Ben Burns Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

Mets

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Jays went big at the trade deadline, in acquiring Berrios. Yesterday's loss notwithstanding, the team is on a roll. Everyone is thrilled to be back in Toronto. That said, they can't afford to keep losing. FanGraphs is currently giving them a 31.5% chance of making the playoffs, the Wildcard being their far more likely pathway there. In other words, every game is critical. Certainly, they need to win this matchup, a home game with Ryu on the mound, facing a mediocre Cleveland team which knows it has nothing to play for. Ryu has a 1.56 ERA his past three starts. The Jays have won his last four starts by scores of 10-2, 5-0, 10-3 and 13-1. He should get plenty of support once again; Plesac has been taken deep in seven straight games and has a mediocre 4.59 ERA on the road. Jays bounce back. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Phillies won a wild one last night, a game they badly needed. They need to keep winning though, as the playoffs are far from certain. They did gain an important game on the Mets though and I expect them to carry the momentum into this evening's game. Wheeler has been outstanding all season. He's got a 2.45 ERA and 1.024 WHIP through 21 starts, averaging nearly seven innings every time he takes the mound. He'll be thrilled to face someone other than Scherzer. He's made three starts against Washington since June, including his most recent one. All three were h2h matchups against Scherzer. Wheeler allowed three or fewer earned runs each time but Scherzer was masterful and the Nats won by scores of 3-1, 3-2 and 2-1. Corbin isn't Scherzer. The Phillies just rocked him last start, taking him deep three times in five innings. He's 0-2 with a 8.05 ERA and 1.852 WHIP his past three starts and he's 6-9 with a 5.78 ERA on the season. Phillies roll. 

I'm playing on Cleveland/Toronto OVER the total. While games here at Toronto have been relatively low-scoring thus far, this is still a good place to hit. I expect the bats to come to life on Tuesday. Plesac has now allowed HR's in seven straight games, 10 of them in that 7-game span. That figures to spell trouble against this Blue Jay lineup. Overall, he's got a 4.59 ERA on the road. Ryu's last game against Cleveland saw 13 total runs scored. Ryu came over to the Jays last year but they didn't play here at Toronto. So, this is his first game here, as a Blue Jay. When he previously pitched here, several years ago now, the game saw 19 runs scored. Ryu gave up nine hits in 5 1/3 innings. I believe this number is generously low and I look for the final score to prove higher than many will be expecting.