Ben Burns Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

I'm playing on MIAMI (8* BEST BET). With many jumping on the Bears and causing the line to move, I feel we're now getting excellent value with what should be a highly motivated Miami team. The Dolphins have indeed dropped two straight; we went against them at New England. Both those losses were on the road though. This afternoon, they're back home, where they're 2-0 on the season. Meanwhile, the Bears have won just three of their last 18 on the road. True, they're better now. However, this season, the Bears' first two road games were decided by one ppoint and by two points, scores of 23-24 and 16-14. This one could also easily come down to the wire and I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on WINNIPEG (10* PERS FAV). While the Canes are playing well, they're now up against one of the top teams in hockey. Not only do the Jets have an edge in talent and the venue working in their favor, they've also got the schedule-maker in their corner for this one. The Canes are off a hard-fought OT win at Minnesota; the Jets have had the past two days off. Winnipeg, which swept Carolina last season, is 21-11 (+8.9) the past couple of seasons, when playing with two day's rest. With the schedule and venue in their favor, expect the Jets, who outshot LA 39-17 in winning their only game here so far, to improve on those stats this evening.  

I'm playing on SEATTLE (8* BREAKFAST CLUB). Both teams lost against LA last week. However, while the Raiders were blown out by the Raiders, the Seahawks gave the Rams all they could handle. No easy feat, the way that the Rams have been rolling. At 2-3, the Hawks know they need to win but still feel that their season is still very much alive. At 1-4, the Raiders can't be feeling the same way. I like that the Hawks arrived in London on Wednesday a lot more so than the Raiders who aren't leaving until Thursday night. While Gruden claims that he's "done the research," I expect the Hawks' approach to pay dividends. The Hawks are 3-0 SU their last three off a divisional loss. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* GAME OF MONTH). Needless to say, with a 1-4 record and with Carolina and New Orleans sitting at 3-1 and 4-1, this is a must-win game for the Falcons. The Bucs came back down to earth in a big way last time out (48-10 loss) and now Winston will be making his first start of the season. While they don't count close losses in the standings, it should be noted that Atlanta could easily have a better record and is still a talented team. The Falcons are still 13-8 here the past 2+ seasons, the Bucs are still 7-11 on the road, during the same period. The Falcons won both meetings against the Bucs last season, including a 34-20 victory in the game here at Atlanta. Note that the Falcons were laying -10 for that one. While salvaging the season isn't going to be at all easy, I don't believe that Falcons are ready to pack it in quite yet. Expect their best effort to lead to a win and cover. 

I'm playing on Indianapolis/NY to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL). This is the highest O/U line that the Jets have seen yet this season and I feel that it'll prove to be too high. While the Jets have been limited to 17 or fewer points in three of their five games, the Colts have been held to 24 or fewer points in four of their five games. Indy road games are averaging 42.6 points. New York home games are averaging 41. While the Jets have seen the UNDER go 7-3 their last 10 against sub-500 teams, the Colts have seen the UNDER go 7-3 the last 10 times that they were off two or more consecutive losses. With both teams chewing up the clock with a fairly heavy dose of the run, expect those stats to improve Sunday afternoon.