Alex Smart Free Picks & Sports Handicapper Review

Greinke, whose road ERA is 4.31 in nine starts, looks susceptible to being lit up here today, vs a Atlanta team that has proven itself dangerous this season offensively. 

The Diamondbacks have lost  19 straight when their line is within 20 cents of pickem off a game as a dog when their opponent's starter has a strikeout-per-walk ratio less than 1.97 on the season and it is not a series opener , which NewCombe the Braves starterhas. 

Diamondbacks are 6-14 in their last 20 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Diamondbacks are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.Diamondbacks are 8-22 in their last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.Diamondbacks are 5-14 in their last 19 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Diamondbacks are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a winDiamondbacks are 7-16 in the last 23 meetings in Atlanta.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win on the moneyline 

KYLE HENDRICKS (R) vs. LUIS PERDOMO (R)

Padres starter Perdomo's will make his  third start since he returned from Triple-A El Paso on July 4. He is 0-1 in his first two outings back, allowing eight runs on 14 hits and seven walks with three strikeouts over 12 2/3 innings and could easily get lit up by the Cubs batting order here today.PERDOMO is 10-1 OVER  in home games after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.6 rpg going on the scoreboard. 

Meanwhile, Cubs starting hurler  Hendricks is 1-2 with a 5.20 ERA during the past month and has given up 17 runs (16 earned) on 30 hits and 12 walks in 27 2/3 innings.I expect the Padres 9 will also do some damage here and will help to contribute to this total being eclipsed. 

SAN DIEGO is 10-0 OVER in home games after a one run loss over the last 2 seasons, (which happened yesterday ) with a combined average of 10.5 rpg scored. 

CHICAGO CUBS are 21-9 OVER vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 10.3 rpg scored.

MLB Home teams (SAN DIEGO) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less ) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less ), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  of 7.00 or worse over his last 3 starts are 64-35 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

The Cubs have gone OVER the Total 7 straight times as a road 160-plus favorite off a game as a favorite that was tied at the end of the sixth inning. The average final score  averaged out to 12.28 rpg.

Play OVER 

The White Sox  are well prepared for their third straight win as they send Reynaldo Lopez (4-6, 3.77 ERA)  to the hill . The hurler  will be looking for his third victory in his past four outings. The 24-year-old right-hander had won back-to-back starts before he allowed three runs and six hits in just 4 2/3 innings last week against the Houston Astros. I'll forgive that effort vs a side that could easily be World Series Champs this season. Lopez is 2-0 with a 3.28 ERA in four career starts against the Royals and gets my support in this spot.

Meanwhile, the Royals starter DUFFY is 4-15  against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

KANSAS CITY is 7-25  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

RENTERIA is 31-18 against the money line in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season in all games he has managed since 1997.

Play on the Chicago White Sox to win on the moneyline 

The Cards looked completely asleep at the wheel yesterday losing by a 9-1 count, and that does not bode well for them here this afternoon. The Cardinals  have lost 14 of their last 23 home games and are far from solid favs as a host.  Im betting things don't get much better,  with Cards rookie right-hander Jack Flaherty (3-4, 3.34)  on the hill to face the surging Reds (42-52), who have won 20 of their last 29 games . .Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

Reds Manager RIGGLEMAN is 10-3  against the money line in road games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities  .

 The Cardinals has lost 5 straight  as a 130-plus home favorite after a game in which they had more strikeouts than hits.The Cincinnati Reds has won 6 straight  as a moneyline dog after a game in which they scored in at least three innings and hit multiple home runs.  Every win was by 2 or more  runs. 

ST LOUIS is 15-20 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ST LOUIS) - off a loss by 8 runs or more to a division rival, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.100 or less over his last 10 games are just 16-26 L/21 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win on the moneyline 

ZACK GREINKE (R) vs. SEAN NEWCOMB (L)

Newcomb (8-4, 3.44 ERA)  Is struggling of late as is evident by going a  combined 6 1/3 innings and giving up 10 runs in his last two trips to the hill. I'm betting the Backs bats don't let him off easily and accumulate some runs here that will help get us over the total. Meanwhile, Zack Greinke (9-5, 3.39 ERA) comes into the start with momentum, having won six of his past seven , but has still not been his usual dominant self despite of getting all star allocation this season. I expect the Braves a team that have averaged 4.9 rpg this season do also do some damage with this total getting eclipsed. 

 ATLANTA is 10-2 OVER  revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite this season with a combined average of 10.2 rpg scored. (Arizona beat the Braves yesterday 2-1)

MLB teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (ARIZONA) - with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season (NL) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP 2.000 or less  over his last 3 starts are 42-20 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

The Diamondbacks have gone OVER 11 straight times  when their line is within 20 cents of pickem off a road game in which they scored 3 runs or fewer and won with a combined average of 10.28 rpg scored, with no game failing to reach the 8 point totals plateau. 

Play OVER 

Heaney (5-6, 3.84) has been one of the rare Angels pitchers to avoid injury. He is one of three Angels starters to make at least 16 starts. He has proved resilient but has not been fortunate enough to garner more wins than losses, and I'm betting he will be on the wrong side of W/L her/his Saturday evening. Note: Heaney yielded three runs over seven innings in his last start against the Dodgers on Sunday. He is 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA in three career starts against the Dodgers. HEANEY is 1-10  against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Angels are 0-6 in Heaneys last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Meanwhile, Wood enters the rematch hoping to pick up a winning decision after not factoring in the decision vs. the Angels on Sunday. The lefty has tossed six-plus innings in each of his past four starts, a stretch during which he’s 3-0 with a 2.88 ERA. He gets my support here tonight. 

Dodgers are 17-4 in their last 21 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.

LA ANGELS are 8-17  against the money line against left-handed starters this season.

Angels are 2-12 in their last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

Angels are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings in Los Angeles.

Angels are 1-10 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.LA ANGELS are 10-25  against the money line after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better over the last 2 seasons.  Manager ROBERTS of LAD  is 54-18 against the money line in home games after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games . 

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the moneyline 

The Wings are averaging 87.3 points per game, and their opponents the Storm  average 87 ppg. However, both these coaches preach a defence first system, and that I'm betting will be at the forefront of this contest as both know how explosive each others offences are. With that said, I'm expecting a lower scoring tilt then the line offered. 

Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Seattle.Under is 5-1 in Storm last 6 home games.

SEATTLE is 8-1 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 153.4 ppg going on the board. SEATTLE is 20-7 UNDER versus teams who make 5 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 159.2 ppg scored.

WNBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 (SEATTLE) - excellent free throw shooting team (80% or less ) against a good free throw shooting team (76-80%), hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 42% or more of their shots are 34-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 (DALLAS) - after a road game where both teams score 75 or more points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record after 15 or more games are 31-9 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

With Jonathon Jennings struggling, the Lions have promoted veteran Travis Lulay to the No. 1 spot for Saturday’s home game against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. I'm betting he will be worth one more score and that that this combined total score will be eclipsed. The Lions are going to need it , as they are allowing  more than 30 ppg, and were clobbered 41-19 last week vs these same Bombers. Meanwhile, Winnipeg has a great deal of depth on offence, and it is their strength and I'm betting they will do some damage today as well, as teams have a hard time preparing for the different talented options. Winnipeg has averaged 36 ppg this season, and I won't be surprised, if they come close to equaling those numbers here. These teams have gone OVER in their L/3 meetings in BC overall, with the Lions scoring 35,31,42 points in closely contested back and forth battles, that also saw 67,63, and 87 combined  points going on the board. 

Over is 4-0 in Blue Bombers last 4 games in July.Over is 13-4 in Blue Bombers last 17 road games.Over is 18-7-2 in Blue Bombers last 27 vs. West.Over is 5-2 in Blue Bombers last 7 games overall.Over is 15-6 in Blue Bombers last 21 games following a ATS win.Over is 4-0 in Lions last 4 games in July.Over is 4-0 in Lions last 4 vs. West.Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 games overall.Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 games following a straight up loss.Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 games following a ATS loss.Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 Saturday games.

WINNIPEG is 15-6 OVER in road games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 58.3 ppg scored. O'Shea is 12-4 OVER off a home win as the coach of WINNIPEG with combined average of 60.1 ppg going on the board.

WINNIPEG is 21-8 OVER versus excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 58 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Play on the OVER