Alex Smart Free Picks & Sports Handicapper Review

Seton Hall will play without star guard Myles Powell and that will adversely effect their offensive flow of a team that is defensive minded in nature. Meanwhile, Michigan State is expected play without senior guard Joshua Langford which will also effect the Spartans offence as he compliments star guard Cassius Winston.  With that said, Im taking the under here in a game that should be grinding and physical in nature.

MICHIGAN ST is 7-0 UNDER  after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less over the last 2 seasons which was the case in a 100-47 beatdown of Binghamton last time out. 

Play UNDER 

The Arizona Coyotes made history by defeating the Capitals in Washington on Monday night and the Blues in St. Louis the next evening and now because of those monumental efforts they are going to be in a big emotional let down spot vs a Wild  side that may not motivate them. Add to that this is the Coyotes 3 game and 4 nights, and we have an advantage with a home side that has played their best hockey at home this season notching 3 wins and in 5 tilts as hosts. Minnesota is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing Arizona.

Play on Minnesota Wild to win on the ML

 Pittsburgh at home this season has averaged just 19.1 ppg on offence with the Defense allowing just 20.8 ppg. Pittsburgh has set the pace of late, and Im betting nothing changes here this week vs North Carolina in what Im betting will be grinding affair. 

N CAROLINA is 22-9 UNDER  vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att.

PITTSBURGH is 7-0 UNDER after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored.

PITTSBURGH is 12-3 UNDER  in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 46 ppg scored. 

 teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (PITTSBURGH) - after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning are 69-32 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Kent State enters this game against Buffalo showing signs of improvement on offence, and overall have averaged 34.7 ppg at home this season behind the arm of QB Duston Crumb and viable run game. Meanwhile the Flashes  D, especially their run defence, has been a shambles , allowing 300+ yards to Toledo last week, and ranking  123rd in opponent rushing success rate. Buffalo’s rushing attack, which ranks 52nd in success rate Im betting has a big day , and that in turn will open up more downfield options and big plays for the Bulls. Look for both sides to light up the board tonight in MAC action. 

BUFFALO is 8-1 OVER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 75.5 ppg scored.BUFFALO is 9-0 OVER  after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 59.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER 

Dallas has revenge on board for a 106-102 loss at home back in November, and Im betting we see them at their best here in the rematch vs a NYK side that ha lost 6 of their L/7 SU overall and 9 of their L/11. 

NEW YORK is 9-23 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -12.9 ppg.

Carlisle is 21-9 ATS  as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of DALLAS with the average ppg diff registering at +11.9 ppg.The Mavericks are 12-2 ATS L/14 on the road.

NBA Road teams (DALLAS) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 PPG or less  differential), after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games are 39-9 ATS L/23 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover 

Phoenix is 8th in pace in the NBA and 6th in offensive output,(116.6) and will push all comers into speeding up their game, and opening up or be blown off the court. That is exactly the situation we have here tonight as Atlanta visits in their 3rd  western road game in 5 nights. Run and gun until the clock tips in at zero. The two most recent meetings between these teams last season saw 230 and 232 combined points cored.

Atlanta has gone over in 3 straight games with the combined score of 237.7 ppg scored. Suns have gone over in 4 straight with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored.

ATLANTA is 12-2 OVER after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 249.3 ppg going on the board. 

PHOENIX is 15-4 OVER after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 232.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHOENIX) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 25-3 OVER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Cleveland after a slow start to their season have won 2 of their L/3 with the one loss coming to the 76ers by just 1 points. In their current form they are viable underdogs on their own floor here against a Miami team that maybe flashing slightly bloated recency bias favorite status. 

Cavs are 7-2-1 ATS L/10 overall.

NBA Road teams  (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 10-41 SU L/5 seasons for a less than 20% win ratio. 

NBA favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 30-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavs to cover 

The Steelers have shown their resiliency  by winning four games in a row and five of their past six, with back QBs in the lineup. However, this week , they 're main mode of moving the chains starting running back James Conner and rookie Benny Snell are banged up and less than 100% if they play. If  QB Mason Rudolph has to go the air more often , because of a lack of ground game he will bump into a up trending Cleveland secondary that must be respected. Meanwhile, I look for a Browns team coming into this with momentum after a late TD win last time out, to come right at the  Steelers run D that is ranked 16th in the league behind the legs of Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb and do extensive damage . 

Tomlin is 6-15 ATS  in road games after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of PITTSBURGH which was the case in 17-12 win vs the Rams last time out.Tomlin is 9-18 ATS in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of PITTSBURGH.

NFL team (PITTSBURGH) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 3-23 L/36 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover