Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Sunday.

This total opened right around where I expected it - higher than it should be in my opinion. We won with Connecticut in its season-opening win in Atlanta on Friday. It faces a much tougher test here against a loaded Mercury squad that checks in off an upset win in Minnesota. The Mercury got off to a slow start offensively in that contest, scoring just 33 first half points before putting up 44 in the final 20 minutes. While Phoenix is known for its offensive prowess, it can play some defense as well, led by perhaps the league's toughest defending in Brittney Griner. The Mercury swatted nine blocks and made six steals against a quality Lynx squad on Friday, holding them to 40% shooting in the two-point victory. Meanwhile, the Sun allowed just 67 points on 36% shooting against an admittedly subpar Dream squad. While Connecticut did score 78 points in the victory, it was actually a rather sloppy performance as it turned the ball over 20 times. I would anticipate seeing the Sun do a better job of running their offense here, but likely not with the same level of production (they shot 44% overall and 44% from three-point range against Atlanta) against a tougher opponent here. Note that the 'under' has gone 56-32 the last 88 times the Mercury have come off an outright underdog victory on the road. The 'under' is 32-15 in the Sun's last 47 games as a home favorite of three points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Sunday.

NOTE: I would also suggest playing this game 'under' 4.0 runs for the first five innings if that option is available at your book. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams yesterday - a stark contrast to Friday's 3-2 walk-off victory for the Rays. On Sunday, I'm expecting a return to 'normal' as Marcus Stroman tries to help the Mets avoid the three-game sweep in St. Petersburg. Stroman is off to a terrific start this season, posting a 2.01 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. While he has recorded a poor 47.0% hard-hit ball percentage, he's made up for it by keeping the ball down, inducing ground balls at an incredible 55.1% rate which as you may know is just par for the course for his career. While his strikeout rate is down slightly from last season, so are his walks. While the Rays have put together strong offensive showings in two of their last three games, I do expect Stroman to keep them at bay on Sunday afternoon. Josh Fleming will counter for Tampa Bay. He's been quietly effective for the Rays since breaking into the bigs last season. Fleming recorded a 34.0% hard-hit ball percentage last season and is right on par with that again here in 2021 at 34.4%. Like Stroman, he's done an incredible job of keeping the ball on the ground, posting a career 61.5% ground ball percentage. Over more than 60 career big league innings, Fleming has held opposing hitters to a .219 collective batting average. He'll be facing a Mets club that has been held to five runs or less in seven of their last eight games. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

We missed with the 'under' in Friday's matchup between these two teams. I actually feel we deserved a better fate in that one as the 76ers did exactly what we expected them to do, holding the Magic to under 40% shooting. Unfortunately, Philadelphia went off offensively in that one and ultimately sent the game just a bucket over the total. Here, we're likely to see a number of Philadelphia's stars sit out but I still expect the Sixers to go hard defensively and keep a weak Magic offense at bay. This is a Doc Rivers-coached team after all. Orlando has been woeful offensively on the road, averaging 102.2 points per game on a miserable 42.2% shooting this season. We have seen the Magic continue to play hard defensively, however, holding five straight opponents to under 49% shooting entering this contest. Despite their 18-16 o/u record away from home, they've actually held the opposition to a respectable 46.1% in the visitors role this season. Finally, note that the 'under' has cashed in six of the last nine meetings in this series. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Lakers turned in an energetic performance yesterday in Indiana, welcoming back both Lebron James and Anthony Davis and pouring in 122 points in a seven-point victory over the Pacers. We missed with the 'under' in that contest but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Sunday. The Pelicans season essentially ended when they lost Zion Williamson to injury and they check into this one having lost three games in a row, also having shot 46.9% or worse from the field in seven consecutive games. In addition to Zion's absence, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball have missed time as well and are unlikely to play in Sunday's regular season finale. Off consecutive subpar defensive efforts against the Rockets and Pacers, I look for the Lakers to make a concerted effort to clamp down on the Pelicans offense here. Keep in mind, the 'under' is 22-12 with the Lakers on the road this season, where they've held opponents to 45.9% shooting. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Hawks in their most recent game - a blowout victory over the Magic on Thursday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as Atlanta looks to clamp down on the undermanned, but surging Rockets, and close out the regular season on a positive note. Atlanta is locked in defensively right now, having held its last two opponents to 44.6% and 38.3% shooting. The Hawks have been an underrated defensive team at home all season, in fact, holding the opposition to 45.4% shooting. Here, I don't see much reason for Atlanta to really push the pace, especially against a Rockets squad that has thrived offensively in that sort of environment lately, scoring 120+ points in three consecutive games. In fact, Houston, checks in riding a five-game ATS winning streak, culminating with an outright upset win over the Clippers at home on Friday. Kelly Olynyk has led the charge lately but I look for the Hawks interior defense to put the clamps on him here. Take the under (10*).

Sunday NHL Free play. My selection is on Vegas over Minnesota at 3 pm et on Sunday.

This has the makings of an entertaining series between the Wild and Golden Knights with Minnesota having held its own here in Vegas, taking four of the last seven matchups at T-Mobile Arena. With that being said, I do like the Knights to hold serve in the series-opener on Sunday, noting that they've gone 21-7, outscoring opponents by 1.3 goals per game on average here at home this season. Minnesota checks in having gone 13-29 when seeking revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that situation. The Knights took the last meeting 3-2 in overtime in Minnesota back on May 5th. We have seen some money come in on the Wild in advance of this contest, dropping the Knights into a very reasonable price range on Sunday afternoon. Take Vegas (8*).

Sean missed the mark with his first release of the NHL Playoffs last night but regulars know he's poised to bounce back in a BIG WAY on Sunday! Don't miss Murph's 10* NHL West Division First Round Total of the Year plus more winners from the NBA, MLB and WNBA! Your best bet is a weekly or monthly subscription package, giving you access to ALL of Murph's winners every day!

NHL West Division First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Vegas at 3 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the 'under' in the most recent meeting between these two teams but I'll go the other way and back the 'over' in this spot. While the Golden Knights are heavily favored to win this series I don't expect the Wild to back down one bit as the series opens in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon. Note that Minnesota has actually taken four of the last seven meetings here at T-Mobile Arena and checks in a perfect 7-0, averaging 3.9 goals per game when coming off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has gone 7-1 with the Wild revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Interestingly, we've also seen the 'over' go 13-3 with the Knights playing just their second game in the last five days over the last two seasons, with an average total of 7.4 goals in that spot. The Knights have of course been dominant at home this season, skating to a 21-7 record while averaging 3.5 goals per game with the 'over' cashing at a 16-12 clip. After a very brief scoring lull in early April, the Knights went on a tear down the stretch, scoring four goals or more in 11 of their final 16 regular season games. Likewise, the Wild also picked up the pace offensively down the stretch, producing four goals or more in 10 of their last 14 contests. Take the over (10*).