Ben Burns Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

10* GAME OF WEEK on Colorado Rockies. I love the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s humbling 13-5 defeat. The Pirates turn to Chad Kuhl (3-6, 4.85 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits and three walks over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against Milwaukee on Monday. Kuhl has looked better of late, but if he’s had one clear weakness this year it’s been his play in all “night” contests, where he’s gone a poor 3-6 with a 6.13 ERA thus far. Colorado counters with German Marquez (7-4, 4.34) who gave up three runs off eight hits and two walks while striking out nine over 6.2 innings in a victory over San Diego on Monday. His 4-2, 4.57 ERA record at home is impressive considering the venue. The Pirates are a poor 29-35 (-7.3 units) in all “night” games, while the Rockies are 31-28 (+3.9 units) this year in the same position. Everything points to some immediate revenge, Rockies roll.

10* BLUE CHIP SUPER TOTAL under Rangers/Rays. These teams played to an “under” yesterday and I think all signs once again point to a classic “duel” this evening as well. Texas turns to Andrew Cashner (4-8, 3.58 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits and two walks over six innings in a loss to Baltimore on Monday. It was his second consecutive quality start (note that Cashner owns a respectable 3.60 ERA in all “night” games this year.) Tampa counters with ace Chris Archer (7-5, 3.91) who gave up two runs off five hits with nine K’s in an unfortunate no-decision against the Angels on Sunday. It was his fourth straight quality effort and he’ll now look to build off his 3-2, 3.70 ERA record at home. Texas has seen the total go under the number in five of seven as a road underdog in the +175 to +250 range this season, while Tampa Bay has seen the total go under in four of its last six against clubs with losing records. This number is a little high, play the under. 

8* RUN-LINE play on Seattle Mariners. I think the home side will keep tonight’s contest much more competitive after falling 5-1 on Friday. The Yankees turn to Masahiro Tanaka (7-9, 5.33 ERA) who gave up three earned runs over seven innings in a loss to Boston on Sunday. It was his third straight loss. Note that Tanaka has consistently been at his worst on the road as well by going 3-5 with a 5.88 ERA. Seattle counters with Ariel Miranda (7-4, 4.35) who comes in off consecutive poor outings. Miranda has been hit or miss of late, but has been at his best at home this season by going 3-2 with a 3.23 ERA. New York is just 17-21 (-11.8 units) against teams with losing records, while Seattle is 27-24 (+6.2 units) against clubs with winning records. Play on Seattle (RUN-LINE)

8* RUN-LINE play on Baltimore Orioles. Houston came out on top in yesterday’s 8-7 victory over Baltimore and I think all signs point to another “nail-biter” tonight as well. The Astros turn to Collin McHugh (13-10, 4.34 ERA), who makes his season debut in this one. McHugh posted a 3.60 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 11:4 K:BB over 15 innings in Double-A. Baltimore counters with Chris Tillman (1-5, 7.20) who for the most part has been an absolute disaster this year, but who will now look to build off his best performance of the season after giving up one run over six innings in a no-decision against Texas on Sunday (owns a 5.22 ERA at home.) Is Tillman really as bad as what his grotesque first half numbers would indictate? I think the answer that one is: no. Tillman has the pedigree and track record to whittle down his deplorable numbers and there’s no question that this is a matchup in his favor. McHugh has plenty of upside, but draws a tough first assignment. Play on the Orioles (RUN-LINE)

8* RUN-LINE play on Philadelphia Phillies. I think the Phillies can build off yesterday’s 6-1 victory. That said, in a contest which could see extra innings, I’m going to lay what I think to be a very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs. Milwaukee turns to Brent Suter (1-1, 3.09 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits and two walks over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against Pittsburgh on Monday. Philadelphia counters with Jeremy Hellickson (6-5, 4.44) who comes in off a win against these very Brewers last Monday, giving up two runs over five innings while also going on to strikeout six. Hellickson has the pedigree and track record to continue to progress in the second half and I think this is a matchup which favors the Phillies’ veteran. Suter has plenty of up-side, but regression seems imminent. Play on Philadelphia (RUN-LINE)

10* AFTERNOON ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco Giants. I think the Giants will bounce back after yesterday’s 12-9 defeat. The Padres turn to Luis Perdomo (4-5, 4.94 ERA) who gave up seven runs off six hits and three walks over 2.1 innings in a loss to Colorado on Monday (note that he’s just 1-4 with a 5.09 ERA on the road.) San Fran counters with Matt Moore (3-10, 5.81) who gave up four runs (just two earned) off six hits and one walk while striking out five over seven innings in a loss to Cleveland on Monday. Moore for the most part has been a big disappointment this year, but he still owns a decent home ERA (3.99) and in all “day” games (3.67.) Both teams are playing out the second half without any hopes at making the playoffs. All things being equal, I think Moore has the advantage at home and that’s more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the Giants this afternoon. Lay the price.