Frank Sawyer of Hollywood Sports Reviewed

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 10/7:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Tuesday is with the Detroit Tigers with the money-line versus the Seattle Mariners listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Logan Gilbert. Detroit (90-77) had won two games in a row before their 3-2 loss on the road against the Mariners on Sunday that evened this best-of-five series at 1-1. The Tigers have won 9 of their last 12 games after a loss by one run. They have won 15 of their last 21 games after a day off. Seattle (91-73) snapped a four-game losing streak with the victory. The Mariners have lost 9 straight games on the road after a win by one run. They have also lost 8 of their last 12 road games with Gilbert on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. Take Detroit with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports continued their 24 of 35 (69%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after DELIVERING their 25* MLB NL Central Game of the Year last night with Milwaukee in a WINNING 2-1 Monday mark! Frank is on a 10 of 14 (71%) MLB featured plays run — and now he furthers his 15 of 22 (68%) Game of the Year/Month mark in All-Sports with his 25* MLB ALDS Total of the Year for the Seattle-Detroit O/U winner on FS1-TV with the first pitch pushed back to 7:30 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (903) and the Detroit Tigers (904) in Game Three of their American League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Seattle (91-73) snapped a four-game losing streak with a 3-2 victory at home against the Tigers on Sunday to even this series at 1-1. Detroit (90-77) had won two games in a row before the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after a win by one run. They have also played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a day off, including eight of those 11 games Over the Total in those games played on the road. They go back on the road where they have played 22 of their last 37 games Over the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. Additionally, they have played 25 of their last 41 road games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite up to a -150 price. They have played 32 of their last 51 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range, including 21 of those 34 games played on the road. Gilbert gets the ball — he posted a 6-6 record with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 25 starts in the regular season. The right-hander was more effective at home, where he enjoyed a 2.24 ERA along with a 0.76 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .158 in 13 starts — but in his 12 starts on the road, he was saddled with a 4.74 ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .261. He faces a Tigers team that ranks 10th and ninth in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Detroit has played 20 of their last 33 home games Over the Total after a loss. They have also played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a day off, including all 10 of those games played at home. Furthermore, they have played 25 of their last 43 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Flaherty, who has an 8-15 record along with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 31 starts in the regular season. In his last nine starts in the regular season, he posted a rough 5.36 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He only gave up one earned run in 4 2/3 innings of work on Thursday last week in the wild card round against Cleveland — but he still has a 6.53 ERA in his last five postseason appearances. 

FINAL TAKE: The Mariners rank second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. They have played 33 of their last 53 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB ALDS Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (903) and the Detroit Tigers (904). Best of luck for us — Frank.