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Jack Jones

Jack Jones Jack Jones

No. 2 Ranked Overall Handicapper in 2014! Jack Jones and his $1,000/game players have profited $63,380 this year in all sports! Sign up today!

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY! (880-750 NBA Run)

No. 1 Ranked NBA Handicapper from 2012-13! Jack Jones has been crushing the books on the pro hardwood for quite some time! He is riding a MASSIVE 880-750 NBA Run that has seen his $1,000/game players profit $71,810! Come get your hands on the only play worth wagering in pro hoops tonight with his 15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY! He has you betting behind a PROVEN 61-31 System along with 8-2 & 7-1 Trends in his analysis so you won't be betting blindly! It's a GUARANTEED WINNER or Monday NBA is ON JACK!

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ALL SPORTS SUBSCRIPTIONS
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NCAA-F SUBSCRIPTIONS
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Jack Jones 2014-15 College Football Season Pass!

As of Tuesday, September 30th, Jack Jones has decided to LOWER THE PRICE BY $100.00 of his CFB season pass from $449.95 to $349.95! He is your No. 3 Ranked College Football Handicapper from 2012-13! Jack is currently riding a HUGE 171-135 College Football Run as of Tuesday, September 30th, 2014! Want in on these profits? Do just that by signing up here for Jack's 2014-15 College Football Season Pass for $349.95! With this package, you will receive every college football play he releases from today through the 2015 BCS National Championship!

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NCAA-B SUBSCRIPTIONS
Jack Jones 2014-15 College Hoops Season Pass!

THREE STRAIGHT Top-5 Finishes in College Basketball! (#5 2011-12, #5 2012-13, #3 2013-14) You can look, but you won't find another handicapper on this network that can claim that! Jack Jones is coming off his best college hoops season yet, and he's ready to top it this season! He enters the 2014-15 campaign riding a 399-308 CBB Run that has seen his $1,000/game players profit $67,030! A fourth straight Top-5 finish is in store this year, so sign up for Jack's 2014-15 College Hoops Season Pass for $499.95 so you don't miss out! You'll receive all of his college basketball picks through the NCAA Tournament!

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BASKETBALL [NBA+NCAAB] SUBSCRIPTIONS
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No. 1 Ranked Basketball Handicapper from 2012-13! Jack Jones came back with a No. 4 Hoops Finish in 2013-14! Heading into the 2014-15 campaign, Jack is riding an EPIC 842-668 Basketball Run that has seen his $1,000/game players profit a RIDICULOUS $124,380! Come bet with the best hoops handicapper on the planet by signing up for Jack's 2014-15 NBA & CBB Season Pass for $699.95! It would cost you roughly $1000 to buy his NBA ($499.95) and CBB ($499.95) season passes separately, so YOU SAVE $300.00 with this package! You'll win in pro and college hoops through the NBA Finals in June!

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NBA SUBSCRIPTIONS
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No. 1 Ranked NBA Handicapper from 2012-13! Jack Jones has been crushing the books on the pro hardwood for quite some time! Entering the 2014-15 campaign, he is riding a MASSIVE 856-729 NBA Run that has seen his $1,000/game players profit $70,070! Come bet with one of the best pro hoops cappers on the planet by signing up for Jack's 2014-15 NBA Season Pass for $499.95! This package will earn you all of his pro basketball releases through the NBA Finals in June!

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NFL SUBSCRIPTIONS
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With this package you will receive ALL NFL PLAYS released by Jack Jones for a FULL 30 Days! Plus, you are GUARANTEED PROFITS or the next 30 days of NFL picks are ON JACK!

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As of Tuesday, September 30th, Jack Jones has decided to LOWER THE PRICE BY $100.00 of his NFL season pass from $449.95 to $349.95! Sign up here for Jack's 2014-15 NFL Season Pass for $349.95 and get your hands on huge profits the rest of the year! With this package, you will receive every NFL play Jack releases through the 2015 Super Bowl!

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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 23, 2014
Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos
Miami Dolphins
+7-115
  at  5DIMES
started

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Miami Dolphins +7

The Denver Broncos (7-3) are a mess right now. They are dealing with injuries to four of their best skill players on offense, leaving Peyton Manning short-handed. Montee Ball (groin) isn’t expected to return until early December, while Julius Thomas (ankle) and Ronnie Hillman (foot)  are doubtful.  Emmanuel Sanders (concussion) is listed as questionable.

It’s no wonder the Broncos scored a season-low seven points in their 7-22 loss to the Rams last week. They lost Thomas to an ankle injury early in the game. Then, Sanders went out with a concussion later on. The Broncos’ offense stalled the rest of the way and could never mount a comeback. Peyton Manning just isn’t the same quarterback without all of these weapons.

Sanders is second on the team in receiving with 67 receptions for 954 yards and seven touchdowns. Thomas has 40 catches for 426 yards and a team-high 12 touchdowns, so Manning is going to be without his top two red zone targets. Hillman leads the team in rushing with 378 yards and three scores, while also catching 20 balls for 137 yards and a touchdown. This Denver offense is just rather pedestrian without these three guys.

I have been very impressed with Miami this season. It is every bit as good as its 6-4 record would indicate, and it has been playing its best football over the last five weeks. The Dolphins have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. In fact, they are 5-2 in their last seven games with their only two losses coming to Detroit (16-20) and Green Bay (24-27) by a combined seven points. Both the Lions and Packers are two of the best teams in the NFC this year, and they arguably should have beat both, losing on late scores in the closing seconds.

Miami ranks in the top half of the league in total offense at 348.4 yards per game this season under new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. However, the defense is the biggest reason for the Dolphins’ success. They rank 2nd in the league in total defense, giving up just 302.5 yards per game. They are also 7th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 45.9 yards per contest. That is the sign of an elite team, and one that is fully capable of giving the short-handed Broncos a run for their money.

The Dolphins come into this game on an extra three days’ rest having played last Thursday in a dominant 22-9 home win over the Bills. That extra preparation will be huge for this team as they get ready for Manning and company. The Broncos could be looking ahead to their showdown with the Chiefs next week knowing that first place in the division will be on the line in that game. I just like the Dolphins’ physical and mental state better than that of the Broncos heading into this one.

Denver is 19-41 ATS in its last 60 vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better. Miami is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 vs. AFC west opponents. The Dolphins are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Broncos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Denver, including 4-0 ATS in the last four road meetings.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

No. 2 Ranked Overall Handicapper in 2014! Jack Jones and his $1,000/game players have profited $63,380 this year in all sports! He is riding a MASSIVE 423-353 Football Run long-term which includes a solid 75-59 NFL Run! Bury your book on the pro gridiron this weekend by signing up for Jack's Sunday NFL 5-Play Power Pack for $59.95! Leading the charge is his 20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK along with his 20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK as his two featured top plays! It would cost you roughly $160.00 to buy all five picks separately, so YOU SAVE 100.00 by signing up for this 5-Pack! You are GUARANTEED PROFITS or Monday NFL is ON JACK!

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 22, 2014
Sacramento Kings vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Total
211 un-110
  at  BMAKER
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Kings/Timberwolves UNDER 211

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves.  If this was last year, this total would be justified, but these are two completely different teams from last year.

Minnesota no longer has Kevin Love, and it is battling all kinds of injury issues right now.  It is without each of its top three scorers in Kevin Martin (20.4 ppg), Thaddeus Young (14.3 ppg) and Nikola Pekovic (11.9 ppg) due to injuries or personal issues right now. They are also without starting PG Ricky Rubio right now, which has hurt their offense.

Points were certainly hard to come by for the Timberwolves in their first game without all three of these guys last night.  The Timberwolves managed just 92 points on 41.1% shooting against the San Antonio Spurs Friday.

Sacramento lost point guard Isaiah Thomas this offseason, but it has actually been better without him.  It is off to a solid 7-5 start this season.  The biggest reason is its improvement on defense as it is giving up just 100.8 points per game and 43.8% shooting.

The Kings actually rank in the top half of the league (13th) in defensive efficiency this year, giving up 103.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Timberwolves are a better defensive team without Martin and Pekovic, who are liabilities on that end.  So, their defensive numbers should improve going forward.

The Kings & Timberwolves have combined for 209 or fewer points in each of their last three meetings, and six of their last seven meetings overall.  That says a lot because the Timberwolves were a much better offensive team with Kevin Love and a healthy Rubio, Pekovic and Martin.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (SACRAMENTO) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games are 58-25 (69.9%) over the last five seasons.  Minnesota is 20-7 to the UNDER in its last 27 home games after having lost five or six of its last seven games.  Sacramento is 17-4 to the UNDER in its last 21 off four straight games where it forced opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 22, 2014
Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Total
208½ un-105
  at  5DIMES
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Raptors/Cavaliers UNDER 208.5

This is a matchup between two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  I fully expect a defensive battle as the Toronto Raptors travel to face the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

Both teams rank right in the middle of the pack in pace.  Toronto is 13th with 95.9 possessions per game, while Cleveland is 17th at 95.4 possessions per game.  Neither of these teams really like to get up and down as they prefer to run their offense in the half court.

Toronto is combining with its opponents to average 201.6 points per game this season.  Cleveland is combining with its foes to average 204.5 points per game on the year.  Those two numbers alone show you that there is a ton of value in backing this UNDER tonight.

The Cavaliers are averaging just 88.3 points per game during their current three-game losing streak.  Their defense has been better as they have held three of their last four opponents to 94 or fewer points.  All three of them were good offensive teams in Atlanta, San Antonio and Washington as well.

Toronto and Cleveland have combined for 202 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings, including 196 or less in five of those.  Dating back further, they have combined for 202 or fewer in 11 of their last 12 games as well.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 208.5.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 22, 2014
Colorado vs. Wyoming
Colorado
-1½-105
  at  5DIMES
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Top Premium

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado -1.5

I am big on Colorado this season and believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They returned four starters from last year's team that went 23-12 and made the NCAA Tournament.

I backed them in their opener in a 65-48 home win over Drexel as a 14-point favorite.  I wish I would have been on them in their 90-59 home win over Auburn as an 11.5-point favorite last time out.  I'll get back on them tonight as a small road favorite over Wyoming.

Askia Booker, Wesley Gordon, Xavier Johnson and Josh Scott are the four returning starters.  Scott is averaging 19.0 points and 10.0 rebounds through two games, while Gordon (12.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg), Johnson (12.5 ppg) and Booker (8.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg) have all made significant contributions early.

Wyoming is a solid team that returns four starters from a squad that went 18-15 last year.  I really do believe the Cowboys will be a good bet for most of this season, but just not today as they are overmatched and outclassed.

Also, you have to be concerned if you are a Wyoming backer after its first two games.  It only beat Northern Colorado 78-70 at home as an 11-point favorite followed by a 61-46 victory against Western Colorado State.  Those two results are far from impressive, and they aren't battle-tested at all after playing those two weak opponents.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (COLORADO) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Wyoming is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a game where it was called for 10 or less fouls.  The Cowboys are 0-8 ATS in thier last eight after two straight games where their opponent grabbed 26 or less rebounds.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 22, 2014
Wisconsin vs. Iowa
Iowa
+10½-110
  at  BOVADA
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Iowa Hawkeyes +10.5

After going on the road and beating Illinois 30-14 last week while outgaining the Illini by 352 yards in the win, the Iowa Hawkeyes now control their own destiny in the in the Big Ten West division.  Win out and they will be going to the Big Ten Championship game.

Of course, the same can be said for Wisconsin, which controls its own destiny as well.  The betting public is all over this team after annihilating Nebraska at home last week behind a record 408 rushing yards from Melvin Gordon.  I simply believe the Badgers are overvalued this week because of it.  Asking them to win by double-digits at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City to cover the spread is asking too much.

Kirk Ferentz teams always tend to play better against primary running teams like Wisconsin.  In fact, Ferentz is 18-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more yards per game as the coach of Iowa.  This team has been solid against the run again this year, allowing 148 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry.

Iowa does have a nice home-field advantage inside Kinnick Stadium and has throughout the years.  It is 4-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game.  That includes blowout home wins over Northwestern (48-7) and Indiana (45-29).  Ferentz is 15-7 ATS in his career as a home underdog in Big Ten play.

Wisconsin is just 2-2 on the road this season with its wins coming against Big Ten bottom feeders Purdue and Rutgers.  It did lose 14-20 at Northwestern back on October 4th as a 7.5-point favorite in that game.  Again, Iowa beat Northwestern 48-7 a few weeks ago.

Common opponents show that these two teams are pretty much equals.  They have played the same four teams this season in Illinois, Maryland, Northwestern and Purdue.  Wisconsin is 3-1 against those four teams, outscoring them by 16.3 points per game and outgaining them by 214.5 yards per game.  Iowa is 3-1 against those teams as well, outscoring them by 16.0 points per game and outgaining them by 233.5 yards per game.

Here's another great rushing trend.  Ferentz is 22-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry as the coach of Iowa.  I look for the Hawkeyes to hold this Wisconsin rushing attack in check and to make enough plays offensively to stay within double-digits of the Badgers, possibly pulling off the upset.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

No. 4 Ranked College Football Handicapper in 2014-15! Remember, Jack Jones was also the No. 3 CFB Capper from 2012-13, so he's no one-hit wonder! He has gone a RIDICULOUS 14-2 L2 Saturday's, which includes a 10-2 mark on the college gridiron! Jack is riding a HUGE 196-146 NCAAF Run long-term! Crush your book once again this weekend with Jack's Saturday College Football 7-Pack for $59.95! This card features THREE 20* Top Plays along with four 15* winners! It would cost you roughly $225.00 to buy all seven picks separately, so YOU SAVE $165.00 by signing up for his 7-Pack! You are GUARANTEED PROFITS or Sunday NFL is ON JACK!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 22, 2014
USC vs. UCLA
USC
+4-109
  at  PINNACLE
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Premium

15* USC/UCLA ABC Saturday No-Brainer on USC +4

In a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire, I’ll be taking the USC Trojans as 4-point underdogs over the Bruins. This game could easily be decided by a field goal either way, so I believe there is some value in taking the dog here. The Trojans want revenge from their last two losses to the Bruins. After all, they had won 12 of 13 meetings prior to those two losses.

USC (7-3) has yet to be blown out this season and really could be 10-0 right now. Its three losses have come to Utah (21-24), Arizona State (34-38) and Boston College (31-37) by a combined 13 points. It has gone on the road and beaten Arizona (28-26) and Stanford (13-10), so it has proven it can play well away from home against some of the top competition in the Pac-12.

UCLA may be the most overrated team in the country as it is nowhere near as good as its 8-2 record would indicate. Five of its eight wins have come by eight points or less. Both of its losses have actually come at home this season to the likes of Utah and Oregon. This is a team that is getting a little more respect than it deserves due to its four-game winning streak coming in, two of which came against Colorado and California by a combined five points.

The Trojans are the better defensive team in this one. They are only giving up 23.3 points and 399.2 yards per game this season against opponents that average 31.3 points and 440 yards per game. The Bruins are allowing 27.9 points and 410.0 yards per game against opponents that are averaging 33.4 points and 436 yards per game. 

USC may have as much NFL talent on both sides of the ball combined as any team in the country.  They tend to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides as they have a plus-two sack differential on the year.  UCLA, meanwhile, is minus-11 in sack differential on offense and defense.  I look for the Trojans winning the line of scrimmage to be the key in their upset bid this weekend.

Cody Kessler is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country and doesn’t get enough credit for the job he does with this USC offense, which is putting up 35.2 points per game on the season. Kessler is completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 2,919 yards and a sensational 29-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio. Javorius Allen is a beast, rushing for 1,184 yards and eight touchdowns. Nelson Agholor has 82 receptions for 1,079 yards and 10 scores on the season.

UCLA is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite. The Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. The Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. UCLA is 3-7 ATS in all games this season.  The top six teams in the Pac-12, including USC, have a combined conference road record of 19-4.  Bet USC Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 22, 2014
Boston College vs. Florida State
Boston College
+17-106
  at  PINNACLE
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +17

The Florida State Seminoles are in a massive letdown spot Saturday against the Boston College Eagles.  They are coming off another miracle win at Miami where they had to come back from 23-7 down to win 30-26.  That was their biggest game of the season, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown when they return home this week.

Florida State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country all year.  It is 10-0, but just 3-7 ATS on the season.  Time and time again it is laying too big of spreads that it cannot cover.  Even in the three games they covered, they barely got there.  They covered the spread by a combined 9.5 points in their three covers.

Florida State has only beaten two teams all season by more than 18 points.  Those came against FCS foe The Citadel in a 25-point win as a 56.5-point favorite against against ACC bottom feeder Wake Forest in a 40-point win as a 37-point favorite.

The Seminoles only won by 6 as an 18.5-point favorite against Oklahoma State, by 6 as a 10-point favorite against Clemson, by 15 as a 16.5-point favorite against NC State, by 18 as a 23.5-point favorite against Syracuse, by 4 as a 9-point favorite against Notre Dame, and by 14 as a 21-point favorite against Virginia in a bevy of games that they did not cover.

Boston College is a sneaky team that has been better than it gets credit for this season.  It is 6-4 on the year with its only losses coming to Pitt, Colorado State, Clemson and Louisville with three of those coming by 10 or fewer points.  It even has a win against USC, which is one of the better teams in the country.

What I like most about this Boston College team is how well it has played on the road this season.  It is a perfect 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS away from home in 2014, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.8 points per game.  The Eagles play tremendous defense as they rank 16th in the country in total defense at 323.5 yards per game.  They give up just 17.2 points and 273.5 yards per game on the road.

Boston College played Florida State tougher than anyone last year outside of Auburn in the National Championship Game.  It only lost 34-48 at home to the Seminoles as a 23.5-point underdog.  The Seminoles even got a Hail Mary touchdown pass at the end of the first half to take a 24-17 lead into the break in that game.  The Eagles rushed for 200 yards in the loss, and their ground game should once again be able to control the ball and keep the FSU offense off the field for the majority of this game.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (FLORIDA ST) - after eight or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (winning at least 80% of their games) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1992. Boston College is 37-20 ATS in its last 57 vs. a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better.  The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 following an ATS loss.  The Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 22, 2014
Ole Miss vs. Arkansas
Arkansas
+3½-110
  at  5DIMES
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

15* Ole Miss/Arkansas SEC ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +3.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks (5-5) are the best team in the country that currently has a .500 record or worse. They have proven capable of playing with anyone and can beat any team on their best day. They are much better than their 5-5 record would indicate, and that has been shown all season as they have taken some of the best teams in the country down to the wire.

The losses to Alabama (13-14) and Mississippi State (10-17) by a combined eight points have proven that they can play with anyone. Alabama is currently the No. 1 team in the playoff rankings while Mississippi State is No. 4. Finally, the Razorbacks put an end to their 17-game SEC losing streak with a dominant 17-0 home victory over LSU last week.

The Razorbacks held the Tigers to just 123 yards of total offense in the win. Sure, this could be a letdown spot for them off such a big victory, but I’m not buying it. That’s because they still need one more win to become bowl eligible, so they will have no problem coming back this week motivated. They don’t want to leave it up to next week, where they’d have to go into Missouri and win to get bowl eligible if they lose to Ole Miss here.

Sure, Ole Miss (8-2) is coming off a bye week, but this team isn’t the same squad that opened 7-0 and was ranked No. 1 in the country. It has lost two of three since with its only victory coming against Presbyterian. It lost 7-10 at LSU and 31-35 at home against Auburn to crush its playoff chances. Now, the Rebels can’t win the SEC, and their two losses will keep them out of the playoffs. They are kind of stuck in la-la land here with not much to play for. They could also be looking ahead to their huge Egg Bowl showdown with Mississippi State next week.

Ole Miss has lost arguably its two best players on both sides of the football. On defense, linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche is out for the season with an ankle injury. Offensively, top receiver Laquon Treadwell was lost for the season with a gruesome ankle injury at the end of the Auburn game. Treadwell has a team-high 48 receptions for 632 yards and five touchdowns this year and will be impossible to replace.  Without question, he was their biggest playmaker.

Arkansas boasts one of the best defenses in the country. It is allowing just 22.2 points and 340.6 yards per game this season. What makes that so impressive is that opposing offenses average 31.4 points and 435 yards per game, so they are holding them to 9.2 points and 94 yards per game below their season averages.

The Razorbacks have held Alabama, Mississippi State and LSU to 31 combined points, or an average of 10.3 points per game.  They held Alabama and LSU to a combined 14 points and 350 combined total yards in their two home games.  That’s all you need to know about how good this defense has been and is capable of being.

Arkansas is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8.0 yards per attempt or more this season. The Razorbacks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Razorbacks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to Arkansas.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 22, 2014
Louisville vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame
-3-110
  at  BMAKER
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -3

What would this line be had Notre Dame (7-3) not self-destructed in losing three of its last four games?  That's an important question I asked myself when looking into this game, and I came up with that they'd be anywhere from a 7-10 point favorite.  That's why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Fighting Irish only laying a field against Louisville (7-3) Saturday.

Notre Dame could easily be 10-0 right now.  It had a game-winning touchdown called back in a 27-31 loss to Florida State on the road in which it outgained the Seminoles by 147 yards.  It lost at Arizona State despite outgaining the Sun Devils by 75 yards due to committing five turnovers.  It also lost at home to Northwestern last week 40-43 in a game it led 40-29 with only four minutes remaining.

The fact of the matter is that Notre Dame is still one of the most talented teams in the country.  I also trust Brian Kelly to get his team refocused as he is one of the best motivators in all of college football.  This is also Senior Day for the Fighting Irish.  That combination of talent and motivation to right the ship and win one for the seniors will have the Fighting Irish putting forth one of their best performances of the season Saturday.

This Notre Dame offense has been dynamite outside of the turnovers, which are correctable.  It is putting up 35.4 points and 465.4 yards per game against teams that only allow 26.1 points and 383 yards per game.  Everett Golson is the real deal, completing 61% of his passes for 3,044 yards with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while also rushing for 342 yards and a team-high eight scores.

I don't think Louisville would stand much of a chance even if starting quarterback Will Gardner was healthy, but now that he is out for the season with a knee injury it has no shot to win this game.  Gardner averaged 7.6 yards per attempt with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. 

The backup is freshman Reggie Bonnafon, who will make his fourth start of the year but has not impressed me at all.  He is completing just 55.4 percent of his passes, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt, and has four touchdowns against one pick.  He did most of his damage against Syracuse, Wake Forest and Boston College.  This Notre Dame defense that is giving up a respectable 382.6 yards per game and 5.3 per play is a different animal.

Notre Dame is a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75% over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Brian Kelly is 16-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached.  Roll with Notre Dame Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 22, 2014
Marshall vs. UAB
UAB
+20-106
  at  PINNACLE
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on UAB +20

The Marshall Thundering Herd are 10-0 right now and certainly want to finish the season unbeaten.  However, with that 10-0 record comes lofty expectations from the oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to right now.  I believe that is certainly the case this week against a UAB team that will give them a run for their money.

This marks the ninth time this year that the Thundering Herd will be laying at least 20 points.  They have managed to go a sensational 7-2-1 ATS, covering the spread time and time again.  The betting public has been pounding them and continues to do so this week because of it.  That has driven this line way higher than it should be, and there's a ton of value in backing the dog this week.

UAB (5-5) is the single-toughest team that Marshall has played this season.  This is the same Blazers team that put up 34 points and 548 yards on Mississippi State early in the season.  As you know, Mississippi State is currently the No. 4 team in the playoff rankings with its only loss coming by five points at No. 1 Alabama.

The Blazers will come into this game highly motivated to get bowl eligible.  They will also be coming in fresh as they had a bye last week following their 24-40 loss to Louisiana Tech on November 8th.  I believe that loss to the Bulldogs has them undervalued.  LA Tech is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

First-year head coach Bill Clark is one of the most underrated coaches in the land and will eventually land a bigger job elsewhere.  His offense has been explosive this season, putting up 33.5 points and 428.8 yards per game.  The defense has been respectable as well, giving up just 399.5 yards per game.  This team is capable of scoring with Marshall, as evidenced by the 34 points they put up on Mississippi State.

This is the definition of a letdown spot for Marshall as well.  It is coming off its most anticipated game of the season, a win over Rice that was only only a revenge rematch of last year's C-USA Title Game, but also a day when the university had its annual remembrance of the 1970 plane crash.  It also dedicated its new hall of fame.

Not only is UAB coming off an open date, it also will have the support of an active home crowd with the campus rallying in protest over reports that the university may disband the football program.  So, from a motivational standpoint, the Blazers will be the more intense team on Saturday.

Marshall is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in two straight games.  The Blazers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  UAB is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit home loss.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take UAB Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 22, 2014
Missouri vs. Tennessee
Tennessee
-3½-110
  at  BMAKER
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee -3.5

The Tennessee Volunteers (5-5) were one of the youngest teams in college football coming into the season.  They were also one of the most talented with the recruits that Butch Jones has been stockpiling over the last two years.  Well, that talent is growing up in a hurry, and the Volunteers are arguably the most improved team in the country from the first half to the second half.

They have played one of the toughest schedules in the land as they have had to play four current top-15 teams with three of those on the road.  Yet, they are still outscoring the opposition by an average of 5 points per game.  They have now won their last two games impressively with a 45-42 (OT) win at South Carolina and a 50-16 beat down at home against Kentucky.

The biggest reason for the turnaround by Tennessee has been the insertion of Josh Dobbs at quarterback.  He is completing 62% of his passes with a 7-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.  He has also rushed for 259 yards and four touchdowns, so he's much more of a dual-threat than Justin Worley was.  He led this Tennessee offense to 20 points against Alabama, 45 against South Carolina and 50 against Kentucky in his three starts.

The Vols now have an offense that can complement their defense, which is sensational.  The Vols rank 39th in the country in total defense, giving up 24.1 points and 363.7 yards per game.  They are 4-2 at home this season and giving up just 16.0 points and 389.8 yards per game at home.  That includes a minuscule 4.4 yards per play at home.

Missouri has played a much, much weaker schedule than Tennessee up to this point.  I would argue that the Tigers are the single-most overrated team in the entire country, or at least right up there in the top five due to their laughable 8-2 record.  They hold that record despite only outgaining teams by an average of 14.7 yards per game on the season.

I just do not trust this Missouri offense to do anything against this Tennessee defense.  The Tigers rank 107th in the country in total offense at 355.8 yards per game.  Maty Mauk just isn't a very good quarterback.  He is completing a woeful 53.1 percent of his passes while averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt on the season.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams.  Both Missouri and Tennessee have faced the same four opponents in Florida, Georgia, Kentucky and South Carolina.  Tennessee is outgaining those opponents by 58 yards per game, while Missouri is getting outgained by those same opponents by 92 yards per game.  Keep in mind that Dobbs did not play in either the Florida or the Georgia game, too.

Plays on home favorites (TENNESSEE) - after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games, with 5 defensive starters returning are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Vols put up 645 yards on South Carolina and 511 yards on Kentucky with Dobbs at the helm.  He comes through with another strong performance this weekend in a blowout win over the Tigers.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 22, 2014
Miami (Fla) vs. Virginia
Virginia
+6-106
  at  PINNACLE
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia +6

The Miami Hurricanes are in a massive hangover spot here form their 26-30 loss to Florida State last weekend.  That loss eliminated them from Coastal Division Title contention, and now they will fall flat on their faces this week against the Virginia Cavaliers.

Virginia is fresh off a bye and needs to win its final two games to get bowl eligible.  So, not only will the Hurricanes come out flat in this game, they'll also be running into a fresh Cavaliers team that is hungry to play in the postseason.  That's not a good combination for Miami backers this week.  Plus, the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.

The Cavaliers have shown me enough to know that they are better than their 4-6 record would indicate, especially at home.  Earlier this year they nearly upset a top-10 UCLA team, but lost 20-28 due to the Bruins getting three defensive touchdowns.  They did upset top-25 Louisville 23-21.

Virginia has won three of its past four meetings with Miami, and there have been six upsets in the past 10 years in the series.  Last year when these two played, Virginia had a 28-11 first-down edge on the road, and this year's version of the Cavaliers is much better.  They did lose that game 26-45 last year, but it was a complete fluke as they outgained the Hurricanes 483-304 for the game.

Miami has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home.  It is just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS with all three of its losses coming by double-digits to Georgia Tech (17-28), Nebraska (31-41) and Louisville (13-31).  It has no business laying points on the road to Virginia with those kinds of results.

I love this matchup for Virginia because its strength is stopping the run while Miami's strength is running the football.  The Hurricanes are averaging 197 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry behind Duke Johnson.  Virginia is only giving up 119 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry against opposing offenses that average 174 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.

Plays against road favorites (MIAMI) - excellent offensive team (440-Plus YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Miami is 1-9 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in four consecutive games since 1992.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 23, 2014
USC vs. Penn State
Penn State
-6½-110
  
Play Type: Premium

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -6.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They return four starters from a team that went 16-18 last year and improved as the season went on.

Those returning starters are D.J. Newbill (17.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Brandon Taylor (9.2 ppg, 4.8 apg), Donovon Jack (6.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg) and Ross Davis (8.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg).  Newbill has picked up right where he left off last year, scoring 24.0 points per game and averaging 6.0 rebounds per game thus far.

Penn State is off to a solid 3-1 start this season.  Its only loss came in overtime a few days ago to a very good Charlotte team that has yet to lose this season.  Charlotte plays Miami in the Charleston Classic Championship today.

USC is a team in rebuilding mode.  It went just 11-21 last year, including 2-16 in Pac-12 play.  Now, it has only two starters back from that team in Julian Jacobs (6.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Nikola Jovanovic (8.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg).  They lose their top four scorers from last year in Byron Wesley (17.8 ppg), Pe'Shon Howard (10.8 ppg), J.T. Terrell (9.8 ppg) and Omar Oraby (8.2 ppg).

USC is just 2-2 on the season despite playing an extremely soft schedule.  Its two wins have come against Tennessee Tech (70-58) and Drexel (72-70), which are two horrible teams.  It even lost at home to Portland State (68-76) as a 10-point favorite and to Akron (46-66) as a 3.5-point favorite in the opening round of the Charleston Classic.  This team simply is not very good based on these results.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PENN ST) - bad pressure defensive team from last season - forced less than 12 turnovers/game, with four starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 55-26 (67.9%) ATS since 1997.  The Nittany Lions are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 when playing their second game in three days.  Roll with Penn State Sunday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 23, 2014
Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos
Miami Dolphins
+7-115
  
Play Type: Free

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Miami Dolphins +7

The Denver Broncos (7-3) are a mess right now. They are dealing with injuries to four of their best skill players on offense, leaving Peyton Manning short-handed. Montee Ball (groin) isn’t expected to return until early December, while Julius Thomas (ankle) and Ronnie Hillman (foot)  are doubtful.  Emmanuel Sanders (concussion) is listed as questionable.

It’s no wonder the Broncos scored a season-low seven points in their 7-22 loss to the Rams last week. They lost Thomas to an ankle injury early in the game. Then, Sanders went out with a concussion later on. The Broncos’ offense stalled the rest of the way and could never mount a comeback. Peyton Manning just isn’t the same quarterback without all of these weapons.

Sanders is second on the team in receiving with 67 receptions for 954 yards and seven touchdowns. Thomas has 40 catches for 426 yards and a team-high 12 touchdowns, so Manning is going to be without his top two red zone targets. Hillman leads the team in rushing with 378 yards and three scores, while also catching 20 balls for 137 yards and a touchdown. This Denver offense is just rather pedestrian without these three guys.

I have been very impressed with Miami this season. It is every bit as good as its 6-4 record would indicate, and it has been playing its best football over the last five weeks. The Dolphins have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. In fact, they are 5-2 in their last seven games with their only two losses coming to Detroit (16-20) and Green Bay (24-27) by a combined seven points. Both the Lions and Packers are two of the best teams in the NFC this year, and they arguably should have beat both, losing on late scores in the closing seconds.

Miami ranks in the top half of the league in total offense at 348.4 yards per game this season under new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. However, the defense is the biggest reason for the Dolphins’ success. They rank 2nd in the league in total defense, giving up just 302.5 yards per game. They are also 7th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 45.9 yards per contest. That is the sign of an elite team, and one that is fully capable of giving the short-handed Broncos a run for their money.

The Dolphins come into this game on an extra three days’ rest having played last Thursday in a dominant 22-9 home win over the Bills. That extra preparation will be huge for this team as they get ready for Manning and company. The Broncos could be looking ahead to their showdown with the Chiefs next week knowing that first place in the division will be on the line in that game. I just like the Dolphins’ physical and mental state better than that of the Broncos heading into this one.

Denver is 19-41 ATS in its last 60 vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better. Miami is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 vs. AFC west opponents. The Dolphins are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Broncos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Denver, including 4-0 ATS in the last four road meetings.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

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Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 23, 2014
Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons
-3-106
  
Play Type: Premium

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Falcons -3

The Atlanta Falcons (4-6) actually find themselves tied for first place in the division despite their 4-6 record, and they even own the tiebreaker over the Saints. Such is life in the NFC South this season, but the Falcons aren’t going to complain. Most 4-6 teams at this point in the season would have little to play for, but that’s not the case here.

The Falcons have scratched, clawed and fought their way back into contention with impressive road wins at Tampa Bay and Carolina the past two weeks. Their solid play here of late even extends back to the game before as they held a 21-0 lead over the Lions in London only to lose on a last-second field goal, 22-21.  The Lions are one of the best teams in the NFC.

The biggest difference for the Falcons during this stretch of solid play is their defense. They have held their last three opponents to an average of just 18.7 points per game. That has helped compliment an offense that remains one of the league’s best. The Falcons are putting up 23.8 points per game while ranking 10th in total offense at 367.3 yards per game.

Cleveland (6-4) is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL this season. It is nowhere near as good as its 6-4 record would indicate, and the numbers show it. The Browns rank just 22nd in the league in total defense, giving up 372.3 yards per game. They also rank 21st in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 16.2 yards per game. Of all the teams that rank below them at 22nd or worse in this department, only the Bengals have a winning record. Cincinnati is also an overrated team.  The Browns have been outgained in four of their last five games, including to Oakland, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville.

The Browns gave up 424 total yards to a mediocre Houston offense last week, including 213 rushing without Arian Foster, in their 23-7 loss.  The Browns are just decimated right now in the injury department on defense.  They are already missing defensive end Phil Taylor and linemen Armonty Bryant and John Hughes.  Ahtyba Rubin and Billy Winn have been slowed all season by injuries.  Now, they are going to be without their top two linebackers in Karlos Dansby (leading tackler, 73 tackles, 10 for loss, 3 sacks) and Jabaal Sheard (6 TFL, 2 sacks), who each went down with injuries in the loss to Houston.

I know that the Cleveland offense gets back Josh Gordon this week, but that's another reason I believe it is being overvalued here.  Gordon hasn't played all season and I expect him to be a non-factor this week, or at least not as big of a factor as he's getting credit for.  One thing here that gets overlooked is that the Browns have had no running game since center Alex Mack went out with a season-ending injury.  They are averaging just 2.5 yards per carry in Mack's absence.

The Falcons have actually done a decent job of getting to 4-6 this season because they have only played three home games all year compared to seven on the road. They are 2-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.3 yards per game. Matt Ryan is 38-12 as a starter inside the Georgia Dome for his career. Many folks like to forget how much more dominant he has been at home compared to on the road over his career.

Cleveland, meanwhile, has played six of its 10 games at home thus far, which had aided its 6-4 record.  It is a respectable 2-2 on the road with a good win against Cincinnati a couple weeks ago, but the other three performances leave a lot to be desired.  The Browns lost 6-24 at Jacksonville, came back from 28-3 down to win 29-28 at lowly Tennessee, and came back from 27-3 down to lose 27-30 at Pittsburgh in the opener.

Plays on favorites (ATLANTA) – after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1983. Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a home favorite. The Browns are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game. Cleveland is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a losing record. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  I look for Ryan and company to win in a shootout.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

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