I’ve taken some time to put together a history of the points spreads for every Final Four matchup and NCAA Championship Game.  This data goes back to when the field expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. I’ve included the seeds of each team, the spread and the ATS winner for all games where a line was accessible. We were unable to locate the lines for the Final Four games before the 2002-03 season.

Biggest Semifinal Upsets

These tables are a great way to look back over history and relive some of the biggest upsets.  Connecticut’s 63-53 win over Florida in the 2014 tourney marked the end of an impressive run for favorites.  It was the first upset in the semifinals since Michigan State knocked off UConn 82-73 as a 4.5-point dog in 2009.

Another interesting note is that only four times since 2003 has a Final Four team been favored by seven or more points. Each of the last three dogs in this spot have covered. The biggest being Wichita State as a 9.5-point dog against Louisville back in 2013.

Biggest Upsets in NCAA Tournament Championship Games

As far as the Championship Game, the biggest upset based on the spread since 1985 is Connecticut’s 77-74 win over Duke.  They were a 9.5-point underdog back in 1994. One of the interesting things to note about that matchup is that both teams were a No. 1 seed. The next biggest spread during this stretch when two No. 1 seeds met in the title game was Florida -4 over Ohio State in 2007.

Connecticut’s not the only champion that won despite not getting a lot of love from the oddsmakers. Kansas (1988) and Villanova (1985) both won the title as 8-point underdogs.  Arizona pulled off the upset as a 7-point dog in 1997.

Only once since the field has expanded to 64 teams has a team been listed as a double-digit favorite in the championship game. That honor belongs to Kentucky, who was a massive 14-point favorite over Syracuse in 1996. The Wildcats would go on to win the title, but the Orange covered the number in a 67-76 defeat.

Point Spread History for the NCAA Basketball Championship Game

YearMatchup (Seed)SpreadScoreWinnerATS Winner
2016Villanova (2) vs. North Carolina (1)North Carolina -277-74VillanovaVillanova +2
2015Wisconsin (1) vs. Duke (1)Wisconsin -168-63DukeDuke +1
2014Kentucky (8) vs. Connecticut (7)Kentucky -2.560-54ConnecticutConnecticut +2.5
2013Michigan St (4) vs. Louisville (1)Louisville -482-76LouisvilleLouisville -4
2012Kansas (2) vs. Kentucky (1)Kentucky -6.567-59KentuckyKentucky -6.5
2011Butler (8) vs. Connecticut (3)Connecticut -353-41ConnecticutConnecticut -3
2010Butler (5) vs. Duke (1)Duke -761-59DukeButler +7
2009Michigan St (2) vs. N. Carolina (1)N. Carolina -7.589-72N. CarolinaN. Carolina -7.5
2008Memphis (1) vs. Kansas (1)Memphis -275-68 (OT)KansasKansas +2
2007Ohio State (1) vs. Florida (1)Florida -484-75FloridaFlorida -4
2006Florida (3) vs. UCLA (2)Florida -173-57FloridaFlorida -1
2005Illinois (1) vs. N. Carolina (1)N. Carolina -275-70N. CarolinaN. Carolina -2
2004Ga Tech (3) vs. Connecticut (2)Connecticut -582-73ConnecticutConnecticut -5
2003Syracuse (3) vs. Kansas (2)Kansas -5.581-78SyracuseSyracuse +5.5
2002Indiana (5) vs. Maryland (1)Maryland -7.564-52MarylandMaryland -7.5
2001Arizona (2) vs. Duke (1)Arizona -482-72DukeDuke +4
2000Florida (5) vs. Michigan St (1)Michigan St -489-76Michigan StMichigan St -4
1999Connecticut (1) vs. Duke (1)Duke -9.577-74ConnecticutConnecticut +9.5
1998Utah (3) vs. Kentucky (2)Kentucky -3.578-69KentuckyKentucky -3.5
1997Arizona (4) vs. Kentucky (1)Kentucky -784-79 (OT)ArizonaArizona +7
1996Syracuse (4) vs. Kentucky (1)Kentucky -1476-67KentuckySyracuse +14
1995Arkansas (2) vs. UCLA (1)UCLA -389-78UCLAUCLA -3
1994Duke (2) vs. Arkansas (1)Arkansas -676-72ArkansasDuke +6
1993Michigan (1) vs. N. Carolina (1)N. Carolina -2.577-71N. CarolinaN. Carolina -2.5
1992Michigan (6) vs. Duke (1)Duke -5.571-51DukeDuke -5.5
1991Kansas (3) vs. Duke (2)Duke -372-65DukeDuke -3
1990Duke (3) vs. UNLV (1)*No Line103-73UNLV*No Line
1989Seton Hall (3) vs. Michigan (3)Michigan -280-79 (OT)MichiganSeton Hall +2
1988Kansas (6) vs. Oklahoma (1)Oklahoma -883-79KansasKansas +8
1987Syracuse (2) vs. Indiana (1)Indiana -4.574-73IndianaSyracuse +4.5
1986Louisville (2) vs. Duke (1)Duke -172-69LouisvilleLouisville +1
1985Villanova (8) vs. Georgetown (1)Georgetown -866-64VillanovaVillanova +8

History of Point Spreads & Results of Final Four Games

YearMatchup (Seed)SpreadScoreWinnerATS Winner
2016North Carolina (1) vs. Syracuse (10)North Carolina -1083-66North CarolinaNorth Carolina -10
2016Villanova (2) vs. Oklahoma (2)Villanova -2.595-51VillanovaVillanova -2.5
2015Michigan State (7) vs. Duke (1)Duke -581-61DukeDuke -5
2015Wisconsin (1) vs. Kentucky (1)Kentucky -571-64WisconsinWisconsin +7
2014Florida (1) vs. Connecticut (7)Florida -763-53ConnecticutConnecticut +7
2014Wisconsin (2) vs. Kentucky (8)Kentucky -174-73KentuckyPUSH
2013Louisville (1) vs. Wichita St (9)Louisville -9.572-68LouisvilleWichita St +9.5
2013Michigan (4) vs. Syracuse (4)Michigan -1.561-56MichiganMichigan -1.5
2012Kentucky (1) vs. Louisville (4)Kentucky -8.569-61KentuckyLouisville +8.5
2012Ohio State (2) vs. Kansas (2)Ohio State -364-62KansasKansas +3
2011Kentucky (4) vs. Connecticut (3)Kentucky -256-55ConnecticutConnecticut +2
2011VCU (11) vs. Butler (8)Butler -3.570-62ButlerButler -3.5
2010Michigan St (5) vs. Butler (5)Butler -1.552-50ButlerButler -1.5
2010W. Virginia (2) vs. Duke (1)Duke -2.578-57DukeDuke -2.5
2009Michigan St. (2) vs. Connecticut (1)Connecticut -4.582-73Michigan StMichigan St +4.5
2009Villanova (3) vs. N. Carolina (1)N. Carolina -783-69N. CarolinaN. Carolina -7
2008N. Carolina (1) vs. Kansas (1)N. Carolina -2.584-66KansasKansas +2.5
2008Memphis (1) vs. UCLA (1)Memphis -278-63MemphisMemphis -2
2007Florida (1) vs. UCLA (2)Florida -376-66FloridaFlorida -3
2007Georgetown (2) vs. Ohio State (1)Georgetown -167-60Ohio StateOhio State +1
2006LSU (4) vs. UCLA (2)LSU -1.559-45UCLAUCLA +1.5
2006George Mason (11) vs. Florida (3)Florida -673-58FloridaFlorida -6
2005Illinois (1) vs. Louisville (4)Illinois -372-57IllinoisIllinois -3
2005N. Carolina (1) vs. Michigan St (5)N. Carolina -5.587-71N. CarolinaN. Carolina -5.5
2004Ga Tech (3) vs. Oklahoma St (2)Oklahoma St -467-65Ga TechGa Tech +4
2004Duke (1) vs. Connecticut (2)Connecticut -279-78ConnecticutDuke +2
2003Marquette (3) vs. Kansas (2)Marquette -494-61KansasKansas +4
2003Texas (1) vs. Syracuse (3)Texas -395-84SyracuseSyracuse +3
2002Indiana (5) vs. Oklahoma (2)73-64Indiana
2002Maryland (1) vs. Kansas (1)97-88Maryland
2001Arizona (2) vs. Michigan St (1)80-61Arizona
2001Duke (1) vs. Maryland (3)95-84Duke
2000Wisconsin (8) vs. Michigan St (1)53-41Michigan St
2000Florida (5) vs. N. Carolina (8)71-59Florida
1999Duke (1) vs. Michigan St (1)68-62Duke
1999Ohio State (4) vs. Connecticut (1)64-58Connecticut
1998N. Carolina (1) vs. Utah (3)65-59Utah
1998Stanford (3) vs. Kentucky (2)86-85 (OT)Kentucky
1997Kentucky (1) vs. Minnesota (1)78-69Kentucky
1997N. Carolina (1) vs. Arizona (4)66-58Arizona
1996Mississippi St (5) vs. Syracuse (4)77-69Syracuse
1996UMass (1) vs. Kentucky (1)81-74Kentucky
1995Arkansas (2) vs. N. Carolina (2)75-68Arkansas
1995Oklahoma St (4) vs. UCLA (1)74-61UCLA
1994Arizona (2) vs. Arkansas (1)91-82Arkansas
1994Florida (3) vs. Duke (2)70-65Duke
1993Kentucky (1) vs. Michigan (1)81-78 (OT)Michigan
1993N. Carolina (1) vs. Kansas (2)78-68N. Carolina
1992Cincinnati (4) vs. Michigan (6)76-72Michigan
1992Duke (1) vs. Indiana (2)81-78Duke
1991UNLV (1) vs. Duke (2)79-77Duke
1991N. Carolina (1) vs. Kansas (3)79-73Kansas
1990Ga Tech (4) vs. UNLV (1)90-81UNLV
1990Duke (3) vs. Arkansas (4)97-83Duke
1989Illinois (1) vs. Michigan (3)83-81Michigan
1989Duke (2) vs. Seton Hall (3)95-78Seton Hall
1988Kansas (6) vs. Duke (2)66-59Kansas
1988Arizona (1) vs. Oklahoma (1)86-78Oklahoma
1987UNLV (1) vs. Indiana (1)97-93Indiana
1987Providence (6) vs. Syracuse (2)77-63Syracuse
1986LSU (11) vs. Louisville (2)88-77Louisville
1986Duke (1) vs. Kansas (1)71-67Duke
1985St. John’s (1) vs. Georgetown (1)77-59Georgetown
1985Memphis State (2) vs. Villanova (8)52-45Villanova

We have a lot more on tournament history for those interested: