Kyle Hunter

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Mets won big as an underdog on Friday night. I see value on them again Saturday. 

San Francisco arrived in the middle of the night after their game against Atlanta on Thursday night. The Giants flew home to San Francisco, and they got a short night of sleep. That was following a long road trip of eight games. Often former players say the second game back from a long trip in a different time zone is even tougher than the first as they try to adjust. This still isn't a good spot for the Giants.

Johnny Cueto is giving up way more hard contact this year, and he's paying for it. Cueto has a 4.42 ERA and a 4.44 FIP on the season. He's giving up the long ball far more often than he has in the past. 

Jacob Degrom has had some bad luck this year. Degrom has an amazing swinging strike rate of 14.4%, so he's fooling a lot of batters. He has been spectacular in his last couple games. Degrom has allowed one run in his last 17 innings pitched. 

Degrom is 16-4 in his career in day games. He has a spectacular 1.71 ERA in those games. 

Take the New York Mets. 

*3 Star Play Over* I have to play the over here. Homer Bailey is making his first big league start after a major injury, and I don't think he'll pitch deep into the game. The Reds bullpen is gassed right now, and they have 5.47 FIP in the last two weeks. 

Joe Ross starts for the Nationals. He's really inconsistent and he usually doesn't pitch deep into the game either. The Nationals have a 5.34 FIP in the last two week.

These are definitely two of the worst bullpens in baseball, and they should be in the game for quite a few innings. 

The Reds offense has been underrated this year, and the Nationals offense has been the most consistent in the NL.

Paul Emmel is the umpire behind the plate. The over is 8-5 in his games this year. The over was 14-13 in his games last year. The over was 18-14 in his games in 2015. The over was 18-10 in his games behind the plate in 2014. Some impressive consistency to the over from him.

A 91 degree temperature at gametime is helpful here as well.

The over is 5-0 in the Reds last 5 vs. a righty. The over is 4-0 in the Nationals last 4 home games. The over is 7-0-1 in Ross' last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in Ross' last 4 starts following a quality start. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The Detroit Tigers have been pure fade material of late. Detroit has arguably the worst bullpen in baseball, and now they are starting one of the very worst starting pitchers in baseball for this one in Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has been in the bullpen getting bashed most of the year. His hard contact allowed percentage is a ridiculously high 42.7%. If that isn't bad enough, Sanchez's control has become a major problem (and that poor control in and out of the zone leads to those hard hit balls obviously).

Dinelson Lamet is a guy with a high upside for San Diego. He has great strikeout potential. Lamet has punched out more than 10 batters per nine innings at a consistent rate throughout multiple levels of baseball. This Tigers lineup will be without a key hitter in Victor Martinez. Detroit loses a bat also from the NL rules, and Detroit is a team playing with no confidence right now.

The Padres are 18-18 at home this year, and while they aren't a good team, they play hard. They're up against a terrible pitching combination of Sanchez and the Tigers pen here. 

Take San Diego.