Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and New York at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

Neither of these offenses have impressed me all that much in the early going this season and I think the starting pitching matchup serves our purposes well on Friday night in Queens. Miles Mikolas had a terrific Spring for the Cardinals but that hasn't carried over to the regular season as he checks in sporting a FIP north of five. This might be just the matchup to get him back on track, however. Note that current Mets hitters have gone 32-for-137 off of him with just 12 extra base hits. Only D.J. Stewart and Tyrone Taylor have managed to take Mikolas deep. Of note, Pete Alonso is just 2-for-12 off of Mikolas with a pair of singles. Mets starter Jose Butto has been terrific through three starts this season, sporting a 2.59 FIP and 1.04 WHIP. No current Cardinals hitter has seen Butto before. Both bullpens have been serviceable in the early going, particularly when holding leads (15 converted saves and only five blown combined). Take the under (8*).

Friday NBA Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Indiana at 5:30 pm et on Friday.

We know what the Pacers want to do in this series as they've laid that out pretty well in the first two games. They want to play fast having hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts in each of the first two contests in this series. I do think the Bucks can keep pace on Friday, noting they've bounced back consistently following poor shooting efforts in recent weeks (they connected on just 38-of-86 field goal attempts in Game 2). The 'over' is 55-39 in the Bucks last 94 games with the total set in the 220's including an 18-11 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 40-25 in the Pacers last 65 contests as a home favorite including an 18-12 record in that situation this season. Take the over.

Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday.

The Braves are coming off a string of low-scoring games but I look for a different story to unfold as we see a battle of southpaw starting pitchers in Logan Allen and Chris Sale. The Guardians aren't known for their offense but they've been on a tear against left-handed pitching this season, ranking third in the majors with an .826 OPS. The Braves are just two spots behind them with a .793 OPS against lefties. Of course, it hasn't really mattered who Atlanta has faced at home - the Braves rank second in baseball with an .804 home OPS. Logan Allen continues to labor through his second big league season with a 5.50 FIP and 1.39 WHIP in five starts. Chris Sale has fared much better for the Braves, sporting a 3.39 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. With his durability always in question, I do think some regression is in order for the veteran left-hander. Take the over (10*).

First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8 pm et on Friday.

The first two games in this series both stayed 'under' the total. In fact, neither contest came close to toppling the total and as a result we're working with a much lower number in Game 3 on Friday. I see a catalyst for change at work here as the scene shifts to Dallas. I certainly don't expect either team to shoot as poorly as they did in Games 1 and 2. Note that the 'over' is 26-23 in the Clippers last 49 games after giving up 100 points or less in their previous contest including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 25-21 with the Clips coming off a game where they scored 100 points or less including a 5-3 record this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 45-37 in the Mavericks last 82 contests as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. The two regular season meetings between these two teams here in Dallas totalled 270 and 231 points. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Minnesota at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

This spot sets up beautifully for the Suns as they return home down 2-0 against the Timberwolves on Friday. All is not yet lost for Phoenix as it brings confidence to Game 3 knowing it has gone 25-16 on its home floor this season. Minnesota has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven straight-up losses on the road. Also note that the T'Wolves are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games when leading a playoff series and 1-4 ATS this season following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Suns are 35-21 ATS in their last 56 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a 12-10 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also 6-3 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss this season, as is the case here. Take Phoenix (8*).

First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Edmonton over Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

A back-and-forth series was to be expected between these familiar divisional foes - meeting for the third time in as many years in the opening round of the playoffs. Here, we'll look for the Oilers to rebound following Wednesday's overtime loss at home. Credit Edmonton for battling back on multiple occasions in that game after digging an early 2-0 hole. The Oilers are well-positioned to bounce back on Friday noting that they've gone 29-14 (+9.7 net games) in their last 43 games following a loss by a single goal. They're also 30-16 (+7.9 net games) when seeking revenge for a loss in which they allowed five goals or more, as is the case here. The Kings are just 19-26 (-11.2 net games) in their last 45 contest after scoring four goals or more in consecutive games, which is the situation on Friday. Finally, we'll note that the Oilers are 8-4 (+2.5 net games) in their last 12 meetings here in Los Angeles. Take Edmonton (10*).