ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicappers

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -8 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8pm ET - It’s not the best scheduling situation for the Heat who are coming off a game last night while the Kings are rested, but Miami has lost two games in a row which should have them focused here. This bet is just as much a play against the Kings as it is a play on the Heat. Sacramento has not played well this season and are likely on the verge of blowing this roster up and starting over. The Kings have lost 4 straight, 2 of which came against Memphis and Utah, two below average teams. Sacto is the 3rd worst offensive efficiency team in the league and 5th worst defensively. They have an efficiency differential of minus -11.2. The Heat were in Orlando last night and lost a close game to the Magic. They didn’t have Tyler Herro for that game, but he’s expected back here. Miami ranks 13th in oEFF averaging 1.163-points per possession. The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the league (3rd) with a defensive efficiency rating of 1.119 points per possession allowed. When playing on the road this season the Kings have a negative point differential of minus -11.6ppg. Miami has an average plus/minus at home of +6.9ppg. Miami is 6-2 ATS when coming off a loss and should get a double digit win here.

#706 ASA PLAY ON UW Milwaukee -4.5 over Robert Morris, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Milwaukee is in must win mode here at home after losing 4 of their last 5 games. Nothing to be ashamed of for the Panthers as they were double digit underdogs in all 4 of those losses, all were on the road, and all were vs top 100 teams (Indiana, Texas Tech, Wichita State, and Akron). You might assume based on those opponents that UWM has played one of the tougher schedules in the country and you’d be correct (32nd strength of schedule). The Panthers are 3-5 on the season and all 3 wins have come at home with all 5 losses coming on the road. Robert Morris could be gassed here after playing @ UWGB on Thursday night and completing a huge come back to win 80-78 on a layup as time expired. Green Bay led that game by 11 points with 2:35 remaining and blew it. Robert Morris is 7-3 on the season but they are just 2-3 in road games and really should probably be 1-4 if it weren’t for their unlikely win @ UWGB 48 hours ago. The Colonials are poor at a few things that make it tough to win on the road. They turn the ball over a lot (292nd in the country), they foul a lot (28% of opponents points come from the FT line – 6th most in the nation), and they don’t get to the FT line themselves (only 12% of their points come from the stripe – 4th least in the country). This is a double revenger for UWM who lost both games last year vs Robert Morris, including a 2 point loss here at home as a 9.5 point favorite. Now we’re getting the Panthers at a much cheaper price, they’ve had a full week off, while Robert Morris played on the road 48 hours ago. Lay it with Milwaukee.

#654 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State -2.5 over Seton Hall, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We expect a huge effort from KSU off a bad home loss vs Bowling Green on Monday. The Wildcats lost that game 82-66 as a 12 point favorite and while the Falcons are solid (110th per KenPom) it was still a game KSU expected to win. They may have been gassed after back to back losses away from home vs Indiana and Nebraska (both top 50 teams). They shout 39% overall, 26% from 3 and just 55% from the FT line in that loss to BG, all well below their season averages which are 49%, 41%, and 75% respectively. KSU sits with a 5-3 record and they’ve played a very tough slate (68th SOS) including 5 top 100 teams. Seton Hall, on the other hand, has a better record (8-1) but they’ve faced the 351st most difficult schedule and this will be their first true road game. Despite the much tougher schedule, Kansas State has shot the ball much better than Seton Hall this season including ranking 10th nationally from beyond the arc at 41%. That could be bad news for a Pirate D that has allowed opponents to make of their triples (249th). Points from deep could be the difference in this game with KSU scoring 35% of their points from 3 point land (85th in the country) while Seton Hall gets only 25% of their points from 3 (302nd). KSU has won 17 of their last 22 home games while the Pirates were 0-11 in true road games last season. Let’s lay it with Kansas State in a must win home situation.

#622 ASA FREE PLAY ON Northwestern -2.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - The Cats are off a poor performance vs Wisconsin and we expect a nice bounce back game for them at home on Saturday. Their 85-73 loss @ Wisconsin was worse than the final with the Badgers leading by 23 points at half and putting up 55 points. NW allowed 1.23 PPP and head coach Chris Collins lit into his team’s effort at halftime. They responded by outscoring the Badgers 11 points in the 2nd half and we think that “momentum” and effort carries into this home game. Prior to that they had 2 tight losses to Virginia and vs Oklahoma State both by 5 points (UVA ranked 24th per KenPom & Okie State 50th). Both of those losses were at neutral sites. The Wildcats are 3-0 at home but haven’t played a home game since November 10th. They have been tough to beat at home with a 29-7 SU record since the start of the 2023 season including a number of wins over ranked teams. OSU is 6-1 but overvalued right now. They’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country (359th SOS) and they’ve played only 1 road game this season. That was a loss at Pitt who KenPom has ranked 100th with a current 5-4 record. The Buckeyes lost at Pitt despite having a +9 points advantage from beyond the arc + points from the FT line. OSU’s only game vs a top 100 team this season was a 64-63 win at home vs Notre Dame who currently ranks 15 spots below this Northwestern team per KenPom. The Bucks have very good looking offensive numbers, however they’ve faced 5 teams (out of 7 games) vs teams that rank 270th or lower in defensive efficiency including 3 that rank 300 or lower. The 2 decent defenses they’ve faced, Pitt and ND, they scored 64 and 66 points. The Cats D ranks in the top 60 in both defensive FG% and 3 point FG% allowed. NW has won 3 straight in this series and we like them to get another win on Saturday.

#115 ASA PLAY ON Georgia -2.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This game is being played at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. That’s a big advantage for UGA who plays there nearly every year and just played here last week vs Georgia Tech. The Dawgs didn’t play well in that game and seemed a bit disinterested to be honest, but still came away with a 16-9 win. They won’t be disinterested here. They are facing a Bama team that gave them their only loss in SEC play. UGA was favored by -2.5 @ Alabama in that game and now laying the same in a “neutral” site which actually should favor the Bulldogs being only 70 miles from their campus. In that 24-21 loss to the Crimson Tide, the Bulldogs were outgained by 40 yards but also ran 24 more offensive snaps so the YPP numbers were heavily in favor of Georgia (6.7 PPP to 5.1 YPP). The Bulldogs also controlled the trenches rushing for 227 yards on 6.9 YPC compared to 117 yards on 3.1 YPC for Bama. The Tide are coming off their rivalry game with Auburn and pulled off a 27-20 win despite getting outgained 411 to 281 in the game. Alabama was actually outgained in 4 of their 6 SEC wins this season. On the ground, the Crimson Tide were outgained on a YPC basis in 7 of their 8 conference games. That leads us to what we think is the key in this game and that is UGA controlling the line of scrimmage. On the season they had a +1.5 YPC differential while Alabama was -0.1 in that category. UGA lost vs Alabama 27-24 in this game last year despite outgaining the Tide. In this double revenge spot, we’ll take Georgia to win and cover this one.

#112 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -12.5 over BYU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Big 12 Championship game is being played in Dallas so this should be a Tech home crowd. BYU needs to win this game to get Into the Playoffs while Tech needs a big win to make sure they sit in the top 4 giving them a bye. A win here probably does that for the Red Raiders while a big win could move them up in the seeding. These 2 met @ Tech this year (we were on the Red Raiders) and they dominated BYU 29-7. It could have been much worse as the Raiders pushed inside the BYU 25 yard line a whopping 8 times, scored 2 TD’s, kicked 5 FG’s, and were shut out on downs at the 2 yard line. Texas Tech’s only loss this season came by 4 points @ Arizona State and the Raiders played without their starting QB in that game and led that game by 3 with under 40 seconds remaining in the game. A late TD by ASU gave them the win. Since that loss, TT has outscored their last 211 to 36 for an average score of 42-7. They are in the top 3 in the nation in both scoring (43 PPG) and defensive points allowed (11 PPG). They sit in the top 7 in total offense and total defense. They have huge statistical edges compared to BYU with a point differential of +32 PPG (+17 PPG for BYU), +230 YPG (+90 YPG for BYU), and +2.5 YPP (+1.0 YPP for BYU). They continue to be undervalued covering 10 of their 12 games this season and Tech is not talked about enough. This team is good enough to win the National Championship. We’ll call for at least a 2 TD win on Saturday.