Jimmy Boyd

Free Pick on Auburn + 

I think we are seeing some great value here with a desperate Auburn team catching points at home against an overrated LSU team that shouldn't be favored on the road against a SEC West opponent. Auburn is getting zero love right now, as they are just 1-2 after their first 3 games, but let's not overlook who they have lost to. Clemson and Texas A&M are two very good teams, who are outstanding on the defensive side of the ball, especially when it comes to stopping the run.

Now I know LSU has a solid defense, but I think it's a bit overrated given they have played two games against Jacksonville State and Mississippi State. We have already seen LSU go on the road and lose to Wisconsin and the Badgers aren't anything close to as good as Auburn on the offensive side of the ball. 

I know Auburn's defense didn't play great last week against Texas A&M, but that's a difficult offense to stop, as they can beat you with both the run and the pass. LSU doesn't offer that same balance. While Etling has provided a spark in the passing game after replacing Harris, he is still limited and will be facing a pissed off and talented Auburn defense. I look for Auburn's defense to come out with a chip on their shoulder after letting Fournette and LSU to rush for 411 yards and 5 touchdowns (only 74 yards passing) in last year's 45-21 loss in Death Valley. 

Keep in mind the home team has had a massive edge in this series. The home team has won each of the last 3 meetings by at least 14 points, including Auburn's 41-7 win over LSU in the Tigers last visit to Jordan-Hare back in 2014. You can go back even further and see the home team has won 6 of the last 7 all by at least a touchdown. 

It's also worth noting that LSU is just 9-23 ATS under Les Miles after playing two straight at home and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and 7-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss at home. Take Auburn! 

4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Blowout on Boise State -

I have no problem laying this double-digit spread on the Broncos Saturday at Oregon State. Boise State is loaded once again, while Oregon State is still in rebuilding mode. The Broncos did fail to cover their last game at home against Washington State, winning by just 3-points (31-28) as a 13-point favorite. The thing to keep in mind is that they were up 24-7 early in the 3rd quarter and 31-14 in the 4th quarter of that game. Washington State is a lot better than Oregon State and unlike the Beavers are equipped to play from behind with their ability to play at a fast pace and sling it through the air. 

Almost letting that one slip away should work in our favor, as it should have allowed head coach Bryan Harsin to have his players full attention in practice. Speaking of practice, Boise State has had two full weeks to prepare for this game. Harsin coached teams are 6-1 off a bye and that's a sign of a coach who really benefits from the extra time to prepare for an opponent. Keep in mind the Broncos are fighting to make a big bowl and whipping up on a Power 5 team will definitely help, even if it is Oregon State. 

The Beavers lost their opener 23-30 at Minnesota. While they covered the 13-point spread, I though Minnesota was getting way to much respect in that game. Oregon State got an early bye after that game and returned to host Idaho State. They won the game 37-7, but it was far from a dominant effort. The Beavers only outgained Idaho State by 55 yards, benefiting big time from 5 Bengals turnovers That's the same Idaho State team that lost 56-7 at Colorado, totaling a mere 96 yards of offense for the entire game (outgained by more than 500 yards). 

Last year Boise State played Idaho State in non-conference play and beat them 52-0, outgaining them by 300 yards. They also beat Washington out of the Pac-12, who absolutely destroyed Oregon State 52-7 at Reser Stadium. I know the Beavers are a better team than last year, but it's only marginally better. This is a huge step up in competition from what they have played in their first two games and I just think we are catching a decent number with the Beavers looking about as good as they could have in their first two games. 

I just see a major mismatch in talent in this one and a well-prepared Boise State team that isn't going to take this game lightly. Let's also not overlook the fact that Oregon State has had a miserable time covering the spread at home, going just 3-11 over the last 3 seasons. Broncos have been a great team to back off a non-cover, as they are 30-16 ATS in their last 46 after failing to cover their last game and are winning in this spot by an average of more than 2 touchdowns. Take Boise State! 

4* NCAAF Week 4 Vegas Line Mistake on Vanderbilt +

The fact that Vanderbilt just got annihilated last week at Georgia Tech as a 6-point dog, is going to have the betting public wanting nothing to do with this team. On the flip side, Western Kentucky is a team the public has fallen in love with of late. The Hilltoppers went 9-5 ATS last year in route to a 12-2 season. They played Alabama tough on the road and have won each of their other two games against Rice and Miami (OH). 

I just think WKU is way overvalued in this spot. This is not the same caliber a team as last year, as they lost their all-time leading passer in Brad Doughty, who ended his career with 4,289 yards more than the next best player on the all-time list. The offense isn't playing as fast as they were last year and I think they are going to struggle against a pissed off Vanderbilt defense. 

The Commodores might not appear to be a great defensive team after giving up 38 points and over 500 yards last week to Georgia Tech, but it's not easy preparing for the triple-option, especially for a team like Vanderbilt, who doesn't have a lot of previous experience against that style of offense. 

Those that have watched WKU, know they are a team that likes to throw the ball a lot. A big part of that is they can't run the ball. The Hilltoppers are only averaging 2.9 yards/carry on the ground and that's against teams who are allowing 4.2 yards/carry on average. This plays right into the strength of Vanderbilt's defense, which has a lot of talent in the secondary. 

Let's not forget the Commodores kept an even more explosive WKU offense in check last year, limiting the Hilltoppers to just 14 points and 247 total yards (only 209 passing). I know Vanderbilt's offense isn't anything to write home about, but they did put up 47 points against Middle Tennessee and WKU is far from dominant on that side of the ball. 

Not only is Vanderbilt playing with revenge, but they will have a chip on their shoulder after their poor showing last week. I have a lot of trust in their head coach Derek Mason and I think he has his team ready to roll on Saturday. The Commodores are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games aoff a road loss and 8-0 in their last 8 road games after getting outrushed by 200 or more yards in their previous game. Take Vanderbilt! 

5* NCAAF Big 12 Game of the Year on Oklahoma State +

I think we are getting exceptional value here on the Cowboys catching over a touchdown against what I think is a very overrated Baylor team. Oklahoma State was ranked in the Top 25 before a heartbreaking loss to Central Michigan at home. A game they should have won outright had it not been for a blown call in the final seconds that gave Central Michigan one last chance. It still didn't look good that the Cowboys were in a dogfight against the Chippewas, but that Central Michigan team is one of the better small-conference schools out there. 

I was really impressed with how Oklahoma State bounced back from that loss and defeated a very good Pitt team at home, when they could have easily come out demoralized. I look for them to carry over that momentum in a huge revenge spot against the Bears. Last year, Baylor went into Stillwater and beat the Cowboys 45-35, putting an end to Oklahoma State's perfect 10-0 start to the season. Keep in mind the Cowboys brought back 17 starters from that team, while Baylor only returned 10 and are not the same caliber a team without Art Briles at head coach. 

Once again the Bears have opened up the season with a cupcake schedule. Their first 3 games were against Northwestern State, SMU and Rice. Baylor beat Rice 38-10, which is actually not that great considering Rice lost to WKU 46-14 and Army 31-14. The win over SMU is also not that great, as the Mustangs were without star senior quarterback Matt Davis. Even then they went into the half tied 6-6 with SMU. 

I just haven't been impressed with the Baylor offense without Grobe overlooking the operations. Starting quarterback Seth Russell just doesn't look like the same player coming off a broken neck suffered last season. Just look at the production. Baylor has scored 55, 40 and 38 points in their first 3 games. In comparison to last year when they scored 56, 66 and 70 in their first 3 against SMU, Lamar and Rice. I just still think we are seeing a line here based off what Baylor has done in the past and not the team taking the field in 2016. It certainly seems that way with the Bears starting out 0-3 ATS. 

Oklahoma State's has the offensive fire-power to not only keep this came close, but to win this game outright. The Cowboys are averaging 44.3 ppg and are torching teams through the air. Oklahoma State is averaging 359 passing yards, which is 110 more yards than what their opponents are giving up on average. To give you an idea of the teams Baylor has faced, their opponents on average are only putting 145 ypg on the ground and 138 ypg through the air. 

Lastly, we have a huge system in play backing the Cowboys. Road underdogs with 8 or more offensive starters returning, including the QB, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are 40-14 (74%) ATS over the last 5 seasons in the first month of the season. Take Oklahoma State! 

4* NCAAF Situational Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +

The betting public loves Alabama so much and simply can't help themselves, even when it's clearly a horrible spot to back the Crimson Tide. That's exactly what we have here with Alabama laying a ridiculous 44 points against a Kent State team that most will see as having no business even being on the same field. 

What you have to realize here is that this is an awful spot for Alabama. They know they can come into this game and win comfortably playing their "C" game. Sitting at No. 1 in the poll, they also have no incentive to blowout the opponent. On top of that, this is a massive letdown spot. Alabama is coming off an emotional win at Ole Miss, where they had to rally from a 24-3 deficit and hold on to beat the Rebels 48-43. 

You also have to look back over the years and realize that Saban and the Crimson Tide don't cover these big numbers often. This is also a team that Saban isn't going to want to rub it in on. He played his college football at Kent State back in the 70's and when the lead is comfortable he'll call of the dogs and bring in the subs. I look for a very vanilla offense that just does what it needs to do. I actually think given how much they have struggled to run the ball in their first 3 games (by their standards), that's going to be a primary focus in this contest. That's going to keep the clock moving and plays into the strength of the Kent State defense, which is only giving up 3.2 yards/carry (only allowed 150 rushing yards to Penn State). 

Alabama is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a losing record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. It's also worth pointing out that Kent State is a very experienced team, as they brought back 18 starters from last year. That sets them up in a very profitable situation, as underdogs of 31.5 or more points who have 17 or more returning starters are 49-20 (71%) ATS since 1992. Take Kent State! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total No Brainer on Wisconsin/Michigan St UNDER

It's not very often we see these low totals in today's college football, but it's for good reason in Saturday's Big Ten showdown between No. 11 Wisconsin and No. 8 Michigan State. Both of these teams are really good on the defensive side of the ball and have offenses built around running the football and controlling the time of possession to keep their defenses fresh. 

This one has a defensive battle written all over it, as I could easily see this being a 17-13 type of game. I know Michigan State put up 38 points last week against what most people perceived to be a very good Notre Dame team, but that Irish defense is not very good and had already given up a huge number to Texas. The Spartans also benefited in that game from 3 Notre Dame turnovers, two scoring drives of less than 40 yards. 

They simply aren't going to be able to move the ball with that kind of success against the Badgers. Wisconsin held LSU to just 14 points and 257 yards of total offense in their opener. The next week they held Akron to 10 points and 224 yards. Their last game against Georgia State, saw them allow 17 points but only 299 total yards. That's with an offense that has struggled to stay on the field. They matchup well with Michigan State, as the Spartans strenght is their running game and that's what Wisconsin's defense is built to stop. Almost no one is giving Wisconsin a chance in this game, which only adds more fuel to the fire for this Badgers defense. 

Michigan State's offense won't be the only ones struggling. The Spartans are alway strong defensively under Dantonio and this year looks to be no different. They really did a number on the Irish last week. I know Note Dame put up 28 points, but 21 of those came after the Spartans built up a comfortable 36-7 lead. Wisconsin is playing a backup quarterback and without their best player in running back Corey Clement. They are going to try and grind out the clock and play it safe on offense with a lot of runs and hope the defense gives them a chance to win this game late.

UNDER is 8-0 in the Badgers last 8 after 2 straight games where they held 34 or more minutes of possession and 24 or more first downs. It's also 6-0 in their last 6 after playing their last two games at home, 11-3 in their last 14 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing and 5-1 in their last 6 against a team with a winning record. UNDER is 7-3 in the Spartans last 10 after they played a game with 450 or more total yards. Take the UNDER!