Nick Parsons: Sports Handicapping With Free Daily Betting Picks

This is a MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER on the UNDER in UNLV/Boise.

UNLV is 10-2, including 5-1 on the road, while Boise State is 8-4, including 5-1 on the road.

These teams played on October 18th here, and the Broncos won in a 56-31 blowout. While their first game flew well OVER the number, I think the rematch here in the Conference Title Game will be a much more defensive affair for a few different reasons.

Note as well that this is the only conference championship rematch from last season.

If history is any precedent, though, then we already know who the winner is going to be, as the Broncos have won ten straight in this series, including all four meetings in the last three years, beating UNLV 21-7 in last year's MWC Championship Game.

While they may combine for a few more points this season, I'm absolutely expecting another very tight and lower-scoring battle, as I said.

Boise State welcomes back quarterback Maddux Madsen for this one, who has been out since the November 1st game against Fresno State.

In the win over UNLV, he was efficient, finishing with 250 yards passing and two touchdowns. Madsen, overall though, has taken a step back with his offensive performance this year, entering with a pedestrian 15-to-7 TD-INT ratio. In comparison, by this time last year, he had 3,000 yards passing and a 23:6 TD:INT.

UNLV had to navigate its way here through a very difficult tiebreaker process with a few different teams, which really saw New Mexico get screwed over. Either way, the Rebels are here, but probably "LUCKY" to be here type thing.

The Rebels have no issues on offense with quarterback Anthony Colandrea, a true dual-threat QB who finished with a combined 3,600 yards of offense this year. He's responsible for 30 touchdowns himself this season.

But, UNLV is a bit one-dimensional, which will only help this aggressive Bronco's defense at home.

Boise State's offense is probably in the Top-20 in the Nation, while the Broncos' defense is Top-30.

The metrics favor the home side and their superior defense in this one. But also note that the weather is likely going to play a factor in this one as well, with rainy, damp, and possibly even foggy conditions.

Madsen's rusty and with each side looking to avoid making mistakes as well, as I believe all of these situational factors will combine and help to drive this total well UNDER the posted number once the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is an AAC CHAMPIONSHIP TOP on Tulane.

While I think the outright win is the most likely outcome for the Green Wave, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can.

North Texas enters the AAC Championship Game at 11-1 SU, including 5-0 SU on the road and 4-1 ATS away from friendly confines.

Tulane is 10-2 overall, including 6-0 SU at home and 3-3 ATS.

These teams haven't played a game against each other since October 26th, 2024, when the Green Wave won 45-37 on the road as seven-point favorites.

North Texas enters averaging 46.8 points per game, which is ranked fourth, while allowing 24.2, ranked 49th.

Tulane averages 31.3 points per game, while conceding 24.8.

The Green Wave enter off a 27-0 home win over Charlotte in their final regular season game, as they prepared for this Conference Championship matchup, while North Texas pulled away for a 52-25 win over Temple in its finale.

North Texas' quarterback Drew Mestemaker finished with 366 yards passing and three touchdowns in the victory, while Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff had 291 yards and a pair of one-yard touchdown runs in the Green Wave's final win.

Green Wave head coach Jon Sumrall has been named the head coach at Florida, but he's still expected to lead the Green Wave in the Championship game.

We have to compare the strength of schedule between these evenly matched sides, and when we do, we find that they're pretty evenly matched in that category as well.

But I think the difference right now comes on the defensive end, where North Texas has conceded a combined 49 points to Rice and Temple over its final two games, while Tulane conceded a total of 13 points in its final two victories over Temple and Charlotte.

And throw in the home field advantage and with a spot in the College Football Playoff, I'm grabbing the points and rolling with the TULANE GREEN WAVE.

Good luck, NP

This is a CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP TOP on the UNDER.

Both of these teams have played to several high-scoring games this season, including against each other back on November 15th, when Jacksonville State posted the 35-26 home upset over Kennesaw State as a 3.5-point underdog, but I believe the value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned, as I like the UNDER here in the Conference USA Championship Game.

Kennesaw State finished 9-3 SU overall, but just 3-3 SU/ATS on the road, while Jacksonville State finished 8-4 overall, including 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home.

The Owls average 31.7 points per game, which ranks 57th, while allowing 27.4, which ranks 72nd. The Gamecocks are averaging 32.9 points per game, which ranks 46th, while conceding 29.2, which ranks 87th.

Kennesaw State, though, needed double overtime to get past Liberty on the road last time out in a high-scoring 48-42 victory, but I think fatigue will now be an issue this weekend. Owls' quarterback Amari Odom threw for 240 yards and two touchdowns.

The Owls will face a Jacksonville State team that's undefeated at home through the five games and which is also off a last-second victory, hitting a field goal as time expired to win 37-34 over Western Kentucky.

Jacksonville State has been extremely adept at running the ball this year, as it's the only team in the conference to average more than 200 rushing yards per contest. Quarterback Caden Creel was 12 of 19 for 204 passing yards and two TDs, but he also ran for 143 yards and a touchdown.

One other player to keep your eye on here today for Jacksonville State is running back Cam Cook, who ranks first among FBS Players for rushing yards with 1,583.

We saw a lot of penalties from each side in their first matchup, and it's hard to see so many called again here in the Conference Championship.

With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched, and this one really does feel like a "coin toss" as far as a side is concerned.

But with so much on the line here, I think the rematch will be much more defensive overall, and so I'm on the UNDER in the Conference USA Championship Game.

Good luck, NP