks in the Chiefs offensive armor over the last couple of games, with the Broncos and Jaguars at least laying out somewhat of a blueprint as to how to slow down this juggernaut. This certainly has all the makings of a shootout, but in the end I like the Patriots to make a couple more big plays down the stretch and pull away for a win and cover. Take New England (10*).

My selection is on the ‘under’ between Baltimore and Tennessee at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the ‘under’ in the Ravens overtime loss to the Browns last Sunday and I’ll go right back to the well with the same play this week as Baltimore stays on the road to face the Titans. This Baltimore defense continues to improve and welcomed back cornerback Jimmy Smith last week – a true gamechanger for this unit. I’m confident in Baltimore’s ability to limit a below average Titans offense here. Tennessee has topped out at 26 points this season, but that came two weeks ago against a depleted Eagles defense that has struggled in the early going. The good news is, the Titans do possess a terrific defense that is capable of containing a Ravens offense that has really only been able to bust out against bottom-tier defenses this season. We’ve seen Baltimore make headway against the likes of Buffalo, Denver and Pittsburgh. However, in its other two games against Cincinnati and Cleveland it managed to score a grand total of 32 points. Note that when these two teams met last season, the Titans prevailed by a 23-20 score. I believe both defenses are better this year and anticipate a lower-scoring affair as a result. Take the under (10*).

NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Even with the Rams injury concerns at the wide receiver position, and the Broncos struggles with Case Keenum under center, I’m still anticipating a shootout in Denver on Sunday afternoon. The Rams offense has a bit of a ‘next man up’ feel so even if Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp are unable to go, I still expect to see this unit put plenty of points on the board. Keep in mind, the Rams still have arguably the best running back in football in Todd Gurley, who should have a field day against a vulnerable Broncos run defense on Sunday afternoon. We successfully faded the Broncos on the road against the Jets last Sunday and the fact is, the final numbers put up by their offense actually made things look a lot better than they actually were, putting points on the board in garbage time. Here, I am expecting a strong bounce-back performance from the Denver offense as they draw a favorable matchup against a Rams defense that has had a miserable time slowing down opponents this season. While Los Angeles is certainly thought of as an elite team, deservingly so, it’s largely on the strength of its offense. Defensively, the Rams are missing key cogs and the personnel they have had on the field has not come close to living up to expectations. There’s little reason to expect a sudden turnaround as they stay on the road for the second straight week and face a highly-motivated Broncos offense. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I’m confident we’ll see the Seahawks take care of business as they head across the pond to face the lowly Raiders on Sunday. Oakland showed signs of life in a come-from-behind win over the Browns two weeks ago but couldn’t follow it up last Sunday, falling in blowout fashion against the Chargers. Don’t count on a big bounce-back performance here as I see this as a terrible matchup for the Raiders defense against the Seahawks emerging offense. Seattle QB Russell Wilson still isn’t at full strength, showing little scrambling ability, at least compared to what we’ve seen from him in years’ past. But the good news is, his arm is fine, as he continues to march the offense up and down the field. We saw the Seattle passing game give the Rams big problems last week and there’s little reason to expect anything different against Oakland. Meanwhile, the Seahawks ground game should have little trouble carving up a Raiders run defense that allows over five yards per rush this season. Seattle no longer has an elite defense, but I do think it will make just enough plays to contribute to a win and cover on Sunday afternoon in London. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday.

It’s not easy to call for a shootout in a game involving the Raiders these days. They were absolutely manhandled by the Chargers last Sunday but do find themselves in a favorable spot here facing a Seahawks defense that is by no means a feared unit anymore. After giving RB Marshawn Lynch very little work in last week’s blowout loss, I do expect Oakland to go back to Lynch in this matchup against his former team and that should bode well for the Raiders offensive production. As for the Seahawks, I expect their offense to go off against a weak Raiders defense that hasn’t been able to stop the run, allowing over five yards per rush, nor has it been able to defend the deep ball, which plays right into the hands of this Seattle aerial attack. The Seahawks are of course back at full strength in their passing game with WR Doug Baldwin back on the field. He was virtually a non-factor in last week’s narrow loss to the Rams but should play a much bigger role this Sunday. Meanwhile, the Seahawks ground game has quietly emerged as a serious threat to opposing defenses and I’m confident we’ll see Chris Carson and Mike Davis run wild in this contest. This is a reasonably high posted total for a ‘London game’ but I do believe it’s warranted. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the ‘over’ between Indianapolis and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I’ll back the ‘over’ in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. The Colts defense has fallen back to Earth following a surprisingly strong start to the season. They check into this one having allowed over 30 points in back-to-back games and while things should get a little easier here, the Jets are coming off their best offensive showing of the season last week and could build off of that performance in this favorable matchup at home. QB Sam Darnold has shown plenty of positives in his rookie campaign and should be brimming with confidence after hitting a number of big plays against the Broncos once-feared pass defense last week. We saw WR Robby Anderson re-emerge in last week’s contest and I look for some carry-over from that performance as he continues to build chemistry with Darnold. On the flip side, the Colts offense has shown some progression with QB Andrew Luck getting back in rhythm with the offense. He did well to keep his team in the game against the Patriots last week. The Colts have been bombing away, so to speak, and I anticipate more of the same here this Sunday as Indianapolis could be playing from behind once again. The Jets defense isn’t scaring anyone these days. While the Colts are still missing WR T.Y. Hilton and TE Jack Doyle, they showed last week that they can still consistently move the football down the field with their short passing game. It’s that short game that should give the Jets some trouble on Sunday afternoon. We’re dealing with a relatively low total here due to the reputations these two teams carry as AFC also-rans. I see the game playing out differently. Take the over (10*).

NFL NFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I absolutely love the way this spot sets up for the Vikings on Sunday afternoon. Minnesota’s offense has taken off since that embarrassing no-show at home against the Bills three weeks ago. Since then we’ve seen the Vikes march up and down the field against both the Rams and Eagles, managing to earn a 1-1 split. Now they return home to host a Cardinals squad that is coming off its first victory of the season, but that came against a weak 49ers squad last Sunday. Here, Arizona will face a much tougher challenge, staying on the road and heading two time zones east for an early start in Minnesota. The Vikings defense hasn’t been great this season but did turn in a fairly strong showing in Philadelphia last week and gets a favorable matchup here. If there’s one thing the Vikes have continued to do well it’s stop the run and that should serve them well as they prepare to face Cards RB David Johnson, who has shown some signs of life since QB Josh Rosen took over the offense. I don’t see how Arizona keeps within arm’s reach for four quarters without a passing game to speak of. Look for another big game from Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins as the Vikes roll at home. Take Minnesota (10*).