Ben Burns Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

Yesterday, Ben Burns gave you an EASY complimentary winner with Brooklyn. (The underdog Nets won outright vs. the Raptors.) Today, Burns offers his opinion from the Colorado/Tampa hockey game:

Admittedly, the Avs have been playing well. Their 39 points is tied for the most in the Western Conference. However, they're up against the top team in the entire league today and I'm not sure that they're ready. Tampa checks in with 45 points and on a 5-game winning streak. While the Lightning tend to get fired up for other top teams, the same cannot necessarily be said for Colorado. Over the past couple of seasons, the Avs are 40-61 (-7.8) against teams with a winning record. During the same span, the Bolts were 63-45 (+8.8). The Avs would surely like to avenge an earlier 1-0 loss at Colorado. They're only 22-34 the past 56 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss though. With the Lightning at 38-15 (+6.7) the past couple of seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of six or greater, this line could easily be higher. Consider Tampa. 

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I'm playing on FLORIDA (8* BREAKFAST CLUB). Needless to say, I respect the Spartans. In fact, I won with them in their last game, when they destroyed Iowa. That was at home, however, where the Spartans are perfect. (Plus, the Hawkeyes currently aren't that good.) This afternoon, they're at a tough road venue against a far more difficult opponent. Note that both the Spartans' losses have come on the road. In fact, they're only 7-12-1 ATS their last 20 road lined games. During the same span, the Gators have won 24 of 30 at home, including all three this season. Last time out, the stingy Gates beat WVU by double-digits. The Mountaineers managed a mere 56 points, on just 29% shooting. Before that, the Gators hammered North Florida by 32. They're 9-2 (SU) the past couple of seasons, when off b2b double-digit victories. Expect them to keep rolling with AT LEAST another cover here.

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. The Aggies have narrowly missed covering a few times recently. However, they're still feeling good about themselves, off b2b double-digit SU victories. The Eagles, on the other hand, are off a tough, deflating OT loss vs. Providence, their former Big East rival. The Eagles were down double-digits much of the first half of that one. To fight all the way back, only to ultimately lose, figures to take a toll. The Eagles really missed 6-11 Nik Popovic (concussion) last game and will suffer again if he's unavailable. Even if he was allowed to return, its not going to matter against a determined Aggie team. Note that the Eagles are 0-4 ATS the past four times that they were road underdogs of six or fewer points. Expect the Aggies to take care of business, moving to 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were off three or more consecutive ATS losses. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Nuggets absolutely destroyed the Hawks, at Denver, a few weeks ago, a 45-point beatdown. At the time, the Hawks were in the middle of a road trip and had just lost tight games against the Lebron Lakers and the defending champion Warriors. Off those b2b close losses and weary from being thousands of miles from home, they were vulnerable. This time, its the Hawks which are at home. This time, its the Nuggets who have been on the road for some time. The Nuggets played last night at Charlotte and are now playing their third game in four days, the final leg of a 5-game road trip. Dating back to the 11/15 game against the Hawks, the Nuggets have not played in the same arena in consecutive games. Thats a lot of travel; after this they finally get a 4-game home stretch. The Hawks haven't forgotten the 11/15 loss. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to improve to 11-4 ATS the last 15 times that they attempted to avenge a loss of 20 or more points. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA (8* VIOLATOR). The Panthers have been alternating wins and losses for some time. On 11/24, they lost against Chicago. That was followed by a win against New Jersey and then by a loss against Anaheim. Next, came a victory against Buffalo, a loss against Tampa, a win against Boston. Most recently, they lost against Colorado. Off that setback and playing with 'double-revenge,' I expect the 'pattern' to continue and for the Panthers to bounce back with another victory. While the Rangers have won both this season's meetings, both of those were at MSG. Thats significant as NY is 10-4 at home but 3-8 on the road. The last meeting here was last March and the Panthers won 4-3. More of the same Saturday. 

I'm playing on Army/Navy OVER the total (8* BEST BET). These teams have had a recent history of low-scoring games, a longstanding run of 'unders.' I say that the streak comes to an end this year though. None of the recent games between these teams have had an O/U line this low. In fact, I looked all the way back to 1995 and none of them were this low. Series history notwithstanding, I feel that its too low. Navy's games have finished with 100, 43, 73, 61, 42, 41, 85, 66, 42, 59, 66 and 57 combined points. Notice that ALL TWELVE GAMES produced a minimum of 41 points. As for Army, nine of its 10 games produced at least 42 combined points. One difference between this year's game and other recent games is that Army is now the favorite, instead of Navy. The OVER is 14-6 the last 20 times that the Knights were laying points. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon