Alex Smart Free Picks & Sports Handicapper Review

CHRIS ARCHER (R) vs. DYLAN BUNDY (R)

TB is producing on offense of late and have scored 8 runs or more in 4 of their L/6 games and should be able to do some offensive damage vs the Orioles starting pitcher Bundy.  Baltimore has been struggling to score of late, but they go against a pitcher in Archer that is struggling as is evident by a 6.58 ERA on the season. He is backed by a bullpen that owns a 6.11 ERA. I expect they should do enough damage here to help our OVER cause in this spot.
ARCHER is 5-7 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 5.01 and a WHIP of 1.418.BUNDY is 1-2 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 7.03 and a WHIP of 1.603.

Over is 6-2 in Bundys last 8 starts vs. American League East.Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Over is 4-0 in Bundys last 4 starts vs. Rays.

Over is 5-0 in Rays last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 5-0 in Archers last 5 starts overall.Over is 7-1 in Rays last 8 overall.
Over is 3-1-1 in Archers last 5 road starts vs. Orioles.

ARCHER is 9-0 OVER L/9 as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last couple of seasons with the combined average of 11.9 rpg scored. ARCHER is 15-5 OVER L/19 in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse  with a combined 10.1 rpg scored.

TAMPA BAY is 18-5 OVER L/23 on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 with a combined average of 9.6 rpg scored. TAMPA BAY is 14-4 OVER L/18 vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season with a combined average of 9.9 rpg scored.

MLB  teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (BALTIMORE) - poor AL offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA 4.50 or more ), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL) are 66-30 OVER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

NOAH SYNDERGAARD (R) vs. CARLOS MARTINEZ (R)

The NY Mets are averaging 5.1 rpg on the road this season, and the Cardinals are doing their best work on offense vs righties this season 5 rpg vs right starters. My own projections considering offenses vs pitching and bullpen power rankings suggests we have an edge with a over bet on the total.


Over is 6-1-1 in Syndergaards last 8 starts during game 3 of a series.Over is 4Over is 25-9-2 in Mets last 36 road games vs. a team with a winning record.-1 in Mets last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Over is 4-0 in Martinezs last 4 starts vs. National League East.Over is 4-0 in Martinezs last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 vs. National League East.

Over is 4-1-1 in Martinezs last 6 starts vs. Mets.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in St. Louis.

NY METS are 24-9 OVER in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season 11.7 rpg. NY METS are 20-9 OVER L/29 in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start with combined average of 10.3 rpg. NY METS are 33-12 OVER on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 with a combined average of 10.7 rpg. NY METS are 55-32 OVER in road games the last couple of seasons with a combined average of 10.5 rpg. NY METS are 12-3 OVER L/15 in road games against NL Central opponents with a combined average of 12 rpg scored.


MLB Home teams (ST LOUIS) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or less ), with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season 46-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

Play OVER

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-2

Boston is a character team, and rarely never give it 100% and consistently come out and play hard. The banged up Celtics have been tenacious in 4 of the 5 games in this series, and notched the 92-87  win last time out on their own home floor to grab a 3-2 lead in this series. The Bucks are very talented and I'm not being disrespectful here, but they don't have the same never say die work ethic the Celtics have. They won their two games at home in this series because of tremendous shooting ( 57,52% FG), but their FG% conversion rate has been wildly inconsistent this season, as was the case last time out when they scored just 87 points and converted on just 36.8% of their shots  I know this a do or die situation for the Bucks, but I'm betting the Celtics make this a war, and won;t let the Bucks take this to a game 7 without making it very physically difficult for their hosts, which makes getting points a viable betting opportunity in my humble opinion. 

Boston has covered 5 of their L/7 here in Milwaukee. 

BOSTON is 30-13 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.BOSTON is 17-5 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season.BOSTON is 20-6 ATS as an underdog this season.BOSTON is 13-5 ATS  after a win by 6 points or less this season.

MILWAUKEE is 8-18 ATS L/26 when playing against a team with a winning record.MILWAUKEE is 9-20 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or  free throws/game.MILWAUKEE is 4-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.MILWAUKEE is 3-11 ATS  in home games off a road loss this season.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover