Bryan Power Sports: Free Picks & A Handicapper Review

8* Utah Valley State (9:00 ET): So BYU is 6-0 and ranked #12 in the country right now. But despite that record, which includes an impressive beatdown of Oregon (in Portland), I’m not convinced the Cougars are even one of the top 25 teams in America. Yes, they proved me wrong when they went to Salt Lake City on Saturday and beat rival Utah 75-64 as one-point favorites. But they are much bigger favorites tonight at Utah Valley State and covering this spread is going to be a lot more problematic for them. 

Utah Valley State is no slouch as they bring a 6-1 SU record into this contest. Their lone loss came in the season opener, by 20 at Boise State. Since then, it’s been six straight wins, all of which have seen the Wolverines score 74 or more points. They are averaging 79.5 PPG here at home. So unless it’s some kind of unforeseen poor effort at the defensive end of the floor tonight, I see the Wolverines covering this spread pretty easily. My own power ratings say this spread should be single digits.

Coming off a win over Utah, this has the makings of a “letdown” game for BYU. Meanwhile, Utah Valley State should be incredibly fired up to be facing a “bigger” in-state foe. (The respective campuses are just five miles apart). Utah Valley already has pulled a couple upsets, one over Long Beach State and another against CBI Champion Pepperdine. An outright win here would be quite the achievement. I can’t say it’s going to happen, but the underdog will cover the generous number. 8* Utah Valley State

10* Over S Illinois/Evansville (7:00 ET): We’re gonna try with the Over here on a Southern Illinois team that has seen the Under hit in all six of its games this season. The reason being this is a new “low watermark” for an SIU O/U. The previous low was 125.0. Now that game saw them score only 47 points against Northeastern, but I have to imagine the Salukis are going to shoot better than 29.6%, which is what they did vs. Northeastern. Most of the O/U lines for SIU games this season have been north of 130.0. I see some value here. 

Similarly, Evansville has had just one O/U line lower than tonight. They went Over (119.5) in that game, which ended up being a 69-60 loss to Akron. The Purple Aces followed that up by defeating Eastern Illinois on Sunday, 70-54 as 6.5-point road favorites. Five of their last six games would have gone Over tonight’s total, the exception being a game vs. Vermont when they shot just 32.7%. Let the record show that Evansville is 5-1 to the Over the L6 times they’ve been a home dog, a role they are in tonight. 

The last time these MVC teams played was December 28th of last year and that ended up being a very high scoring game, 84-72, with Evansville (+8) getting the surprise win in Carbondale. They shot 55.3% from the floor, including 17 of 29 from three-point range. While I don’t think the Purple Aces are going to shoot the ball that well again here, look for them to make enough shots that this game does go Over the total, which will be a first for SIU this year. Evansville is shooting the ball much better at home so far. 10* Over Southern Illinois/Evansville

10* Over Rockets/Thunder (8:05 ET): You’ve got two bad teams here, meeting for the second time in three days and the fourth time this year. None of the previous three encounters have been particularly close. The home team has won all three times. It was the Rockets prevailing 102-89 on Monday, just 12 days after losing 101-89 in Oklahoma City. The teams also met in the second game of the season and that was the biggest blowout of all with the Rockets winning 124-91. In addition to every game being a blowout, all three previous meetings also stayed Under the total. In that regard, I look for a different story tonight. 

Houston has not won a road game all season. They are 0-11 SU away from home, though they have covered the number five times. But they enter Wednesday’s game not just off a win over OKC, but on a three-game SU win streak. Now that was preceded by a 15-game losing skid, so you shouldn’t get too excited. The 89 points they allowed to the Thunder on Monday was a season-low. But on the road, the Rockets are giving up 113.0 PPG. Don’t forget that two games ago, they were involved in a wild 146-143 final with Charlotte. Yes, the game went to OT. But there were still 270 combined points scored in regulation. On the road, don’t expect the same defensive effort we saw Monday. 

OKC has lost six in a row, though they had covered the spread in each of the five losses prior to going down in Houston 48 hours ago. The Thunder are obviously not a great team offensively, but you have to expect them to shoot better than the 35.6% we saw on Monday night. That game saw them go 7 for 43 (!) from three-point range, an absolutely abysmal number that will be improved upon - likely by a lot - tonight. Each of the previous three Houston-OKC encounters have seen both sides put up a ton of 3PA. I look for BOTH teams to shoot the ball better here than they did Monday (Houston was only at 41.7%). 10* Over Rockets/Thunder