Will Rogers Handicapping Review & Free Picks Page

The set-up: The Astros won 3-0 last night, handing the Angels their fifth straight loss, as well as the team's 10th in its last 14 games. Time is running out on LA, as the Angels have fallen 3 1/2 games back of the Twins for the AL's final wild card spot (tied with the Rangers) and have just nine games remaining (Twins have only eight). Houston has won seven of its last eight contests and is six victories shy of the second 100-win campaign in franchise history. More importantly, with Cleveland's loss at Seattle on Friday, the Astros inched within 1 1/2 games of the Indians for the AL's best record (top record would have home field edge in possible ALCS showdown).

The pitching matchup: Bud Norris (2-5 & 4.53 ERA) takes the mound for LA and Charlie Morton (12-7 & 3.75 ERA) for Houston. Norris has made 57 relief appearances in 2017 but this marks just his second start. In his first, back on Sep. 15th, he tossed two scoreless innings versus Texas in a game the Angels would win, 7-6. However, he is coming off a rough relief outing just this past Tuesday against Cleveland, in which he gave up three runs, three hits and two walks in two-thirds of an inning. Norris spent his first 4 1/2 seasons with the Astros and will be making just his second career start against his former team, the other being a victory in which he gave up two runs on four hits over six innings in 2013 while pitching for Baltimore. Morton defeated Seattle in his last outing, giving up one run on five hits over six innings. He began his career back in 2008 and entered the 2017 season with a 46-71 career mark. Clearly, this has been a "career year" for the 33-year-old. Morton is 2-0 with a 3.74 ERA in four career starts against the Angels (teams are 4-0!), including 1-0 with a 2.70 mark in two starts this year (both Houston wins).

The pick: LA will be in "must win" situations the rest of the way and it can hardly be comforting that they have to rely on Bud Norris to start in this one. Meanwhile, as noted, Morton is having a "career season," and in particular, comes in 9-3 with a 3.50 ERA in 15 home starts (Houston is 10-5), while limited opposing batters to a .220 BA. Make Houston a 10* play.

The set-up: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Michigan State Spartans meet Saturday at Spartan Stadium, the site of one of CFB's many "Game of the Century" contests through the years, back on November 19, 1966 (ended in one of CFB's most famous ties, 10-10). Both schools opened the 2016 season ranked, Michigan State at No. 12 and Notre Dame at No. 10. However, the Spartans finished 3-9 and Notre Dame just 4-8. Less was expected from these legendary programs here in 2017. Notre Dame has opened 2-1, losing only 20-19 to Georgia, which is currently ranked 11th. Michigan State is 2-0, winning home games against MAC schools Bowling Green (35-10) and Western Michigan (28-14). The Spartans had a bye last weekend and this home game against Notre dame represents the school's third home game in a season in which the Spartans open with four consecutive home contests (Iowa visits East Lansing, next Saturday).

Notre Dame: Much was expected of new starting QB Brandon Wimbush. His passing numbers are underwhelming after three games (50.5% for 491 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs) but he's run for 314 yards (6.4 YPC) and six TDs. ND's rushing game has been spectacular, averaging 330.7 YPG to rank 5th in the nation (RB Josh Adams leads the way with 443 yards on 7.9 YPC with two TDs). Defensively, Notre Dame is allowing 18.7 PPG.

Michigan State: QB Brian Lewerke is completing 64.8 percent of his passes for 411 yards with four TDs and just one interception. Lewerke is also the team's leading rusher (150 yards on 8.8 YPC) for a running game which averages 255.5 YPG. Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 12.0 PPG (12th) and the team's 203.5 YPG allowed ranks second in the entire nation. The question is, MSU's competition so far has not been the best.

The pick: Michigan State ranks second among opponents in all-time victories (29) over Notre Dame, trailing only USC (37). With its stout defense, many feel like the Spartans as a home dog is the play. However, I differ. Notre Dame's rushing attack is dominant and its defense has looked way better than last year's unit, which allowed 27.8 PPG. Notre Dame has converted all of its red zone opportunities, tied with 19 other schools at 100%. However, no team has as had as many opportunities as The Irish, who are 19-for-19. Make Notre Dame a 10* play.

The set-up: The 1-1 Arkansas State Red Wolves of the Sun Belt will travel to Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas to take of the AAC's SMU Mustangs, who have opened their season 2-1. The Red Wolves opened with a tightly-contested 43-36 loss in Lincoln against Nebraska, before seeing their game with Miami-Fla. canceled to due to Hurricane Irma. ASU picked up its first win of 2017 by routing Arkansas-Pine Bluff at home, 48-3 last Saturday. SMU opened its season with home wins over SF Austin (58-14) and North Texas (54-32) but then could not slow down then-No. 20 TCU last Saturday in Fort Worth, losing 56-36. SMU gets Arkansas St. this Saturday and then UConn next Saturday (both at home), so the Mustangs have to be 'smelling' a 4-1 start, not bad for a program that was just 5-7 last year, plus 2-10 and 1-11 the previous two seasons.

Arkansas State: QB Justice Hansen is completing 70.7 percent of his passes for 751 yards with eight TDs and just two interceptions. It's only two games but ASU's 385.5 YPG through the air ranks 8th-best in the nation. The defense had its problems with Nebraska (43 points allowed on 463 yards) but then the three points allowed vs. Ark-Pine Bluff, makes the defensive stat sheet look somewhat better.

SMU: QB Ben Hicks is completing just 48.4 percent of his passes but he's thrown for 729 yards with eight TDs and three interceptions. Hicks and Rafe Peavey have combined for nine touchdown passes this season and an average of 318.3 YPG passing (20th-best). Freeman (151 yards) and Jones (150 yards) lead a rushing attack which averages 155.3 YPG. All told, it has translated into 49.3 PPG or 6th-best in the nation. SMU couldn't stop TCU at all (56 points on 619 yards) and will enter this game with its defense allowing 34.0 PPG (105th).

The pick: OK, so is the Over the play? I've had great success so far in 2017 by "playing under" on more than a few of these games with extremely high totals. That's the angle once again here, as I make the Under an 8* play.

The set-up: A pair of 2-1 teams square off on Saturday at Columbia, South Carolina, as Louisiana Tech takes on South Carolina. The Bulldogs routed Nothwestern State 52-24 to open the season but then found themselves on the wrong side of a 57-21 score at home vs. Mississippi State in their second game (just ask LSU if Miss. St. is any good). South Carolina opened 2-0 in 2017 but will need to find a way to win without its top playmaker, something it couldn't do last Saturday. WR Deebo Samuel had five TDs in the team's first two games (both wins) and then had a 68-yard TD catch on the first play from scrimmage in last week's game vs. Kentucky. However, he suffered a broken left leg and was lost for the season, as South Carolina went on to lose 23-13.

La. Tech: Head coach Skip Holtz has led the Bulldogs to three consecutive nine-win seasons, each ending in a bowl victory. This year's starting QB is J'Mar Smith, who's thrown for 722 yards, including three plays of 53 yards or longer, but has completed barely half of his passes (51.5%). Smith had 306 yards passing in the win over Western Ky, completing 22 of 39 (one TD and one INT). La. Tech averages 32.0 PPG but allows 34.3 per, ranking 108th in the nation.

South Carolina: QB Jake Bentley threw for 304 yards and two TDs against Kentucky but he also was intercepted twice. The Gamecocks have averaged only 85.7 YPG on the ground (121st) and now that Samuels is out, South Carolina will need to find a way to perk up its offense. "I think we've got some capable guys," head coach Will Muschamp told the media on how he might replace Samuel. "Shi Smith is a freshman we are trying to train up. Bryan Edwards has been a dependable guy. Next man up has to be our mentality." Muschamp can rely on his solid defense, which has allowed 21.3 PPG.

The pick: After getting smoked by Miss. State 57-21, La. Tech is eager to show it can compete with an SEC opponent. However, if only wishing could make it so. La. Tech is just 2-9 SU in non-conference away games under Holtz. Not enough points here to take the Bulldogs (a C-USA team) against an SEC opponent. Make South Carolina an 8* play.

The set-up: The Florida State Seminoles opened their 2017 season against preseason No. 1 Alabama in Atlanta. FSU not only lost a game back on Sep. 2, it also lost its starting QB, Deondre Francois to a season-ending knee injury. To add insult to injury, the Seminoles have not played since that game, as the effects of Hurricane Irma have forced the Seminoles to cancel/postpone games against ULM (9/9) and Miami-Fl (9/16). This marks CFB's fourth full weekend and FSU will finally be playing its second game of the 2017 season, when it hosts 2-1 NC State. The Wolfpack opened with a 35-28 home to loss to South Carolina but then beat Marshall 37-20 and Furman 49-16. FSU won 24-20 at NC State last season, giving them eight wins over the last 10 meetings (FSU leads the series 25-11 all-time).

NC State: QB Ryan Finley had a solid season in 2016 for NC State, throwing for 3,059 yards with 18 TDs and just eight INTs. He's completing 75.6% for 987 yards (6 TDs / 0 INTs) after three games in 2017, as the Wolfpack are averaging 334.7 YPG through the air to rank 13th in the nation. The NC State defense was solid last season (allowed 22.8 PPG) and comes into this game allowing 23.7 PPG.

Florida State: The Seminoles' offense couldn't dent Alabama's defense in their lone 2017 game, scoring just seven points on 250 total yards (just 40 yards rushing). However, the defense played extremely well, holding The Tide to just 269 yards. Florida State will turn the offense over to freshman James Blackman, who will be the first true freshman to start at QB for the Seminoles since 1985. The good news is, he's had some extra time to study the playbook and practice with the first team during the layoff. “He has presence and poise,” head coach Jimbo Fisher said. “I’ve always said the No. 1 thing (quarterbacks) have to have, barring anything, I always look at it very early on, I say the No. 1 thing is presence. … They just have presence. When they talk, there’s a natural command to what they do and how they carry themselves. And I think James does that."

The pick: Still fuming from a 24-7 season-opening loss to Alabama on Sep. 2, then seeing its next two games get washed out because of Hurricane Irma, Florida State enters Saturday's contest having not played a game in three weeks. Florida State's 21-day stretch between games is tied for the third-longest layoff between regular-season games in the same season in program history. My bet says the NC State is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Lay it with FSU and make them an 8* play.