Bryan Power Sports: Free Picks & A Handicapper Review

8* Kansas City (7:15 ET): Losers of seven straight, the White Sox are in a terrible way right now and figure to continue sinking further and further in the basement of the AL Central. The team's somewhat surprising start earlier this year was unsustainable as they were getting far better pitching than expected in the wake of sending Chris Sale to Boston. (They've since dealt Jose Quintana to the Cubs). Now they're giving up an average of over 5.0 rpg and that number should continue to rise w/ embattled starter Mike Pelfrey on the bump this evening. Last night's loss was of the crushing variety as the Sox blew a 5-1 lead and lost in extra innings. The Royals, who were in anearly season hole, have dug themselves out somewhat and won three in a row. They should continue progressing towards a possible sweep tonight.

It looks like a pretty substantial pitching mismatch here w/ Jason Vargas opposing Pelfrey. Vargas has struggled in his two July starts thus far, but that being said, it's been a strong overall year for the southpaw. He comes in w/ a 12-4 record in 18 starts (13-5 TSR), 3.05 ERA and 1.220 WHIP. Predictably, he's been stronger here at Kauffman Stadium. Let's not forget that he was an All-Star and came into July w/ a 2.22 ERA. He's off his shortest outing of the year, which is never fun, but often times leads to a bounce back the next time out. (We saw this w/ Trevor Bauer of Cleveland last night). Earlier this year, Vargas threw six solid innings against the White Sox here at home, giving up just one run on five hits. 

Meanwhile, at no juncture of the season could one reasonably conclude Pelfrey was having an effective year. His main issue is that he rarely goes deep into games. He has yet to make it past the six inning mark in any start this year and only twice has he gone longer than 5 1/3 IP. That puts a huge burden on a White Sox bullpen that simply isn't very good to begin with and let's not forget they also had a heavy workload last night. During this seven-game losing streak of theirs, Chicago is being outscored by 3.4 rpg. They've been shut out twice and held to three runs or fewer five times. 8* Kansas City

10* Under A's/Mets (7:10 ET): This Interleague matchup is taking place in a NL park, therefore my natural lean is towards the Under (AL team loses DH). Now, last night's series opener between the A's and Mets did go Over the total - as there was a late surge of runs scored including a 3-run inside the park home run that was fairly preposterous (error assisted). That's something that shouldn't happen again. Nor are the A's likely to pound out 14 hits for a second consecutive day. This is a lineup that's already 29th in baseball in team batting average (.236) and that's w/ DH, not the pitcher, coming up to bat. Yes, the Mets are the top Over team in baseball, but their scoring actually decreases dramatically here at Citi Field, down to 4.4 runs per game (5.3 rpg away).

Pitching here for Oakland will be Sean Manaea, who arguably has been their most consistent starter this year. He's 3 for 3 in quality starts here in July, turning in a 2.95 ERA and 1.172 WHIP. Last time out, he allowed just two runs and five hits in seven innings. He's now allowed 3 ER or less in five consecutive starts as well as 10 of his last 11! His ERA during that stretch is 2.92 and he's gone at least seven innings at least six times. Manaea has gotten to face only one NL lineup this year - Atlanta - and that was at home. Still, him allowing just two runs in 7 1/3 IP there is a good sign. He's allowed just 1 HR in his last five starts overall.

The Mets' Zach Wheeler seems to be headed in the opposite direction as Manaea, but this figures to be one of his easier starts this year. The Over cashed in 10 of his first 14 starts, but the last two (including a quality outing at St. Louis) have been different stories. Last time out, he did give up four runs to the Cardinals here at home as the Mets lost 6-3 (total pushed on 9.0). But note that he didn't allow a single run for five innings and he and the Mets wound up being doomed by one big inning. Despite their rightful rep as an Over team, the Mets lineup is only 12th in runs scored, 20th in OBP and 21st in team batting average. I look for this matchup to be lower-scoring than anticipated. 10* Under A's/Mets

10* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Orioles +1.5. I was aggressive in playing the O's on the money line last night (were +130) and very quickly that looked like a bad bet as they quickly fell down 5-0 after just two innings. Truthfully, they were never really "in it," but a five-run ninth at least satisfied run line bettors as the final score was 8-7. Given that result, I'll be a little more conservative today and grab the added insurance at what appears to be a great price. Admittedly, the starting pitching situation - from the Baltimore perspective - isn't a ton more desirable today compared to yesterday. But I feel Houston's starter won't be nearly as strong and thus I'm confident in saying the home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. Remember that the O's are still 29-20 at Camden Yards this year.

Tonight will mark the season debut for Astros starter Colin McHugh. Elbow issues are what has kept him out. After a breakthrough 2015, McHugh regressed some LY, finishing just 13-10 w/ a 4.34 ERA. He's never pitched particularly well against Baltimore w/ a 6.08 ERA in five career starts. I sense he may struggle some in his first start of the year. The Orioles have a fairly potent lineup, one which has averaged 6.3 runs per game over the last week and 4.8 rpg for the year at home. They've now scored seven or more runs in four consecutive contests. Let us not forget about the absences the Astros are dealing w/ right now. Carlos Correa is out as is relief man Will Harris. We saw the impact Harris' absence had on the team last night. Correa is obviously irreplaceable. 

Before losing last night, the Orioles had won four in a row as they'd swept the Rangers, here at home. Chris Tillman, like his counterpart McHugh, missed substantial time this year. He was out for the first month, but won his first start back (White Sox), tossing five scoreless innings on 5.3. He has not won since, a span of 11 starts, though the TSR is 4-7. Admittedly, he has not pitched well and that's reflected in the numbers. But he did look good his last time out, allowing just one run and two hits in 6 IP vs. Texas. This year's results are in stark contrast to 2016 where Tillman finished as one of the big money-earners in all of MLB (3rd in net units!). Again, I believe the O's can win here and they'll do no worse than a one run loss. 10* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)