Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

With both of these teams playing at a reasonably slow pace lately and neither shooting particularly well, I believe this total will prove too high on Wednesday. Atlanta has gotten off just 82, 88 and 74 field goal attempts over its last three contests, knocking down fewer than 40 field goals in all three. The good news is, the Hawks have been limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities as well, holding nine of their last 10 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. It's a similar story for Orlando. It has gotten off 80 or fewer FG attempts in three straight games. You would have to go back seven contests to find the last time the Magic knocked down 40 or more field goals. Meanwhile, they've held three straight opponents to 82 or fewer FG attempts, including the red hot Nets in a 109-102 loss on Monday. Brooklyn actually shot the lights out in that contest (44 made field goals) yet still scored 'only' 109 points in a game that stayed comfortably 'under' the total. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Portland plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday.

While the Lakers have gone 3-2 ATS over their last five games, I don't believe you're going to win many games, let alone cover a lot of pointspreads when you're allowing the opposition to get off 100 or more field goal attempts on a regular basis. That's the case with Los Angeles as each of its last five opponents have hoisted up 100+ FG attempts. Four of those five opponents knocked down more than 40 field goals and while the Lakers do catch the Blazers in a back-to-back spot, I also feel that Portland will be in a less-than-giving mood after coughing up a double-digit fourth quarter lead in a home loss against the Clippers last night. Portland has held four of its last five opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts with the exception being a wild 132-129 overtime victory in New York last Friday. The Lakers recently enjoyed an offensive surge but have now been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four contests, despite the frenetic pace those games have been played at. The Blazers took the first meeting between these two teams back in October and while you might think the Lakers are poised to get their revenge here, the fact is they have defeated Portland by more than five points just once in five meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. Take Portland (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Saudi Arabia and Mexico at 2 pm et on Wednesday.

This has the potential to be the highest-scoring match on Wednesday's World Cup slate. Both lineups rate highly up front but poorly at the back-end (in this tournament to date). Al-Shehri ranks among the most dangerous strikers in World Cup play according to my ratings. The same goes for Hirving Lozano up front for Mexico. Both back-lines can be had. Mexican goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa - one of the oldest players in the entire tournament - fared well in a 0-0 draw with Poland in the opener but struggled mightily against a tougher opponent in Argentina last time out. Saudi Arabia is capable of putting Ochoa under duress for extended stretches in this one and I'm confident it can deliver on at least one occasion. Meanwhile, the Mexicans need more than just a strong showing to advance - they need a fistful of goals and there is a path to that outcome with no one in the final-third of the field for Saudi Arabia capable of truly leaving their mark on this contest. Again, both sides are well-positioned to 'go for it' in this group stage finale and I'm confident we'll see at least three goals. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Tunisia +1.5 goals over France at 10 am et on Wednesday.

Short on time with kickoff fast approaching but we’ll take a shot with Tunisia now that +1.5 prices are more widely available. Tunisia the forgotten team in this group after a 1-0 loss to Australia. Still have a shot at advancing but need a win along with a DEN-AUS draw. Not outside the realm of possibility given how this tourney has proceeded. Tunisia can be a frustrating squad to break down and a positive result isn’t an absolute necessity for the French here. Take Tunisia +1.5 goals (8*).

Wednesday NHL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Chicago at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday.

I expect plenty of offensive fireworks on Wednesday night at the United Center, as is often the case when these two teams match up. Note that three of four meetings between the Oilers and Blackhawks have totalled at least seven goals going back to the start of last season. Chicago has spent most of its time scooping the puck out of its own net lately, yielding 5, 6, 5, 6, 3 and 7 goals over its last six contests. After scoring eight goals in its last two games, both victories, Edmonton should be able to keep it rolling offensively in this one but nothing seems to come easily for the Oilers these days. Chicago dropped an ugly 7-2 decision against the streaking Jets last time out and I'm confident we'll see it play with pride and keep this game competitive on Wednesday, noting that it has scored four or more goals in three straight meetings in this series. Edmonton checks in allowing 3.5 goals per game on the road this season and here we'll note that the 'over' is 33-17 with the Oilers coming off consecutive games in which they scored three or more goals over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.4 goals in that situation. Take the over.

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Rangers are reeling off three straight losses and we've successfully faded them in their last two contests as they blew a 3-0 third period lead in a 4-3 loss to the Oilers and a 2-0 first period lead in a 5-3 defeat at the hands of the Devils, with both games coming at home. Here, they'll obviously be looking to tighten things up and I do think they benefit from stepping down in class after facing the first-place Devils on Monday to take on the second-last (in the Eastern Conference) Senators on Wednesday. Ottawa does check in off consecutive wins out west but now faces the tough 'first game back off a long road trip' situation, noting that New York has been much tougher defensively on the road compared to at home this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-11 with the Rangers coming off a home loss over the last two seasons and better still, the 'under' is 13-2 when that home defeat came by two goals or more, as is the case here. That latter situation has produced an average total of just 4.8 goals. All three of last season's matchups between these two teams totalled six goals or less with the two games played here in Ottawa reaching only five and three total goals. Take the under (10*).

Wednesday NBA Free play. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Spurs have now dropped the cash in six straight games. A matchup with the Thunder could finally be the cure for what ails them on Wednesday, however, noting that Oklahoma City has gone 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS over its last six contests, running into a major shooting slump over its last two games, knocking down only 38 and 34 field goals. That's a stark contrast to the Spurs, who have actually gotten off 100+ field goal attempts in three of their last four games and made good on a whopping 53 of those attempts in Saturday's wild 143-138 loss to the Lakers. On the flip side, San Antonio has held seven straight foes to 85 or fewer field goal attempts - those opponents have quite simply shot the lights out. While that has a lot to do with the Spurs defensive warts, I do think Gregg Popovich will have his team ready for this one, noting that the Spurs took three of four meetings in this series last season and have outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.7 points when playing on the road after five or more consecutive ATS losses (26-game sample size). Take San Antonio.

Eastern Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the Wizards as they come off an impressive 142-127 win over the T'Wolves on Monday that snapped a three-game losing streak. All three of those losses came on their most recent road trip so it won't be difficult to sharpen their focus for this brief two-game trip. Note that Washington has undoubtedly had this rematch circled since getting throttled 128-86 at home against the Nets back in October. Prior to that, the Wizards had won consecutive meetings in this series, including a 117-103 victory here in Brooklyn last February. The Nets won but failed to cover against the Magic on Monday (we won with Orlando in that game). They've been shooting the lights out for weeks but I still think they're working with a slim margin for error as they've gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games overall. Case in point, the Nets shot better than 54% from the field on Monday but still scored 'only' 109 points in an ATS loss. Washington comes in hot offensively as well, making good on 40+ field goals in seven straight games while hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in four of its last six contests. The Wizards last two opponents have shot exceptionally well but they've held those two teams to 80 and 84 FG attempts, limiting each of their last three foes to less than 90 attempts after five of their previous six opponents had eclipsed that number. Finally, we'll note that Brooklyn checks in a miserable 2-13 ATS the last 15 times it has played at home after winning five or six of its last seven games, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 points in that situation. Take Washington (10*).

My selection is on Denmark over Australia at 10 am et on Wednesday.

I don't believe Denmark's World Cup journey ends here. Australia's stunning 1-0 victory over Tunisia puts the Danes on the back foot entering this contest on Wednesday, but I believe they're still well-positioned to advance from the group stage with a convincing win here. I haven't been overly impressed by anything Australia has done in this tournament to date. It was never really challenged the way we figured it would be against Tunisia last time out. The Aussie back-line still rates out quite poorly through two matches, largely due to the awful showing against France, admittedly. In stark contrast, Denmark gets stronger as you get into its final-third, with the trio of Christensen, Kjer and Andersen among the best defenders in the tournament and keeper Kasper Schmeichel also having performed well through two matches. I'm not going to let a late goal allowed against France lead me away from the Danes here as they more than likely advance with a victory. I do think it's worth paying the tariff to back them on the three-way line rather than laying the goal, however, simply due to the potential of them staking out a lead and then parking the bus. Take Denmark (8*).