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PREMIUM PICK STREAKS
Basketball Totals (+11360) 1638-1389 L3027 54%
NBA Picks (+9068) 2202-1938 L4140 53%
NCAA-B Totals (+3668) 528-446 L974 54%
NHL Money Lines (+3561) 160-114 L274 58%
All Sports Totals (+2011) 1002-890 L1892 53%
MLB Money Lines (+1424) 1228-1162 L2390 51%
NFLX Sides (+1196) 25-12 L37 68%
NFL Totals (+472) 7-2 L9 78%
NCAA-F Totals (+447) 179-159 L338 53%
Soccer Picks (+439) 21-14 L35 60%
Fighting Picks (+276) 8-7 L15 53%
Football Totals (+232) 9-6 L15 60%
WNBA Picks (+100) 1-0 L1 100%
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This subscription includes EVERY NFL PREMIUM PICK I release through the Super Bowl! Join now and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 5 NFL picks but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox vs Yankees | UNDER 6 +100 | Premium | 0-9 | Loss | -100 | Show |
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Xfinity Mobile on opening night is supposed to be a Broad Street track meet. The board hung 6 to 6.5 like somebody remembered the 7–6 and 7–3 tapes from two winters ago and forgot April. April is the page that is still warm. The last meeting in this building was April 29: Flyers 1, Penguins 0 in overtime. Combined one. The game before that here was 4–2 Pittsburgh. The one before that was 5–2 Philadelphia. Then you flip back two more at PPG and you get 0–3 and 2–3. That is not a 6.5 sport. That is a grind with a rivalry logo on it.
Hockey-Reference and the last-ten sheet put 52 goals on ten meetings, 27–25 Pittsburgh. That is 5.2 a night. Last ten in order: 3–2, 5–1, 6–3, 4–3 shootout, 3–2, 0–3, 5–2, 4–2, 3–2, 1–0 overtime. Six of those ten finished 5 or fewer. Four of the last five decided by two or less. The house opening 6.5 is selling you December 23, 2024, when it went 7–3 in Pittsburgh. Different building. Different season. Different number.
The creases match the under. Arturs Silovs is the Penguins start. He was in for the 1–0, the 3–2, and the 4–2 to close last spring against this club. Dan Vladar is the Flyers posted start, with Joseph Woll behind him and a home date Thursday in Newark hanging over the second night. Opening-night rust plus a goalie who already stole a 1–0 in this building is how 6.5 gets honest.
Line combinations tell you the style. Penguins, Rust out: Robertson–Crosby–Rakell, Chinakhov–Novak–Malkin, Hallander–Lapierre–Koivunen, Dewar–Lizotte–Soderblom. Carlile–Karlsson, van Riemsdyk–Letang, Girard–Korczak. That is still a Crosby-Malkin club that can pile if the power play wakes up. It is also a club that just spent a first-round series living in the 2s and 3s against these same sweaters. Flyers: Tippett–Zegras–Martone, Bump–Cates–Michkov, Foerster–Dvorak–Konecny, Grundstrom–Couturier–Acciari. Sanheim–Ristolainen, York–Drysdale, Seeler–Benoit. Tocchet hockey. Heavy. Cycle. Bottom six that wants the wall, not a 4–3 track meet on TNT.
Public will smash the over because it is the Battle of Pennsylvania, Crosby is in the building, and somebody still has 7–6 bookmarked. That is how 6.5 gets to the window looking like a gift. The last game here was 1–0. The last ten average 5.2. That is why the under is the ticket.
You are not fading Crosby to disappear. You are fading 4–3 turning into 5–4 on a number the recent series already rejected. 3–2 cashes. 2–1 cashes. 1–0 is the gift. Shop 6 if you can get it.
Bet under the total in Penguins–Flyers games posted 6 to 6.5. Last 10 meetings averaged 5.2 goals. Six of ten finished 5 or fewer. Last game in this building: 1–0 OT. (+4.0 unit$, ROI=36.4%)
Bet the under in Philadelphia when the previous meeting here finished 1 or 3 goals. April 29 was 1–0. April 25 was 4–2. The 1-goal night is still on the book. (+1.5 unit$, ROI=27.3%)
Bet under 6.5 on opening-night Metropolitan games with a rivalry attached. Short card. New lines. First 60 minutes. The April series already played this look. (+2.2 unit$, ROI=20.0%)
Play: Under 6 (Under 6.5 if that is the number).
Our Review of Betting Handicapper Alex Smart
For three decades, Alex has professionally engaged in sports and horse racing betting. His selections have been meticulously documented over the past 22 years. In 2009, he was honored as the NFL Handicapper of the Year at a renowned event and clinched the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. Additionally, he has secured the title of NBA World Champion in 9 out of the last 11 seasons. On an annual basis, Alex consistently outperforms the College Hoops bookmakers with a strategic high-volume approach.
This Guru’s Sports Handicapping Approach
Alex possesses unwavering confidence in his methodologies. There isn’t a sport he believes he can’t master. Smart’s handicapping strategy is best described as “The Smart Money Approach.” He is thorough in his research, leveraging a vast database of information and statistics. Factors such as injuries, current and historical trends, form, weather, surface conditions, and line movement are all integral to his decision-making process.
Perspective on Sports Betting as an Investment
Many draw parallels between the unpredictability in sports betting and the stock market, attributing streaks of performance to mere chance. However, both realms present significant variables that, when understood, can offer an investor an edge. With diligent research and a comprehensive understanding of the facts, long-term profitability is achievable.
In his view, sports betting offers an edge over traditional stock markets. In sports betting, the investor retains greater control over their funds, with the flexibility to take breaks without fearing unforeseen losses. Conversely, traditional markets expose investments like 401Ks to the whims of a volatile marketplace, often accompanied by exorbitant broker fees. While profiting consistently from sports betting is challenging, those who succeed often enjoy returns surpassing those of market investors. This philosophy underpins every wager he places, and he approaches his portfolio with utmost seriousness.
Money Management for Gamblers to Follow
Achieving success in sports betting requires a long-term vision. Before embarking on this journey, it’s crucial to establish a robust bankroll. Conservative bettors might allocate 1-2% of their bankroll per game, reserving up to 3% for the most promising bets. While this may seem modest, it ensures sustainability in the unpredictable world of sports betting.
Here are some guidelines he advocates for:
- Seek the most favorable betting lines from trustworthy sources.
- Maintain discipline; avoid deviating from the advised bankroll allocation for individual bets. Chasing losses is counterproductive.
- Recognize that your bankroll is vital. Treat it with the same care as funds allocated for a business venture.
- Consider buying off the hook on pivotal numbers.
- Grasp the significance and technique of middling.
- Maintain a detailed record of all bets and outcomes, incorporating them into your overarching statistical database.
In your pursuit of long-term gains, these factors are pivotal. As the late Jimmy the Greek wisely noted, “The house doesn’t beat the player; it merely provides him the chance to defeat himself.”
