Bryan Power Sports: Free Picks & A Handicapper Review

10* Under Raptors/Bucks (8:35 ET): Toronto has evened this series up as they won 120-102 Tuesday night, thereby reducing the Eastern Conference Finals to a best of three affair. Unfortunately for them, only one of the games (Game 6) will take place "North of the Border" and tonight's return to Milwaukee figures to be more of a "reality check," at least offensively. With Kawhi Leonard hurting, the Raptors' bench turned in a tremendous performance in Game 4, one that won't likely be repeated anytime soon. As you likely now, bench points tend not to "travel well." Take the Under here.

While Game 4 did just end up sneaking Over (by 6 pts), it was Game 3 that was the bigger "heartbreak" for Under bettors. That's because that game, tied 96-96 at the end of regulation, went to DOUBLE overtime. The game was still Under even after the 1st OT. It's been three straight Overs in the series going back to Game 2, but I don't see the same kind of shooting we saw from Milwaukee in Game 2 - or Toronto in Game 4 for that matter - taking place here. These are two very good defensive teams and with the stakes now raised, look for the pressure to be turned up at that end of the floor. 

Milwaukee led the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Prior to Game 4, they had allowed a FG% above 43.2 only once in the playoffs (Game 1 vs. Boston), which is very impressive. For the entire playoffs, opponents are just barely shooting above 40% from the field against the Bucks. Their points allowed predictably drops here at home. Toronto is allowing just under 100 PPG (99.9) for the playoffs, on 41.2% shooting. The Under is 7-2-1 their L10 road games. I love the Under here. 10* Under Raptors/Bucks

7* Tampa Bay (6:10 ET): This was supposed to Blake Snell going for the Rays, but both he and Charlie Morton have been pushed back a day for rest purposes. Thus, it will be an unannounced "opener" followed by Ryan Yarbrough instead. I think the Rays will do just fine though against a Cleveland team that just got swept at home for the first time in two year. The Indians' hitting has become a major concern, ranking in the bottom four in the American League in runs scored. No pitching staff in baseball has given up fewer runs than has Tampa Bay's. 

When I took Cleveland back on Monday, I thought they had a good chance to build off the "momentum" (still hate that word) from the previous series when they took three of four from Baltimore. Instead, not only did they lose Monday to the A's, they were swept. Turns out the offense that "woke up" versus the Orioles was probably just a byproduct of facing the worst staff in MLB. Oakland held the Tribe to just nine runs in three games and I simply don't see the home team turning things around here against a Tampa Bay staff that is holding opponents to 3.3 runs per game and a .217 batting average. 

Yarbrough is being recalled from Triple A where he posted a 2.14 ERA and 30-3 KW ratio. He has made five relief appearances for the big league club already. He faced Cleveland once, last season, and allowed just one run on two hits. The Rays, who beat the Dodgers yday 8-1, are 15-7 on the road and actually slightly underperfoming according to run differential. Cleveland sends Adam Plutko to the bump tonight and this will be just his second start. He allowed just a solo HR his first time out, but that was against Baltimore. It's a big step up in class here to face one of the American League's top teams. 7* Tampa Bay

8* Washington (12:10 ET): The Nationals season just keeps getting more and more disappointing as they are facing the prospect of being swept here by the Mets. Keep in mind that the Mets were floundering in their own right coming into this series. They'd been shutout in B2B games (by Miami!) last weekend, a pair of losses where they had only three hits. I'm truly confounded by Washington's poor start to the season as this was a team I had vastly improving in 2019. I know there have been injuries and the bullpen has been poor. But I still expect better out of the Nation's Capital. 

Enter Stephen Strasburg to save the day. He'll get the start Thursday afternoon and the last time he took the mound also happens to the last time the Nats won. It's the team's lone victory in the L6 games. Despite only having a 5-5 TSR, Strasburg has done "his part" this season by posting a 3.32 ERA and 0.984 WHIP. He's already faced the Mets twice in '19, the last time saw him throw 6 2/3 innings of scoreless, three-hit bal in this stadiu. Five of Strasburg's last six starts have seen him surrender 2 ER or fewer. 

The Mets will go w/ Steven Matz, who is unbeaten here at home (3-0 TSR). He only made in 3 2/3 innings his last start, which was a loss at Miami. Like Strasburg, Matz didn't allow any runs the last time he faced today's opponent. It should be noted that all six Mets' runs yday came in a stunning eighth inning rally. It was the second straight come from behind victory. Again, the Nationals are better than this. They are 71-28 in Strasburg's last 99 starts, including 16-2 if it's Game 4 of a series. 8* Washington