Ben Burns Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

Canucks are offering very fair value as home underdogs here. Yes, the Oilers have won four in a row. They're a money-burning 74-95 (-32.4) over the years, when off three or more consecutive victories though. That includes a 5-10 (-5.6) mark their last 15 in that situation. Off three straight close losses, the most recent to these same Oilers, the Canucks are going to be extremely motivated. This is the final leg of a 4-game homestand for Vancouver, which adds to the desperation. The Canucks are a perfect 5-0 the past five times that they played their previous three at home, 26-14 (+15.9) their last 40 in that situation. Don't be surprised when they score the minor upset this evening. Consider Vancouver. 

I'm playing on MONTREAL. The Habs lost 5-4 on Tuesday. It marked their third staight loss and their fifth loss in their last six. Needless to say, they're going to be extremely hungry. Note that they're 6-2 their last eight, after scoring four or more goals. The Jets haven't played since a 4-3 win on 2/21. Not only are they 2-6 (-5.4) after scoring four or more goals, they're also 0-3 when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Going back further finds them at just 4-10 (-7.1) the past 14 times that they played with at least three day's rest in between games. Look for the Habs to draw first blood in the first of this 2-game set. 

I'm playing on CAL. Both these teams will be viewing this game as a chance at a rare conference victory. Playing at home and looking to avenge an earlier road loss, I expect the Bears to be the team which rises to the occasion and gets it. Note that the Bears are 6-3 ATS their last nine in the revenge role. Cal is also 5-2 ATS the past seven times it was a home underdog of three or less, all five wins came outright. During that span, the Beavers were 0-2 ATS (and SU) as road favorites of three or less. The Bears have outscored visiting teams by a 68.4 to 67 margin here. Not great but much better than being outscored by an average of 68.3 to 61, which is the case for the Beavers, when on the road. The Bears eked out a close one the last time these teams met here and they've won 18 of the past 21 as the home team in this series. Payback time. 

I'm playing on Dallas/Florida OVER the total. These teams have played b2b low-sccoring games against each other but I expect the offense to come to life this evening. The Stars won last night which puts the Panthers in the revenge role. Excluding pushes, the OVER is a profitable 49-31 the past 80 times that the Panthers attempted to avenge an earlier loss. During that span, the OVER is also 15-9 when the Panthers scored one goal or less in their previous game. Remember, it was less than two weeks ago that Florida scored 17 goals in three games. This one finishes above the low number. 

I'm playing on DENVER. I really like how this one sets up for the home team. The Wizards are at the end of a Western Conf. road trip. They're already looking forward to getting home. The Nuggets, on the other hand, take to the road after this game. They're going to be anxious to to pick up a victory before they go. Additional motivation stems from the fact that the Wizards upset them, at Washington, earlier. The Nuggets are 53-33 SU and 47-37-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, in the revenge role. In terms of line value, consider that Denver was favored by eight points, at Washington, just over a week ago. The Nuggets also lost at Washington last season. However, the game here at Denver saw them win by 13. I say the Nuggets pull away for another double-digit win on Thursday. 

I'm playing on EASTERN MICHIGAN. I don't believe that the gap between these teams is nearly as big as the pointspread indicates. While they've been on a slide recently, the Eagles are still a veteran team with a number of seniors. They lead the MAC in steals per game (9.2) and also in turnovers forced (16.1) per game. They rank second in the conference, with a +3.1 turnover margin. A closer look shows that they rank eighth in the entire country in steals.They're essentially the same team that played Ohio tough in both last season's games. Those had scores of 60-58 and 74-68. In fact, each of the past six meetings between these teams has been decided by single-digits. The most lopsided of those six games was a 9-point game. However, Eastern Michigan won that one. The Eagles have actually won two of their past three here and the road team is 5-1 ATS the past six meetings. Grab the points and look for this one to be much closer than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on COLUMBUS. These teams faced each other on Tuesday and the Jackets ended up on the wrong side of a wild 6-5 shootout. With a chance to get some immediate payback, I expect them to bounce back with a huge effort Thursday. Note that Columbus is 5-1 the past six times it had allowed five or more goals in its previous game. As for Chicago, the Hawks are a dismal 4-26 the past 30 times that they faced an opponent which scored five or more in its previous game. All that aside, the Hawks are dealing with a number of key injuries right now. Expect it to catch up with them here, as the Blue Jackets respond with an important victory.