Jimmy Boyd in 
Looking to win your office pool or one of those big contests online? This article is all about helping you pick a perfect bracket in 2027.
I’ve put together several March Madness tips that I’m confident will help you finish near the top of the leaderboard. I’ll cover the basic strategies to follow from the start, as well as a full guide on where the most likely upsets will take place.
Four Basic Strategies to Help You Win Your March Madness Contest
#1 – Focus on Teams Who Finished Strong
One of my favorite March Madness bracket tips is to look at how a team performed down the stretch. Momentum is everything in March. Focus on teams that surged through February and their conference tournaments. Rarely do we see teams that limped into Selection Sunday make a deep run; if they were struggling against their own conference rivals, they usually won’t survive the pressure of the Big Dance.
#2 – Look at Away Records and Winning Streaks
This is an important NCAA bracket tip that often gets overlooked. While some top seeds play closer to home in the early rounds, every tournament game is technically a neutral-site setting. Teams that proved they could win on the road during the regular season are far more “tournament-ready” than those that relied on a rowdy home-court advantage. Additionally, look for teams that have shown they can string together wins. To cut down the nets, a team must win six games in a row (seven for teams that start in the Opening Round).
#3 – Check Strength of Schedule (SOS)
Don’t get blinded by a flashy 30-2 record. You have to look at who those wins came against. Take the time to see how a team performed against Quad 1 and Top 50 opponents. If a team dominated a weak conference but went 1-5 against top-tier talent, they are a prime candidate to be upset in the first weekend.
#4 – Check in with Vegas
If you want to know who really has a shot, look at the current odds to win March Madness. The betting markets are often more accurate than the Selection Committee’s seeds. Vegas will tell you which No. 2 or No. 3 seeds are “vulnerable” and which No. 1 seeds are virtual locks for the Final Four.
How to Pick 1st Round Upsets When Filling Out Your Bracket
It’s no secret that you need some upsets sprinkled throughout your bracket to win a large pool. The key is knowing when to take a calculated risk and when to stick with the “chalk.”
A No. 1 seed has lost to a No. 16 just twice in 164 games since 1985 (UMBC in 2018 and FDU in 2023). While it’s not “impossible” anymore, picking a 16-over-1 is usually a bracket-killer. Similarly, No. 15 seeds have beaten No. 2 seeds only 11 times in 164 games since 1985, and seven of those came from 2012 to 2023, with none since. Still, you should generally avoid picking these “mega-upsets” unless you are in a massive pool and need to be truly unique.
The sweet spot for upsets is in the 5-through-12 seed range. Here is the breakdown:
- The 5 vs. 12 Matchup: This is the classic upset pick. Since 1985, No. 12 seeds have won 58 of 164 games against No. 5 seeds (35%). You should almost always have at least one No. 12 seed advancing: at least one has won in 35 of the 41 tournaments.
- The 6 vs. 11 Matchup: Statistically, a No. 11 seed pulls the upset even more often than a No. 12: 64 wins in 164 games against No. 6 seeds since 1985 (39%). These games are often closer to a 50/50 toss-up than the seeds suggest.
- The 7 vs. 10 Matchup: At least one No. 10 seed has won in 38 of the 41 tournaments since 1985 (63 wins in 164 games, 38%). Don’t be afraid to flip a coin here.
- The 8 vs. 9 Matchup: This is close to a 50/50 split; No. 9 seeds actually lead No. 8 seeds 87-77 since 1985. There is no real statistical advantage to picking the higher seed here, so look at the individual matchups and coaching.
Simple Upset Strategy
A great strategy for picking upsets early is to look ahead to the Round of 32. Look for games where you don’t think either team has a prayer of making the Sweet 16. If you really like the No. 3 seed in a region to cruise to the second weekend, that’s the perfect spot to gamble on an 11-over-6 or a 14-over-3 in that same pod.
Winning NCAA Tournament Tips: Riding Cinderella Teams & No. 1 Seeds
What about after the first round? You need to know when to let your Cinderella ride and when to call it quits. Historically, the most likely teams to pull off back-to-back upsets are those seeded 10-12. However, the “glass slipper” usually breaks quickly. Since 1985, only three teams seeded 12 or higher have made the Elite 8: Missouri in 2002, Oregon State in 2021 and Saint Peter’s in 2022. My advice? Let your Cinderellas reach the Sweet 16, but be very cautious about putting them in your Final Four.
No. 1 Seeds Don’t Go Down Early
No. 1 seeds are the best of the best for a reason. While they occasionally stumble, history tells us they dominate the later rounds. To win your pool, you should generally have at least three No. 1 seeds in your Elite 8 and at least two in your Final Four. Picking a Final Four without a No. 1 seed is a statistically losing bet: only three Final Fours since 1985 (2006, 2011 and 2023) had none, and No. 1 seeds have won 27 of the 41 titles.
