Matt Fargo Sports Handicapper Review & Free Picks

This is a play on the GEORGE MASON PATRIOTS for our Monday Free Play. We are looking at the Battle of the Georges as George Washington heads to Fairfax Virginia to take on rival George Mason. The Patriots are 17-1 including a 5-0 record in the Atlantic Ten Conference and that only loss came on the road at Virginia Tech six weeks ago. Following a road win at Loyola-Chicago, they are back home where they are 12-0 and 44-5 at EagleBank over the last three seasons. George Washington is coming off a loss which could be a play on rebound spot but not here. The Revolutionaries are 12-6 including 3-2 in the conference with the other loss on the road at Richmond and while the offense is potent, the defense is not. George Washington has allowed 79 points or more nine times and that is pretty important as George Mason is 26-0 over the last three seasons when scoring 80 or more points and while it can be arbitrary considering if teams score 80 points they are likely going to win but the matchups sometimes do not dictate that but this one does. George Mason is 26-4 in its last 30 games as a favorite, winning by an average of 10.5 ppg. Play (876) George Mason Patriots

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This is a play on the NORTHERN COLORADO BEARS for our CBB Bounceback Baller. This is a quick turnaround for both teams after playing Saturday night and we give the edge to the desperate and pissed off home team. Northern Colorado is coming off a loss as it fell in overtime at Sacramento St. after blowing an 18-point lead midway through the second half as the Bears were on the wrong end of the free throw chart, getting outscored 25-11 at the line. They return home where they are 5-2, losing to Denver and Weber St. but more concerning is that they are 1-5 in the Big Sky Conference but four of those losses have been on the road. This includes an opening loss at Montana St. by 14 points so we have a quick payback opportunity. Making the spot better is that the Bobcats are coming off a home rivalry win over Montana which put them at 4-1 in the conference and this is the sparring bounce back/letdown/revenge situations favoring the home team. 10* (882) Northern Colorado Bears

This is a play on the MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES for our CBB Contrarian Crusher. This will likely be the most contrarian play of all the games Monday but that is what we do. We went against Marquette with our free play on Friday as it lost by five points at DePaul to drop to 1-7 in the Big East Conference, the only win coming by one point at home against Xavier. It has been a miserable season for the Golden Eagles and overall they are 6-13 but to their credit, six of those losses have been by one or two possessions including four of their five home losses. This is the buy low spot as they welcome Providence which is off a much needed win as it defeated Creighton by five points at home on Friday as it improved to 2-5 in the conference. Two of those losses were in overtime including one against Connecticut so there is nothing wrong with that but this is a tough get up spot and there could be the look ahead to Ed Cooley returning in the next game. 10* (878) Marquette Golden Eagles

This is a play on the DETROIT PISTONS for our NBA Late Attraction. After losing the season series to Boston last season three games to one, Detroit has a chance to return the favor tonight after winning two of the first three meetings this season. The Pistons are  coming off a blowout win over Indiana to make it five wins in six games although going back a bit further, Detroit is 4-2 in its last six home games after starting 12-2 at home. While it is a revenge spot for Boston who has been great in revenge spots, Detroit is 10-1 in its last 11 games against above average teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. After losing two straight games, Boston has won its last two games in Miami and in Atlanta while also snapping a four-game ATS losing skid. No Jason Tatum has been no problem for the Celtics as Jaylen Brown is playing at the ultimate high level but they come in just 3-3 ATS on the road in revenge games. Here, we play on home teams after allowing 105 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 130 points or more. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) since 2022. 10* (576) Detroit Pistons

This is a play on the WASHINGTON WIZARDS for our NBA Afternoon Dominator. The Clippers got their one game bump with the absence of Kawhi Leonard who will remain out again tonight after winning in Toronto on Friday to make it five straight wins and they have covered all of those games as well which makes this the fade spot. Los Angeles has moved into a tie with Memphis for the final Play-In spot in the Western Conference at the exact halfway mark of the season. They remain on the road where they are 7-14. Washington had a pulse for a bit as it went on a three-week stretch of going 7-5 but has since lost six straight games including five on the road including most recently a four-game west coast roadtrip. This included a loss against the Clippers as a close game in the fourth quarter turned into a 14-point loss and a non-cover. The Wizards are 6-2 ATS at home this season revenging a same season loss. Here, we play on underdogs of seven or more points revenging a same season loss going up against an opponent off an upset win as a road underdog. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) since 2017. 10* (566) Washington Wizards

This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our CFB Game of the Year. Indiana looks unstoppable and unbeatable at this point and the Hoosiers come in as overwhelming favorites to win the National Championship at -340 and yes we are going contrarian with value in the spread. Indiana had been listed as a 5.5-point favorite prior to the Semifinals and after the Oregon rampage, the Hoosiers were at 7.5 across the board. We have since seen it move to 8.5 which is in reality is a dead number but any extra edge could be huge. The line of scrimmage usually dictates the outcomes of most games and that will certainly be the case here. The Hoosiers usually have that advantage but not here and we start with the Miami defense. College Football Nerds on X provided a great rushing statistic, If you look at their season, in all the close games (Penn State, Iowa, Ohio St.) Indiana was held under 3.5 yards/carry. Every time Indiana ran for 4+ yards/carry vs  a P4, they won by 25+ points. In this matchup, the Hurricanes are tied for No. 7 in the country, allowing 3.0 ypc and in the three CFP games, they have allowed 255 yards on 80 carries (3.2 ypc). Overall, Miami is No. 15 in Defensive EPA and it recorded 13 sacks and 17 tackles for loss in wins over Texas A&M, Ohio St. and Mississippi. Offensively, Miami needs to run the ball and continuously run it even if there is no success early on. Miami ran 51 times against Mississippi and 37 times against Ohio St. and they line has the talent and the power to control and also, surrendered just eight sacks and 15 tackles for loss in the three games. Against Power 4 teams, Indiana has been run on more than 30 times only twice, Penn St. and Iowa and we know the results of those games. Yes, it is easier said than done, but stick to the plan and Miami will cover and has a chance to win outright. 10* (287) Miami Hurricanes