Teasing College Football Road Underdogs
Posted by Jimmy Boyd - Google+
It’s becoming more and more common to bet teasers in college football, so I wanted to do some due diligence to see what the best odds are to tease. I looked at every college football game from 1989 to 2011 and broke it down into different situations. The table below shows only road underdogs, how many games landed on each spread, how many times a 6, 7, or 10 point tease would have resulted in a win or push, and the overall win rate for those teases. I then compared the win rate to the required win rate needed to show a profit based on typical teaser odds. I’ve highlighted the only consistent winning rate below for your convenience. The 6 and 7 point teasers uses odds for two-team wagers, while the 10 point teaser is for three teams.
|
Line
|
Games
|
6 Point
|
6 Point Pushes
|
7 Point
|
7 Point Pushes
|
10 Point
|
10 Point Pushes
|
6 Point Win Rate
|
7 Point Win Rate
|
10 Point Win Rate
|
|
0
|
94 | 67 | 3 | 69 | 2 | 76 | 4 | 70.33% | 72.83% | 80.00% |
|
-1
|
277 | 193 | 11 | 196 | 3 | 219 | 4 | 68.42% | 70.44% | 78.75% |
|
-1.5
|
181 | 135 | 0 | 137 | 0 | 140 | 0 | 74.59% | 75.69% | 77.35% |
|
-2
|
234 | 166 | 6 | 170 | 4 | 182 | 2 | 70.18% | 72.17% | 77.59% |
|
-2.5
|
312 | 219 | 0 | 221 | 0 | 238 | 0 | 70.19% | 70.83% | 76.28% |
|
-3
|
434 | 306 | 19 | 320 | 7 | 339 | 18 | 69.16% | 73.30% | 77.16% |
|
-3.5
|
356 | 221 | 0 | 236 | 0 | 255 | 0 | 62.08% | 66.29% | 71.63% |
|
-4
|
279 | 203 | 5 | 207 | 15 | 224 | 9 | 72.26% | 72.73% | 79.63% |
|
-4.5
|
216 | 150 | 0 | 155 | 0 | 166 | 0 | 69.44% | 71.76% | 76.85% |
|
-5
|
215 | 147 | 4 | 148 | 0 | 158 | 6 | 67.77% | 68.84% | 72.73% |
|
-5.5
|
213 | 139 | 0 | 141 | 0 | 153 | 0 | 65.26% | 66.20% | 71.83% |
|
-6
|
294 | 186 | 1 | 193 | 8 | 209 | 7 | 63.14% | 64.69% | 70.38% |
|
-6.5
|
346 | 227 | 0 | 235 | 0 | 256 | 0 | 65.61% | 67.92% | 73.99% |
|
-7
|
459 | 294 | 8 | 308 | 9 | 329 | 22 | 63.41% | 66.44% | 70.25% |
|
-7.5
|
268 | 165 | 0 | 173 | 0 | 188 | 0 | 61.57% | 64.55% | 70.15% |
|
-8
|
249 | 160 | 5 | 163 | 10 | 179 | 1 | 63.52% | 64.02% | 71.77% |
|
-8.5
|
188 | 120 | 0 | 121 | 0 | 134 | 0 | 63.83% | 64.36% | 71.28% |
|
-9
|
233 | 154 | 15 | 157 | 6 | 168 | 1 | 63.76% | 66.52% | 71.98% |
|
-9.5
|
178 | 108 | 0 | 110 | 0 | 119 | 0 | 60.67% | 61.80% | 66.85% |
|
-10
|
303 | 187 | 6 | 198 | 10 | 218 | 2 | 60.94% | 64.16% | 71.76% |
|
-10.5
|
198 | 136 | 0 | 140 | 0 | 150 | 0 | 68.69% | 70.71% | 75.76% |
|
-11
|
206 | 141 | 3 | 146 | 6 | 159 | 4 | 67.98% | 70.00% | 76.73% |
|
-11.5
|
131 | 90 | 0 | 91 | 0 | 101 | 0 | 68.70% | 69.47% | 77.10% |
|
-12
|
194 | 143 | 6 | 144 | 9 | 154 | 4 | 72.87% | 72.97% | 78.95% |
|
-13
|
174 | 105 | 0 | 107 | 0 | 121 | 0 | 60.34% | 61.49% | 69.54% |
|
-13
|
263 | 176 | 9 | 180 | 4 | 198 | 15 | 65.75% | 67.95% | 73.79% |
|
-13.5
|
231 | 140 | 0 | 146 | 0 | 161 | 0 | 60.61% | 63.20% | 69.70% |
|
-14
|
313 | 182 | 3 | 194 | 18 | 218 | 7 | 57.74% | 59.66% | 68.95% |
|
-14.5
|
208 | 130 | 0 | 136 | 0 | 150 | 0 | 62.50% | 65.38% | 72.12% |
|
-15
|
194 | 131 | 5 | 132 | 2 | 154 | 2 | 66.67% | 67.71% | 79.17% |
| 70.71% | 73.85% | 81.70% | ||||||||
| 100 | -120 | -120 | ||||||||
*The % at the bottom of the table are what are required to beat the juice in the next row. All odds highlighted that beat that number and thus would be profitable.
As you can see from the data, there are only a few situations that have been consistent profitable for teasing road underdogs. For example, teasing road underdogs of 1.5 points by 7 points has been profitable historically. This makes sense because an underdog of only 1.5 points is most likely the better team, they just happen to be on the road. Teasing them up to 8.5 points gets you past several key numbers (3,4 and 7) and makes it impossible to result in a push. Maybe the most surprising information comes on 14-point road underdogs. Teasing them from 14 to 20 or even 21 has resulted in the worst odds in this particular situation. Apparently if a team is bad enough to be two touchdown underdogs, they are bad enough to lose by three touchdowns or more at a pretty consistent rate. Be sure to check this table to see if you are getting good odds before you tease a road underdog in college football.
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