Big Al McMordie Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over New Orleans.  This is a big revenge game for Tom Brady & Co., as they were blown out, 38-3, at home in the previous meeting.  We played on New Orleans in that game, but will take Tampa Bay this evening.  For technical support, consider that revenge-minded teams that lost by 30+ points earlier in the season, have gone 6-0 ATS as single-digit underdogs.  Even better:  Tom Brady's a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season by 13+ points, and 11-1 SU/ATS his last 12 games vs. division rivals when playing with revenge (regardless of the margin of defeat).  And, finally, NFC South division teams have gone 10-0 ATS since 2003 when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat earlier in the season.  Take Tampa Bay + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Cleveland.  Last week, the Browns won their biggest game in decades when they went into Pittsburgh, and upset their rivals, 48-37, as a 5-point underdog.  But off that huge win, we'll fade the Browns this afternoon.  In general, I prefer to go against teams off big offensive playoff wins.  And especially when such teams don't have great defenses to match their high-octane offenses.  And Cleveland does not.  The Browns are scoring 26.82 ppg this season, but also giving up the exact amount, on defense.  In contrast, Kansas City only gives up 22.62 ppg.  And to put the Browns' defense into context, consider that there have been just 6 NFL teams of 480 that made the playoffs over the last 41 seasons to have given up more than 26 points per game!  We'll go against Cleveland, as NFL teams that scored more than 38 points in their previous game are 0-11 ATS on the road if they didn't have a better defense than their opponent.  That doesn't bode well for Cleveland at Arrowhead this afternoon.   Nor does the fact that teams that covered the spread by more than 13 points the previous week have cashed just 16% in the Playoffs vs. defending Super Bowl champions.  And, finally, Andy Reid-coached teams have gone 67% ATS, including 6-2, 75% ATS in the Playoffs, when they were off a bye week, which gave Reid an extra week to prepare.  Take the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Indiana.  Both of these teams come into tonight's game on win streaks.  Indiana has won and covered two straight, while the Clippers have won each of their last three games.  But the key factor for our play tonight is that Indiana won its last two games as an underdog.  And the Pacers are a horrid 0-19 ATS off back to back covers as an underdog, if they've owned a win percentage greater than .575, and also won their previous game straight-up.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are 91-63 ATS when favored, including 15-2 ATS vs. foes off an upset road win.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over Boston.  In this Atlantic Division match-up, we'll take Tom Thibodeau's Knicks as a road underdog.  After winning 5 of 6 games -- both SU and ATS -- the Knicks have hit the skids, with five straight losses (also both SU and ATS).  But in none of those five games were the Knicks installed as an underdog of 6+ points (as they are this afternoon).  And New York is 4-1 ATS their last five when getting 6+ points.  Moreover, the Knicks fall into one of my favorite NBA systems today.  it's cashed 80.9% over the last 31 years, and what we want to do is play on .375 (or better) rested road teams in division games, if they're an underdog of +5 (or more) points, and off five SU/ATS losses.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.