Ben Burns Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

I'm playing on Clev/Detroit OVER the total. These are two bad teams, both dealing with injuries. Both have seen their recent games stay below the total, too. As a result, we're getting a low O/U line to work with, the lowest on the Monday board. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Keep in mind that neither team will be making the playoffs. When playing playoff teams, there's reason to play defense. But now that they're matched up against an opponent which is also playing out the string, there's little reason to do so. The last meeting had an O/U line of 222.5 and finished with 229 combined points. The last meeting here at Detroit had an O/U line of 214.5 and finished with 247 points. The last time that the Pistons were off three straight 'unders,' their next game finished with 228, comfortably above the total. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the OVER improving to 12-6 the past 18 times that Detroit had seen its previous three games fall below the number. 

I'm playing SD/Milwaukee OVER the total. With Musgrove having thrown a no-hitter and both pitchers in excellent early form, we're working with a very low O/U number. Its the lowest on the Monday board. With all due respect to Musgrove and Woodruff, I believe it'll prove to be too low. Keep in mind that Musgrove followed-up his no-hitter by going four innings in his next start. History suggests that he won't be going the distance here. Ditto for Woodruff; he's averaging less than six innings. While the SD bullpen has been solid thus far, the Brewer bullpen has been quite hittable and has already blown a few saves. The Brewers know Musgrove pretty well from his time in Pittsburgh. Four of his five starts against them have produced double-digits in runs, the OVER going 4-1. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing Washington on the run-line (+1.5 runs) I like Washington's chances of winning this one "outright." However, given the early form of these starters, runs could be harder to come by than they normally are for a game at Washington. (O/U line is eight, as of this writing.) Flaherty is off b2b gems while Ross has a 0.00 ERA through his two starts. In a well-pitched game, that makes every extra +1.5 runs that much more valuable. Flaherty did just dominate the Nats at St. Louis. However, the Cards are 0-2 in his two starts here at Washington, losing by a combined score of 12-4. Note that one of those was a 1-run game. Ross just dominated the Cards (the day after Flaherty stymied the Nats) and Washington is now 3-0 his last three starts against St. Louis. While the Nats won those games by a combined score of 14-2, the lone one at Washington was a 1-run (2-1 Nats) game. Expect AT LEAST another "run-line cover" from Ross and the Nats in this one. 

I'm playing on LIVERPOOL. LP won 4-3 when these teams met back in the fall. This one likely won't be quite as exciting, from a goals perspective, but I expect the end result, a Liverpool victory, to remain the same. The Reds are playing some of their best soccer right now, as they've won three straight league games. They've beaten Leeds three straight times and are undefeated (7 wins, 1 draw) the last eight meetings. To its credit, Leeds has also been playing well of late. United has cleaned up its goals allowed and checks in off a shocking upset of Man City. That result will ensure that the Reds don't take the Whites for granted though. LP is an extremely dangerous team. Look for Leeds to miss its captain, Liam Cooper, for his red card against City and for his absence to prove costly. Back in league play, LP bounces back from the draw against Real Madrid with a "W" this afternoon. 

I'm playing on Columbus/Florida OVER the total. The Panthers can score goals in bunches and the Blue Jackets can give them up in bunches. The Panthers scored five goals themselves last time out. Note that the OVER is a profitable 50-34-3 the past few seasons, when they were off a game where they scored four or more goals. The Jackets have given up four or more goals in five straight games now, an average of 4.6 per game during that stretch. Three of the last four meetings have produced a minimum of six combined goals. I expect this one to get there, too. 

I'm playing on NASHVILLE. Off b2b losses against a tough Carolina team, the Preds will be happy to step down in class to take on Chicago. Indeed, they've dominated the Black Hawks. They're a perfect 5-0 this season and 6-1 the last seven meetings, here at Nashville. Beating teams like Chicago and losing against teams like Carolina has been the norm for Nashville this season. While they've consistently struggled against winning teams, they've consistently beaten losing teams. In fact, they're 19-4 against teams with a losing record. I feel that the price could easily be higher and I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on CALGARY. The Sens have actually beaten the Flames the past few meetings. There is no way that Calgary can afford to let it happen again. Two of those three wins were at Ottawa. The Sens are worse on the road and the Flames are better at home. Calgary has still won three of the past four meetings here and 11 of the past 14. The Sens, who are off a 4-0 upset win, are 0-6 the past six times that they were off a win by two or more goals, an ugly 8-32 their last 40 in that situation. Meanwhile, the Flames are 3-0 when playing with two day's rest in between games. Calgary gets some payback and a much-needed two points.