Will Rogers Handicapping Review & Free Picks Page

The set-up: The Boston Bruins blew a chance at capturing the East's No. 1 seed when they lost a home contest to the Panthers in the team's final game of the regular season. However, The Bruins regrouped quickly and won the first two games of their series with the Maple Leafs, 5-1 and 7-3. The series shifted to Toronto for Game 3, where the Maple Leafs were able to reverse the momentum of the series with a 4-2 home win on Monday night. Toronto had a chance to level the best-of-seven series in Game 4 on Thursday night but come to Boston for Saturday's Game 5 lamenting a missed opportunity in Thursday's 3-1 setback, despite the Bruins playing without the team's top-line center, Patrice Bergeron (he was a late-scratch with an upper body injury).

Toronto: The Maple Leafs will receive a boost with the return of center Nazem Kadri, a 32-goal scorer during the regular season who received a three-game suspension for a dangerous hit on Boston's Tommy Wingels in the series opener. Kadri's return will mean a demotion for Tomas Plekanec, who scored the team's only goal Thursday (but it was his first since he was acquired from Montreal). Auston Matthews had 63 points in 62 regular season games this year but has just one goal in teh series, being held off the scoresheet in three of the four games. The team's leading goal score, van Riensdyk (36), has a modest two goals in the series, his only points.

Boston: Bergeron, who is up for his fifth Selke Trophy as the game's best defensive forward, collected five assists in the first two games but with Riley Nash taking his place, Brad Marchand scored a goal and David Pastrnak continued his brilliant play with two assists to bump his series point total up to 11. Bergeron skated on his own Friday, which was called a "positive" by head coach Bruce Cassidy, who said he will make a decision on the four-time Selke Trophy winner's status at Saturday's morning skate. Goaltender Tuukka Rask has been overshadowed by the offensive exploits through much of the series but he answered the call in Game 4 by turning aside 31 of 32 shots in what Marchand termed a "phenomenal game. He’s one of the best goalies in the world and he gives us an opportunity to win every night.”

The pick: The last time Original Six rivals Boston and Toronto met in the postseason, the Bruins needed a miraculous comeback in the final minutes of Game 7 before ousting the Maple Leafs in overtime. Five years later, Toronto is in position of needing a miracle comeback of its own, trailing this best-of-seven series 3-1 heading into Saturday's Game 5 at Boston's TD Garden. The Maple Leafs can look to the past for inspiration, as they also trailed the series 3-1 in 2013, before blowing a two-goal lead in the final 90 seconds of Game 7! Take the 1 1/2 goals and make Toronto an 8* play.

The set-up: The Houston Rockets owned the NBA's best record at 65-17 and guard James Harden is likely to take home his first MVP trophy this season. He is the best player on the team with the best record in the league but he is not the whole team. The Rockets proved that in Game 2 of their series with Minnesota, as despite Harden going 2-of-18 from the floor in Game 2, Houston still managed to post a 102-82 win. Minnesota clinched its first playoff berth in 14 years with a win against Denver in the regular-season finale but the T-wolves have failed to get their offense going in this series. In particular, All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns needs to get more involved, as he's totaled 13 points on 5-of-18 shooting in the first two games, after averaging 21.3 PPG during the regular season.

Houston: The Rockets' supporting cast stepped up to help Harden on Wednesday, with Gerald Green coming off the bench for 21 points and Trevor Ariza adding 15. Fellow All Star Chris Paul added 27 points and eight assists in Game 2, after a so-so Game 1 in which he shot just 5 of 14 with 14 points. All-in-all, the Rockets only shot 36.5 percent from the floor in Game 2 and James Harden was limited to 12 points, yet Houston won by 20 after squeaking by with a three-point win in Game 1. "We haven't played very well so far," Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni told the Houston Chronicle. "It'll be crazy up there. They haven't been in the playoffs for a long time. It will be a very loud crowd. We have to do our part, play defense and take the crowd out of it. We have to be ready for all they got. Whatever they have left, we're going to get it full throttle right when we get on the floor to start the game."

Minnesota: The T-wolves know all about "not playing well!" Not only has Towns been a "no-show" but the team's best all-around player, Jimmy Butler, has averaged 12.0 PPG on 41.2% shooting (averaged 22.2 PPG on 47.4% shooting in the regular season). Minnesota was actually the aggressor early in Game 2, leading after the first quarter. However, the T-wolves shot 38.8 percent from the floor for teh game. Swingman Andrew Wiggins scored 13 poinst and was one of just three players on the team to score in double figures (Butler had 11 and Nemanja Bjelica scored a team-high 16 points, after going scoreless in Game 1).

The pick: Minnesota remains confident despite being in an 0-2 hole and is excited to play the franchise's first home playoff game since Game 5 of the Western Conference finals in 2004. "It feels good," Timberwolves swingman Andrew Wiggins told reporters after Friday's practice. "Houston took care of business up there and now we’ve got to do the same up here. I know the fans will be excited, the atmosphere will be crazy and the whole team, we're confident. We're ready." Minnesota was one of the league's best teams at home with a 30-11 record this year and a loss here, all but ends the series. Minnesota can draw confidence from the fact that the Rockets are shooting only 29.2 percent from three-point range in the series. The home dog 'barks' in this one. Make Minnesota a 10* play.

The set-up: The Houston Rockets had the best regular season of any NBA team but the Philadelphia 76ers have stolen most of the headlines "down the stretch" with the team's 16-0 run to close the regular season. The final eight games in the team's winning streak came with Philly's All Star center Joel Embiid (22.9 & 11.0 in the regular season) sidelined with an orbital fracture.The 76ers opened their first round series (with Embiid still sidelined) by routing the Heat by 27 points but their 17-game winning streak came to a crashing halt in Game 2, as the Heat won 1113-103. Embiid had posted an Instagram message before Game 2 that strongly indicated his desire to return, indicating that he was being "babied" by the team staff, and he participated in portions of practice the next two days. Still, Embiid's status for Game 3 remained 'cloudy.' "It's still moving forward," head coach Brett Brown told reporters Tuesday. "What I can say is there is a very unified effort with his representation and the people around him. With the people that did the operation, the doctors, with our medical staff, with the team, with me, the coaching staff. We're all doing this. There's a unified sort of spirit and line of communication." However, Ebiid would start Game 3 and had 23 points and seven rebounds as the 76ers routed Miami 128-108. As the teams get set to meet again at AmericanAirlines Arena on Saturday, the Heat will need to corral Embiid but Miami also needs to get its center, Hassan Whiteside, more involved.

Philadelphia: Naturally, Embiid was Game 3's biggest storyline, as he adjusted to wearing a mask to protect the healing eye bone and had an excellent game under the circumstances (he had missed 10 consecutive contests). However, let's not ignore rookie PG Ben Simmons and second-year PF Dario Saric. Saric led Philly with 30 points in Game 3 and is averaging 21.3 & 7.0 in the series. As for Simmons, he's averaging 20.0-10.0-9.7 in his first three career playoff games (does he think he's Magic?). Philly's depth is impressive, led by SG Belinelli (20.7) and PF Ilysova (13.0 & 9.3).

Miami: Whiteside played just 13 minutes on Thursday, in part because of foul trouble. He contributed just five points, two rebounds and one block. "I want to get more minutes," said Whiteside, who led the NBA with 3.7 blocks in 2015-2016 and with 14.1 rebounds last season. "Even with the fouls, I could've been out there. I would not have fouled out." Whiteside is averaged 14.0 points, 11.4 rebounds and 1.7 blocks during the regular season but his minutes per game were down seven minutes from last season and even more in the playoffs. Whiteside said Heat coach Erik Spoelstra "wants me to just be in a corner and set picks." Meanwhile, Spoelstra said "it's part of my job to figure out how he can get to his strengths and make an impact on defense and rebounding." Will (can?) Miami fix this? Miami was led by point guard Goran Dragic's 23 points and eight assists (his second straight 20-point game) and from reserve forward Justise Winslow scored a season-high 19 points and grabbed 10 rebounds. However, Miami's top three shooting guards -- Tyler Johnson, Dwyane Wade and Wayne Ellington -- combined for just 21 points.

The pick: With Philly up 2-1 in the series, the outcome of this Game 4 will either put Philly in a commanding position (up 3-1) or a Miami win will portend a possible seven-game 'war.' The teams four regular season meetings averaged just 204 points and this pivotal Game 4 brings out the defensive side of both clubs. With the total currently right around 215, the play is an 8* on the Under.

The set-up: The San Francisco Giants opened their three-game IL series with the Angels by taking Friday night's game 8-1. Jeff Samardzija came off the disabled list and tossed five scoreless innings in Friday’s 8-1 victory, but the real story was San Francisco's sudden power surge. The Giants had scored a total of only six runs over their previous four games (1-3) but Mac Williamson hit a two-run HR in his season debut on Friday plus Nick Hundley and Andrew McCutchen each homered .They provided a much-needed boost for the Giants’ offense, which entered the game hitting .154 (19-for-123) with runners in scoring position. The Angels have lost four in a row following a seven-game winning streak and need more production from right fielder Kole Calhoun, who was dropped to eighth in the order Friday and is hitting .192 after going hitless in three at-bats. Japanese two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani (.342 / 3 HRs / 11 RBI) had two singles while batting sixth and hopes to take the mound on Monday after leaving his last outing early with a blister on his right middle finger.

The pitching matchup: The Giants will send lefty Derek Holland (0-2, 4.60 ERA) to the mound while the Angels counter with Garrett Richards (2-0, 3.60 ERA). Holland is making his fourth start for the Giants (team is 0-3) and he's seeking his first win with his latest team, after allowing three runs over 4 2/3 innings against San Diego last Saturday in a 5-4 team loss (he took a no-decision). The 31-year-old has appeared in more games against the Angels than any other team over his career, going 10-8 with a 5.21 ERA in 28 games (25 starts). Richards struggled with his control again last Saturday against Kansas City but earned the win after giving up one run on one hit over five-plus innings. The injury-plagued 29-year-old has walked at least three batters in each of his first four starts while striking out 24 across 20 innings (Angels are 3-1 in his 2018 starts). Richards has never faced the Giants but is 4-2 with a 1.42 ERA in 18 career interleague games (11 starts) and has limited Austin Jackson to one hit in 15 at-bats.

The pick: San Francisco is 7-2 this season when scoring first and 1-9 in games their opponent scores first. If LA can score first....Sure, the Angels have been outscored 35-4 during their four-game losing streak but the team was off to a 13-3 prior to that. The bottom line here is that Holland has been less that impressive in his first three starts and Richards will face a SF lineup that comes in averaging only 3.11 RPG, ranking 29th of 30 MLB teams. Make the LAA a 6* play.

The set-up: The Seattle Mariners scored four runs in the ninth inning last night to win the series-opener over the Texas Rangers, 6-2. The team's ninth-inning splurge was timely, considering Seattle had scored just seven runs over its previous previous five games. Texas knows more than a little about a lack of scoring too, as the Rangers have scored two or fewer runs nine times this season in opening 7-14. Seattle sits at 10-8 after Friday's win

The pitching matchup: Seattle lefty James Paxton (1-1, 4.57 ERA) gets the nod for the Mariners and will be opposed by Bartolo Colon (0-0, 1.45 ERA), a veteran who apparently has a lot left in his 44-year-old right arm. Paxton entered the season primed for a big campaign after the oft-injured lefty put together his best season in 2017, finishing with career highs in wins, starts (24), innings (136) and strikeouts (156). He was named the AL's Pitcher of the Month in July when he won all six of his starts. Paxton picked up his first victory of the season Monday when he gave up one run and three hits over six innings. He has now given up fa modest five runs over his last three starts (2.65 ERA) after being roughed up for six runs on six hits in 4 2/3 innings by Cleveland on March 31. Paxton is 2-4 with a 4.62 ERA in 10 career starts against Texas. Colon took a perfect game into the eighth inning of his last start against the Houston Astros, before allowing a double. That hit was the only one allowed by Colon in 7 2/3 innings but he charged with a run later in the inning for a no-decision in a game decided in 10 innings. Colon is making his fifth appearance (third start) for the Rangers and he has a stellar 0.70 WHIP while holding opponents to a .177 batting average. Colon has been around 'forever' and is 20-12 with a 3.84 ERA in 37 career starts against Seattle.

The pick: The 44-year-old Colon flirted with a perfect game in his last outing, becoming the oldest pitcher to take a no-hitter into the eighth inning since Kansas City's Gaylord Perry at 44 years, 338 days on Aug. 18, 1983, at Baltimore. That said, it's VERY early and I am not buying into Colon having found the "fountain of youth." After all, Colon made 28 starts in 2017 (for Atlanta and Minnesota), posting a 6.48 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, while opponents batted .318 against him. In contrast, see above for a reminder of Paxton's 2017 season and remember he owns a 2.65 ERA over his last three outings. Make Seattle an 8* play.