Bryan Power Sports: Free Picks & A Handicapper Review

8* Seattle (10:10 ET): At first, I was a little bit leery of taking the Mariners. After all, this is a ballclub that’s clearly overachieved in 2021. Despite a -46 run differential, they are two games above .500. But a quick look at Colorado’s road record is more than enough to alleviate any apprehension I have about the home team here. There are some dreadful road records in baseball this season, but none are worse than Colorado’s absolutely pathetic 5-27 mark. Given how the money line has moved this morning, I’m taking the M’s. 

Seattle has won four straight, so they’re hot. I made the mistake of fading them both Saturday and Sunday against Tampa Bay. Both games did go to extra innings, which I guess is fine for the Mariners as they are 7-1 in games this year that go past the ninth. They also have a MLB-high 16 one-run victories. That stuff is what made me leery here. But the win streak coupled with having Chris Flexen on the mound is enough to convince me that they can easily defeat MLB’s worst road team. 

Flexen has a 9-3 TSR and has been good at home where his ERA and WHIP are 2.16 and 1.032. Last Tuesday, he threw eight scoreless innings against Minnesota, a game Seattle won 10-0. It was the second time in his last three starts at home that Flexen went 7+ innings and did not give up a run. Colorado’s Kyle Freeland has given up lots of runs as he has a 9.58 ERA in five starts. That ERA is even worse over the L3 starts (12.79) and he has a 2.447 WHIP to boot. Over the last three seasons, Freeland is 5-16 with a 6.16 ERA in 40 starts. 8* Seattle

8* Under Brewers/D’backs (9:40 ET): Arizona picked up a VERY rare win last night as they stunned Milwaukee 5-1. Not only did that victory partially avenge a four-game sweep they suffered out in Milwaukee earlier this month, it ended a heinous 17-game losing streak. How bad have things gotten in Arizona? Yesterday was their first win since June 1st. The team has won just six games since May 1st. They currently sit 32 games below .500 after losing 34 of their last 38 games. 

Given all of the above, we can’t possibly expect the D’backs to win two in a row. But I do like the Under Tuesday. Zac Gallen returned to the Arizona rotation last Thursday after missing five weeks with a forearm strain. You may recall that I took the Over in that game. Predictably, Gallen struggled in his first start back as he was facing the team with the best record in all of baseball. But I expect significant improvement here. Gallen is second on the staff in ERA and Milwaukee has the lowest team batting average in all of MLB (.212) while also ranking 29th in slugging and OPS. This is a much better matchup for Gallen. 

Because of that scuffling offense, I’m not particularly sold on the Brewers even as they are tied for the lead in their division. They have a negative run differential on the year. But I am sold on Tuesday’s starter Freddie Peralta, who is putting together a very solid 2021. His WHIP for the year is 0.822 and in three career starts vs. Arizona, he has a 0.87 ERA. Peralta has allowed 2 ER or less in seven consecutive starts. There’s been only one time all season that he’s allowed more than three. 8* Under Brewers/D’backs

10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): This is a revenge spot for the Rays, who were swept up in Boston very early in the season. Despite that - and a current six-game losing streak - I believe TB to be the better of these two AL East clubs. As many of you already know, I lean heavily on run differential and in this area the Rays are significantly more dominant than the Red Sox. They have outscored opponents by 77 runs this season, fifth best in all of MLB, while Boston is only +34. Not only is that not the best run diff in the AL East, it’s actually third, also trailing Toronto. I think things set up well for a Tampa turnaround on Tuesday. 

It was certainly quite shocking to see the Rays get swept in a four-game series out in Seattle over the weekend. I consider them to be much better than the Mariners and even took them twice (Saturday & Sunday). Both times I took TB they ended up losing in extra innings. That was in addition to dropping the series opener by one run when Seattle scored two in the bottom of the ninth. The good news though is that Boston didn’t do much better over the weekend, dropping two of three in Kansas City. So it’s only a one-half game deficit that the Rays face coming into this big series. 

The big news on Tuesday is that Wander Franco, MLB.com’s #1 rated prospect, is set to make his big league debut for the Rays. Look for Franco to have an immediate impact on a lineup that has been struggling of late. He hit .315 this year down in Durham and .332 across his entire career in the minors. Eduardo Rodriguez is the starter for Boston and while the Red Sox are 3-0 his L3 starts, Rodriguez has posted an 8.36 ERA and 1.571 WHIP. He actually hasn’t won a decision since May 7th and has allowed 4+ runs in 6 of his L7 starts. His 5.44 career ERA vs. Tampa is his third highest vs. any AL opponent. For the Rays, expect the duo of Andrew Kittredge (likely opener) and Ryan Yarbrough to get the job done. 10* Tampa Bay

8* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): I passed on Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals as both teams came in on ATS win streaks (Clippers 4-0 L4, Suns 7-0 L7) but minus big stars. I was also unsure on how to handicap the difference in rest. What ended up happening was the Suns winning 120-114 and just barely covering the four-point spread (thanks to last second free throws). After taking the “wait and see approach,” I’m fairly confident that Phoenix won’t be able to shoot 55.1% from the field again. So take the points as I don’t think the number should be higher here than it was for Game 1. 

The Clippers actually drained seven more threes compared to the Suns on Sunday. Typically that results in victory, but not for Ty Lue’s team as Phoenix was far better on its two-point attempts, going 36 of 57, which is a ridiculous 63.1%. Devin Booker had a massive game, scoring 40 points to go along with 13 rebounds and 11 assists. I’m pretty confident that Booker isn’t going to be that good again. The rest of the Suns team (sans Booker) attempted only two free throws in Game 1, which is odd. 

No Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers has meant Paul George stepping up. In the three game without Leonard, George has scored 37, 28 and 34 points. Remember that the Suns are playing without Chris Paul. The Clips are the first team in NBA history to win two series in the same postseason in which they lost the first two games. They don’t dare fall into an 0-2 hole for the third consecutive series. They’ve been good on the road so far, winning all three games in Dallas and then Game 5 in Utah. You have to think that Phoenix’s 8-0 ATS run is going to come to an end sooner rather than later. Take the points. 8* LA Clippers