Matt Fargo Sports Handicapper Review & Free Picks

This is a play on the NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES for our MWC Game of the Month. We have seen this number plummet as Air Force hits the road for its first real road trip of the season with its only other road game coming at Nevada. Air Force is coming off a huge win at home over Navy which puts the Falcons in a tough letdown spot with a revenge game against UNLV on deck but this is not the reason for the line move. Starting quarterback Liam Szarka, who also led the Falcons in rushing last season and was atop the list this season, has been shut down for the rest of the year. Northern Illinois is 0-4 but the Huskies outgained the opponent in two of those with the exceptions being games at Iowa and Arizona. They are back home for their first home game against an FBS team and it is also their first game since joining the Mountain West Conference and it just so happens to be a night game. Here, we play home teams after 2 straight losses by 17 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 40-22 (64.5 percent) since 2017. 10* (416) Northern Illinois Huskies

This is a play on the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Arkansas is arguably the worst team in the SEC as it is battling it out with South Carolina but the bad teams can give us the greatest value if the situation calls for it and this is one of those. The Razorbacks came into the season as a rebuilding project under first year head coach Ryan Silverfield but there has been progress, namely in the running game. Tennessee bounced back from its loss against Texas with a win over Auburn and is now back on the road for the first time in a month with no stability at quarterback. Volunteers starter Faizon Brandon was benched at halftime after throwing for zero yards with George MacIntyre taking over and throwing for just 86 yards, the first time Tennessee has been under 100 yards passing in a decade. Until this gets fixed, they are to be avoided, especially at this number. Here, we play against road teams averaging 4.8 or more ypc going up against teams averaging fewer than 3.0 ypc. This situation is 38-13 (74.5 percent since 2022. 10* (400) Arkansas Razorbacks

This is a play on the VANDERBILT COMMODORES as part of our CFB Afternoon 3-Pack. Are we sure the SEC is really a dominant conference with a top heavy class of talent? It isn’t as we get further into the season as Alabama and Georgia look to be on another level while all of the other teams are just beating up each other with Texas still trying to prove it belongs. Mississippi was thought to be on that top level after defeating LSU but the Tigers have done nothing to prove they are great with their big wins coming against average Clemson and Texas A&M teams. The Rebels have the edge of coming off their bye week but they are severely overpriced. Vanderbilt has lost two straight but we are still backing them here as they are back home following two tough road games at Auburn and Georgia. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 off a road loss, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 40-12 (76.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (398) Vanderbilt Commodores

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA SOONERS as part of our CFB Afternoon 3-Pack. We love buy low/sell high spots and this could be one of the biggest ones in the early part of the season as Oklahoma came into the season as a legitimate playoff contender and the bottom has fallen out as losses at Michigan and at Georgia were sandwiched around a 14-6 home win over New Mexico. The offense is being dissected and rightfully so as they have been unable to do anything over this three-game stretch but one thing that has not changed is the defense as the Sooners are No. 1 in Defensive EPA. Texas is in the sell high spot as they are undefeated and fraudulent being a very suspect No. 1 team. The public loved them as is the norm and we have a big time public perception situation in this game with 82 percent of the tickets on the Longhorns but just 51 percent of the money on their side which shows the big money bets are on the Sooners. Here, we play against neutral field favorites of 3.5 to 10 outgaining their opponents by 75 or more ypg. This situation is 42-17 (71.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (396) Oklahoma Sooners

This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS as part of our CFB Afternoon 3-Pack. Virginia Tech came into last week 4-0 and was a football length away from being 5-0 but that field goal was ruled no good and that deflating loss has been lingering all week. Now, the Hokies have to hit the road for the third time but this time, it leaves the east coast after playing at Maryland and Boston College and all the way out west to face a team they could care less about and being favored by double digits on top of it. California has lost two straight games, dropping a game against Clemson at home and losing at UNLV last week despite outgaining the Rebels by 119 yards as the defense has been solid both times. The offense is the real story as the Golden Bears changed offensive play callers midway through the UNLV game and it resulted in a great second half. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better off an upset loss as a home favorite, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 15-9 (62.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (394) California Golden Bears

This is a play on the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS for our Big 12 Game of the Year. Arizona came through for us last week as it pounded Cincinnati in what was a bad spot for the Bearcats including a tough travel situation and now that role falls to the Wildcats. They improved to 4-1 with the victory and have to travel east in a letdown spot and while they have played two road games, those were in the Mountain and Pacific time zones. Arizona opened 0-4 ATS and got its first cover last week and come in as the overpriced favorite. West Virginia opened 3-0 but has lost two straight games against Oklahoma St. and Iowa St. as they allowed 1,186 combined yards and the Mountaineers defensive coordinator called out his defense, calling them the worst in the country. Motivation tactic works. Here we play on home teams averaging 200 or more rushing ypg, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 5 straight games. This situation is 21-2 (91.3 percent) since 2017. 10* (352) West Virginia Mountaineers

This is a play on the KENTUCKY WILDCATS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. LSU got all of the early pub after rolling Clemson in its opener but we see what the Tigers really are. The only other decent win was against Texas A&M at home but Kentucky also defeated the aggies and it was on the road. This is the classic Kentucky spot where no one wants to pay attention but only one bad second half against Alabama has marred a possible undefeated start. LSU quarterback Sam Levitt was one of the big transfers this season coming over from Arizona St. but he has been pretty average and the better quarterback is arguably on the other side in Kenny Minchey who has thrown for 1,148 yards with 11 touchdowns and just one interception against a schedule that is No. 7 in the country. This being a night game in Lexington only adds to the home dog aspect. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - off a win by three points or less over a conference rival, in the first half of the season. This situation is 34-11 (75.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (350) Kentucky Wildcats

This is a play on the PENN ST. NITTANY LIONS for our CFB Late Main Attraction. Why is Penn St. favored? That is exactly what every person is asking themselves and laying money on USC because they think the wrong team is favored. Admittedly, we were on the Trojans last week at home against Washington in a great bounce back spot and they barely survived. Now they head east and this team has been horrible in this situation as USC is 3-16 ATS in its last 19 games in the Eastern and Central Time Zones with one ATS loss this season at Rutgers. Penn St. is coming off a second straight loss, the last one being embarrassed at Northwestern where it was outgained on the ground 413-41 and this is the buy low spot because everyone saw that nationally televised game and will want no part of the Nittany Lions. Here, we play against road teams off a home win going up against an opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. This situation is 26-10 (72.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (344) Penn St. Nittany Lions

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. We will keep playing the domino effect in the SEC as we were against Florida last week after the Gators' big win over Mississippi (who we faded after their LSU win) as they were dominated at Missouri and now we are back on Florida in a huge bounce back situation. They are back home and will get back to their own dominating ways here as they are still well involved in the CFP conversation but can ill afford a slip up. South Carolina opened 2-0 with wins in games it was favored by 35.5 and 44.5 points and has since lost three straight games, all in the SEC. Head coach Shane Beamer and his team were booed off Williams-Brice Stadium's field after blowing a 17-0 lead against Kentucky and losing on a two-point conversion in overtime. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better coming off a double digit upset loss as a favorite of six more points. This situation is 23-3 (88.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (330) Florida Gators

This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our CFB Early Main Attraction. The argument here is that Nebraska has played no one in its 5-0 start and while the schedule rank of No. 111 proves that, the Huskers have dominated every opponent and they can only take care of business with what is put in front of them. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea was first team All-MWC at UNLV and he has started here right where he left off. This is the No. 8 ranked team in experience and past history of head coach Matt Rhule against ranked teams will put people on the other side. The defending  national champions are getting 71 percent of the money as the Hoosiers are also 5-0 and the same schedule can be said for Indiana also with a No. 103 ranked slate as its only challenge was Northwestern and it barely escaped. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home win, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 28-9 (75.5 percent) since 2022. 10* (328) Nebraska Cornhuskers