Will Rogers Handicapping Review & Free Picks Page

The set-up: The last time these teams played, the Sun smashed the Lynx 89-75. I’m expecting another decisive affair here as well. Connecticut comes in ranked third in the East with an 11-10 record, while Minnesota is ranked fifth in the West with a 12-9 record.

The teams: The Sun are led by Chiney Ogwumike with 15.7 PPG, while Alyssa Thomas directs the show with 4.7 assists a night. Thomas also leads the nightly charge on the glass with 9.7 per game.

The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18.6 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen chips in 3.8 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles contributes with 12 board per game.

The pick: The Sun broke a three-game slide with a 91-87 win over Phoenix on Friday and I think they’ll carry that momentum over at home here as well. The Lynx come in off a deflating 85-77 home loss to Las Vegas and I believe they’re primed for another letdown here also. Play on Connecticut.

The set-up: I think the Nationals offer great value in this bounce back spot after yesterday’s. The visitors hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson, while the home side goes with Corey Oswalt.

The pitchers: Hellickson is so far 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA. Hellickson has for the most part been solid this season (other than a disastrous outing against the Marlins on July 5th) and he’s been extra special on the road with a 3-1, 2.70 ERA thus far (also owns a minuscule 1.59 ERA in all “day” games.)

Oswalt is so far 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits over four innings in a no-decision to Toronto on Wednesday. He looked decent in just his second career start, but after posting a 5.32 ERA in Triple A and a 7.94 ERA in the majors, clearly the rookie still has some work to do before he can be trusted.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is already 37-29 against right-handed starters this year, while New York is just 28-39 (-11.9 units) against right-handed starters this season. The Nationals are desperate for a victory, they’re out for revenge after yesterday’s setback and they have the better pitcher on the mound. Great value here, play on Washington.

The set-up: Masahiro Tanaka has struggled at times this year and I think he’s going to have his hands full in this difficult venue on Sunday afternoon. Trevor Bauer though is putting together his strongest campaign ever and I think he has a major advantage in friendly confines. 

The pitchers: Tanaka is so far 7-2 with a 4.68 ERA. Tanaka returns from the DL to make this start, his first since June 8th. He looked decent in one re-hab outing, but note that he still owns the sub-par 5.01 ERA on the road this season.

Bauer is so far 8-6 with a 2.23 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits with a walk and eight strikeouts over eight innings in a victory over the Royals on Wednesday. Over his last six outings he’s struck out 59 batters and posted a 1.87 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Note that Bauer is 4-1 with a 2.19 ERA at home so far this year.

The pick: Tanaka got back on track after a shaky start before hitting the DL, but clearly he draws a tough task/opponent right out of the gate. Bauer on the other hand has been “on point” from Day 1 this year and he has in fact been getting stronger as the season has worn on. I like Bauer to continue that progression and overall I believe this is a great price. Play on Cleveland.

The set-up: I think the massive talent gap on the mound in this one makes Jon Lester and the hard-hitting Cubbies well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The Padres go with the erratic Eric Lauer.

The pitchers: Lester is so far 11-2 with a 2.45 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits and three walks over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Sunday. Previous to this sub-par effort Lester had allowed just six earned runs over a 37 innings stretch, so I’m definitely not going to over-react. Note that he’s 6-1 with a 2.96 ERA on the road this year as well.

Lauer is so far 5-5 with a 4.40 ERA. He most recently allowed one earned run over five innings in a win over the Diamondbacks on Thursday. Lauer though would allow nine batters to reach base, ultimately he was the beneficiary of a few timely double plays. Note that he’s just 3-3 with a 4.58 ERA at home this year.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but Chicago is already 28-17 (+2.6 units) this season in all “day” games (also 16-6, +7.3 units against southpaws), while San Diego is just 12-16 (-1.7 units) in all “day” games (and only 10-20, -8.1 units against left-handed starters.) I’m banking on Lester coming in focused. Lay the price, play on Chicago.

The set-up: France comes in off a 1-0 regulation win over Belgium, while Croatia knocked off host Russia in a shootout to advance. France has gotten better as this tournament has worn on, but Croatia has proven itself to be a “hard out.” Suffice it to say, I’m expecting nothing less here either. The French may be the more talented team on paper, but the Croatian’s have the bigger “heart.” I predict this one will see extra time or the shootout.

The teams: Croatia’s defense will be focused on slowing down French teenage phenom Kylian Mbappe, who has scored three goals so far. Antoine Greizmann continues to be a focal point for France as well, as he has 12 goals and eight assists over his last 20 games for his country.

Luka Modric is one of three Croatian’s with two goals in this tournament. Ivan Rakitic has helped his team in the knockout round, as he has two crucial goals in both shoot-out victories.

The pick: France may have never lost to Croatia in its history, but I think its over-confidence will prove its undoing here. The English found out the hard way that this Croatian team is no joke and while the French may in fact go on to win the title, I’m banking on it being anything but “easy.” Play on Croatia +0.5 goal.