Jimmy Boyd in 
There are many different strategies for winning an NCAA Tournament bracket pool. But, no one strategy covers everyone in every situation.
The strategy you’ll see leading up to the tourney is on situational and historical statistics. This can help you whether you are betting on NCAA basketball with pools, futures, or individual games.
Strategy to Help You Win NCAA Tournament Bracket Pools & Contests
For example, you should generally take teams that are favored by the Las Vegas spreads. This gives us a basic idea of how probable it is that one team will advance over the other. You’ll also see a lot of historical anecdotes about the history of the tourney, like how at least one No. 12 seed usually upsets a No. 5 seed.
Those tips are all well and good. But, what I’m more interested in is a strategy that maximizes my chances of winning the particular bracket contests I’m in. Not one that gives me the same information that everyone has access to year after year.
Number of Participants
The first variable you’ll need to account for is the size of your pool. More than anything else, this should determine your strategy for making your bracket picks. If there are between 2-30 participants in the contest you entered, your best bet is to pick the favorites. That means taking the overall tournament favorite for your champion. For each game, you should take the projected favorites.
This strategy maximizes your points. Because the number of participants is so small, it’s unlikely anyone else follows this method to the letter. In theory, it should give you the best chance of winning. I offer my bracket predictions based on these small-to-medium-size contests.
If you’re like me, you are interested in how to win pools with 30 or more participants. There is no guaranteed method to do this, but you can improve your chances of winning a large NCAA pool. And, with over 50 million Americans entering brackets, there are plenty of large pools.
In most cases, the key is picking the correct champion. The betting odds will show you who is the favorite, but those lines don’t reflect the true chances of maximizing a return on your bracket.
Using Game Theory to Maximize Your Return
Let’s assume that you will need to select the winner of the NCAA Championship in order to win your pool. Your odds of winning that contest are 1/n, with n being the approximate number of people who selected that same team. Now multiply that result by the line (converted to a percentage) on that team winning the championship. This gives you the probability of winning the pool by picking that particular team.
Our final formula is then:
(1/n) * x
where:
– n is the estimated number of people who chose a team.
– x is the probability of that team winning the tournament.
Putting it to Use
As an example, let’s say Kansas is the favorite at 5-to-1 odds. Let’s also say you are in a pool of 50,000 people, and 65% of them select Kansas as their champion. While this is always an estimate, you can assume that the four No. 1 seeds will account for around 90% of the picks for winning the championship, with the overall No. 1 seed getting the most attention.
Using our formula:
(1/32,500) * 15%
At 5-to-1, Kansas’s probability of winning the tournament is about 15%. This gives an individual entry picking Kansas a 0.00046% chance of winning the pool outright. If Kansas wins, the prize will likely be split among 32,500 people, significantly reducing the payout per winner.
Now, let’s say you pick Oklahoma, and only 1% (500 people) take them.
Oklahoma’s formula:
(1/500) * 3%
This results in a 0.006% chance of winning the pool outright if Oklahoma wins the tournament.
At first glance, Kansas has a higher individual probability of winning the pool. However, picking Oklahoma means far fewer people are sharing the prize if they win, potentially increasing your payout significantly. The trade-off is between a safer bet with lower individual payout (Kansas) versus a riskier bet with a potentially much higher payout (Oklahoma).
Conclusions
What this means is that in large pools, you are better off selecting a champion that fewer participants will pick. This increases your chance of being one of the few winners, maximizing your expected return rather than splitting the prize with a large percentage of the pool.
This doesn’t mean you should pick teams with no chance of winning, but rather the best viable team that will likely be an under-the-radar choice.
To best put this theory to work, you also need to be aware of the following:
- Be cautious of local teams with good odds. Your pool will have more people than average taking that team, making them a poor value pick.
- No. 1 seeds will always be popular. If you’re picking a top seed, consider taking the one perceived as the weakest.
- Use Vegas odds and projected spreads for rounds outside of your contrarian champion pick. The key is picking the correct winner and maximizing total points, not trying to hit every upset.
Something else I’m in is a fantasy league that involves picking individual players and scoring based on total points. I put together a draft list each year that ranks the order I would select my team.
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