Jimmy Boyd in 
The NFL preseason is a different animal from the regular season – and that’s exactly why savvy bettors love it.
In August, information is king and edges abound for those willing to do the homework.
While casual fans shrug off exhibition games, sharp bettors know there’s real money to be made.
In this guide, we’ll explore advanced strategies to predict both sides and totals in NFL preseason games.
From quarterback depth charts to coaching motivations, roster battles to joint practices, we’ll show you how to turn August football into a profitable endeavor.
Why NFL Preseason Betting Is a Different Ballgame
Betting on the preseason isn’t like betting Week 1 of the regular season.
Coaches aren’t trying to cover spreads – they’re evaluating talent and installing schemes.
Star players rest, playbooks are vanilla, and fourth-string heroes can decide games.
You have to handicap the preseason completely differently than the regular season.
In fact, there’s virtually no correlation between preseason records and regular-season success – remember the 2017 Browns who went 4-0 in August then 0-16 when it counted?
The key is embracing the unique chaos of preseason football and leveraging the factors that truly matter in exhibition games.
Sharp Insight: The notion that “only degenerates bet on preseason” is outdated. Many expert NFL handicappers jump on preseason lines because bookmakers offer softer odds and lower limits, knowing fewer bettors put in the work. If you’re prepared and informed, the preseason can be a moneymaker while others sit on the sidelines.
Quarterback Depth Charts – Betting on Backup QBs
One golden rule of preseason handicapping: know the quarterback rotations inside and out.
In August, you’re not betting on Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen – you’re betting on the backups and third-stringers who will play most of the snaps. Teams with deep, talented QB depth charts have a huge edge in preseason games.
Consider the 2022 Pittsburgh Steelers as a prime example.
With Ben Roethlisberger retired, the Steelers entered that preseason with three legitimate quarterbacks vying for the job: veteran Mitch Trubisky, long-time backup Mason Rudolph, and first-round rookie Kenny Pickett.
All three saw significant action – and it showed on the scoreboard. Pittsburgh went 3-0 that preseason, as Trubisky and Rudolph each led touchdown drives and Pickett famously engineered a game-winning drive in his NFL debut.
The Steelers’ QB trio shredded opposing backup defenses, combining for multiple TD passes and nearly flawless efficiency (Pickett went 19 of 22 with 3 TDs over two games). This kind of quality depth at the game’s most important position can tilt a preseason matchup in your favor.
On the flip side, if a team has a superstar starting QB but weak depth behind him, they might be a poor bet.
A team whose No. 2 and 3 quarterbacks are inexperienced or struggling will often stall out on offense once the starter exits after a series or two.
For example, imagine a top-heavy team where the starter plays one drive and then an undrafted rookie QB takes over – that team could be at a big disadvantage for the remaining three quarters.
Always compare the entire QB depth charts: a strong backup (or a mobile QB who can create plays behind a backup offensive line) can outshine a better team’s third-stringer and steal a win.
Savvy bettors scout preseason rosters to see which teams have the firepower in reserve to put up points once the stars are sipping Gatorade.
Tips for Quarterback Analysis: Check local reports and coach quotes for planned QB snap counts. Coaches often reveal how they’ll divide QB playing time – e.g. “Our starter will play one quarter, then the backups will split the rest.”
If one team’s starter is slated for 15 snaps while the other is resting theirs entirely, that’s a huge factor.
Also, mobile backup QBs can be a secret weapon: when playing behind second-string offensive lines, a quarterback who can scramble might turn broken plays into big gains, whereas a statue-esque pocket passer could be a sitting duck with backup blockers. All of this goes into your preseason calculus.
Coaching Tendencies and Win Motivation
Not all coaches treat the preseason the same. Some are ultra-competitive, pushing to win every game, while others use August strictly for evaluation and couldn’t care less about the final score. As a bettor, understanding these coaching tendencies is crucial.
Take John Harbaugh of the Baltimore Ravens, the poster child for preseason intensity. Harbaugh’s Ravens famously ripped off 24 straight preseason victories from 2015 to 2023 – an NFL record.
He treated each August game like it mattered, often going for wins with aggressive play-calling and leaving backups in longer to close out games.
That mindset yielded not just wins but covers; Harbaugh’s teams went 40-18 against the spread in preseason during one stretch. Betting on the Ravens each preseason became almost free money until that streak finally snapped in 2023.
Harbaugh even bristled at the idea that those games were “meaningless,” praising his players’ effort and fighting spirit. Coaches who prioritize winning in August can offer reliable betting value, especially if the market hasn’t fully adjusted.
Contrast that with a veteran coach like Andy Reid of the Chiefs or Bill Belichick of the Patriots. Both are legends in the regular season, but in preseason their records are middling (hovering around .500).
Reid often uses preseason to simply get his starters a little work (if at all) and then evaluates young players.
For instance, in 2024 Reid outright said he would rest Patrick Mahomes and all starters in the final preseason game after giving them some action in the first two. If you had blindly bet Kansas City as a favorite in preseason, you’d probably be burned more often than paid.
Understanding that Belichick and Reid don’t chase preseason wins helps you avoid overvaluing their teams’ talent advantage when the motivation edge isn’t there.
Other coaching patterns to note: New head coaches often want to establish a winning culture and impress the home fans, so they may take preseason more seriously. A coach on the hot seat might also try harder to notch some wins to build positive buzz.
Meanwhile, coaches of veteran, playoff-caliber teams might be content to go 1-2 or 0-3 in preseason as long as they stay healthy.
Always research career preseason records of head coaches and even coordinators. Many sports sites publish these records each year, highlighting coaches like Harbaugh or Mike Tomlin (who quietly has a strong preseason mark himself) and flagging those who historically underperform in August.
Bottom line: If one sideline has a coach with a proven preseason win rate and the other has a coach who treats exhibitions like practice, that’s a significant factor in picking a side. A motivated team of backups can absolutely beat a complacent squad that’s just going through the motions.
Roster Battles and Player Evaluation Goals
In preseason, player motivation can be as important as coach motivation.
Specifically, teams with heated roster battles and lots of young players fighting for jobs can have an edge in effort.
Think of preseason as a stage where third-string players are giving 110% to make the team, while veterans are simply trying not to get hurt.
As a bettor, you want the teams with something to prove.
Key areas to look at:
- Quarterback Competitions: If two QBs are duking it out for a starting job, that team is likely to get each QB’s best effort and a more aggressive game plan. A famous example was Washington in 2022 when two veterans competed for the starting role – those QBs treated preseason drives like the playoffs, knowing each series could win or lose them the job. Similarly, when a coach announces “open competition” at any position (QB, running back, kicker, etc.), you can expect a heightened urgency from the players involved. A battle for QB1 or even QB2 can lead to sharper execution and maybe a few extra passing plays to let each guy shine. All else equal, back the team with a quarterback competition over a team with an entrenched starter who will play sparingly.
- Young vs. Veteran Teams: A youthful roster with many draft picks and undrafted free agents has dozens of guys trying to secure their spot. These players often approach preseason games as literal career tryouts. A rebuilding team full of hungry youngsters might keep the pedal down in the fourth quarter to impress coaches, whereas an older veteran team may be content to coast. As one handicapper notes, teams without many veterans “will often take these games a little more seriously”. Just be cautious: if a team is young and loaded with blue-chip talent, coaches still won’t risk their future stars too much, no matter how eager the kids are.
- Teams Coming Off a Bad Season: If a franchise had a disappointing year, they sometimes use preseason to “set a tone” and wash off the stink of last season. For example, imagine a team that went 4-13 last year – they might approach the preseason with a chip on their shoulder, aiming to instill a winning mindset. A few August wins can boost morale for a struggling team. Conversely, a reigning Super Bowl contender might view preseason as purely tune-up and have zero urgency to win games.
- Player Showcase Games: In some cases, a team might give extra snaps to a player on the roster bubble to fully evaluate him – or even showcase him for potential trades. If you read that a fourth-string running back will get 20 carries because the coaches “want to see what he can do,” that could lead to unexpected offensive focus (could be good or bad depending on his talent). Beat reporters often clue in on these plans, e.g. “Coach X said they plan to feature rookie RB John Doe extensively in the second half.” Use that info to adjust your expectations for scoring or yardage props.
In summary, identify which team has more to play for at the individual level.
A team of motivated roster hopefuls can often outplay a more talented team that’s mailing it in.
A famous preseason upset involved a veteran playoff team facing a squad of mostly unknowns – the unknowns won outright because they treated it like the Super Bowl while the vets treated it like a scrimmage.
These intangible factors of hunger and effort are hard to quantify but incredibly important.
Joint Practices and Travel Fatigue
One newer factor in NFL preseasons is the rise of joint practices.
Teams often arrange to practice with their upcoming preseason opponent (or another team) during the week, engaging in controlled scrimmages that sometimes are as intense as a real game.
Why does this matter?
Because if starters and key players already got their reps in a spirited joint practice, coaches may rest them in the actual preseason game that follows.
Imagine Team A and Team B spent two days hitting each other in joint sessions – the coaches have seen their starters compete in a controlled environment and won’t risk them again in the exhibition two days later.
Those games often end up being decided by deep reserves.
For instance, if you hear that “the Patriots and Eagles had intense joint practices all week,” you can expect the game itself to feature more backups and possibly a vanilla approach (they don’t want to show any new looks after practicing together).
The trend since the NFL shortened preseason to 3 games is more teams doing joint practices and then holding starters out of the subsequent game entirely.
Always account for this: a team coming off physical joint practices might be a little flat in the game, especially if key guys sit or play briefly.
Travel and scheduling quirks also come into play. The preseason schedule can be odd – teams might play on a short week, or travel cross-country for a meaningless game.
A coach facing a long trip may leave several veterans at home. If a team has back-to-back road games in weeks 1 and 2, that second game could see fatigue or more players rested (why subject them to two road trips?).
Conversely, a team with an extra rest day or two could be fresher and better prepared. Sometimes one team simply has more time to prepare/practice than their opponent and travel can negatively impact a team, especially if they play their first two on the road.
Real example: In 2019, one team scheduled joint practices out West then had to fly back East for a preseason game three days later. Not surprisingly, the coach sat almost every starter for the game, and the team came out flat, losing 20-7.
Bettors who anticipated the travel fatigue and lack of interest profited by taking the fresher home underdog.
So, check the schedule grid: short turnarounds, cross-country flights, and joint practice weeks are all situational angles that can point you to a winning bet or a total lean (e.g. a tired, disinterested team might not score much).
Offensive Line Rotations and Defensive Schemes
We all know quarterbacks are critical in preseason, but don’t neglect the trenches.
Offensive line play can make or break an offense – and in preseason, O-lines are often patchwork.
Coaches typically rotate many linemen to test depth, and injuries or precautionary rests can leave a team starting mostly second-stringers up front.
If you identify a team with a decimated or inexperienced O-line in a preseason game, consider backing the other side or the under.
A backup QB behind a shaky line is a recipe for stalled drives (or turnovers).
On the flip side, a team with a deep offensive line – say they’ve invested in quality reserves – can sustain drives longer with their backups, leading to more points.
For example, suppose Team X is resting three starting linemen, and their backups have struggled in camp.
Meanwhile, Team Y plans to play their first-round rookie left tackle and a solid swing guard they signed in free agency.
Team Y’s offense might actually function better in the second half since their line can still protect and run-block, whereas Team X’s backfield might be under constant duress.
These nuances show up in preseason results all the time.
On defense, consider each team’s schematic approach.
Many coaches run vanilla defenses in August – basic coverages, very little blitzing – to avoid putting anything on film.
But a few defensive coordinators have been known to dial up pressure even in exhibition games.
Notably, Gregg Williams (a former DC) once caught attention for blitzing repeatedly in a preseason game, even sending eight-man rushes that left the opposing QB (Nick Foles) getting crushed.
There’s no “unwritten rule” against blitzing in preseason – some coaches just choose to play it safe, while others treat it like a real game and bring heat.
If you know a team has an aggressive defensive scheme or a coordinator who’s fighting for a job, they might blitz often, leading to more sacks and possibly turnovers.
A blitz-happy defense facing a third-string quarterback can dominate (think forced fumbles, hurried throws, maybe a defensive touchdown).
That could argue for betting that team or perhaps looking at the under (if you expect the offense to get stifled) or the over (if those turnovers lead to short fields or defensive scores).
The key is that scheme mismatches – like an aggressive defense vs. an unprepared backup QB – can create a significant edge in preseason.
Also, keep an eye on teams experimenting with new schemes.
A team with a new offensive coordinator might be installing a system – sometimes they struggle in preseason as players think through assignments, resulting in disjointed offense.
Or a new defensive scheme might lead to busted coverages that savvy opponents exploit for big plays.
Reading camp reports can tip you off: if an offense is “still finding its rhythm” under a new coach, maybe fade their offense early on.
Conversely, a stable team returning the same system might execute crisply even with backups (they’ve had the playbook for years), which can give them a leg up on less cohesive opponents.
Leveraging Beat Reporter Info and Insider News
Here’s where sharp bettors separate themselves: information gathering.
In preseason, knowing who is going to play and for how long is pure gold.
Oddsmakers struggle to price games when lineups are in flux, so if you can get reliable info before the books adjust, you’ve struck it rich.
Local beat reporters and team sources are your best friends.
These journalists attend practices, talk to coaches, and often tweet or publish which players looked good in practice and who might start or sit in the next game.
Coaches frequently hint at their plans in press conferences.
For example, you might read a report: “Coach plans to give the starting offense two series on Saturday” or “Rookie QB expected to play the entire second half.” This kind of detail is crucial for estimating outcomes.
In fact, a smart strategy is to listen to coaches’ pressers and read weekly beat write-ups to gauge playing time allocations.
If you learn that one team’s starters will play a quarter and the other’s only one drive, you’ve got an edge to exploit right away.
Pay attention to injury reports and camp battles in the news as well.
If a team’s top two running backs are dinged up and won’t play, their run game might stall – or a fourth-string back will get 15+ carries (could lead to an under if he’s ineffective, or surprisingly an over if he’s a hidden gem running against tired defenders).
If a rookie wideout has been lighting up camp and now gets extended run with the second team, he might produce big plays that swing a total.
These are the granular insights you can glean only by combing through team-specific news.
During the preseason, it’s often said that Twitter and team beat reports are worth more than any algorithm. This is because historical data and power rankings mean little when half the players on the field won’t be on a roster next month.
Instead, it’s about who will be on the field tonight. Sharp bettors devour local news to find out things like which quarterbacks will play the bulk of the game, which key players are resting, and even strategic hints (e.g. “Coach X wants to work on the no-huddle offense in this game” – indicating a faster pace and maybe a live over bet).
One powerful angle is watching line movements that occur due to inside info. Limits are low in preseason, so even moderate bets by sharps can move the line quickly if news breaks.
If you see a point spread jump from -2 to -4 overnight, or a total drop from 36 to 33, you can bet there was information behind that move (perhaps a star QB is sitting or a coach announced a conservative game plan).
Pros often bet preseason lines early in the week when info trickles out – beating sportsbooks before they can fully adjust.
As a result, following the money can be instructive: significant preseason line moves (unlike regular season) are almost always driven by sharp info, not public hype.
A wise bettor will a) grab those early numbers if they have the info first, and b) respect the moves if they missed the news – or sometimes go contrarian if the market grossly overreacted.
In short, do your homework and be plugged in.
Treat the preseason like an investigative project – read everything from the local beat writers, follow team Twitter accounts, and even consider watching press conference videos.
The edges you gain in knowing personnel plans can translate directly into winning bets.
Sharp vs. Public Betting: Psychology and Line Value
The preseason betting marketplace often pits informed sharps against clueless public money.
Understanding this dynamic can help you find value.
The public still bets preseason games, though not as heavily as regular season.
When they do, they might lean on name recognition – backing teams with star players or big fanbases, or taking overs because they assume “points will be scored.”
This can create mispriced lines that savvy bettors pounce on.
For instance, a high-profile team like the Dallas Cowboys might open as a 3-point favorite in a preseason game.
Casual bettors think “Dallas is much better than Jacksonville” and take the Boys, unaware that Dallas plans to rest most starters and play vanilla, while Jacksonville’s new coach is hungry for his first win.
The line might be inflated by public bias.
A sharp bettor happily takes the Jaguars +3 (or on the moneyline) in that scenario, essentially fading the public perception in favor of insider knowledge.
Historically, underdogs have been a profitable angle in preseason.
Since 1995, underdogs are about 53.7% against the spread in preseason games , comfortably above break-even.
This makes sense – talent gaps narrow when backups play, and motivated underdogs often win outright.
Sportsbooks know casual bettors gravitate to favorites (“Team A should beat Team B”), so the lines often shade that way.
Simply leaning toward dogs, especially small dogs of +1 to +3, has yielded great returns (nearly 60% ATS in recent years).
And if you really want to exploit public bias, road underdogs in tight games are gold – road teams get little home-field advantage in preseason, so those extra points are gravy.
In fact, road underdogs of +2.5 or less have covered two-thirds of the time since 2015.
The public tends to overvalue home-field and favorites, but in preseason a lot of those conventions go out the window.
Another psychological factor is overreaction to last week’s results.
If a team won 30-10 last week, the public might hammer them the next game, assuming they’re “looking great.”
But sharps know each preseason game is isolated – game plans and lineups change week to week.
Often a team that scored a ton one week comes back down to earth the next.
In fact, teams that put up 34+ points in a preseason game went only 11-17-1 ATS in their next outing in recent years.
The market tends to overestimate them, providing value in fading that team after an outburst.
Likewise, a team that got shut out might be a good bet to bounce back (especially if coaches emphasize a better showing).
As a bettor, be cautious of “recency bias” – oddsmakers sometimes shade lines based on last week’s score because they know that’s all the public has to go on.
Use that to your advantage by identifying when a line is an overreaction.
Finally, remember that preseason lines move on information, not power ratings.
If you’re ahead of the news, you can grab a great number.
If you’re late, don’t chase steam blindly – evaluate if the move has gone too far.
For example, a total might open 35 and drop to 32 after reports of rain and backup QBs starting.
By the time it hits 32, the value of the under might be gone (or it could even swing to value on the over).
Being contrarian in preseason usually means being ahead of the curve (taking an underdog or under before the line moves your way).
There’s less point in contrarian betting after the line moves, since the value’s been extracted by those first sharp bets.
In summary, approach preseason betting with a sharp mindset: fade lazy assumptions, embrace uncertainty, and capitalize on the public’s mistakes.
The sportsbooks keep limits low for a reason – they know informed bettors have an edge. Make sure you’re one of them.
Betting Totals: Scoring Patterns and Opportunities
Preseason totals are typically much lower than regular season – you’ll often see over/unders in the low 30s to mid-30s.
This reflects the expectation of clunky offense, backup quarterbacks, and conservative game plans.
However, the totals market has its own quirks that sharps exploit.
One key observation: extremely low totals tend to go Over, while higher preseason totals often go Under.
Since 2010, games with closing totals below 37 have gone Over about 59% of the time.
It’s a counter-intuitive stat – low totals invite bettors to take the over (“it’s such a low number!”) and indeed, those games have exceeded the modest expectations quite often.
Why? Sometimes oddsmakers and the public overestimate how low-scoring a preseason game will be. All it takes is a couple of busted coverages or a defensive touchdown to push a 33 total over.
On the flip side, games with higher totals (37 or above) have trended Under 56%+.
When sportsbooks anticipate a relative shootout by preseason standards, reality often disappoints – perhaps because coaches decide to sit players late or weather comes into play.
The number 37 has been a magic line of demarcation in recent years.
So if you see a total creeping up to 38 or 39 due to hype around two offensive-minded coaches, history suggests you consider the under.
And if you see an over/under of 32 that everyone expects to be a snoozer, don’t be shocked by a 20-17 final (over 32) as backups accidentally score a bit more.
It’s also useful to understand scoring patterns by week of preseason.
In the old four-week format, Week 3 was the “dress rehearsal” where starters played the most, often leading to higher scores, while Week 4 was a dumpster dive with very low scores.
Under the current three-game format, trends are still emerging, but we’ve seen many teams treat Game 2 as the main tune-up and Game 3 as a light outing.
For example, in 2024 the Chiefs played Mahomes and the first-team offense in the first two games (even breaking out a trick play), then rested them entirely in Game 3.
That final week’s game, predictably, was lower scoring with backups throughout.
Meanwhile, Week 1 games can be unpredictable – often lower scoring due to rust, but occasionally a backup QB duel turns into a surprise shootout if defenses are very vanilla.
A smart approach to totals is to contextualize each game: Who is under center for most of it? Are both teams likely to pound the run (common if coaches just want to get through healthy, leading to running clock and unders), or is there a QB competition that might encourage more passing (more clock stoppages and scoring chances)? What’s the weather – summer thunderstorms can and do impact preseason games (a sloppy field or lightning delay can kill scoring).
Also, consider if either team has a specific goal that affects pace: a coach might say “we need to work on our tempo offense” (hinting at a faster pace = over), or conversely, “we need to establish the run and evaluate our O-line” (hinting at a run-heavy approach = under).
Another angle: Hall of Fame Game and early preseason openers tend to be low-scoring slugfests historically.
These games feature teams that reported to camp early, often with lots of reserves, and offenses that have had barely a week of practice.
Totals in the Hall of Fame Game (the very first exhibition) are extremely low – sometimes around 30 or 31 – and yet many years the under still hits comfortably.
If you can grab a reasonable number early and weather looks good, those opening games have been solid under plays (though monitor – in some years a few explosive plays have pushed them over late).
Always check which QBs are slated to play in these early games; in 2024, the Jets and Browns sat nearly all starters in the Hall of Fame Game, and the total closed near 31.5.
When an early move nudged it upward, one betting preview wryly noted that might be a signal for savvy bettors to take the under, fading the line move.
Indeed, understanding line moves is key: if a total jumps up due to public betting, you might pounce on the value created on the under (or vice versa).
In summary, betting preseason totals requires blending data with situational insight.
Use historical trends (like the <37 Over trend) as a guide, but always overlay the specific circumstances of the game: QB rotations, coaching plans, and even psychology (e.g. two coaches who know each other might informally agree not to run up the score or to end a game in a tie rather than risk overtime).
If you can anticipate the flow of the game better than the market, totals are there for the taking.
Many bettors ignore preseason O/U completely, which means when a line is off, it can be way off.
That’s where you swoop in.
Final Thoughts on NFL Preseason Handicapping
Handicapping NFL preseason games profitably comes down to doing what the average bettor won’t: deep research, real-time information gathering, and understanding the unique motivations at play.
It’s about knowing that a third-string QB and a coach’s philosophy on August football can matter more than any Pro Bowler on the bench.
While others throw darts in the dark, you’ll be piecing together the puzzle – Which coach wants to win? Which QB will play the most? What did the beat writers say about practice? – and making informed bets.
Yes, preseason football is unpredictable by nature.
But therein lies the opportunity: sportsbooks post lines with limited information, and if you can supply that missing info, you hold the advantage.
Sharp bettors thrive in the chaos of the preseason, uncovering gems like a motivated underdog or a mispriced total, and capitalizing before the odds makers catch up.
It’s a bit like finding value in the stock market – you’re looking for those overlooked assets (teams or scenarios) that are poised to outperform expectations.
Approach each game with a fresh eye (because every week in preseason is a reset) and don’t be afraid to trust your research over public narratives.
The betting public might scoff at betting on games where starters barely play, but as we’ve shown, the preseason has a logic all its own.
When you combine solid handicapping principles – depth chart analysis, coaching tendencies, situational angles – with on-the-pulse news, you can consistently beat these exhibition lines.
In a few weeks, the NFL’s stars will be back under the bright lights and the betting lines will tighten sharply.
But for now, in the dog days of summer, opportunity knocks in the form of a little August football.
If you’ve ever wanted to bet like a sharp, the NFL preseason is a great proving ground.
Do the work, think differently, and you might just start the season with a nice profit before Week 1 kickoff.
Happy preseason betting – may your underdogs bark and your insights be sharp!
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