Jimmy Boyd Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

3* HEAVY HITTER on Samford -175

Samford at home is one of the toughest outs in college basketball. They play a relentless style of "Buckyball" that forces you to sprint for the entire 40 minutes.

This team uses a massive rotation to keep fresh legs on the floor at all times. They currently rank in the top ten nationally in forced turnover percentage.

Chattanooga is a disciplined team, but they aren't built to handle this kind of constant, full-court pressure. The Mocs prefer a slower half-court game and struggle when the pace gets out of control.

In their recent road starts, Chattanooga has struggled to value the basketball. They are averaging nearly 16 turnovers per game away from home this season.

That is a recipe for disaster against a Samford squad that turns steals into easy points in transition. The Bulldogs thrive on chaos and making opponents feel uncomfortable from the opening tip.

Samford has been nearly unbeatable at the Pete Hanna Center. They have won 15 of their last 16 home games dating back to last season.

The Bulldogs also have a major edge from the perimeter. They are shooting over 37% as a team from three-point range, while Chattanooga’s perimeter defense has been leaky.

The Mocs have allowed opponents to shoot over 39% from deep over their last three contests. If Samford starts hitting shots early, this game could get out of hand quickly.

This is a classic clash of styles where the faster team almost always dictates the terms. Samford will force the Mocs into a high-possession track meet they are not equipped to win.

Expect Chattanooga to hang around early before the constant pressing wears their starters down in the second half. I am laying the price with the home team that owns the tempo.

I like the Samford ML (-175).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on St. Peter's/Merrimack: under 135½

St. Peter’s and Merrimack are two of the slowest teams in the country and this total is sitting way too high. Both programs pride themselves on grinding the game to a halt and forcing long possessions.

Merrimack uses a complex 2-3 zone that is notorious for burning 25 seconds off the shot clock every trip. Opponents struggle to find gaps, leading to contested, late-clock jumpers that rarely go in.

St. Peter’s plays a physical brand of man-to-man defense that consistently ranks among the best in the MAAC. They specialize in taking away the paint and making every entry pass a struggle for the opposition.

Neither team has the offensive firepower or the desire to push the tempo in transition. St. Peter’s sits near the bottom of the NCAA in adjusted tempo, and Merrimack is rarely in a hurry to score.

The Peacocks have struggled with their outside shooting all season, which plays right into the hands of the Merrimack zone. You are looking at two offenses that rank outside the top 250 in effective field goal percentage.

This is a conference matchup where the intensity on defense usually ramps up as the season progresses. Both teams are coming off a full week of rest, which typically leads to sharper defensive rotations and heavier legs on jumpers.

Expect a low-scoring battle where possessions are limited and points are at a premium. The Under has been a consistent winner for both these squads when facing disciplined defensive units.

There is no reason to expect a track meet in a game featuring two coaches who prioritize stops over fast-break points. The math just does not add up for this game to get into the 70s for either side.

I like the Under 135.5 (-110)

3* HEAVY HITTER on Fresno State +160

Fresno State catching +160 at home is the wrong price for this matchup.
The Bulldogs are a completely different team in their own gym and thrive as home underdogs.

Grand Canyon is playing their second road game in three days after a grueling conference battle on Thursday night.
The travel and fatigue are going to show up in the second half for the Antelopes.

Fresno State’s defense is designed to kill the high-tempo rhythm that Grand Canyon relies on.
The Bulldogs rank in the top 50 nationally in effective field goal percentage defense when playing on their home floor.

They force teams into deep shot-clock situations and contested jumpers.
Grand Canyon has struggled lately when they cannot get easy points in transition.

Fresno State also holds a significant edge at the free-throw line in this building.
The Antelopes have been prone to high turnover rates when facing aggressive ball pressure on the road.

The Bulldogs have covered the spread in five of their last six games as a betting underdog.
The market is still overvaluing Grand Canyon based on their name brand and early-season record.

This is a perfect situational spot to fade a tired favorite in a loud environment.
The Bulldogs have the size inside to neutralize the Antelopes' second-chance scoring opportunities.

Expect a low-scoring, physical grind that favors the home team in the final minutes.
Take the plus money with the side that has more gas in the tank and the home-court advantage.

I like the Fresno State ML (+160).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Weber State +8

Weber State is catching too many points in a high-stakes rivalry spot on Saturday night. Montana State is currently riding a six-game home winning streak, which has forced this spread to an inflated number.

The Bobcats looked sharp against Idaho State on Thursday, but they are stepping up in class against a potent Weber State offense. The Wildcats hold a significant advantage on the boards that will likely decide the outcome of this game.

Weber State averages nearly 37 rebounds per game compared to just 30 for the Bobcats. Dominating the glass will limit second-chance opportunities for Montana State and keep the Wildcats in control of the pace.

Weber State is the more efficient scoring team in this matchup. They put up nearly 84 points per night and feature multiple playmakers who can create their own shots late in the shot clock.

Tijan Saine and Edwin Suarez lead a veteran roster that has the experience to handle the hostile environment in Bozeman. Both teams are fully healthy with no major injuries reported, so we are seeing the best versions of these rosters tonight.

Montana State boasts the best NET ranking in the Big Sky, but they have shown vulnerabilities on the defensive end. They allow over 70 points per game and often struggle to put away opponents who can match their intensity.

Weber State has the physicality in the paint to exploit Montana State's lack of interior depth. This game marks the end of a grueling road stretch for the Wildcats after playing in Missoula on Thursday night.

While travel is a factor, the "Battle of the Cats" always brings out the best in both programs. Historical trends favor the underdog in this rivalry when the spread climbs toward double digits.

The Wildcats have the scoring power and the rebounding edge to turn this into a forty-minute fight. I expect them to play with high energy as they look to erase the taste of their mid-week loss to Montana.

I like the Weber State +8.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Duquesne -5

Duquesne is the much stronger side in this matchup and the line is giving way too much credit to the home floor.
Loyola-Chicago is currently in a tailspin with six straight losses and no clear path out of the basement.

The Ramblers are dealing with a massive injury crisis that has gutted their rotation at the worst possible time.
Key contributors Xavier Amos and Justin Moore are both sidelined, leaving the offense without its primary playmakers.

Loyola has failed to protect Gentile Arena all season and currently holds a dismal 3-9 record on their home court.
Duquesne brings a level of physicality and toughness on the interior that the Ramblers simply cannot match.

The Dukes are relentless on the glass and recently pulled down 17 offensive rebounds in a single game.
That extra effort leads to second-chance points that will break a depleted Loyola defense by the second half.

Jimmie Williams is playing at an elite level right now and is coming off a massive 28-point performance.
He will be the best player on the floor and should have his way with a very thin Loyola backcourt.

Loyola has failed to cover the spread in five straight games because they cannot find consistent scoring.
They are turning the ball over too often and giving up easy transition buckets to disciplined teams like Duquesne.

The Dukes won the last meeting between these two by 13 points and the roster gap has only widened since then.
Expect Duquesne to pull away late as their depth and rebounding advantage wear down the shorthanded Ramblers.

Bet Duquesne -5 (-105)

3* HEAVY HITTER on Monmouth/Campbell: under 149½

The total for this Monmouth and Campbell matchup is sitting too high at 149.5.
Campbell is the main reason this game will struggle to reach the 150-point mark.

The Fighting Camels play at a snail's pace and rank near the bottom of the country in adjusted tempo.
They look to milk the shot clock on every possession and force teams into long half-court grinds.

Monmouth wants to run, but they rarely get their way against this disciplined defense.
The Hawks have shown major offensive trouble when playing away from home this season.

Their shooting efficiency takes a big dip on the road.
They especially struggle when they cannot get easy buckets in transition.

Campbell excels at stopping the break and limits secondary scoring chances.
This noon tip-off also works in favor of the Under.

Both teams played conference games on Thursday night and are dealing with a short rest window.
Early starts after a quick turnaround often lead to sluggish starts and bad shooting.

The legs usually are not there for a high-scoring track meet in these early Saturday spots.
Monmouth relies on getting to the free-throw line, but Campbell is disciplined.

The Camels do a great job of defending without fouling.
In a half-court battle, there simply are not enough possessions to clear this number.

Expect a lot of late-shot-clock heaves and contested jumpers.
The value is clearly on the defensive side of the ball today.

Bet Under 149.5.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Virginia Tech/Louisville: over 159

Louisville is playing at one of the fastest tempos in the country this season.
They look to push the ball after every defensive rebound and every made basket.

Virginia Tech usually prefers a slower pace, but they are elite at punishing aggressive defenses.
The Hokies have the ball movement and spacing to thrive when the game opens up.

Louisville’s defensive transition has been a major liability in conference play.
They are allowing opponents to shoot a high percentage because they struggle to get set in time.

Virginia Tech is currently ranked in the top 30 nationally in three-point shooting efficiency.
They will get plenty of clean looks against a Louisville team that consistently gambles for steals.

The Cardinals are averaging over 82 points per game at home this month.
Their offensive rating climbs significantly when they can force a track meet in the open court.

Virginia Tech will not shy away from a shootout if that is how the game develops.
They have shown they can score in bunches when their veteran guards get hot from the perimeter.

The over has cashed in five of the last seven meetings between these two programs.
This total is sitting too low for two teams that prioritize offensive efficiency over defensive stops.

We are looking at a game with a high volume of possessions and plenty of fast-break opportunities.
Expect both teams to flirt with the 80-point mark before the final whistle.

The late-game situation should also help push this over the total.
Both teams are likely to trade free throws in a close game that features very little interior defense.

I like the Over 159.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Kansas -175

Kansas comes into Manhattan as the far superior team despite the rivalry atmosphere. The Jayhawks are 4-2 in Big 12 play and riding a three-game win streak.

Kansas State is reeling at 1-5 in the conference. Their only win was a narrow three-point victory over a bottom-tier Utah squad earlier this week.

The Wildcats are in serious trouble without their top outside threat. Sharp-shooter Abdi Bashir is out for at least a month after foot surgery for a stress fracture.

Bashir leads the team in made three-pointers and is their most consistent offensive weapon. Without his spacing, K-State will struggle to crack an elite Kansas defense.

The Jayhawks rank sixth nationally in field goal percentage defense. They also lead the Big 12 in blocked shots, averaging over six per contest.

Flory Bidunga anchors the paint and will make life miserable for K-State's interior scorers. Kansas also holds a massive edge in rebounding margin and second-chance points.

Darryn Peterson is questionable with an ankle sprain, but he finished the Colorado game and has had three days to recover. Even if he is limited, Tre White is playing at an All-Big 12 level.

White has posted five double-doubles this season and is coming off a 15-rebound performance. Kansas has the depth to overcome one injury; K-State does not.

The Jayhawks have lost three straight at Bramlage Coliseum and are hungry for revenge. Bill Self has this team rounding into championship form while K-State is trending toward the bottom of the standings.

Expect the Jayhawks to dominate the glass and force the Wildcats into low-percentage looks all night. The talent gap here is much wider than the moneyline suggests.

I like the Kansas ML (-175).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Bradley -5½

Bradley is a different animal when they play at Carver Arena. They come into this matchup with a massive home-court advantage and all the momentum.

The Braves have won five straight games in Peoria. They just took down a very solid Indiana State squad on Wednesday night.

Illinois-Chicago is a mediocre 10-10 team that has not found its footing on the road in conference play. The Flames are turning the ball over too much and Bradley is exactly the type of team to exploit that.

The Braves play a very disciplined style of basketball and rarely beat themselves. They rank near the top of the MVC in defensive efficiency and they do not give up easy buckets in the paint.

UIC relies far too much on their outside shooting to keep games close. They are hitting less than 32% from deep on the road which is a recipe for disaster in this building.

Bradley’s size and length on the perimeter will make life miserable for the UIC guards. The Braves also have a clear edge on the boards and should win the battle for second-chance points easily.

The Braves are 12-2 this season when they are the betting favorite. They have a knack for pulling away in the second half when opponents start to wear down.

Expect Bradley to dictate the pace from the opening tip. This line is too short for a team that has been dominant at home all season.

I like the Bradley -5.5 (-112).

1* Free Pick on Rhode Island +120

Rhode Island is a live home dog today. They just grabbed a massive one-point road win at Richmond on Wednesday and have all the momentum.

That victory proves the Rams are finally playing with the confidence Archie Miller expected. Coming back to the Ryan Center is a huge advantage for this group.

George Mason is having a historic season at 18-1, but they are due for a letdown. Winning on the road in the A-10 is never as easy as the records suggest.

The Patriots won the first meeting by 11 points earlier this month. However, they caught Rhode Island at a low point, and this is a classic revenge spot.

Rhode Island’s defense is their calling card. They rank second in the conference in steals and force over 14 turnovers per game.

Tyler Cochran is a nightmare for opposing ball-handlers. He ranks third in the country in steals and will disrupt Mason’s offensive rhythm all afternoon.

George Mason is also dealing with some key absences in their rotation. Brayden O'Connor remains out with a foot injury, which thins their backcourt depth.

Rhode Island’s Jonah Hinton is the most dangerous shooter on the floor. He leads the league in three-pointers made and can heat up fast in his home gym.

The Rams are finally finding their identity at the right time. Their interior defense will make things very difficult for Mason’s Riley Allenspach in the paint.

We are getting a plus-money price on a home team that matches up well defensively. The value is on the outright win in a building where the Patriots often struggle.

I like the Rhode Island ML (+120)

5* NO BRAINER on UC San Diego -140

UC San Diego is the most dangerous home team in the Big West.
They have turned LionTree Arena into a fortress with a 32-7 record in La Jolla over the last two seasons.

This is a brutal schedule spot for Cal-Irvine.
The Anteaters are playing their fourth consecutive conference road game tonight.

That much travel catches up to a team's legs eventually.
Irvine won at Riverside on Thursday, but they are walking into a hornets' nest against a rested Tritons squad.

UC San Diego has the perimeter shooting to negate Irvine’s interior size.
Leo Beath and Alex Chaikin combined for 34 points in their last outing and they thrive when given space.

Irvine relies on Kyle Evans to protect the rim, but he can't block shots from the three-point line.
The Tritons just knocked down 11 triples on Thursday and their offensive spacing is elite.

UCSD also has a massive edge in ball security.
They rank near the top of the conference in turnover rate and won’t give Irvine any easy transition points.

The Tritons are coming off a dominant 21-point road win and have all the momentum right now.
They are 15-5 on the year and playing like a team that wants the regular-season title.

Expect the home crowd to be a major factor in this late Saturday tip-off.
Irvine’s fatigue will show up in the final ten minutes when those tired legs start making the jumpers fall short.

Take the better shooting team in a superior rest situation.
The Tritons are the sharp side here.

Bet UC San Diego ML (-140).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Jazz +7½

Miami is gassed at the end of a long road trip and the scheduling gods aren't doing them any favors.
They just dropped a winnable game in Portland on Thursday and now have to face the altitude in Salt Lake City.

The Heat are playing without Tyler Herro, who stayed home to treat a rib injury.
Losing his 20 points and elite floor spacing makes this offense incredibly easy for the Jazz to defend.

Davion Mitchell is also sidelined with a shoulder injury, stripping away Miami's best point-of-attack defender.
With Jaime Jaquez Jr. also banged up, the Heat bench is essentially non-existent for this matchup.

Utah has its own issues with Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler out of the lineup.
However, the betting market has overreacted to those absences by hanging a massive 7.5-point number.

The Jazz still have Collin Sexton and a rotation of young, hungry guards to pressure a tired Miami backcourt.
Utah plays with a much faster tempo at home and will look to run the Heat out of the gym.

Miami hasn't won consecutive games all month and they struggle to pull away from anyone on the road.
They want to play a slow, half-court game, but they don't have the legs to keep up for 48 minutes.

The Jazz are a proud home team that thrives in this underdog role when the public counts them out.
Expect a high-energy performance from the Utah youngsters against a Miami squad looking forward to the flight home.

This game will be a sloppy back-and-forth affair that comes down to the final few minutes.
Grabbing three possessions with a rested home dog against a depleted road favorite is the only way to play this.

I like the Jazz +7.5 (-115)

5* NO BRAINER on Wolves -5½

Golden State is limping into Minnesota with a roster that looks more like a hospital ward than an NBA team. They lost Jimmy Butler for the season and now Jonathan Kuminga is hobbled after taking a nasty fall in Dallas.

The Warriors have been a nightmare for bettors in this spot, posting a 1-5 record against the spread as an underdog of five points or more. Minnesota has the massive size advantage to punish a thin Golden State frontcourt that ranks near the bottom of the league in rebounding.

Rudy Gobert is back to full strength and will protect the rim against a Golden State offense that is over-reliant on the three-point shot. The Wolves rank third in the league in scoring and possess the fourth-best shooting percentage from beyond the arc.

Even if Julius Randle sits with foot soreness, the Wolves have elite depth with Naz Reid ready to step into a starting role. Minnesota already beat the Warriors by seven points on the road this season and now they get them at home on tired legs.

This is the third road game in five nights for Golden State and the fatigue is starting to show in their defensive rotations. Anthony Edwards is averaging nearly 30 points a game and has the athletic edge over every defender Steve Kerr has left.

Minnesota is looking to snap a short losing skid and this is the perfect get-right spot against a shell of a Warriors team. Expect the Wolves to dominate the paint and pull away for a double-digit win at the Target Center.

I like the Wolves -5.5.