Will Rogers Handicapping Review & Free Picks Page

The set-up: The Kings are 19-29 and the Avs are 21-26. Clearly neither side is happy where it sits currently, but after a rare 2-1 road win over Dallas, I think that LA suffers a predictable letdown here. The Avs though will be eager to get back on track here after a 5-2 road loss to the Senators. LA is averaging only 2.00 goals over its last 11 games. Kings’ net minder Jon Quick is just 2-6 with a  2.96 GAA on the road. The Avs average 3.25 goals and allow 2.85 at home. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is just 12-13 (-3.8 units) this year vs. teams with losing records, while Colorado is 7-2 in its last nine home games following a non-conference road loss by two goals or more. Lay the price with confidence.

8* Colorado.

The set-up: This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. After their 76-55 road win over Portland to move back to .500 in league play (2-2), I believe the Toreros will suffer a predictable letdown here. The Gaels improved to 3-1 in conference action after an impressive home win over Santa Clara last time out. Overall San Diego averages 75.8 PPG, while allowing 67.7. Saint Mary’s is averaging 77.2 PPG, while allowing 65.6. The Gaels have quietly been playing a lot better with three straight wins and I believe they carry that momentum over here vs. this now complacent San Diego side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Mary’s is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while SD is 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory and 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU win. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

10* St Marys

The set-up: After four straight wins, I think the Jets come up short here in this difficult road arena. The Jets are primed for a letdown finally in my estimation after their very satisfying 5-1 win over Nashville on Thursday. The Stars lost to Winnipeg 6-1 on January 6th and six then it’s lost five of its last six. That includes four straight. It’s a revenge game for the Stars, who will be risking life and limb to get off the schneid. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up well for the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Winnipeg is just 17-18 (-6.9 units) in its last 35 after a three-game unbeaten streak, while Dallas is 14-8 (+3.3 units) in its last 22 after three or more consecutive losses. Play on the “hungrier” home side.

8* Stars.

The set-up: This sets up great in two ways from Edmonton today. From a “situational” stand point, and the numbers/trends are also working in its favor in my opinion. Simply that the Flames played at home to Detroit last night and I believe they come in flat here in the second game of the back-to-back. The Oilers though come in with a ton of momentum after consecutive wins over the Sabres and the Canucks. As stated above, I think this one sets up great from a situational stand point for the home side. 

The pick: Additionally note that Calgary is still just 13-14 (-3.3 units) after playing three straight home games, while Edmonton is 11-7 (+3.4 units) in its last 18 vs. teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play on Edmonton.

8* Oilers.

The set-up: I think that from a situational stand point that this one sets up beautifully for the underdog visiting side. Philadelphia comes in off consecutive victories (7-4 over Wild and 4-3 over Bruins) and it’s had two whole nights off coming into this one. Montreal on the other hand enters off a very satisfying 4-1 win in Columbus just last night. Can you say “letdown” spot?!

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is 7-2 in its last nine road games after back-to-back wins, while Montreal is just 16-20 (-3.4 units) in its last 36 when playing on back-to-back days. This one has “upset” written all over it.

8* Flyers.

The set-up: Both teams come in off losses. I think home court will prove to be the difference maker for the hungry Pacers though. Dallas lost 105-101 at home to the Spurs on Wednesday most recently, while Indiana lost 120-96 at home to Philadelphia on Thursday. While they haven’t played yet this year, the Mavs have won three straight in the series, including a 109-103 victory in the latest back on Feb. 26th, 2018. The Mavs though have dropped five of their last seven and overall they’re just 11-11 ATS on the road. Dallas averages 109.8 PPG and it allows 109.7. Indiana is 11-10 ATS at home. Overall the Pacers average 108.7 PPG though, while allowing just 103.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Indiana is a solid 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

10* PACERS

The set-up: Virginia will look to build off its impressive 81-59 win over Virginia Tech last Tuesday. The Cavs were efficient 58.5 percent from the floor collectively. Virginia is 16-0 this year. Overall the Cavs allow just 51.7 PPG, ranked No. 1 in the country. The Blue Devils come in off an exhausting 95-91 OT loss to Syracuse in its latest action and I think it’ll be “dog tired” here after that marathon. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for a lower-scoring under. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though by Virginia has seen the total go “under” the number in its last eight as an underdog and in 19 of its last 26 on the road, while Duke has seen the total go “under” in 11 of 14 as a favorite this year and in seven of nine at home. This number is high, play the “under.”

10* Under

The set-up: The Tar Heels look poised for a letdown here after their 75-69 hoe win over Notre Dame in my opinion as they hit the road to face a Hurricanes side which posted a 76-65 home win over Wake in its latest action. The Tar Heels were blown out by Louisville in their pervious contest, but Luke Maye posted 14 points and ten boards to help UNC back into the winners circle. Note thought that Two of the Tar Heels four losses have come against ranked opponents. UNC comes in averaging 87.4 PPG, while allowing 73.2. Miami Florida was led by Chris Lykes in its latest win with 25 points. The Hurricanes are 7-2 at home. Overall they average 76.5 PPG, while allowing 70.1. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but UNC is still just 12-15 ATS in its last 27 on the road and just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 after failing to cover the spread in two or more straight games, while Miami Florida is 3-1 ATS in its last four following a conference contest. Grab the points, expecting “nail-biter.”

8* Miami