Ben Burns Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

I'm playing BUFFALO on the puck-line (+1.5 goals) Both teams are going to be hungry for this one. The Sabres will be desperate to snap their losing skid. The Canes, meanwhile, will be motivated to avoid another loss, since they just snapped their losing streak. I see that leading to a close game, making that extra +1.5 goals very attractive. Keep in mind that Carolina's last two games were against Ottawa, one of the weakest teams in the league. By comparison, the Sabres' last two games have both come against Tampa, one of the top teams in the league. In fact, the Sabres' last five games have all come against teams well above .500. Three of those were decided by a single goal. The Canes' last two visits here were also decided by a single goal. Expect AT LEAST a "puck-line cover" from the desperate home team tonight. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Great start for the Coyotes. Not so much for the Wild. Those results have helped give us the Wild for a much better price than we'd normally have. Consider that the Wild were -210 the last time the teams met here. In fact, they were even -140 for the last meeting at Phoenix. Granted, these Coyotes are indeed improved. Off b2b road wins over the past two defending champs, however, I feel that they're going to be in letdown mode tonight. Part of the reason for Minnesota's slow start is that they've played a lot more games on the road. They're 3-10 in away games but 3-2 (3-1-1) here at Minnesota. Back home and hungry for a victory, I say the Wild get it done. 

I'm playing on LA. While the Wings come in on a roll, I expect home ice to prove the difference tonight. The Wings are 3-7 on the road, outscored by a whopping 41-22 margin. That includes a 1-7 mark when playing a road game with an O/U line of six or greater. By comparison, the Kings 4-4 home record looks pretty good. The Kings have taken each of the last two meetings here at LA (and three of four against the Wings overall) and they were laying -200 and -235 for those games. Needless to say, we're getting them at a far more reasonable price here. Expect the Kings to take this one, moving to 77-60 over the years, when playing a home game with an O/U line of six or greater. 

I'm playing on Dallas/NY OVER the total. I won with the Knicks 'over' in their last game. That was played at a fast tempo and I'm expecting another relatively high-scoring affair here. The Mavs have hit triple-digits in every game this season. They'll be looking for payback as the Knicks recently upset them at Dallas. While that game did stay below the total, the Mavs' five road games have averaged a whopping 235.6 points, much higher than their home games. Not surprisingly, four of them finished above the number. The Knicks are working Dennis Smith back in the lineup. He struggled on both ends of the floor in the loss to the Bulls. The former Maverick should get his offense going against his old team tonight though and he'll be looking to push the pace. However, he's still likely going to be a step slow defensively. Look for the OVER to improve to 5-1 when the Mavs face a team with a losing record. 

I'm playing on VANCOUVER. The Canucks got back on track with a much needed win in their last game, defeating a very good Nashville team. Tonight, they'll take on a hot Dallas team. With the schedule in their favor, I expect the Canucks to cool off the Stars. While Vancouver had yesterday off, Dallas checks in off a 3-1 win at Calgary. Note that even with last night's win, the Stars are still just 4-6 away from Dallas. The Canucks, meanwhile, are 5-3 here at Vancouver. The Canucks have taken four of the last five meetings. They've outscored teams by a 35-20 margin here. Expect them to take care of business once again. 

I'm playing on Cincinnati/Alabama A&M OVER the total. I actually won with the Bearcats 'under' in their last game. However, that was more a case of a line being generously high and even at the time, I noted that they were going to push the pace a lot more this year. Tonight, as a huge favorite, they'll have a chance to do exactly that. I expect them to put up a huge number. Through two games, Alabama A&M is allowing an average of 90 points. While the Bulldogs won't be able to keep up, coach Dylan Howard expects his new lineup to be much more efficent offensively this season. As per "Blue Ribbon," Howard commented: "We had to get better guys that can just score at multiple levels. We had to get guys that can finish at the rim, knock down the 3 with more consistency..." Bearcats put up a big number and Bulldogs provide enough help to get this one over the low total. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Both teams earned impressive close wins last week. The Steelers upset the Rams while the Browns, in Hunts' first game, eked out a win against the Bills. Playing at home with no travel on a short week, more desperate than their guests, I expect the Browns to be the team which follows it up. Needless to say, its been a very disappointing season for Browns' fans. This is still a highly talented team though, one picked by many to go deep into the playoffs. Even if it doesn't ultimately amount to them getting anywhere, a win against the Steelers on National Television will go a long way to ease the suffering of the faithful. Last year, they earned a tie in the game here. This year, Rothlisberger on the bench, the Browns take the next step and knock off the pesky Steelers, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Bulls hammered the Golden Flashes, at Buffalo, last season. Playing at home, I expect a much better effort from the Golden Flashes this year. While they've dropped three in a row, the Golden Flashes continue to play hard; they've covered three of four and four of six. Admittedly, the Bulls have looked impressive in beating up some bad teams lately. While they did have last week off but this still marks their second straight on the road, the first time they've played in that situation. Also, note that the Bulls are just 1-4 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off a win of 28 or more. Conversely, the Golden Flashes are 6-3 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b conf. losses, 3-1 ATS when off three straight conf. losses. While I like the Flashes' chances of an outright win, I'm grabbing the points.