Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

My selection is on Boise State minus the points over Utah Vallley at 4 pm et on Saturday.

Boise State made national headlines with a stunning 79-78 home loss against little-known Hawaii Pacific to open its season earlier this week. You can be sure the Broncos have been stewing since that setback and certainly won't take it easy on Saturday's opponent, Utah Valley. UVU rolled to a 116-35 win over West Coast Baptist in its season-opener. With plenty of returning talent and high hopes in the Mountain West Conference, the Broncos obviously still have everything in front of them. They treated their opener like a preseason game and got caught. I don't think we'll see them make the same mistake here. Take Boise State (8*).

My selection is on Texas State minus the points over Louisiana-Lafayette at 5 pm et on Saturday.

Texas State entered this season with fairly high expectations, thought to be a key player in the Sun Belt Conference race. It hasn't played our that way at all though as the Bobcats enter this game riding a four-game SU and six-game ATS losing streak. I do think they're set up well to defeat the Ragin' Cajuns, however. Louisiana-Lafayette has endured a disappointing season in its own right but did pull off an 'upset' victory on the road against South Alabama last week. We'll lay the points with visiting Texas State noting that it has had three extra days to prepare for this critical matchup having not played since October 28th. Take Texas State (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Bowling Green and Eastern Michigan at 1 pm et on Saturday.

Easy choice here as we missed with the 'over' in Bowling Green's no-show at home against Buffalo last week. In fact, the Falcons have seen each of their last three games stay 'under' the total. I think that streak is in jeopardy on Saturday as they hit the road to face Eastern Michigan. The Eagles are off a low-scoring 'under' result of their own last week. They're also just one game removed from a contest that saw 74 points scored against Miami-Ohio. Look for both teams to open up the passing game on Saturday as this one sails 'over' the total. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Vegas over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Golden Knights spoiled a golden opportunity to string together consecutive wins on Thursday as they blew a 2-0 lead en route to a 6-3 home loss to the Lightning. We'll call for them to bounce back on Saturday night as they continue their six-game homestand against the red hot Ducks. Anaheim is in uncharted territory as it rides a five-game winning streak. We'll fade Anaheim here, however, as it comes off three straight 'upset' wins but two of those came at home and the other against a Stars team that was in a clear letdown spot off a win over Edmonton. We're dealing with a steep price but I believe it could be even higher. Take Vegas (8*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on California plus the points over Louisville at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Louisville is probably feeling pretty good about itself having reeled off three straight wins including a double-digit victory on the road against Virginia Tech last Saturday. With a date against Clemson on tap on Friday, I think this is a bit of a difficult spot to get up for against reeling California. The Golden Bears have lost back-to-back games SU and four in a row ATS. We know they're capable of hanging tough on the road, however, as they beat Boston College and took Virginia Tech to double-overtime in their last two road tilts. Last week, the Bears were right there in a difficult game against a good Virginia team before a pick-six sealed their fate late in the fourth quarter in a 31-21 loss. I think we'll see Cal finally get its running game going again in this matchup and effectively shorten proceedings and keep this one within the lofty pointspread. Take California (10*).

Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston +1.5 goals over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Bruins were written off by most when they suffered through a six-game slide in mid-October but they've responded by winning six of their last seven contests including five in a row entering Saturday's clash with the Maple Leafs in Toronto. The Leafs check in off a 5-3 win over Utah on Wednesday but they're 0-3 when factoring in the -1.5 puck-line when coming off a win by two goals or more this season. Meanwhile, the Bruins have posted an incredible 13-3 record when factoring in the +1.5-goal puck-line. Look for this one to go down to the wire at the very least. Take Boston +1.5 goals (10*).

My selection is on Niagara plus the points over Binghamton at 2 pm et on Saturday.

Niagara got off to a slow start to the season with an 83-63 drubbing on the road against Duquesne. It should benefit from stepping down in class on Saturday as it travels to Binghamton. Note that the Purple Eagles shot a miserable 20-of-48 from the field in that season-opener, while allowing the Dukes to connect on a blistering 31-of-55 field goal attempts. A much better showing is probable here as Binghamton is 1-1 with its win coming against little-known Rochester Tech. Even in that game, Binghamton only managed to make good on 22-of-51 field goal attempts and score 66 points. Take Niagara (8*).

My selection is on the Islanders over the Rangers at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

There's no denying the Rangers are playing better hockey now than they were earlier in the season but coming off a big 4-1 road win in Detroit last night, we'll step in and fade them at home, noting they've lost all six games at Madison Square Garden this season. The Islanders had their two-game winning streak snapped in overtime against the Bruins on Tuesday before dropping a lopsided 5-2 decision, also at home, against the Wild last night. I do think the Isles are a team with a lot of upside despite their current skid and this is obviously a big step-up spot against the rival Rangers in what will be their first meeting of the season. We'll back the visitors at a generous price. Take the Islanders (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:40 pm et on Saturday.

The Clippers were blown out for a second straight game two nights ago, as they dropped a 115-102 decision in the front half of this home-and-home set with the Suns. That marked three straight losses SU and six in a row ATS for the Clips. They're well-positioned to bounce back on Saturday as they look to return the favor at home, where they defeated Phoenix 129-102 earlier this season. The Suns have displayed a strong home-road dichotomy to this point, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS at home but 0-4 SU and ATS on the road. While we've seen flashes of brilliance from Phoenix in the early going, I don't think they'll ultimately be a factor in the Western Conference. Kawhi Leonard will miss this game as he deals with an ankle injury but I think his absence is being over-compensated for with this line. Take Los Angeles (8*).

Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Nuggets could have taken it easy in the front half of a back-to-back situation last night but instead they 'emptied the tank' in a 129-104 rout of the short-handed Warriors. That game would have been a lot closer were it not for Golden State shooting a miserable 40-for-95 from the field. Indiana enters this game rested having not played since Wednesday, when it was 'upset' at home against Brooklyn. The Pacers are of course missing too many key pieces to be a true contender this season and they're off to a 1-7 start but they've at least been competitive, going 5-3 ATS and having yet to suffer consecutive ATS defeats. I do think they'll use their fresh legs to push the tempo in this matchup and it's worth noting that they have shown the ability to play some defense, limiting five of their last six opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The only time the Nuggets were held to 42 or less made field goals this season they were 'upset' on the road against the Trail Blazers on Halloween Night. Take Indiana (10*).

SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Missouri plus the points over Texas A&M at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

While Texas A&M is firmly planted in the College Football Playoff conversation and still undefeated on the season, Missouri's bandwagon has been effectively cleared as it checks in off two losses in its last three games (following a 5-0 start). We'll grab the points with the Tigers in this spot, however, as both teams enter off their bye week on what I feel is a fairly level playing field with this game being played at Mizzou. The Tigers have been right there in their two losses, going 1-1 ATS in a three-point loss at home against Alabama and a seven-point setback at Vanderbilt. Texas A&M has faced a difficult schedule on paper but the likes of Florida and LSU haven't been as tough as expected and even Notre Dame - who it staged a big 'upset' against in South Bend early in the season - has two losses. We'll grab all the points we can get with a revenge-minded Tigers squad after suffering a 41-10 rout in College Station in last year's meeting. Take Missouri (10*).

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Penn State plus the points over Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Few will give Penn State any chance of handing Indiana its first loss of the season on Saturday. Of course, we don't need an 'upset' win to cash this ticket as the Nittany Lions are catching nearly two touchdowns against the Hoosiers. Penn State was handed a predictable 38-14 defeat on the road against Ohio State last Saturday. It's certainly been a trying campaign for the Nittany Lions and prior to last week's contest they had emptied the tank in consecutive one-point defeats against Northwestern and Iowa. Indiana checks into this game off back-to-back 50+ point performances in blowout wins over UCLA and Maryland. I simply feel the Hoosiers are laying too many points in a game where they could easily overlook down-trodden Penn State. Take Penn State.

My selection is on Colorado plus the points over West Virginia at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We'll fade West Virginia as it returns home off last Saturday's massive 'upset' win on the road against Houston. That marked the Mountaineers second straight ATS victory but only served to snap their five-game losing streak SU. Colorado will look to bounce back from consecutive blowout defeats at the hands of Utah and Arizona. The Buffaloes have certainly struggled at times this season but their two-game ATS slide marks their longest of the campaign. In a similar vein, the Mountaineers two-game ATS winning streak is their longest of the season. I think the oddsmakers have a difficult time handling matchups like this with it being the two teams' first ever Big 12 matchup. I see this game going down to the wire at the very least. Take Colorado (8*).

My selection is on Air Force plus the points over San Jose State at 6 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are desperate to keep their Bowl hopes alive and neither has met a close game it doesn't like this season. With that being said, we'll grab all the points we can get with underdog Air Force on Saturday. The Falcons check in off a tough 20-17 loss at home against Army last Saturday. Meanwhile, San Jose State outlasted Hawaii in a 45-38 shootout. Scoring hasn't been a problem for the Spartans but keeping opposing offenses at bay has been. Teams that have elected to run on San Jose State have found plenty of success doing so and that should be the gameplan for Air Force on Saturday as well. Look for this one to go down to the wire at the very least. Take Air Force (8*).

My selection is on Iowa State plus the points over TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

TCU comes off its bye week and with a difficult schedule ahead, it would be easy for the Horned Frogs to chalk this up as a likely victory before ever kicking off on Saturday afternoon. Iowa State is reeling off four straight losses both SU and ATS. All is not lost, however, as the Cyclones started 5-0 so they just need one more win to gain Bowl eligibility and their remaining schedule is manageable. I think this line will prove too high as the Cyclones look to bounce back off an unthinkable three straight 'upset' losses against a TCU team feeling good about itself off back-to-back victories. Take Iowa State (8*).