Ben Burns Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

I'm playing on LA/Phoenix UNDER the total. After Game 1 finished above the number, we're working with a bigger total for Game 2. I expect it to prove too high. The first game had a low-scoring first quarter (21-21) before extremely high-scoring second and third quarters. Things slowed down again in the fourth. We've seen the Clippers clamp down defensively in each of the first two series, once they've fallen behind though. I don't expect them to allow the Suns to hit better than 55% of their field goals and more than 40% of their 3-point shots this time. Scoring is a different matter though as the Suns know how to be very stingy themselves. In these playoffs alone, they've already had games on this floor where they held the visiting team to 85, 90 and 98 points. On the season, Phoenix allows 106.5 ppg at home while LA allows 107.6 ppg on the road. Clipper road games have been lower-scoring than their home games. Meanwhile, Phoenix home games have been lower-scoring than its road games. Prior to Game 1, the three previous 2021 meetings had seen scores of 219, 216 and 210. All things considered, this number is generously high. 

I'm playing on VEGAS. It would have been easy for the Knights to fold last game. After the way Game 3 had ended - a horrible blunder by their goalie late in regulation followed by an OT loss - Vegas certainly had an excuse. The Knights showed a lot of heart and resilience though and found a way to bounce back and level the series. Having now shaken off the Game 3 debacle, back home, I expect the Knights to seize control of the series. We saw last night in Tampa that talent does matter. In this case, the talent gap is arguably even wider. Home ice matters, too. The Habs are 11-10-7 on the road, the Knights are 21-5-2 at home. The Canadiens have been a great story but they get outclassed tonight. Vegas wins. 

I'm playing on CROATIA (Draw = No Bet.) This line has come down considerably, providing us with excellent value. It should be an exciting team, as both teams need to win. England and the Czech Republic, the other teams in the Group, have already punched their tickets to the next round. These teams both know they need a victory, in order to have a chance to join them. Note that while neither will be happy with the draw, it is still a possibility. So, I'm electing to play on the "Draw=No Bet" line. That said, I expect victory for Croatia. Yes, Scotland has the venue in its favor. The Scots are also the only team in the tournament which has yet to score though. Additionally, they're now dealing with the loss of Billy Gilmour, arguably their best player in the 0-0 draw with England. While its a been a disappointing tournament, this is an experienced and talented Croatia team, one which went to the finals of the last World Cup. Look for that experience to prove the difference this afternoon.

I'm playing on SEATTLE. The Rockies are almost always terrible on the road. They're 5-27 away from Colorado. The Mariners, by comparison, are a healthy 23-15 at home. Tonight, in addition to the venue and an advantage in the bullpen, the M's have a starter in far better current form. Flexen tossed eight shutout innings last time out. He's got a stellar 2.16 ERA and 1.016 WHIP at home, averaging six innings. Seattle is 5-2 when he takes the mound here. On the other hand, Freeland is 0-2 with a 9.58 ERA and an obscene 2.274 WHIP in five starts this season. Over his last three, his ERA climbs to 12.79, the WHIP rising to 2.447. Freeland may have had success here in the past but its hard to just flip a switch and suddenly be good; he's given up nine HR's his last three starts. Overall, Seattle has won four straight with Flexen on the mound, going 7-1 his last eight starts. Expect another Seattle win tonight.