Will Rogers Handicapping Review & Free Picks Page

The Blues are at home, and undoubtedly stirred up by the questionable hit on Binnington.  Husso is back in the net, and while he shone in the regular season, he hasn't shown as well in the playoffs.  The Blues will be fired up, but are in a precarious position, and will need to focus on the game.  Kadre will be a target today, but like him or not, he has been a force and a distraction in this series. 

The Avalanche bounced back after being stymied in the 2nd game in Denver, and can only benefit from the loss of Binnington.  I am looking for a bit of a hornet's nest today, with a lack of discipline a real possibility, and more than the average numbers of goals scored.  With two very good offenses ready and waiting today , take the Over.

With the Panthers facing elimination on the road, and Vasilevskiy playing stand-out hockey, another Tampa Bay victory is in the cards. It is telling that the Panthers, with the top ranked offense in the regular season, have just 1 player in the top 25 for playoff points. The Lightning are second only to the Oilers in goals scored, and although Kucherov has been sensational, the Lightning are getting balanced scoring. Vasilevskiy is a money goaltender. Note his uncanny ability to rebound after a loss. Well, he hasn’t lost in five games now, and I expect another fine outing from him. And, let’s not underestimate the role of the Lightning defense in this series.

The Panthers’ style of play may just not translate in the playoffs. The Lightning are a very experienced side and know how to finish. I am wagering on them sweeping the series. Take the Lightning to win.

This series continues to be higher scoring than expected, although Game 3 probably should NOT have gone Over the total. There were 22 points scored over the final 81 seconds of the game. That’s pretty ridiculous. The Over is now 3-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals. I think that trend ends tonight.

Miami jumped out to a huge early lead in Game 3 and never trailed, though Boston did get within one in the fourth quarter. Despite that wire to wire win, the Heat look to be at a major disadvantage heading into Game 4 as five key players are listed as questionable, among them Jimmy Butler. The others are Lowry, Tucker, Strus and Herro. I just don’t think Miami is going to score a lot of points tonight.

Bam Adebayo did have 31 on Sunday. But that came after he scored just 16 points total in the first two games and 38 the previous four. Asking him to match, or even exceed his playoff-high (31), seems like asking a lot here.

I also don’t think Boston’s Jaylen Brown is going to offer up a repeat of his Game 3 performance where he scored 40 - ten more than he’s had in any other game in these playoffs. 

Coming into this series, we all knew about the defensive prowess of the two teams. Miami is still only giving up 100.6 points per game in the playoffs while Boston is allowing 103.5. The oddsmakers were smart to set low totals for the first three games. But, with the Heat & Celtics now a combined 16-0 Over their last 16 Conf Finals games, I saw the Under is due for a turn. 

Phillies’ starter Zack Wheeler took his time getting going this season, but is now pitching at an elite level. He has an ERA of 1.35 in May, with 23 strikeouts to 2 walks, and just two home runs-against for the year. He has thrown 7 innings or more in 2 of 3 last starts.

He faces young lefty Tucker Davidson (5.87 ERA), whose only start this year was a five inning shutout, fresh off the bus from triple A, He gave up 5 runs in 2.2 innings of relief in April.

Both teams are just over .500 in their last ten games. The Phillies have the edge in offense, particularly against left-handers. The Braves have the better bullpen but will likely have to dip in earlier.

I’ll take the proven ability of Wheeler and the Phillies’ offense over the unproven talent of Davidson.  After that adrenaline-driven first start, a rookie often returns to earth on the 2nd. Take the Phillies to win.