Do you want tournament bracket trends that will give you an edge when filling out your bracket this year? Lucky for you I’ve done the research so you don’t have to.
I’m sure you know to have a No. 12 picked to beat a No. 5 in your bracket. I’m sure my upset predictions will have one or two of those in there. But, this article goes more in depth to give you a better understanding of where the advantages lie.
Filling Out NCAA Tournament Bracket: Statistics on #1 Team & #1 Seeds
Struggles of No. 1 Ranked Team in the Nation
Here’s some food for thought that just might surprise you. Only eight teams since the beginning of the seeding process have entered the Big Dance ranked number one in at least one poll and went on to cut down the nets.
- Kentucky (1978)
- North Carolina (1982)
- Duke (1992)
- UCLA (1995)
- Michigan State (2000)
- Duke (2001)
- North Carolina (2009)
- Kentucky (2012)
In 2014, No. 1 ranked Florida advanced to the Final 4, but would go on to lose to No. 7 seeded Connecticut, who followed that up be beating No. 8 Kentucky to win the title.
Almost everyone thought undefeated Kentucky was a lock to win the tournament in 2015. The NCAA tournament odds had them at more than a 50% chance of winning. But, that didn’t end up being the case. After barely scraping by Notre Dame 68-66 in the Elite 8, the Wildcats were defeated 64-71 by fellow No. 1 seed Wisconsin in the Final Four.
#1 Seeds in the Championship Game
Since the NCAA started seeding teams in 1979, the title game has featured two number one seeds only seven times. While this did just happen in 2015 with No. 1 Duke taking on No. 1 Wisconsin, that’s the only time in the last 7 years.
However, you can be confident that at least one No. 1 will make the Final Four. There’s only three times when it hasn’t happened. The most recent being 2011, where the highest seed to make the Final Four was No. 3 Connecticut (Prior two times was in 1980 & 2006).
With that said, it’s also not a good idea to pick all four No. 1’s to make the Final Four. While it happened not too long ago (2008), that’s the only time it has taken place. But, each No. 1 seeded team has about a 40% chance of making it out of their region.
Trends on Picking & Predicting Most Likely Upsets in March Madness
We all know it’s important to pick some live dogs when filling out our brackets, but we don’t want to pick the No. 16 over the No. 1 upset. Since 1985, when the NCAA instated a 64-team tournament field, a No. 1 has ever fallen to a No. 16.
They are a perfect 128-0. If you have a 16 over a one this year, you may want to rework your bracket. It’s bound to happen at some point, but the odds aren’t in its favor.
A No. 15 has knocked off a No. 2 just 8 times. The most recent being #15 Middle Tennessee State over #2 Michigan State. However, it’s not worth the risk. No. 2’s are 120-8 versus No. 15’s overall.
We start to see a few more upsets when we get to the No. 3 vs No. 14 and No. 4 vs No. 13 showdowns. No. 3’s are 107-21 against No. 14 with one of those upsets taking place last year when No. 14 Stephen F. Austin defeated No. 3 West Virginia. As for No. 4’s, they are 102-26 against No. 13’s.
The No. 5 versus No. 12 matchups are the ones that everyone talks about, and rightfully so. No. 5’s are just 82-46 against No. 12’s since 1985. That’s only a 64.0% success rate. It’s been even closer than that over the last 7 years, where No. 5 seeds hold a marginal 17-15 advantage.
Unfortunately the No. 12 seeds didn’t come through in 2015, as the No. 5 seeds were a perfect 4-0. It was only the fourth time since 1985 that at least one No. 12 seed didn’t win.
While it doesn’t get as much hype, it’s not a bad idea to have a No. 6 seed go down in their first game. No. 11 seeds have a respectable 46-82 record in this matchup, including a 7-5 edge the last 3 years. There were three No. 11 seeds who won in 2016.
The No. 9 versus No. 8 game requires a little more research, as this has been a 50/50 split (64-64).
How Far Does Cinderella Dance?
If you’re looking to pick Cinderellas, the furthest a 12 seed has made it is the Elite Eight (Missouri 2002).
Surprisingly there have been three No. 11 seeds to advance to the Final 4. Those being LSU (1986), George Mason (2006) and VCU (2011).
The lowest seed to win the NCAA Championship is a No. 8 seed, which was done by Villanova in 1985.
Out of the eight to upset a No. 2 seed, only one No. 15 has advanced to the Sweet 16 (Florida Gulf Coast, 2013). Check out the furthest each seed has gone in the tournament for more.
Connecticut became the first ever No. 7 seed to win it all in 2014, leaving only the No. 5 seeded as the only top 8 seed to have never won the title. With that said, there has been three occasions where a No. 5 seed has advanced to the championship game.
These trends should give you a better idea where the percentages lie when filling out your NCAA tournament bracket this March.