Bryan Power

8* Cleveland (4:10 ET): I think its fair to say that the Indians have been a slight disappointment so far in 2017. Coming off their first American League pennant in 20 years, they've started just 24-22 and aren't even in first place of a division that were expected to run away with. Most confounding of all is the team's 8-12 record here at Progressive Field. Despite jumping out to a 4-0 lead last night, the club lost again, to the Royals no less. Allowing a six-run rally to the lowest scoring team in all of MLB certainly is not a "good look" for the Tribe, but nevertheless I anticipate them bouncing back today w/ Danny Salazar on the bump. A rare error by SS Francisco Lindor was the key play in last night's game and something like that is certainly not likely to happen again. 

Back to back offensive outbursts from the Royals have been rare this season. Consider that while last night marked the third time in the past five games they scored six times, they've totaled just two runs off the previous two occurrences. Last time in the situation, they were shutout by the Yankees on Wednesday. Not only does this team rank dead last in MLB in runs scored, but they are also 28th in team batting average, OBP and slugging. While Salazar has struggled a bit here in the month of May, he did have one relatively good outing against the Royals where he struck out seven in 4 2/3 innings and gave up just two runs. This is a talented pitcher that I believe is likely to turn things around sooner rather than later. 

Last night, the Royals got a bullpen performance that was reminiscent of their B2B runs to the World Series. Their relievers held the Indians to just three hits over six scoreless innings. But for the year, the bullpen has a 5.67 ERA and 1.590 WHIP in road games. Cleveland's bullpen has been much better w/ Chad Allen (13.7 K's per nine innings) and Andrew Miller (0.72 ERA) leading the way. It was really too bad that starter Mike Clevinger wasn't able to hold the lead last night. Another factor that has me on the Tribe here is performance in day games. They are 10-5 while the Royals are 4-11. KC will be starting Jason Vargas, who has an 8.10 ERA his L2 starts, both against the Yankees. His career ERA against the Indians is 4.33. 8* Cleveland

10* Under Reds/Phillies (4:05 ET): These two clubs have spent the majority of 2017 going Over the total thus far. Of course, that was to be expected from two bad teams projected to have less than stellar pitching staffs. But, matched up w/ one another last night, they stayed Under the total as the Reds prevailed 5-2 here in the City of Brotherly Love. Credit Cincinnati starter Tim Adelman for that as he held the Phillies to just ONE hit over eight sparkling innings. (Both runs for the home team came in a relatively meaningless rally in the bottom of the ninth). While a similar performance may not be expected today from Bronson Arroyo, note that the Phils simply aren't hitting much or scoring right now, thus Under is the play here.

Philadelphia has been held to three runs or fewer in six consecutive contests. Over the last week, they're batting a collective .164. Yesterday marked the fourth time in the last six games that they were held to only three hits. Over the last 14 games, the team is averaging less than 3.0 runs per game (2.9). While one might look at Arroyo's last two starts (11 runs & 17 hits allowed) as cause for concern here, note Adelman came into yday sporting a 6.19 ERA this season. So there's hope for any pitcher against the Phillies right now. At one point, Adelman was able to retire 16 consecutive batters. Of his 24 total outs recorded, 16 were via ground ball.

Phillies starter Jack Eickhoff is all too familiar w/ his team's offensive futility. The team has scored just one run in each of his last two outings. That's too bad because the righty has been relatively sharp. He has 12 K's in his last 12 IP and much of the damage done against him in his last start (vs. Colorado) came on two fluky hits. While still winless over nine starts (1-8 TSR), Eickhoff is certainly better than his record (0-5). The Reds' scoring average drops a full run per game on the road (.317 OBP), so that's good. With Philly not hitting much right now and Eickhoff likely to perform better than expected, I'm expecting runs to be few and far between in this Saturday afternoon matchup. It would obviously be great if we didn't have to play the bottom of the ninth as well. 10* Under Reds/Phillies

10* Arizona (4:10 ET): Neither Arizona nor Milwaukee was expected to be a legit contender in 2017, yet both started off the season well. However, of late, they've been trending in opposite directions. The D'backs have won five in a row while the Brew Crew have lost five in a row and that includes a pair of wins by the road team here in Miller Park the last two days. With a significant pitching edge today (Zack Greinke), I see this trend continuing. Arizona is now #2 in all of MLB in run differential (+60!), trailing only the division rival Dodgers. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is a curious 12-15 at home. With a lineup minus Ryan Braun already scuffling, I don't see them having many answers for Greinke today.

Each of the last four times Greinke has taken the mound, the D'backs have won. He has a 0.66 WHIP in May and last time out, he was downright dominant. He came one out shy of a complete game and allowed just one run on four hits while striking out a season-high 12 batters. Miller Park is a place Greinke used to call home (from 2011-13) as a member of the Brewers' roster and during that time he always dominated here. In 26 career starts in this ballpark, he is 16-2 w/ a 3.07 ERA. He's currently working on a 12 2/3 inning scoreless streak against his former team. With this edition of the Brew Crew having scored just nine runs total in the last four games, it seems like an ideal matchup today for Greinke.  Benefiting from betting pitch framing this season, Greinke's strikeout rate is up to a career best 29.9 percent.

Overall, Arizona has won 10 of its last 11. The pitching staff ranks a surprising 2nd in opponents batting average (.232), but the offense has also done its job by scoring the third most runs in all of baseball. So I like their chances today against Chase Anderson, who checks in w/ a 7.71 ERA and 2.071 WHIP his L3 starts. He was hammered his last time out, giving up six runs in just four innings at Chicago. He has fewer strikeouts in his last three starts combined than Grienke did his last time out alone. Unlike Arizona, the Brewers' pitching staff has simply not gotten the job done this year. They are dead last in opponents' batting average (.269) and 29th in quality starts. The offense, now dormant, carried the team early on. But are they fortunate to rank 4th in runs scored? Considering they are just 13th in team batting average and 16th in on base percentage, I'd say yes. 10* Arizona