Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

My selection is on New York over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Mets got absolutely thrashed by the Nationals last night but I look for them to bounce back here at Citi Field on Tuesday. Max Scherzer returns from a hamstring injury for the Nats'. I'm simply not buying what the Nats' ace is selling so far this season as his walk totals are way up and he has generally looked quite ordinary through three starts. Meanwhile, Mets journeyman starter Rick Porcello tossed seven strong innings, allowing just one earned run, against the Nats' last week and I'm confident we'll see a solid effort from him again here. The oddsmakers are giving Scherzer too much runway with this inflated price. Take New York (10*).

N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over Arizona at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the Rockies on Tuesday night. D'Backs starter Zac Gallen has done nothing but impress since making his big league debut last season but I believe he's in for a rough night here. Note that while Gallen's strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly early on this season, so are his walks. While his 2.81 ERA is terrific, he has already been tagged for three home runs through 16 innings of work. Enter Coors Field on Tuesday night. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He endured a disastrous 2019 campaign but let's not write him off just yet. Keep in mind, just two years ago Freeland posted a stellar 2.85 ERA in 33 big league starts. So far this season he has recorded a 2.41 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 18 2/3 innings. He's seen his walk totals drop under three per nine innings for the first time in his career. Take Colorado (10*).

My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Toronto at 6:37 pm et on Tuesday.

I'll take a flyer with the Marlins here as the Blue Jays face some considerable distraction as they play their first "home" game here at renovated Sahlen Field in Buffalo. Toronto continues to struggle out of the gates this season, never really recovering from an early layoff as a result of a postponed series with the Phillies. The Jays will have ace Hyun-Jin Ryu on the hill for this one but I can't help but feel that leaves them overvalued, especially with Ryu coming off a strong bounce-back performance against the Braves last week. Elieser Hernandez looked good in his season debut for the Marlins and I believe he'll be good enough to keep the Marlins in this game as well. Take Miami +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

Expect plenty of offensive fireworks as the Cubs and Indians do battle in a 2016 World Series rematch on Tuesday. Jon Lester is off to a tremendous start for the Cubs this season, perhaps turning back the hands of time after struggling last year. I'm not sure his success is sustainable. He's not missing a lot of bats and faces a tough Indians lineup here on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Adam Plutko is nothing more than a stop-gap for Cleveland as it goes through some starting rotation woes. He's been routinely owned by opposing bats over the course of his big league career, struggling as a starter in each of the last two seasons. He has posted a solid 2.57 ERA and 0.86 WHIP so far this season, but that's through just seven innings of work. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday.

I had a strong lean to the 'under' in Royals rookie Kris Bubic's most recent start, which ultimately turned out to be a 6-1 loss to the Cubs. Here, I look for plenty of offense as the suddenly surging Royals travel to Cincinnati to face the Reds. Bubic missed plenty of bats against the Cubs last time out but I'm not sure his success is sustainable. He'll be making his first road start of the season. Note that he made one start away from home back in Spring Training and got lit up for four earned runs and couldn't make it out of the second inning against the White Sox. Luis Castillo will counter for the Reds. His strikeout numbers are up so far this season but he has also been hit hard, allowing 18 hits and nine earned runs in 17 innings of work. After issuing just 2.6 walks per nine innings in 2018, Castillo handed out 3.7 last year and that number is up over three again so far this season. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Vegas at 10:30 pm et on Tuesday.

I simply feel we're going to see a much tighter series between these two teams than we did with the Blackhawks against the Oilers in the play-in round. I have a lot of respect for the Golden Knights defensively and fully expect them to do a good job of locking down the Blackhawks admittedly explosive offense. On the flip side, we really haven't seen the Knights get rolling offensively yet and to be honest, I don't think they're built to win many 5-4 or 6-5 type contests. Look for this to be the highest posted total we see all series. We'll take advantage in Game 1. Take the under (10*).