Ben Burns Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

Gibson, who is 7-2 with a 1.97 ERA in his "home" starts, is off a quality effort but the Phillies didn't give him enough run support. That shouldn't be an issue today; Howard is 1-6 with a 6.51 ERA for his career. He's supported by a Pirate pen which has a 5.20 ERA on the road. The Philadelphia bats came alive yesterday with 12 runs. With the Pirates just 23-54 on the road, this one goes to the surging Phillies. Consider laying the wood. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds have certainly been a disappointing team down the stretch. That said, the Nationals have been a disappointing team all season. I expect the Reds to have a significant advantage in this one. Espino goes up against "Gray" for the second straight time. However, last time he was pitching at home and facing "Jon" Gray. (Rockies are 3-11 when Gray starts on the road.) This evening, he's on the road and he'll be opposed by "Sonny" Gray. That's worth mentioning as Espino greatly prefers to pitch in his own park. He's got a solid 3.27 ERA in 11 home starts but a poor 6.00 ERA when starting on the road. The Nats are 1-5 in his six road starts, none of which have been quality. Last time on the road, he allowed five earned runs. Gray, on the other hand, is off b2b quality starts. In fact, he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight straight starts. Look for the Reds to bounce back, moving to 22-10 their last 32 as home favorites in the -175 to -250 range. 

I'm playing TORONTO on the moneyline. I've already successfully played against the Argos twice this month. I went against them in the first of their two games against Hamilton (the one they got blown out in) and then also played against them in their last game, a 30-16 loss at Saskatchewan. This one sets up differently though. The Argos were on the road for both of those double-digit losses. In each case, I saw a number of reasons to support their opponent. This evening, however, the Argos are playing at home. They match up better against the Als then tney did against each other the Riders or the TiCats. They're also working with an extra day's worth of rest than the Als; they last played 9/17 while Montreal played on 9/18. The home team has won nine of the past 10 meetings between these teams. Argos bounce back. 

I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. I won with the Cavaliers in their blowout win over Illinois. However, UNC brought them back down to earth last week and I expect them to have their hands full again on Friday night. Wake Forest beat Virginia 40-23 last season. This year's team is even better, as the Deacons returned 20 starters from last year's team. While the Cavs were getting beaten up by the Tar Heels last week, the Deacons are off a confidence-building 35-14 beatdown of Florida State. Indeed, this team is better than many may yet realize. Note that WF is 5-1 ATS its last six, when coming off a SU victory. Including last year's victory, the Deacons are a perfect 6-0 ATS the past six meetings in the series. (They've won the last four meetings outright and the two before that were losses of one point and three points.) The Cavs will eventually snap that streak. Just not on Friday night. Grab the points.