Bryan Power Sports: Free Picks & A Handicapper Review

10* Houston (10:10 ET): The Astros came through for me in a MAJOR way Sunday, beating the A's 9-4. That win allowed the World Champs to stay in first place in the AL West as they now have a one-game lead over Oakland. Without question, this has been the roughest stretch of the season for the 'Stros as they've dropped seven of nine, not to mention 13 of their last 21. Monday finds them facing a familiar foe as this will be the third series in less than a month w/ Seattle. Houston should be highly motivated as they head to the Pacific Northwest given they were swept by the Mariners (at home) last weekend. In terms of overachieving and underacheiving when it comes to wins and losses vs. run differential, here are your two biggest "offenders." The 75-49 Astros have a run differential of +200, meaning they've actually played to the level of an 85-win team. Meanwhile, the 71-54 Mariners have been OUTSCORED by 42 runs this season, meaning they have the win expectancy of a 58-win team. I expect those gaps to rectify themselves. Love Houston here. 

The Astros send Gerrit Cole out to the mound for Monday's opener. He was outstanding in his last start, striking out 12 (no walks), while allowing just one run on five hits in six innings. Cole did take a loss in the last Seattle series, allowing four runs in 7 1/3. That actually tied for a season-high in runs allowed (done three other times), but his two previous starts against the Mariners saw him allow a total of just three runs in 13 1/3 IP. Cole comes in w/ a 2.71 ERA and 0.983 WHIP (18-7 TSR) and has 17 quality starts to his name. As a reminder, Houston is one of the highest scoring road teams in all of baseball (5.4 rpg) and no other team comes close to their run diff on the road (+2.4 rpg). They are 60-32 their L92 games priced as road favorites of -125 to -175 on the money line. 

In typical Seattle fashion, their one win over the Dodgers over the weekend was by one run while they were outscored 23-2 in the two losses. Those kind of results are how you get to 17 games over .500 despite being outscored on the season. No team has more one-run victories (31), but they've been outscored by 73 runs in the other 94 games. Felix Hernandez rejoins the rotation here and while there was a time it would have been unfathomable to find him in this price range at Safeco Field, that time has clearly passed. King Felix's best days are clearly behind him as evidenced by a 10.53 ERA and 1.975 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he allowed 11 runs in 6 IP. Though only 4.5 games separate these teams in the AL West standings, the real gap in talent is far greater than that. 10* Houston 

8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Orioles +1.5. Both of these teams were substantial underdogs on the money line and lost accordingly. In fact, they both went down by exactly eight runs. But the O's, at least on paper, should have more of a chance here in Toronto than they did in Cleveland over the weekend. Meanwhile, this is obviously a drop in class for the Blue Jays after being swept in New York. The last two series between these AL East rivals indicate a substantial edge for the Jays (both sweeps) and all of those games did take place here, "North of the Border." Overall, Toronto is 9-1 vs. Baltimore this season. But I feel the revenge-minded O's will do no worse than a one-run loss here. Play the run line. 

It's almost hard to fathom just how truly wretched this season has bee in Baltimore. They are currently 50.5 games out of first place as well as 50 games under .500! Believe it or not, they do NOT own MLB's worst run differential though. That belongs to Kansas City at -217. (Baltimore -191). But the O's are no better than the second worst team in all of baseball and are 16-46 on the road. But I like the revenge angle and the RL here. One of their losses in Cleveland over the weekend was by one run and they also won a game. They've also won the last two starts made by tonight's pitcher Andrew Cashner and both times Cashner turned in a quality outing. He's allowed just 3 ER, on nine hits, in 14 innings of work over that time. Cashner also owns a 1.93 ERA in three previous starts vs. Toronto this season. 

The Jays really came unraveled yday w/ manager John Gibbons getting ejected, but not before getting into it w/ his own CF Kevin Pillar, who got caught making the final out in the sixth by trying to steal. This is not a great team by any measure either and the fact that they're so prohibitively favored here opens up the rare opportunity to take an additional 1.5 runs and go against them. Starter Marco Estrada is of B2B rough outings where he allowed nine runs in 12 IP, including four home runs. It's difficult to continually sweep the same opponent. Twice in a row is pretty rare, but three straight times is almost unheard of. Baltimore will win a game in this series and note that five of their nine losses to Toronto this year have come by exactly one run. 8* Run Line Baltimore