Alex Smart Free Picks & Sports Handicapper Review

Atlanta salvaged the last game of their series vs the Cards yesterday with a 7-3 win and now have some momentum and confidence entering this tilt vs the Philadelphia Phillies. Now with the Phillies sending the slumping Velasquez to the hill the Braves have a edge. The Philly starter has been abysmal recently recording a 9.82 ERA with 16 hits allowed in 11 innings in three September starts  and  has lost all four starts against the Braves this season, posting a 7.41 ERA with 29 hits allowed in 17 innings of ugly work. Meanwhile, Atlantas starter Gausman  has looked very good since coming over from  Baltimore in a trade  on July 31, as is evident by his solid 5-2 record in eight starts  along with a stable 2.61 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

Braves are 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a win.

PHILADELPHIA is 5-11  against the money line in September games this season.

The Phillies have lost 19 straight as a 125-plus dog off a home game in the first game of a series when their opponent is seeking same-season revenge for a loss.

Play on the. Atlanta Braves to win on the moneyline 

I was mildly surprised to Cleveland favoured by a FG or more when I looked at the early lines. They were -1 favs last year, vs the Colts, their only game as chalk ,  and that game flew over the total with 59 combined points going on the scoreboard. Despite of my initial observations I did concede that they have improved since last season, and the offence when given enough time should jell behind some improved parts and if they don't shoot themselves in the foot should have a chance to cover here tonight. However with this being the bad news/luck Browns Ill sit and wait this one on out for a side perspective. With that said, I am betting the Browns score in excess of 24 points here tonight while the Jets a team that scored 48 points in their opener should be good for around 21 points based on my varied power rankings in this spot. It must be noted that the L/6 times the Jets saw a less than 41 point total posted in their road games , that they have stayed  OVER each time. 

NFL non-division home chalk like the Browns in Thursday night NFL tilts have  gone OVER  11 of the L/12 times  when the Total is in the range of 39 to 50 points.

NFL Game Threes are 32-9-1 OVER since 2012 when the  Total is listed at less than 41 points and have Gove OVER 18 of the L/22 times when the home team is favoured. 

NFL team against the total (CLEVELAND) - off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the first half of the season are 31-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate on the blind.

NFL Road teams against the total (NY JETS) - off a loss against a division rival, in the first half of the season are 45-17 OVERL/5 seasons  for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the  OVER 

Tulsa under HC Philip Montgomery has proven himself over rated, and he can't motivate his team to be consistent as was the case last week when they were upset at home by Arkansas State. The offence is not very efficient anymore and the defence, has proven insufficient more often then not. Against a hard working side like Temple that is off a big win vs Maryland last week, their in trouble. The Owls prevailed 43-22 in Tulsa to close the 2017 regular season and matchup well vs the visitors.

TEMPLE is 12-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.

TEMPLE is 14-3 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

TEMPLE is 8-0 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons.

TEMPLE is 15-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Temple to cover