Jimmy Boyd in 
I’ve taken some time to put together a history of the points spreads for every Final Four matchup and NCAA Championship Game. This data goes back to when the field expanded to 64 teams back in 1985.
I’ve included the seeds of each team, the spread, and the ATS winner for all games where a line was accessible. We were unable to locate the lines for the Final Four games before the 2002-03 season.
If you are going to do any college basketball betting on this year’s tournament, it can be important to see what has happened in the past.
Biggest Semifinal Upsets
These tables are a great way to look back over history and relive some of the biggest upsets. Connecticut’s 63-53 win over Florida in the 2014 tourney marked the end of an impressive run for favorites. It was the first upset in the semifinals since Michigan State knocked off UConn 82-73 as a 4.5-point dog in 2009.
Biggest Upsets in NCAA Tournament Championship Games
As far as the Championship Game, the biggest upset based on the spread since 1985 is Connecticut’s 77-74 win over Duke. They were a 9.5-point underdog back in 1994. One of the interesting things to note about that matchup is that both teams were a No. 1 seed. The next biggest spread during this stretch when two No. 1 seeds met in the title game was Florida -4 over Ohio State in 2007.
Connecticut was not the only champion that won despite not getting a lot of love from the oddsmakers. Kansas (1988) and Villanova (1985) both won the title as 8-point underdogs. Arizona pulled off the upset as a 7-point dog in 1997.
Only once since the field has expanded to 64 teams has a team been listed as a double-digit favorite in the championship game. That honor belongs to Kentucky, who was a massive 14-point favorite over Syracuse in 1996. The Wildcats would go on to win the title, but the Orange covered the number in a 67-76 defeat.
Point Spread History for the NCAA Basketball Championship Game
| Year | Matchup (Seed) | Spread | Score | Winner | ATS Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Kansas (1) vs. North Carolina (8) | Kansas -4 | 72-69 | Kansas | North Carolina +4 |
| 2021 | Baylor (1) vs. Gonzaga (1) | Gonzaga -4.5 | 86-70 | Baylor | Baylor +4.5 |
| 2020 | None (Tournament Cancelled) | None | None | None | None |
| 2019 | Virginia (1) vs Texas Tech (3) | Virginia -2 | 85-77 | Virginia | Virginia -2 |
| 2018 | Villanova (1) vs. Michigan (3) | Villanova -7 | 79-62 | Villanova | Villanova -7 |
| 2017 | Gonzaga (1) vs. North Carolina (1) | North Carolina -1 | 71-65 | North Carolina | North Carolina -1 |
| 2016 | Villanova (2) vs. North Carolina (1) | North Carolina -2 | 77-74 | Villanova | Villanova +2 |
| 2015 | Wisconsin (1) vs. Duke (1) | Wisconsin -1 | 68-63 | Duke | Duke +1 |
| 2014 | Kentucky (8) vs. Connecticut (7) | Kentucky -2.5 | 60-54 | Connecticut | Connecticut +2.5 |
| 2013 | Michigan St (4) vs. Louisville (1) | Louisville -4 | 82-76 | Louisville | Louisville -4 |
| 2012 | Kansas (2) vs. Kentucky (1) | Kentucky -6.5 | 67-59 | Kentucky | Kentucky -6.5 |
| 2011 | Butler (8) vs. Connecticut (3) | Connecticut -3 | 53-41 | Connecticut | Connecticut -3 |
| 2010 | Butler (5) vs. Duke (1) | Duke -7 | 61-59 | Duke | Butler +7 |
| 2009 | Michigan St (2) vs. N. Carolina (1) | N. Carolina -7.5 | 89-72 | N. Carolina | N. Carolina -7.5 |
| 2008 | Memphis (1) vs. Kansas (1) | Memphis -2 | 75-68 (OT) | Kansas | Kansas +2 |
| 2007 | Ohio State (1) vs. Florida (1) | Florida -4 | 84-75 | Florida | Florida -4 |
| 2006 | Florida (3) vs. UCLA (2) | Florida -1 | 73-57 | Florida | Florida -1 |
| 2005 | Illinois (1) vs. N. Carolina (1) | N. Carolina -2 | 75-70 | N. Carolina | N. Carolina -2 |
| 2004 | Ga Tech (3) vs. Connecticut (2) | Connecticut -5 | 82-73 | Connecticut | Connecticut -5 |
| 2003 | Syracuse (3) vs. Kansas (2) | Kansas -5.5 | 81-78 | Syracuse | Syracuse +5.5 |
| 2002 | Indiana (5) vs. Maryland (1) | Maryland -7.5 | 64-52 | Maryland | Maryland -7.5 |
| 2001 | Arizona (2) vs. Duke (1) | Arizona -4 | 82-72 | Duke | Duke +4 |
| 2000 | Florida (5) vs. Michigan St (1) | Michigan St -4 | 89-76 | Michigan St | Michigan St -4 |
| 1999 | Connecticut (1) vs. Duke (1) | Duke -9.5 | 77-74 | Connecticut | Connecticut +9.5 |
| 1998 | Utah (3) vs. Kentucky (2) | Kentucky -3.5 | 78-69 | Kentucky | Kentucky -3.5 |
| 1997 | Arizona (4) vs. Kentucky (1) | Kentucky -7 | 84-79 (OT) | Arizona | Arizona +7 |
| 1996 | Syracuse (4) vs. Kentucky (1) | Kentucky -14 | 76-67 | Kentucky | Syracuse +14 |
| 1995 | Arkansas (2) vs. UCLA (1) | UCLA -3 | 89-78 | UCLA | UCLA -3 |
| 1994 | Duke (2) vs. Arkansas (1) | Arkansas -6 | 76-72 | Arkansas | Duke +6 |
| 1993 | Michigan (1) vs. N. Carolina (1) | N. Carolina -2.5 | 77-71 | N. Carolina | N. Carolina -2.5 |
| 1992 | Michigan (6) vs. Duke (1) | Duke -5.5 | 71-51 | Duke | Duke -5.5 |
| 1991 | Kansas (3) vs. Duke (2) | Duke -3 | 72-65 | Duke | Duke -3 |
| 1990 | Duke (3) vs. UNLV (1) | *No Line | 103-73 | UNLV | *No Line |
| 1989 | Seton Hall (3) vs. Michigan (3) | Michigan -2 | 80-79 (OT) | Michigan | Seton Hall +2 |
| 1988 | Kansas (6) vs. Oklahoma (1) | Oklahoma -8 | 83-79 | Kansas | Kansas +8 |
| 1987 | Syracuse (2) vs. Indiana (1) | Indiana -4.5 | 74-73 | Indiana | Syracuse +4.5 |
| 1986 | Louisville (2) vs. Duke (1) | Duke -1 | 72-69 | Louisville | Louisville +1 |
| 1985 | Villanova (8) vs. Georgetown (1) | Georgetown -8 | 66-64 | Villanova | Villanova +8 |
History of Point Spreads & Results of Final Four Games
| Year | Matchup (Seed) | Spread | Score | Winner | ATS Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Duke (2) vs. North Carolina (8) | Duke -4.5 | 81-77 | North Carolina | North Carolina +4.5 |
| 2022 | Kansas (1) vs. Villanova (2) | Kansas -4 | 81-64 | Kansas | Kansas -4 |
| 2021 | Baylor (1) vs Houston (2) | Baylor -5 | 78-59 | Baylor | Baylor -5 |
| 2021 | UCLA (11) vs Gonzaga (1) | Gonzaga -14 | 93-90 | Gonzaga | UCLA +14 |
| 2020 | None (Tournament Cancelled) | None | None | None | None |
| 2020 | None (Tournament Cancelled) | None | None | None | None |
| 2019 | Virginia (1) vs Auburn (5) | Virginia -6 | 63-62 | Virginia | Auburn +6 |
| 2019 | Texas Tech (3) vs Michigan State (2) | Michigan State -2 | 61-51 | Texas Tech | Texas Tech +2 |
| 2018 | Villanova (1) vs. Kansas (1) | Villanova -5 | 95-79 | Villanova | Villanova -5 |
| 2018 | Michigan (3) vs. Loyola-Chicago (11) | Michigan -5.5 | 69-57 | Michigan | Michigan -5.5 |
| 2017 | Gonzaga (1) vs South Carolina (7) | Gonzaga -6.5 | 77-73 | Gonzaga | South Carolina +6.5 |
| 2017 | North Carolina (1) vs Oregon | North Carolina -4.5 | 95-51 | North Carolina | Oregon +4.5 |
| 2016 | North Carolina (1) vs. Syracuse (10) | North Carolina -10 | 83-66 | North Carolina | North Carolina -10 |
| 2016 | Villanova (2) vs. Oklahoma (2) | Villanova -2.5 | 95-51 | Villanova | Villanova -2.5 |
| 2015 | Michigan State (7) vs. Duke (1) | Duke -5 | 81-61 | Duke | Duke -5 |
| 2015 | Wisconsin (1) vs. Kentucky (1) | Kentucky -5 | 71-64 | Wisconsin | Wisconsin +7 |
| 2014 | Florida (1) vs. Connecticut (7) | Florida -7 | 63-53 | Connecticut | Connecticut +7 |
| 2014 | Wisconsin (2) vs. Kentucky (8) | Kentucky -1 | 74-73 | Kentucky | PUSH |
| 2013 | Louisville (1) vs. Wichita St (9) | Louisville -9.5 | 72-68 | Louisville | Wichita St +9.5 |
| 2013 | Michigan (4) vs. Syracuse (4) | Michigan -1.5 | 61-56 | Michigan | Michigan -1.5 |
| 2012 | Kentucky (1) vs. Louisville (4) | Kentucky -8.5 | 69-61 | Kentucky | Louisville +8.5 |
| 2012 | Ohio State (2) vs. Kansas (2) | Ohio State -3 | 64-62 | Kansas | Kansas +3 |
| 2011 | Kentucky (4) vs. Connecticut (3) | Kentucky -2 | 56-55 | Connecticut | Connecticut +2 |
| 2011 | VCU (11) vs. Butler (8) | Butler -3.5 | 70-62 | Butler | Butler -3.5 |
| 2010 | Michigan St (5) vs. Butler (5) | Butler -1.5 | 52-50 | Butler | Butler -1.5 |
| 2010 | W. Virginia (2) vs. Duke (1) | Duke -2.5 | 78-57 | Duke | Duke -2.5 |
| 2009 | Michigan St. (2) vs. Connecticut (1) | Connecticut -4.5 | 82-73 | Michigan St | Michigan St +4.5 |
| 2009 | Villanova (3) vs. N. Carolina (1) | N. Carolina -7 | 83-69 | N. Carolina | N. Carolina -7 |
| 2008 | N. Carolina (1) vs. Kansas (1) | N. Carolina -2.5 | 84-66 | Kansas | Kansas +2.5 |
| 2008 | Memphis (1) vs. UCLA (1) | Memphis -2 | 78-63 | Memphis | Memphis -2 |
| 2007 | Florida (1) vs. UCLA (2) | Florida -3 | 76-66 | Florida | Florida -3 |
| 2007 | Georgetown (2) vs. Ohio State (1) | Georgetown -1 | 67-60 | Ohio State | Ohio State +1 |
| 2006 | LSU (4) vs. UCLA (2) | LSU -1.5 | 59-45 | UCLA | UCLA +1.5 |
| 2006 | George Mason (11) vs. Florida (3) | Florida -6 | 73-58 | Florida | Florida -6 |
| 2005 | Illinois (1) vs. Louisville (4) | Illinois -3 | 72-57 | Illinois | Illinois -3 |
| 2005 | N. Carolina (1) vs. Michigan St (5) | N. Carolina -5.5 | 87-71 | N. Carolina | N. Carolina -5.5 |
| 2004 | Ga Tech (3) vs. Oklahoma St (2) | Oklahoma St -4 | 67-65 | Ga Tech | Ga Tech +4 |
| 2004 | Duke (1) vs. Connecticut (2) | Connecticut -2 | 79-78 | Connecticut | Duke +2 |
| 2003 | Marquette (3) vs. Kansas (2) | Marquette -4 | 94-61 | Kansas | Kansas +4 |
| 2003 | Texas (1) vs. Syracuse (3) | Texas -3 | 95-84 | Syracuse | Syracuse +3 |
| 2002 | Indiana (5) vs. Oklahoma (2) | 73-64 | Indiana | ||
| 2002 | Maryland (1) vs. Kansas (1) | 97-88 | Maryland | ||
| 2001 | Arizona (2) vs. Michigan St (1) | 80-61 | Arizona | ||
| 2001 | Duke (1) vs. Maryland (3) | 95-84 | Duke | ||
| 2000 | Wisconsin (8) vs. Michigan St (1) | 53-41 | Michigan St | ||
| 2000 | Florida (5) vs. N. Carolina (8) | 71-59 | Florida | ||
| 1999 | Duke (1) vs. Michigan St (1) | 68-62 | Duke | ||
| 1999 | Ohio State (4) vs. Connecticut (1) | 64-58 | Connecticut | ||
| 1998 | N. Carolina (1) vs. Utah (3) | 65-59 | Utah | ||
| 1998 | Stanford (3) vs. Kentucky (2) | 86-85 (OT) | Kentucky | ||
| 1997 | Kentucky (1) vs. Minnesota (1) | 78-69 | Kentucky | ||
| 1997 | N. Carolina (1) vs. Arizona (4) | 66-58 | Arizona | ||
| 1996 | Mississippi St (5) vs. Syracuse (4) | 77-69 | Syracuse | ||
| 1996 | UMass (1) vs. Kentucky (1) | 81-74 | Kentucky | ||
| 1995 | Arkansas (2) vs. N. Carolina (2) | 75-68 | Arkansas | ||
| 1995 | Oklahoma St (4) vs. UCLA (1) | 74-61 | UCLA | ||
| 1994 | Arizona (2) vs. Arkansas (1) | 91-82 | Arkansas | ||
| 1994 | Florida (3) vs. Duke (2) | 70-65 | Duke | ||
| 1993 | Kentucky (1) vs. Michigan (1) | 81-78 (OT) | Michigan | ||
| 1993 | N. Carolina (1) vs. Kansas (2) | 78-68 | N. Carolina | ||
| 1992 | Cincinnati (4) vs. Michigan (6) | 76-72 | Michigan | ||
| 1992 | Duke (1) vs. Indiana (2) | 81-78 | Duke | ||
| 1991 | UNLV (1) vs. Duke (2) | 79-77 | Duke | ||
| 1991 | N. Carolina (1) vs. Kansas (3) | 79-73 | Kansas | ||
| 1990 | Ga Tech (4) vs. UNLV (1) | 90-81 | UNLV | ||
| 1990 | Duke (3) vs. Arkansas (4) | 97-83 | Duke | ||
| 1989 | Illinois (1) vs. Michigan (3) | 83-81 | Michigan | ||
| 1989 | Duke (2) vs. Seton Hall (3) | 95-78 | Seton Hall | ||
| 1988 | Kansas (6) vs. Duke (2) | 66-59 | Kansas | ||
| 1988 | Arizona (1) vs. Oklahoma (1) | 86-78 | Oklahoma | ||
| 1987 | UNLV (1) vs. Indiana (1) | 97-93 | Indiana | ||
| 1987 | Providence (6) vs. Syracuse (2) | 77-63 | Syracuse | ||
| 1986 | LSU (11) vs. Louisville (2) | 88-77 | Louisville | ||
| 1986 | Duke (1) vs. Kansas (1) | 71-67 | Duke | ||
| 1985 | St. John’s (1) vs. Georgetown (1) | 77-59 | Georgetown | ||
| 1985 | Memphis State (2) vs. Villanova (8) | 52-45 | Villanova |
We have a lot more on tournament history for those interested:
- Tournament Records for Top Coaches
- Historical Bracket Trends
- Facts About March Madness
- Lowest Seeds to Make the Championship
- How Far Each Seed Has Advanced
- Winning Percentage by Seed
