NFL Key Numbers

Posted by Jimmy Boyd - Google+

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Anyone who does any NFL betting has heard of key numbers for point spreads before. The general public knows that winning by a field goal is the most common result of an NFL game, largely due to it being a tie game as the clock winds down with the kicker being given the chance to seal the deal. If a game goes into overtime then the team is a lot more likely to just get it between the hashes and trust a field goal over going for a touchdown.

What’s really important though is just how often the key numbers occur.

We have taken a look at the last 5,760 games, spanning 22 years to come up with the exact numbers. 15.9% of the games where decided by exactly three points. That’s almost twice as common as the next number on the list. 8.77% of the games were won by exactly a touchdown and an extra point, or 7 points. The top ten most frequently occurring numbers account for more than 60% of the final scores, let’s take a look at the list.

NFL KEY NUMBERS

This information on football key numbers is surely interesting, but if you want to use it for handicapping then you are going to have to expand on it a little bit. You are going to need to know how often favorites win by those margins and when they did, how often was the spread within a half point of the key numbers?

This is why we always to recommend to clients to open up accounts at different sportsbooks so we can shop around for the best line. If you look back to your history with wagering, how many times did you lose a game by a half a point. Then there were the times when you barely covered by that half point or point and breathed a sigh of relief. Whether you are betting in Las Vegas or online, you will be able to see the lines be off by a point or more at the different sportsbooks.

Now we want to take a look when buying a half-point to get onto or off of a key number makes sense. First, let’s see what happens when buying to a key number (often called buying the “hook”) based on NFL lines and results from 1980-2011.

BUYING ONTO KEY NUMBERS

This table tells us that buying up to +3, buying down to -3, buying down to -7, buying up to +10, and buying down to -10 have historically been a smart move, when the juice is cheap enough. For example, let’s look at a spread of -3.5, buying down to -3. What the number show is that there have been 445 games with a spread of -3.5 from 1980-2011. Buying to -3 would have given you an additional 51 pushes (games that ended with that team winning by exactly 3 points) instead of the loss you would have received at -3.5. Then we look at the juice, translated into “cents” (10 cents = -10, 20 cents = -20, 25 cents = -25) and showed the profit based on 100 units per bet. What this tells us is that it is profitable to pay up to 25 cents more than the original line to buy a half of a point, e.g. if the line were -3.5 (-110) , if you could get the line at -3 (-135) or better, it would be worth buying. Now we’ll look at buying off of key numbers.

BUYING OFF OF KEY NUMBERS

This table shows what would happen if you bought off of numbers like 3 to either -2.5 or +3.5. We’ll keep 3 as the example. So, looking at the data from 1980 to 2011, 868 games had a line of 3. Now, 85 of those games landed exactly on 3, meaning if you would have bought a half point (to -2.5 on the favorite, to +3.5 on the underdog), you would have won instead of pushing your bet. Again, using 100 units per wager, we compared the results of buying points to how much it is worth to pay for them in juice. Surprisingly, there are very few situations where buying off of key numbers is profitable, but on 3 and 7 you almost always do (the only time you don’t is on 7 when your book wants more than 10 cents (or -10).

More Key Numbers

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• NFL Totals
• NBA
• College Football
• College Football Totals
• College Basketball
• Baseball Totals

About the Author: Jimmy Boyd is known for his consistency. He's a proven winner in college and pro football, college and pro basketball and pro baseball. He finished as the No. 1 ranked MLB handicapper in 2007 by earning $1,000/game bettors $50,050. He also finished as the No. 1 ranked basketball handicapper in the 2008-09 season, profiting $1,000/game bettors 38,530. His basketball plays have banked $1,000/game bettors nearly $80,000 the last five years. Check out Jimmy's premium picks for tonight!

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