Alex Smart Free Picks & Sports Handicapper Review

Utah has won 4 straight and are playing their best hoops of the season. The Nuggets could again be without Gary Harris, who has missed two straight games for personal reasons, and Michael Porter Jr. is out because of COVID-19 protocols which puts them at a disadvantage vs a motivated side lookin g for revenge from their play off series vs the Nuggets this past season in the bubble. 

Snyder is 21-7 ATS in road games after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 5 or more as the coach of UTAH.

Play on Utah to cover

The Pacers are are at the tail end of a 4 game west coast road trip, and will be prepared to pace themselves here vs a LA Clippers side that is well aware of their oppositions prowess. Im betting  on a offensive regression to the norm for the Clippers after running and gunning for 138 points last time out vs the Kings in a lopsided win. 

INDIANA is 48-23 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or kore  of their shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 212.1 ppg scored. 

The Pacers are 0-10 UNDER L/10 as a dog after their opponent shot under 40% from the field with a combined average of 206.3 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA/LA CLIPPERS) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 57-15 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

 The Saints beat Tom Brady and company have lost both meetings  this season but it must be noted that Brady is 18-3 SU revenging a  division loss  and   13-1 SU/ATS vs sides wtih a  .300 record or better with the only loss coming to the Saints this season.  Brady has never lost 3 times in a row to any team,. Considering HC Arians has won 16 of 23 road games vs division opposition and Brady seething with retribution at hand Im betting on TB getting us the cover. 

NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Arians is 14-4 ATS in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.

NFL Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after a game where they forced no turnovers are 14-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on TB to cover 

This is the last game of the Pacers 4 game west coast road trip which has seen them go 2-1 so far, and because of the lack of entetainment venues open because of covid , Im sure they are not that tired as a team, as rest and relaxation are key to every day life in the NBA right now . The Pacers are also according to my projections a much higher rating side than the linesmakers are giving them credit for here this evening in LA vs the Clippers.Meanwhile, the Clips are off a tilt where they shot the lights out in a 138-100 win vs the Kings, and could easily see a reversion to the mean here offensively, against one of the better defences in the league.  Lue is 10-25 ATS in home games after a combined score of 225 points or more in all games he has coached in his career. 

Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Clippers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.

Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Clippers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. .

NBA team vs the money line (INDIANA) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 130 points or more are 44-13 SU L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indiana to cover

 The Pelicans for the most part have payed attention to their defense and rank 7th in the league in ppg allowed while operating a pace that ranks 26th in the NBA. Here on the road Im betting on more disciplined hoops vs a Sacramento Kings group that plays has  shown very little discipline of late .Also  is the case with Van Gundy coached sides a consistent persistence on not losing control of the speed of game will continue to be implemented . This Im betting leads to a lower scoring game than the pundits might expect. 

Under is 5-2 in Pelicans last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 5-1 in Pelicans last 6 road games.

Play UNDER

The last 3 meetings in this series here in the Mile High City have been fairly low scoring affakirs and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here in a game that will fail to eclipse the total according to my projections. 

Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 overall. Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Denver.

UTAH is 35-21 UNDER  when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 season with a combined average of 213.6 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games are 79-41 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - vs. division opponents, playing with 2 days rest are 82-45 L/24 seasons for a  66% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

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My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

After watching Cleveland take part in a run and gun all out offensive affair last time out, in their win to advance to this game , vs Pittsburgh last week,  the pundits and linesmakers have jumped the gun and exaggerated this totals line. However, Im betting on the Browns knowing what they are going up against this week, and stick to their very viable  ground game in an attempt to keep explosive Chiefs offense off the field as much as possible, which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than expected.  KANSAS CITY is 35-17 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992 with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored. Reid is 21-6 UNDER  when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992  with a combined average of 43.5 ppg scored. Reid is 21-8 UNDER in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 42.4 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (CLEVELAND) - as a #6 seed in the playoffs, playoff game are 23-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

NFL  team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 29-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play UNDER