Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

My selection is on Houston minus the points over Dallas at 6:05 pm et on Saturday.

I'll lay the short number with the Rockets as they try to salvage one victory on their current three-game road trip. It hasn't been a good trip for Houston so far as it has been held to 91 points in back-to-back losses in Minnesota and Utah. I do expect a strong bounce-back performance here, however, as they face an opponent they've been beating up on for years. Yes, Dallas did take the first meeting between these two teams this season but it needed to shoot the lights out to do so, hitting 54% overall and 50% from beyond the arc. Note that the Mavs are expected to be without Dennis Smith Jr. on Saturday. He has been a key contributor this season, averaging over 13 points and four assists per game. Dallas has been terrific at home this season, going 10-2, but I do believe some regression is in order. Note that the Mavs haven't defeated the Rockets at home since April of 2016. Take Houston (10*).

Saturday NBA Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Dallas at 6:05 pm et on Saturday.

The first meeting between these two teams was a relatively high-scoring affair with the Mavs going into Houston and coming away with a 128-108 victory. It's worth noting that Dallas shot the lights out in that game, hitting 54% of their shots including 50% from beyond the arc. I expect things to settle down this time around, however, noting that the 'under' had cashed in the previous four matchups in this series, with none of those games coming even close to the total we're dealing with today. The Rockets are coming off back-to-back 91-point performances in losses in Minnesota and Utah. They shoot worse than 45% on the road while knocking down just 33% of their three-point attempts. The Mavericks have scored over 100 points in seven straight games but will likely be without Dennis Smith Jr. on Saturday. He's been a key contributor, averaging 13.5 points and 4.2 assists per game this season. Houston needs to tighten things up here as it tries to salvage on game on its three-game road trip. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Saturday.

I liked what I saw from the Grizzlies last night as they were in a tough spot in New Orleans but still managed to rally for a big road victory. Meanwhile, the Lakers faced a Spurs squad looking for quick revenge in San Antonio and absolutely buckled in the fourth quarter in a double-digit loss. I like the Grizzlies to keep it rolling on Saturday night as they return home, where they've gone 8-3 this season. The Lakers have five road wins to their credit this season but those have come against the Suns, Blazers, Kings, Heat and Cavs - all teams that are inferior to the Grizzlies. Memphis went through a bit of a lull in late-November but outside of that it has been consistently good this season, going 15-9 ATS overall. That's a stark contrast to the Lakers 10-14-1 ATS mark. Take Memphis (10*).

My selection is on New York minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Saturday.

It took a miserable shooting performance from the Raptors for the Nets to prevail in overtime last night, snapping an eight-game losing streak in the process. Now the Nets make the quick trip to Manhattan to face the Knicks at MSG, where they haven't managed a victory since March of 2017. New York is coming off back-to-back losses, first falling on a last-second three at home against the Wizards and then getting blown out in Boston. I do like the bounce-back spot here at home, where they've defeated the Nets by 21, 16 and 19 points in their last three meetings. Brooklyn owns the slightly better overall record but the Knicks have actually been better ATS, going 13-12-1 compared to the Nets 12-15 mark. Take New York (10*).

My selection is on Vegas over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Golden Knights have mismatches all over the ice in this one and I believe they're still slightly undervalued following their tough start to the season. Vegas checks in having won seven of its last eight games while Los Angeles has lost four of its last five, scoring a grand total of just nine goals in the process. By contrast, the Knights have lit the lamp nine times in their last two games alone. Home ice advantage has been non-existent for the Kings this season as they've gone 6-10-1 here at Staples Center. And of course it's worth noting that Vegas has taken three of four all-time meetings here with its only loss coming in overtime last February. Take Vegas (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Army at 3 pm et on Saturday.

The 'under' cashes each and every year in this matchup and while we're dealing with a very low total this time around, I still believe the number will prove to be too high. Army has its best defense in years and comes into this game on an incredible run, having allowed 22 points or less in regulation time in 10 straight games. Only in the Black Knights season-opener against Duke did they give up more than that number. While Navy did score a combined 65 points over its final two regular season games, those performances came against Tulsa and Tulane. They'll be facing a much tougher challenge here. There's no question its been a down year for Navy football as the Midshipmen check in with just three wins to their credit. The familiar matchup should help to keep them competitive, however, and I believe that lends itself to another relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams. Take the under (10*).