Ben Burns Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the run-line (8* SPECIAL, +1.5 runs.) While I like their chances of winning this one "outright," I expect the Padres to earn AT LEAST a victory on the run-line here. Luchessi has been solid all season long. He's got a 3.45 ERA and 1.229 WHIP through 18 starts. Last time out, he tossed six shutout innings; the Padres have now won his past two starts. Before that, they lost by a single run against these same Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, Arizona is 0-3 the last three times that Ray took the mound, the veteran southpaw posting a 4.60 ERA in those starts. Thats actually better than his 4.83 mark on the season. Grab the extra +1.5 runs with the home team. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (8* PERS FAV). While I of course respect Syndergaard, he's in tough here. Nola has been a beast all season. He's 13-3 with a 2.28 ERA overall and 8-0 with a dominating 2.07 ERA in 11 home starts. The Phillies won ALL 11 of those games. With a 1.35 ERA his last three starts, he's showing no signs of slowing down either. Syndergaard, on the other hand, has a 4.43 ERA his last three starts. Entering the series, while NY relievers had a 5.56 ERA on the road, Philly relievers had a 3.02 mark at home. Expect Nola's highly impressive run to continue. 

I'm playing on KC/Chicago to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Over his past two starts, Junis has allowed only two combined runs, on eight hits, while striking out 16 batters. For the season, six of his nine road starts have fallen below the total. While he took an "L" for his efforts, Shields was sharp again last time out, holding the Indians to two earned runs through seven complete innings. The veteran has gone a minimum of six innings in 18 of his last 21 starts. For the season, the UNDER is 11-4 when he starts here at home. That includes a 4-2 loss the last time he faced the Royals. Expect another relatively well-pitched affair here, the final combined score staying beneath the number. 

I'm playing on BOSTON (8* VIOLATOR). The Rays did the Sox a favor by beating the Yankees the past couple of days. Don't expect Boston to go easy on them today though. The Sox are 17-7 (+5.9) as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range and they're a dominating 40-14 (+18.4) when playing a game with an O/U line of 9 or 9.5. They're also 34-13 (+17.6) when playing with a day off. While the Rays are 1-6 when Stanek starts on the road, the Sox are 6-2 overall (3-1 at home) when Johnson gets the call. While the Rays average 4.1 runs per game on the road, the Sox average 5.8 runs per game at home. All things considered, this price could easily be higher. 

I'm playing on NY (8* ANNIHILATOR). Off back-to-back losses, expect the Yankees to be all business here. Lynn has been superb since joining the team. In two starts as a Yankee, he's got a 0.54 ERA in 16 2/3 innings. For the season, he's got a 2.78 ERA in 10 "home" starts. He's also now 80-55 with a 3.55 ERA for his career. Stroman, on the other hand, is 2-5 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.559 WHIP on the road. In two starts against the Yanks this season, he's allowed 12 runs (10 earned) in 10 1/3 innings. Stroman got the better of Lynn in a 3-1 game at Toronto, back in June of 2014. Now, more than four years later, its payback time. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* GAME OF WEEK). Getting more than a field goal, I feel that the Dolphins are offering us excellent value. Miami, which lost its opener by two points, has a trio of capable backups all looking to improve their status behind starter Tannehill. Fales started as #3 but is looking to supplant Osweiler for the #2 job. Bryce Petty is also capable. I also like the level of seriousness that we're seeing from Tannehill, who recently called out a rookie running back, telling him to leave the huddle, for missing a block in practice. Miami players are well aware that projections on their season are pretty bleak. Expect them to treat this one a little more seriously than their hosts, leading to AT LEAST a cover.