Bryan Power Sports: Free Picks & A Handicapper Review

10* Toronto (10:35 ET): It's taken some "getting used to," but I now view the Kings as one of the league's weaker teams. They currently reside in the basement of the Pacific Division (only 11 points) and have been outscored by 17 goals this season. That's the worst goal differential in the league right now. Those expecting any kind of turnaround will have to wait awhile longer as this visit from Toronto figures not to go very well considering the Maple Leafs will be looking to bounce back from a loss themselves. The ML favorite is being way undervalued here. 

It was bound to happen sooner rather than later and definitely on this challenging four-game trip. Toronto finally lost a road game on Saturday, coming up way short in a 5-1 final in Boston. The Leafs had won their first six road games to open the year and were the last unbeaten team on the road in the league. Like I just said, the road loss was bound to occur and I actually believe its a "good thing" to get it out of the way in the first game of the trip. No one wants to lose obviously, but I would have found it hard to believe to think the Leafs were going to sweep this trip. After tonight, they're in San Jose and Anaheim on Thursday and Friday, so this game sets up as the easiest of the entire trip. Toronto already beat the Kings, 4-1, back on October 15th.

The Kings are last in the league in scoring right now, averaging just over 2.0 goals per game. That presents a massive edge for the Maple Leafs, who are top five in the league in scoring as well as top seven in goals allowed. LA has scored only one goal in its last two games as they simply aren't getting the puck on net very much anymore. They are near the bottom of the league in that department, which is an issue in a game where they'll likely need to score a lot just to keep up. Meanwhile, Toronto is a perfect 4-0 this season after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. Did I mention that the Kings are also now without their top two goaltenders, leaving either Peter Budaj or the completely untested Cal Peterson to start tonight between the pipes. The Kings have already made a change behind the bench this year (coaching change), so they're all out of tricks unfortunately. 10* Toronto

8* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): Wrong place, wrong time for the Sabres, even on home ice. That's because TB is off a humiliating defeat its last time out, losing 6-4 to Ottawa as -320 home favorites. The last two times that the Lightning have been off a loss, they have rebounded by blowing out their next opponent. On October 30th, they destroyed New Jersey 8-3. Then, four days later, they won 4-1 at Montreal. In fact, they have yet to be beaten consecutive times so far this season. The Lightning still lead the Atlantic w/ 25 points and are the highest scoring team in the league. They should have little to no difficulty defeating a Buffalo team that I still think is getting too much hype. 

The Sabres have won their past two games by scoring 10 goals. But those wins came at the expense of Montreal and Vancouver, the latter occurring here at home. Tonight will obviously be a big step up in class in terms of opponent. I will admit that Buffalo has done an excellent job at getting the puck on net recently, which has led to plenty of goals scored. However, they were actually outshot by both the Habs and Canucks. Also, in each instance, the Sabres had to beyond regulation to get the two points. They won in OT and then a shootout and that's only after they tied both games late in regulation. Both of those wins could easily have been losses. Over the last three seasons, this team is 15-34 SU after scoring 4+ goals in its previous game. 

Tampa Bay is indeed tops in the league in goals per game w/ an average of 3.7. They've scored four or more in five consecutive games. Some of their biggest scoring efforts of the year have been off a loss. In the four previous games they've played off a loss, the Lightning have averaged a simply stunning 6.5 gpg, scoring 8 twice and 6 in another. So look for Sabres' goaltender Carter Hutton to be under siege tonight. I give the Lightning a big edge between the pipes w/ Andrei Vasilevskiy starting. He has a .934 save percentage on the road so far. 8* Tampa Bay

8* UNC Wilmington (7:00 ET): Yet another revenge spot! Although unlike the other two matchups in this report, this is NOT a battle of teams w/ the same nickname. It is, however, a battle of in-state rivals. UNC Greensboro won LY's meeting, 71-58, as 8.5-pt home chalk. It would appear as if the oddsmakers are giving the Spartans a bit too much "credit" out here on the road. I can only assume that has to do w/ them taking #22 LSU down to the wire in Baton Rouge over the weekend. By making 19 three-pointers in the contest, the Spartans were easily able to cover the 10-pt spread in a 97-91 loss. But I don't think they'll replicate that kind of shooting here. 

UNC Wilmington is 0-2 on the year, so they enter tonight as a desperate team. A 97-93 loss to Campbell was an auspicious start to the year, but be aware that game went into overtime. It was close the whole way. That game was on the road, so the Seahawks hoped for better in their home debut Friday vs. Stanford where they were drawing an opponent making a rare cross-country trip. Unfortunately, the Seahawks lost that game by 13 on a bad offensive night (shot just 35.2% overall). They did lead by as many as eight early, but actually went into the break down 14 thanks to a 7 1/2 minute stretch w/o a field goal. 

So you have one team, laying points on the road, coming off a historically great shooting night. Then you have a home dog coming off a poor shooting performance. I'll side with the latter here in what should be a bounce back performance. It was poor shooting that cost the Seahawks last year's meeting. But I don't see that happening again. This is more points than they were getting against Stanford, which seems crazy. This is also UNC Greensboro's third straight road game to open the year, all played within a span of a week. Good spot to fade them. 8* UNC Wilmington

10* Florida International (7:00 ET): Wisconsin-Milwaukee has started out the season quite poorly w/ losses to Boston College (by 20) and North Dakota. Expect FIU to have little sympathy for the Panthers however, as this is a revenge spot for them. It stems from a 66-51 loss last season, which took place in Milwaukee where "our" Panthers were 13-pt underdogs. This time around, it would appear that FIU has a sizable edge, though it's not being properly accounted for by the oddsmakers. I'll gladly step in and lay the short number here as the favorite should take care of business. 

It may been two clearly overmatched opponents, but FIU is certainly feeling optimistic about its chances here based on a 2-0 start. They topped 100 pts against both Webber College and Johnson & Wales, two non-board teams. They averaged 113.5 PPG on 52.3% shooting in the pair of wins. Looking ahead, it may never again be quite that easy offensively, but the Panthers should definitely find ways to score in this game. 1st year HC Jeremy Ballard, the latest to be plucked from the VCU coaching tree, walked into a great situation here by inheriting four returning starters. Offense was the primary concern coming into the year, but Ballard's boys seem well on their way to blowing past LY's production when FIU ranked 317th nationally in three-point shooting. 

FIU is also playing some defense as it held the first two opponents to just 31.1% shooting while forcing 55 turnovers! Again, I realize the teams that they played had no chance. But the performances will definitely give this team some confidence for its first "real" test of the season. Wisc-Milwaukee is shooting a dreadful 30.3% from the floor so far and managed only 17 first half pts Saturday at home vs. North Dakota. It's a bad sign when you're leaning on a transfer who only averaged 1.4 PPG last season. Wisc-Milwaukee has just three players total back from LY's sub-.500 squad, including only one starter. They are going to struggle this year. 10* Florida International

8* Memphis (7:00 ET): This looks to be too many points that LSU is laying in their first "real" test of the season. Like every other game in this package, it's also a revenge spot for the team I'm taking. Memphis, in its first year under Penny Hardaway, figures to be a lot better than they were the last couple of seasons. They won their 1st game for Hardaway, as expected, 76-61 over Tennessee Tech. But they just missed out on the cover as 16-pt favorites. I'm going to like this Tigers team more as a dog anyway, like tonight. A dreadful shooting night cost them last year against LSU. The same thing won't happen again this time. Take the points.

LSU is 2-0 having topped 90 pts in both games. But there is some cause for concern, especially at the defensive end of the floor. In a 97-91 win over UNC Greensboro over the weekend, they allowed 19 made three-pointers, the most EVER by a visiting team in Baton Rouge! Overall, the Tigers are allowing 46.4% shooting from behind the arc, which will absolutely come back to bite them if that number can't come down. Memphis is a big step up in class for them after facing SE Louisiana and UNC Greensboro. LSU is a young team as well w/ freshman accounting for more than 50% of their total pts so far. 

Memphis has a lot of freshman they're hoping to see contribute as well. The four newcomers to the program struggled against Tenn Tech, but I see their collective numbers improving after they combined to shoot just 5 of 24 in that opening game. Hardaway luckily can rely on his seniors, one of them being Mike Parks Jr, who had to miss the opener due to a back injury. I mentioned earlier that Memphis shot the ball terribly LY vs. LSY. They were just 37.3% from the field, including 4 of 22 from three-point range, in the 71-61 loss as 2-pt home dogs. This year's squad is going to do better. I'm not sure why LSU finds itself in the Top 25 this week; I barely count them among my top 50 teams in the country. 8* Memphis