Will Rogers Handicapping Review & Free Picks Page

Philadelphia Phillies (Wheeler) vs. Washington Nationals (Corbin)

Facing the Nationals last night, the Phillies blew the game open in the 9th for the win. Since the trade deadline, the Nationals are a tad shy in the reliever department, and can expect this to become a regular occurrence. With Patrick Corbin (6-9, 5.78) up against Zack Wheeler (8-6, 2.45) today, the Nationals will be lucky to have a lead to protect. Corbin has struggled this season. In his last three starts, he is 0-2 , has averaged 5 innings per start, and given up 14 runs. He has struggled against right handed batters and had a 7.18 ERA for July.

Lefty Zack Wheeler has been strong all season. Philadelphia, in games he has started, is 12-9. His three last starts were 6 or 7 innings each, giving up a total of 8 runs. The Phillies have added to the pen to the point that they were able to have one of their closers start yesterday. Their bullpen which has been an issue, has been excellent of late. The Nationals relievers have been very poor lately and completely bombed last night.

The offenses are roughly equal in average and run production. One Nationals stat does stand out; the Nationals are poor against lefthanders, but only 17-34 as an underdog! While they split their last series vs. the Phillies, I doubt that the Nationals will do as well this go-round. Take the Phillies to win -1.5.

Pirates (Kranick) vs Brewers (Houser)

The Pirates’ starter, Max Kranick, must know the route from Indianapolis to Pittsburgh pretty well by now. He has been back a forth a good number of times in the last couple of months. In between, he has made four starts, has a record of 1-2, and an ugly ERA of 7.31. His first start was terrific, a five inning no hit shutout, but it has been downhill from there. He has averaged less than 4 innings a start, and has been very poor against right handed batters.

His mound opponent for Milwaukee is Adrian Houser (7-5, 3.69). Houser had a very productive July and has had very good team support (13-5). His starts average around 5 innings and he has only given up 4 runs in his last three assignments.

Kranick’s short starts could become a real issue today as Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been horrid of late AND they just lost their very effective closer at the trade deadline. Milwaukee’s relief corps has been very good at home and in the last 7 games. The Brewers have added a couple of good relief pieces and supplemented their already potent offense via trade.

Pittsburgh is one of a number of teams who will struggle down the stretch after the trade deadline, but it will get players like Kranick into the bigs. What this does to the Pirates already suspect performance remains to be seen. At 40-65 against right handed pitching and 17-35 in road games, I can suggest where the game against Milwaukee will go today. Likely straight downhill. Milwaukee is 63-43 at home and 52- 32 vs right handed starters. At this point Kranick is a very average right-hander. I am picking Houser to continue his strong season and the Brewers to win. Take Milwaukee -1.5.