Ben Burns Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

I'm playing on CAROLINA. These teams split a pair of meetings, at Montreal. The Canes have home ice advantage now though which is important as the Canadiens aren't nearly as strong on the road. Both teams played yesterday, each earning a crucial victory. However, while the Habs played at Montreal, the Canes did so right here, at Raleigh. Sleeping in their own beds and not having to travel figures to help them this evening. Note that the Canadiens lost 8-2 (at Anaheim) the last time that they played the second of b2b games, falling to 5-8 in that situation. Expect home ice to prove the difference. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA (8* VIOLATOR). After last season's first round debacle, the Cavs were under serious pressure, entering this year's tournament. That pressure seemed to get to them a little in the first half of their opener, as they found themselves trailing at the break. They responded with flying colors in the second half, however, pulling away for a convincing victory. That monkey off their back, I now expect them to dominate from the opening tip. The Sooners are 0-3 SU/ATS their last three against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game and they won't have seen a defense this good. The Cavs allow less than 56 ppg (55.1) overall, a mere 51.8 ppg against non-conf. opponents. While the Sooners are just 4-11 SU their last 15, when playing with one or less day's rest in between games, the Cavs are 15-4 SU their last 19, when doing so. Expect them to improve on those stats here, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. The Knicks have covered just once recently but I expect their best effort this afternoon. Note that they're 10-6 ATS after having failed to cover six or seven of their previous eight. They're also 7-3 ATS their last 10, off three straight double-digit losses. The Clippers, 0-2 ATS off a road win off three or less, are off a 2-point win at Cleveland. While that marked their fourth straight win, none of those came by greater than seven points. Note that they're just 5-10 ATS their last 15 as road favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. The Knicks won outright by 22 when hosting the Clippers last season. Playing an early game in the Eastern Time Zone, look for them to give their West Coast based guests all they can handle once again. 

I'm playing on COLUMBUS. Winless (0-3) on their current 4-game road trip, the Blue Jackets come in as an absolutely desperate team. They've fallen out of playoff position and time is running out fast. Sunday, the well-rested Jackets catch the Canucks off a big division game vs. Calgary on Saturday. The Jackets, who lost 4-1 at Edmonton on Thursday, are 16-7 off a loss by two or more goals. Going back further finds them at 43-21 (+14.3) in that situation the past few seasons. During that span, the Jackets are also 38-21 (+9.2) when playing with 2-day's rest. Not that the Jackets need any extra motivation but they also haven't forgotten that the Canucks upset them, at Columbus already this season and swept them last season. Desperate for a win, schedule in their favor, expect the Jackets get some payback. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Vols got tested for awhile in their opener. However, they pulled away when it mattered. Having had their "wake-up call," I expect Schofield and co. to flex their muscles and to deliver a double-digit win vs. an over-matched Iowa team. The Hawkeyes managed an upset of Cincinnati in the opener. However, Tennessee is in an entirely different class. Even with the win over the Bearcats, Iowa is still just 19-27-3 ATS as an underdog, the past 2+ seasons. During the same span, the Vols are 2-0 as neutral court favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. Having failed to cover in either of their last two games, note that the Vols are a lucrative 12-7 ATS the past 19 times that they were off b2b games, where they'd failed to cover the spread. The Vols are better on both sides of the ball; they score more and allow less. Expect a double-digit win. 

I'm playing UC Urvine/Oregon UNDER the total. The Ducks are playing dominant defense. They held Wisconsin to 54 points in the opening round after limiting Washington to just 48 in the Pac-12 finals. They've allowed 61 or fewer points in eight of their past nine games, 54 or less in seven of those. The Anteaters have also been very stingy. They allowed 64 in their opener and have now allowed an average of just 59.75 ppg their last four. Note that the UNDER is 6-3 when they'd allowed 65 or less in b2b games. The UNDER is also 11-6 when the Anteaters had allowed 30 or fewer first half points, in b2g games. While this O/U line may initially seem a little low, keep in mind that the UNDER is 4-1 when the Ducks played a game with an O/U line in the 120s. Its also worth noting that the UNDER is 2-0 when the Ducks were listed as neutral court favorites in the -3.5 to -6 points. Going back further finds the UNDER at 9-4 the last 13 times that Oregon was in that situation. Expect those stats to improve, as defense takes center stage in this one.