Jimmy Boyd in 
Do you want tournament bracket trends that will give you an edge when filling out your bracket this year? Lucky for you, I’ve done the research so you don’t have to.
I’m sure you know to have a No. 12 picked to beat a No. 5 in your bracket. I’m sure my upset predictions will have one or two of those in there. But this article goes more in-depth to give you a better understanding of where the historical advantages lie.
Filling Out NCAA Tournament Bracket: Statistics on #1 Team & #1 Seeds
Struggles of the No. 1 Ranked Team in the Nation
Here’s some food for thought that just might surprise you. Since the seeding process began in 1979, only eight teams have entered the Big Dance ranked number one in the final AP or Coaches Poll and gone on to cut down the nets.
- Kentucky (1978 — *Pre-dates modern seeding*)
- North Carolina (1982)
- Duke (1992)
- UCLA (1995)
- Michigan State (2000)
- Duke (2001)
- North Carolina (2009)
- Kentucky (2012)
This volatility was never more apparent than in 2018 and 2023. In 2018, No. 1 overall seed Virginia became the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16, falling 74-54 to UMBC. Just five years later, Purdue followed suit, losing to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson.
In 2014, No. 1 ranked Florida advanced to the Final Four, but lost to No. 7 seeded Connecticut, who then beat No. 8 Kentucky to win the title.
Almost everyone thought undefeated Kentucky was a lock to win the tournament in 2015. The NCAA tournament odds had them at more than a 50% chance of winning. But after barely scraping by Notre Dame 68-66 in the Elite Eight, the Wildcats were defeated 71-64 by fellow No. 1 seed Wisconsin in the Final Four.
#1 Seeds in the Championship Game
Since 1979, the title game has featured two number one seeds only 10 times. While this happened recently in 2021 (Baylor vs. Gonzaga), it remains a relatively rare occurrence.
However, you can be fairly confident that at least one No. 1 will make the Final Four. There have been only three times since 1985 when no No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four: 2006, 2011, and 2023.
Conversely, don’t over-rely on them. All four No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four only twice in history: 2008 and 2025. On average, each No. 1 seeded team has about a 40% chance of making it out of their region.
Trends on Picking & Predicting Most Likely Upsets in March Madness
We all know it’s important to pick some live dogs, but you still want to be smart. While No. 1 seeds are no longer perfect in the first round, they are 154-2 all-time. If you have a 16 over a 1 this year, history says you’re playing with fire.
A No. 15 has knocked off a No. 2 only 11 times. While three of those upsets have happened since 2021 (Oral Roberts, Saint Peter’s, and Princeton), No. 2 seeds still hold a dominant 149-11 record.
The volume of upsets increases at the No. 3 vs. No. 14 and No. 4 vs. No. 13 levels. No. 3 seeds are 133-23 against No. 14s, while No. 4 seeds are 127-33 against No. 13s.
The No. 5 versus No. 12 matchups are the ones everyone talks about, and for good reason. No. 5 seeds are 103-57 against No. 12s since 1985. With a success rate of roughly 64%, history suggests at least one No. 12 seed will advance to the second round in most years.
Don’t ignore the No. 6 vs. No. 11 matchup either. No. 11 seeds have a respectable 61-95 record, making them one of the most consistent sources of early-round value. Meanwhile, the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game is a true toss-up, with No. 9 seeds holding a razor-thin 81-75 all-time advantage.
How Far Does Cinderella Dance?
If you’re looking to pick a deep Cinderella run, keep these ceilings in mind:
- No. 12 Seeds: The furthest they have ever gone is the Elite Eight (Missouri 2002, Oregon State 2021).
- No. 11 Seeds: Six No. 11 seeds have made the Final Four (most recently NC State in 2024), but none have ever reached the Championship game.
- The Champion: The lowest seed to win it all is a No. 8 seed (Villanova, 1985).
Check out the furthest each seed has gone in the tournament for more.
Connecticut became the first No. 7 seed to win the title in 2014, which currently leaves the No. 5 seed as the only top-eight seed to have never won a national championship.
These trends should give you a better idea of the percentages when filling out your NCAA tournament bracket this March.
More Tournament History Articles
- History of March Madness
- Past Performances of Top Coaches
- Previous Final Four Odds
- March Madness Bracket Tips
