How to Use Our NBA Injury Report to Handicap Pro Basketball
If you are going to bet on the NBA, you need to be checking the injury report on a daily basis. The problem is there’s not a lot of sites out there you can trust or are too slow with updating the information.
Most will just list the player injured and what is keeping him out. That’s solid information, but there’s so much more too it. We take it a step further.
You will be able to see the day the player was sidelined. That allows you to take a quick look at how his absence has effected the play of the team. You can also use it to see if a team was hit hard with injuries at the same time or if they were spread out over a longer period.
We also note the position, so you can see if a club has been hit hard at one spot. Another feature is the perceived impact of that specific player being out.
Lastly, we show a players current status. Why? Because we don’t just remove players immediately after they return from being sidelined. This allows you to look at injuries a whole different way, as a lot of people don’t make the proper adjustments for players returning to the lineup.
Expert Betting Tips on Handicapping NBA Injuries This Season
Now, let’s take a quick look at how you can use that information to start cashing more tickets. Simply knowing who is in and who is out is going to increase your chances of winning.
The big key is accurately predicting how the oddsmakers are going to adjust the odds. Some players are going to shift the line more than others. The bigger the superstar the bigger the expected movement.
Not every player who is out of the lineup is going to shift the betting line. The biggest thing to keep in mind is the books are going to set their odds to try and take advantage of the public.
If they think the public is going to rush to bet against a team that just lost a player, they will over-adjust in their favor.
Let’s say if everyone was healthy the books had “Team A” as a 5-point favorite over “Team B”. Before the game “Team B” loses a starter (second best player). The books know the public is going to be on “Team A” given this news. While they might only think that player is worth 1-2 points on the spread, they might jump ‘Team A” up to a 9-point favorite.
I’m not saying the public will always be wrong. Sometimes the over-adjustment won’t be enough to make up for the loss of a player. For example, anytime time LeBron James sits out, it’s hard not to take the other side, regardless of the inflation.
Where you can really make your money is by focusing more on the non-superstars. The guys who do a lot of the dirty work or simply good players who don’t get the recognition. Oddsmakers typically aren’t going to do much with the line when these guys are out. This is where you can find the value going to the other direction.
This is just one step in becoming an expert NBA handicapper. There’s so much more that goes into handicapping the NBA than just what players are on the floor. You have to look at other things like rest situations and home court advantage.
Don’t have the time to break down all the angles on your own. I highly recommend letting a professional do the dirty work for you. Start building your bankroll with our premium NBA picks tonight.