Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

My selection is on New England minus the points over Tennessee at 7 pm et on Saturday.

I'll lay the points again with the Patriots this week as they once again put an emphasis on winning on the road after going 3-5 away from home during the regular season last year. Last week's blowout win over the Lions was never in doubt and while this one isn't likely to be as lopsided, I still believe we'll see New England win and cover. Even without Tom Brady on the field, the Pats suddenly have a solid QB rotation by preseason standards with veteran Brian Hoyer and rookie Jarrett Stidham. Stidham in particular stood out last week, throw for 179 yards on 14 pass completions while also adding a touchdown. Even with the Titans win in Philadelphia last week, they're still just 1-4 ATS in the preseason under the guidance of former Patriot Mike Vrabel. Bill Bellichick's excellent preseason track record with the Pats is well-known. Look for him to school another former subject here. Take New England (10*).

NFLX Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Detroit at 8 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the favored Texans as they try to bounce back from last week’s ‘not as close as it looked’ 28-26 loss in Green Bay. First of all, the Lions are now 1-4 ATS in the preseason since Matt Patricia took over last year. They were a complete no-show in last week’s blowout loss to the Patriots. I don’t see this as an ideal bounce-back spot against an equally hungry Texans squad coming off a loss. Detroit will likely give plenty of time to Tom Savage and David Fales under center again this week, which doesn’t bode well for its offense after they combined to complete 7-of-17 passes for only 102 yards and an interception last week. The Texans have a proven preseason performer at quarterback in Joe Webb. He threw for 286 yards and a touchdown to go along with a pair of interceptions and also ran for 47 yards on six carries last week. Credit Houston for not folding the tent after falling behind 28-10 entering the fourth quarter last week, putting up 16 unanswered points in the game’s final 14 minutes. Note that the Texans are 12-7-1 ATS under Bill O’Brien in the preseason. Take Houston (10*).

My selection is on the ‘over’ between New England and Tennessee at 7 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the Patriots last week, noting that they were putting an emphasis on winning road games in the preseason this year after struggling to a 3-5 record away from home during the regular season last year. They put up a whopping 31 points in their win over the Lions. It's hard to say whether their defensive performance had more to do with their own play, or the awful play of the Lions. The Titans have a solid preseason QB rotation with Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill and Logan Woodside. Both Tannehill and Woodside threw for at least 130 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 27-10 win over Philadelphia. While Tennessee is certainly a run-first team, I'm not sure we're going to see that here in the preseason. We did see some defensive breakdowns from Tennessee in last week’s win, most notably on a 75-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter. The Eagles went rather vanilla offensively in that game. I expect New England to open things up a little more, as noted earlier, Bill Bellichick is putting an emphasis on winning these road games in the preseason. Note that the Pats threw the football 38 times and racked up well over 300 passing yards and three touchdowns in a game that was never in doubt in Detroit last week. Take the over (10*).