ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicappers

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -8.5 vs LA Clippers 3 PM ET - The Clippers made a few big deals at the trade deadline when they shipped two starting veterans in Zubac and Harden to Indiana and Cleveland. They brought in some youth with Garland, Mathurin and Jackson but those three are not expected to play here. The Clippers are 1-2 SU in their last three games after going on a torrid streak with Harden/Zubac on their roster. We expect a regression in their game in the short term as the new starters will need to acclimate to the new scheme in L.A. Clearly the oddsmakers are suggesting the same as they set this line higher than normal. They are baiting us into betting on the Clippers and we won’t fall for the trap. The Wolves are coming off a disappointing loss to the Pelicans at home and should bounce back in this one. Minnesota is 5-2 SU in their last seven games and have been solid at home this season with a 17-9 SU record. The Wolves have won 5 straight against the Clippers and should enjoy an advantage from beyond the arc in this one. Minnesota is the 4th best 3PT shooting team in the NBA and the Clippers rank 25th in 3PT% defense. That will be the difference in this one and gets the Wolves a double-digit home win.

English Premier League #200117/200118 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-114) – Manchester City at Liverpool, Sunday at 11:30 am et - Liverpool's last 4 matches include 2 in Premier League and 2 in Champions League and the Reds have scored multiple goals in all 4 and have averaged 3.8 goals a game in this stretch!  Manchester City has scored multiple goals in 6 of the last 8 and this includes FA Cup and EFL Cup action in addition to Champions League and Premier League.  Liverpool is favored here at home and looking for revenge for a 3-0 loss in these clubs first meeting this season.  The winning club has scored multiple goals in each of the last 3 meetings and we also can't foresee either club being shut out here with consideration to their recent success in front of goal.  That sets this one up nicely for a back and forth battle we see getting into a range of 2-2 or 3-2 and our computer math model shows good probability of an outcome in this range.  Over gets the call in this one!

#861 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +13 over Iowa, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We’re getting some really solid line value with NW in this game. It’s an overreaction to their 40 point loss @ Illinois, a game that had a Shot Quality score of 78-65 in favor of the Illini. So the final was not indicative of how the game should have played out. Illinois was favored by 15 at home in that game and now Iowa is laying 13? So on a neutral court Illinois would be a 2 point favorite over Iowa? Yeah that wouldn’t be the number in fact our power rating have Illinois as a 7.5 point favorite in that situation. Anyway you get the point. Iowa is on the other end of the spectrum as of late. They are coming off and 18 and 10 point win vs Oregon & Washington and the SQ scores in those games had the Hawkeyes winning by 6 and 5 respectively. All that together is giving us value on the Wildcats in this one. The Hawks have 1 home win by more than 13 points in Big 10 play and that was vs Maryland, the 2nd lowest rated team in the conference. They only have 2 Big 10 wins by more than 13 in their 11 games played. NW has been fairly competitive on the Big 10 road minus their game @ Illinois. They beat USC, lost @ UCLA by 7, lost @ MSU by 10 and lost @ Wisconsin by 12. Iowa thrives on creating turnovers for extra possessions but that won’t work here vs the Cats who are #1 in the country in offensive turnover percentage. They don’t give games away. NW scores the majority of their points inside the arc (36th in percentage of points from 2 point land) and that’s Iowa’s weakness ranking 15th in the Big 10 defending inside the 3 point line. Neither team is a great rebounding team so no advantage there. Only 63 possessions expected in this game per KenPom will make it tough for Iowa to win by a large margin. NW has actually won 2 of the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams and the Hawkeyes 2 wins were by 1 and 7 points. We expect Northwestern to come out with a chip on their shoulder in this one after their embarrassing loss earlier this week. Let’s take the generous points.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Hawaii -7 over UC San Diego, Saturday at 11:59 PM ET - We were on UC San Diego when these two met back in early January and picked up a solid win. We’re flipping the script here and grabbing Hawaii at home as things have changed quite drastically since that game. Since that win, UCSD simply hasn’t played well. They have a record of 4-5 SU (2-7 ATS) since beating Hawaii at home and 3 of their 4 wins have come vs 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the Big West (per KenPom). The Tritons have actually lost 4 games outright as a favorite since their win over Hawaii. They nearly lost another game as a favorite on Thursday night when they played host to Long Beach State who has a record of 8-16 on the season. UCSD won that game by 3 points but only led for 32% of the game and LBSU played without their leading scorer Sykes who averages 18 PPG. The Rainbows sit in 2nd place in the Big West 1 game behind UC Irvine, who they beat at home and lost in OT on the road. They are 13-1 SU at home this season with their only loss coming vs Arizona State. They are also in the much better situational spot here as the Rainbows have had a full week off since winning @ Long Beach State last Saturday while UCSD played on Thursday night then had to make the long trip to the islands to play just 48 hours later. Narrowing the stats down to conference games only, Hawaii ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive efficiency. They have a points per possession margin of +13 per 100 possessions and UC San Diego has a negative PPP margin per 100 possessions. The one thing that can cause Hawaii’s offense issues are defensive teams that create a high percentage of turnovers. The Tritons are not that team as they rank dead last in the Big West at creating turnovers. UCSD doesn’t get to the FT line very often and relies heavily on making 3 pointers which will be an issue here vs a UH defense that ranks 3rd in the nation allowing just 27% shooting from beyond the arc. Hawaii has been waiting for this rematch and they are rested and ready to go. Rainbows by double digits.

#109/110 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - 2 high level defensive teams and 2 offenses that love to run the ball could make for a “shortened” Super Bowl. Seattle’s defense has allowed 33 total points in the playoffs (2 games) and New England allowed 26 total points (3 games). The Seahawks are 4th in YPP allowed, 4th in defensive success rate, 2nd in yards per pass attempt and 1st in yards per rush attempt. They’ve allowed a TD on just 15% of opponent’s possessions (1st in the NFL). They’ll be facing a Patriot offense that has hit a wall in the playoffs. They are averaging just 18 PPG in their 3 post season games, mainly because they final played some defenses with a pulse. In fact, the 3 best defenses the Pats have faced this season were their 3 playoff games vs the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos. Seattle is absolutely on the same level as those 3 and arguably the best defense New England will have faced (Seahawks defense is #1 DVOA). During the regular season, the average defense the Patriots faced was ranked 19th in total D. They were averaging 2.40 points per drive during the regular season and that has dropped to 1.24 points per drive which is actually 12th out of the 14 playoff teams (in playoff games). The Pats offensive line has been atrocious in the playoffs giving up 15 sacks in their 3 games. It won’t get any easier here as QB Maye has a bad shoulder and Seattle’s defense who ranks top 10 in sacks per game. Don’t be surprised of they lean heavily on their running game which they’ve done all season (5th in rush percentage). Seattle’s offense loves to run as well ranking 2nd in rush percentage so we look for a lot of ground game here which eats clock and shortens the game. The Seahawk offense has only faced 3 top 10 defenses since week 8, two of those were vs the Rams who although ranked in the top 10 defensive, they were nowhere near that level down the stretch. The other top D they faced was Minnesota who held Seattle to just 3.5 YPP (lowest of the season for Seattle) and 19 offensive points. They won’t go crazy on a New England defense that ranks 7th in YPP allowed and has given up just 1.40 points per drive this season (3rd in the NFL). Lastly, these 2 offenses are among the slowest paced in the NFL ranking 28th and 29th in seconds per play. We’ll grab the Under.