Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY, 2/23:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Monday is with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz and the Houston Rockets. Utah (18-39) has lost two games in a row after their 123-114 loss at Memphis as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Jazz stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 12.5 to 18 points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Houston (34-21) has lost two of their last three games after a 108-106 loss in New York against the Knicks as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Knicks has played 7 of their last 10 Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 6 of 8 (75%) run continued with a 2-0 Sunday to continue their 23 of 35 (66%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays! Frank CA$HED his NBA play on Boston yesterday to fuel his 24 of 36 (67%) NBA sides run with featured plays — and now tonight’s Utah-Houston ATS winner on Peacock at 9:40 PM ET is his 25* NBA Monday Peacock Game of the Month! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (577) plus the points versus the Houston Rockets (578). THE SITUATION: Utah (18-39) has lost two games in a row after their 123-114 loss at Memphis as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Houston (34-21) has lost two of their last three games after their 108-106 loss in New York against the Knicks as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ PLUS THE POINTS: With Danny Ainge running the basketball operations, Utah has become masterful in deploying the art of the soft tank. Against teams with a record below .500, they have lost 12 of their last 15 games. Head coach Will Hardy has a few cheat codes to help ensure his team will not beat their rivals in positioning themselves for the most lottery balls for the June NBA draft. The easiest one is to simply not play Lauri Markkanen. The Jazz has lost 15 of their last 16 games and 32 of their last 35 games when their best player does not play. A sneakier way to sabotage his team’s chances is to give more minutes to Keyonte George. When he is on the floor, Utah is surrendering -10.3 more points per 100 adjusted possessions per game. In their loss against the Grizzlies, another tanking team, Markkanen did not play. He is listed as probable to play tonight. George did not play in that game and is listed as questionable tonight — but do not expect to get many minutes. The flip side of the art of the soft tank is to play well against the better teams in the league to provide evidence that one is not making a complete mockery out of fundamental competition. Not surprisingly, the Jazz have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 12.5 or more points. Frankly, there is a good chance that even Utah playing with all their energies will not beat Houston on their home court — and a six-point loss becomes an ideal result. The Jazz come into this game very rested since they are the only team in the league that has played only once since the All-Star break. Utah has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after losing two games in a row, including 8 of those 13 games played on the road. The Jazz have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after a straight-up loss on the road. The Rockets’ offense has become too dependent on Kevin Durant. Since January 1st, Houston has only matched or cleared the league-average Adjusted Offensive Efficiency mark of 114.4 points per 100 adjusted possessions in five of their 24 games. During that span, when Durant is off the court, they are scoring an anemic 102.6 points per 100 adjusted possessions. Once again, Durant playing on a team without a top-level point guard leads to suspect offensive play — the season-ending injury to Fred VanVleet last fall was devastating. Since January 1st, the Rockets rank 25th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. It is hard to cover big point spreads when your offense does not overwhelm its opponents. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when laying 10 or more points, including 6 of those 9 games played at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games and 17 of their 25 games this season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 220s. Additionally, the Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games against teams with a losing record, including 11 of those 14 games played at home. 

FINAL TAKE: Houston wants to avenge their 133-125 upset loss at Utah as an 11-point favorite back on December 1st — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 opportunities for same-season revenge. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Monday Peacock Game of the Month with the Utah Jazz (577) plus the points versus the Houston Rockets (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.