NFL power rankings are a major component to NFL handicapping. The key is being able to find a ratings system you can trust. There’s a lot of people out there with opinions, who don’t really know what they are talking about.
Most people who bet on football, could come up with their own ratings. The problem is the average guy doesn’t put in the time or work to be accurate. They play right into the hand of the books and base their opinions on what the last thing they remembered.
How to Create Your Own NFL Power Rating System
For example, you see a ton of preseason rankings that look almost identical to the standings from last year. What’s crazy is these people know there’s a ton of parity at the top in pro football. Teams disappointment and come out of nowhere each year.
You also don’t want to fall into the trap of being on the same sleepers as everyone else. Mainstream media like ESPN can sway people in a big way.
The other big key is that you need to know when to adjust your rankings. You don’t want to overreact to one bad performance or be the last to jump off a sinking ship.
Don’t have the time to create and maintain your own ratings? No worries. This page is all about helping you get the information needed.
Boyd’s 2017 Pro Football Power Ratings
Below is a list of my 2017 preseason power ratings. I’m not going to list all of the factors used in my projections. As you can see, these are based entirely on where I see each team finishing in the standings this year.
For those that don’t know how these rating systems can be used to handicap the games, here’s a quick recap. If a team is ranked ahead of another, that means that team would be favored on the spread on a neutral field. That goes for any team listed below them. The bigger the gap in where I have a team ranked, the bigger the betting line.
From there you have to factor in homefield advantage. Unlike college, where you can get a wide variance, the advantage in the NFL is pretty equal. With that said there are some places like Arrowhead or CenturyLink Field that deserve a little more.
I can calculate my projected spread based off my ratings and compare that to the actual Vegas line for that game. From there it’s easy to spot the best value. Want to get started? Check out the Week 1 betting lines and 2017 win totals.
Individual Team Ranks (Projected 2017 Record)
|1||New England Patriots||12-4|
|2||Green Bay Packers||12-4|
|6||Kansas City Chiefs||10-6|
|8||New York Giants||10-6|
|15||Los Angeles Chargers||9-7|
|17||Los Angeles Rams||9-7|
|20||New Orleans Saints||8-8|
|25||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||7-9|
|31||San Francisco 49ers||2-14|
|32||New York Jets||1-15|
NFL Online Power Ranking Resources
Power ratings can be displayed in several different ways. Some will just rank the teams 1-32. Others will use a rating index and assign values to each team. There’s also sites that use their ratings to provide their own predicted outcomes.
It would be difficult, and almost useless to look through every single one of these power rankings each weekend. I suggest going through them all once, and picking out your top five. You will also want to pay attention to how each site ranks there list. Some are inverted, ranking with worst team in the league first, and the best team is ranked last.
List of Top NFL Sources
- ESPN FPI
- Jeff Sagarin – USA Today
- Sonny Moore
- CBS Sports
- Sports Illustrated
- Walter Football
- Dunkel Index
- Odds Shark
- Ken Ashby
- Pro Pigskin Index
- Vegas Insider
- Iron Rank
- AP Pro 32
- Nutshell Sports
- Dr. Kambour
- GTDS Sports
- Director of Information
- Ask the Commish
- Talisman Red
- Jeff Bihl