Bryan Power Sports: Free Picks & A Handicapper Review

10* Boston (8:35 ET): After jumping out to big leads in each of the first three games, the Celtics found themselves playing from behind almost the entire time in Game 4. That was an unfortunate result on this end with Boston being my Game of the Year. Quite frankly, the Celtics should be disgusted with themselves that they aren’t at least tied with the Heat in this Eastern Conference Finals. The total points scored in this series is dead even (441-441) though four games. Now facing a “win or go home” scenario, the Celtics are the call again Friday night. 

Boston has outshot and outrebounded Miami in this series. But turnovers and second-chance opportunities have been the story as the Heat are averaging six more shot attempts per game, largely due to the fact they are forcing an average of 16 turnovers per game. In Games 2 & 4, the Heat have scored 43 points off 39 Celtics turnovers. That’s unacceptable if you are Boston. So was giving up 37 points to Tyler Herro in Game 4. But you already knew that, if you watched that game. 

Now is when I’ll remind you that Boston has been up by 14 in the 4Q of Game 1 (lost in OT), 15 in the 3Q of Game 2 (lost by 5) and then by as many as 20 in Game 3 (won). This reminds me a bit of Boston’s last series with Toronto. The four Celtics’ wins in that series were by a combined 48 points while the three losses were by a total of 11 (one coming in 2 OT and another at the buzzer). I still believe the Celtics are the better team here. Miami’s three-point shooting has gone down in every game. With the season on the line, look for Boston to take better care of the basketball tonight and improve to 12-5 ATS when off a SU loss as a favorite. (Miami just 4-9 ATS off SU win as dog). 10* Boston

10* Middle Tennessee (8:00 ET): So much for being improved! Middle Tennessee has been a disaster in the early going, getting outscored 89-14 in lopsided losses to Army (42-0) and Troy (47-14). Despite the fact I faded the Blue Raiders in that loss to Troy last week, it was shocking to see how poorly they played. Three turnovers (following four more vs. Army) and QB Asher O’Hara (3,600 total yds & 29 TDs LY) was actually benched. But as bad as things have been thus far in Murfreesboro, I can’t believe MTSU is getting this many points against UTSA.

This is the most unique C-USA opener in history. Originally, UTSA was going to face Memphis. But the Tigers had to bow out due to a COVID-19 outbreak. That left an open spot on the schedule and MTSU stepped in. This change was made just last week, giving both sides very little time to prepare for an opponent they are not that familiar with, despite being conference rivals. There have been only two all-time meetings, the most recent taking place in 2016. The fact MTSU HC Rick Stockstill is being coy about his QB situation puts UTSA in a tough spot, especially laying points.

UTSA might be 2-0, but they’ve beaten a terrible Texas State team (in double overtime) and then SF Austin (a FCS school). As bad as MTSU has looked through two games, they are still the toughest opponent UTSA has faced so far. The Blue Raiders are also desperate, which has me grabbing the points. UTSA infamously almost gave away a 31-14 lead to Texas State in the opener. I had them as they were getting 6.5 points. But now they are favored in a FBS game for just the 1st time since 2018. They are 0-4-1 ATS L5 as a favorite (vs. FBS) and are just 4-13-1 ATS L18 home games. 10* Middle Tennessee

7* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): The American League playoff field is set with all eight teams having clinched. Of course, you can count the Yankees among the field. They can no longer win their division (AL East), but still need to secure their position as a probable 4 or 5 seed for the postseason (4th being obviously preferred). Last night’s 4-1 loss to Toronto didn’t help nor has losing four of the past five games overall. But now the Yanks return home where they are a perfect 8-0 this season as a favorite of -175 to -250. Look for them to take this series opener.

The National League playoff field is far from set with four spots still up for grabs. There are six teams vying for those four spots, all separated by just 1.5 games. Among the six, Miami has arguably the “clearest path” as their magic number is down to two and all they need to do is finish second in the NL East. But their very poor -40 YTD run differential (7th worst in MLB!) tells me this is NOT a great team and this final series of the regular season is hardly an ideal matchup.

The Marlins did win yday, 4-2 in Atlanta. But they had to endure a 99-minute rain delay in the process. Now they travel up to NY and have to face the red hot J.A. Happ, who threw eight shutout innings in Boston his last time out. Over his L3 starts, Happ has a 1.40 ERA and 0.776 WHIP. Miami starter Sandy Alcantara has pitched well of late too, but I trust him less as he’s gone more than six innings just one time all year. Remember that the Yankees won 10 in a row from 9/9-9/19. Their last home loss was on September 2nd! 7* NY Yankees

10* Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5 (2:30 PM ET): Eintracht Frankfurt had to be terribly disappointed with the result from their first Bundesliga match of the 2020-21 season. Facing promoted Arminia Bielefeld, all the Die Adler could muster was a 1-1 draw. Considering how they really dominated possession, that should have been a win. This is a side that fell just four points shy of Europa League qualification last season, so turning these draws into wins is paramount. 

Meanwhile, Hertha Berlin is one of seven sides in the league that started out with a win. They downed Werder Bremen 4-1. That opponent was in total disarray from the outset, so I wouldn’t go reading too much into it. Hertha isn’t a team likely to finish near the top of the table this season. They actually finished one point behind Frankfurt last season.

While Hertha has lost just one time in its previous five home affairs, that loss occurred to Frankfurt and it was by a score of 4-1. The sides also played to a 2-2 draw in Frankfurt last season. Coming off the disappointing draw, I expect an aggressive Frankfurt team here and taking the goal line is the way to go as it’ll give us a win in case of another draw. As I stated in last week’s analysis, Frankfurt is an underrated club this season. 10* Eintracht Frankfurt