Kyle Hunter Free Sports Picks & Handicapping Review

*3 Star Play Under* The San Antonio Spurs defense has been much better in recent weeks. The Spurs rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 12 games. San Antonio ranks 23rd in tempo in that period as well, so they are slowing things down. 

Brad Stevens was very upset with Boston's defensive effort in their last game, and you have to think they work harder on that end in this game. The Celtics have key players banged up that could slow the offense too. Jayson Tatum and Al Horford will either play at less than 100% or miss this game.

Sunday has been the best day for unders in the NBA in the long run, and it isn't even close. This is a high total with two teams who have plenty to play for here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Indiana Pacers rank second worst in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last ten games. Indiana also ranks 23rd in tempo. 

The Nuggets rank 28th in tempo, and Denver's defense is clearly better than it was a year ago. The under is 13-3 in Denver's last 16 road games.

A game between two good teams at this time of the season is a good under system in the past 15 years. This game means plenty to both teams.

Sunday has been the single best day to bet unders in the NBA by a wide margin. This is a Sunday afternoon contest.

The under is 7-0 in the Nuggets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in the Pacers last 5 following a loss by 10 points or more. A 25-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Virginia Tech* The Virginia Tech Hokies got Justin Robinson back for the first time in 12 games on Friday night. Robinson didn't play up to his normal standards from before his injury, but he said he felt better than expected during the game. That was a nice game for Robinson to get back up to game speed. Virginia Tech coasted past St. Louis even without a big night from Robinson.

Liberty was down 10 points to Mississippi State with around 6 minutes left before storming to a comeback upset win over the Bulldogs on Friday night. Liberty is a quality team, but they are at a clear disadvantage in talent against Virginia Tech. 

These two teams played in an exhibition at the beginning of the season. Virginia Tech won that game on a neutral floor by a score of 86-70. The Hokies outrebounded the Flames 39-18 in that game. 

Liberty picked up the program's first ever NCAA Tournament victory just two days ago. That was their huge game. Virginia Tech has much bigger things on its mind. I think Virginia Tech is a top 10 or 12 team in the country with a healthy Justin Robinson.

This is a public/sharp split, with the sharps on Virginia Tech. 

Liberty has only beaten two teams in the top 100 in KenPom's rankings this year. Lipscomb, who they beat twice, and then Mississippi State. They lost by 10 at Georgetown and were beaten by 9 against Alabama.

I'll lay the points.

Take Virginia Tech. 

*4 Star Play on Oregon* The Oregon Ducks have played great basketball in the past month. Dana Altman's team has a much higher upside than does UC Irvine.

UC Irvine is a great story. Russell Turner is a good coach. UC Irvine plays in a very weak league. The Big West Conference is a lot weaker than the PAC 12, even this year. 

UC Irvine has been pretty good on offense against man defenses, but against zones they have been below average. They rank in the 47th percentile in the country against zones. Oregon is going to throw some different looks at them here, and one of them will be a zone as well as a zone press.

The darlings of the first round don't do well in the second round of the NCAA Tournament in past history. Just taking favorites not getting much love has been a tremendous system in the Round of 32.

Take Oregon here as a fade of the public.

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars rank first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Ohio State ranks 21st in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Houston ranks 252nd in the nation in tempo. Ohio State is 277th in the nation in tempo. Both Kelvin Sampson and Chris Holtmann generally prefer to play at a slow pace. 

Ohio State doesn't have much offensive firepower, and I would assume their game plan is to make sure this is a halfcourt game.

Both teams are far better at defense than offense, and this is a game that decides who gets to the Sweet 16. There is clearly plenty of incentive to work extremely hard on defense. 

In a regular setting, I think 130 is a fair number for the total here. In a game like this that means much more, I think this total should be in the 120's.

The under is 6-0-1 in Houston's last 7 neutral site games.

Take the under.