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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Nebraska -3
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are now 16-2 ATS in their last 18 games overall. They have been lacking the respect they deserve from the books all season. Now they are only 3-point home favorites over Indiana tonight and should have no problem getting the win and cover. The Hoosiers have won four in a row but it has come against the four worst teams in the conference in Rutgers, Minnesota, Illinois and Iowa. The Huskers have a lot at stake here as they are looking to secure a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. Indiana is 4-17 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last three seasons. Nebraska is 14-1 SU & 11-2 ATS at home this season with its only loss coming to Kansas by a single point. Give me the Cornhuskers.
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Free Total Annihilator On Rutgers vs Ohio State under 129 -105
Jack’s Free Pick Tuesday: Baylor +1
The Baylor Bears were dead in the water a few weeks ago when they were sitting at 12-10 after a 2-8 stretch with several close losses along the way. But instead of packing it in, the Bears have dug deep to go 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
The Bears are now on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament with more work to do. This stretch has included a 16-point home win over Kansas and a win over Texas Tech, the top two teams in the Big 12. They also beat Iowa State by 14 at home, and upset both Texas and Oklahoma State on the road.
Now they get to host a West Virginia team that is down and out right now. The Mountaineers blew a big lead late at Kansas over the weekend, and that loss sealed their fate and made it so that they are assured not to win the Big 12 this year. I think they’ll suffer a hangover from that defeat.
Baylor wants revenge from a 54-57 loss at West Virginia in their first meeting this season, adding to their motivation. Baylor is 6-0 ATS off a conference home win this season. West Virginia is 2-10 ATS in road games off three straight conference games over the last two years. The Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Baylor Tuesday.
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Play - Wyoming (Game 538).
Edges - Cowboys: 5-1-1 ATS with revenge this season… Lobos: 2-10 ATS when coming off consecutive wins in this series… With New Mexico off a 15-point revenge win over Utah State, and the Cowboys looking to avenge a 75-66 loss at New Mexico last month, that we recommend a 1* play on Wyoming. Thank you and good luck as always.
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Free Pick on Mercer -
I'm recommending laying the big number here with the Bears at home against the Catamounts. These two teams are headed in different directions. Mercer has won and covered 5 straight, while Western Carolina has dropped 3 in a row, all by double-digits.
A major factor here is just how much better the Bears are at home compared to on the road. Mercer is 10-3 at home compared to just 5-10 on the road. The Bears are outscoring opponents by almost 17 ppg at home. The Catamounts are just 5-12 away from home, where they are getting outscored by nearly 14 ppg.
Western Carolina is also a mere 8-20 ATS in their last 28 as a road dog of 10 or more points and just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games off a double-digit home loss. Take Mercer!
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10* FREE NCAAB PICK (Arkansas -5.5)
I'll gladly back the Razorbacks at home here against the Wildcats. Arkansas comes in having won 4 straight and the most recent was a 19-point (94-75) win at home over a good Texas A&M team. The Razorbacks are now 14-1 at home this season and it's going to electric tonight at Bud Walton Arena.
Kentucky comes in off a 81-71 win and cover over Alabama at home. I had the Wildcats in that contest, as that had the feeling of a must-win after they had dropped 4 straight, plus Kentucky is a much better team at home. I just don't trust this team on the road, as this is no where close to the caliber of Wildcat team that we have seen in the past under Calipari. Kentucky has lost 4 straight on the road in SEC play and all 4 have come by at least 8 points.
Arkansas isn't going to let the fact that this isn't a great Kentucky team from playing their hearts out here. The Razorbacks have lost 5 straight in the series, all by 15 or more points. It's time for Arkansas to get some revenge and make a statement here against the Wildcats at home. Give me the Razorbacks -5.5!
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I'm recommending a play on New Mexico plus the points on Tuesday. The Lobos won this season's first meeting 75-66 as a 2 1/2 point favorite after trailing by five at the half. Most important hustle stats went the way of the Lobos, but they committed 20 turnovers, yet still won by nine. New Mexico takes care of the basketball on the road, averaging 12.2 turnovers per game. The teams have similar defensive numbers in their last five games, but UNM owns the better offensive numbers of late, including shooting 46.4 percent to 42.4 percent for Wyoming. The Lobos are also nailing 42.6 percent of their 3-pointers in their last five, while averaging over 8 steals per contest. Neither team has been fattening wallets, but Wyoming has covered just one of their last seven games and they're on a 6-28-2 ATS slide against teams with losing records. The bottom line, Wyoming is often overvalued against sub-.500 teams and our power ratings say they're overvalued again. Recapping: These teams enjoy a similar pace, they're similar on the defensive end of late, but it's UNM that owns the better current form on the offensive end. We're recommending a play on New Mexico plus the points on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
The Play and How to Play it:
The Play: Western Carolina
The Matchup: W CAROLINA (12 - 16) at MERCER (15 - 13)
Start Time: Tuesday, 2/20/2018 7:00 PM
SIM grading: 4 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Recommended Strategy: Place a 7-star wager on using the line. The current line shows Villanova installed as an eight-point favorite. It always is prudent to shop for the best line available, if you are able to have multiple accounts established. If that is not the case, then simply make our plays with the line your service provides.
There will be games we lose by the hook and games we win by the hook. Over the course of the season and a calendar year spanning all major sports, the wins and losses by the hook will more than offset each other. So, simply wager the games we release at the line you can get and keep your focus on grinding out profits over the long-term and never just one single day or even week of results.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics
Western Carolina is not a good team this season, but they have improved offensive ball movement and rank 105th posting a 0.549 assist-to-FGM ratio. This strength will exploit Mercer’s horrid defense that has posted a 341st rank with a 0.627 opponent assist-to-FGM ratio. WCU has the patience and discipline to keep moving the ball for the best sot opportunity. WCU A2FGM ratio has steadily improved from a very poor reading of just 0.41 in the beginning of the season to a season-high of 0.55. Moreover, the 5-gane moving average when plotted against the season-to-date average and game specific data shows a positively sloped line. This is the same as a bullish sloping moving average for a stock or commodity in the markets.
Game Intelligence Analytics
Play against any team (MERCER) off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog.
And is now facing an opponent off 2 consecutive home losses of 10 points or more.
68-29 since 1997 for 70.1%, $3610. Per $100 wagered.
When the team is a home favorite, this query produces a 51-20 ATS mark for 72% and has made $2900 per $100 wagered.
SIM Matching Game Situations
o 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
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If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning techniques - some of which have been around since the 1950's. Also, have deployed AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and have augmented total rate of returns in all sports. The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms has been applied to the NFL and have no doubt helped propel our NFL plays to an amazing 46-24 ATS record in 2017 and also a 5-2 ATS mark for the Top-Rated 10 Star College Hardwood Titans and on a 12-7 ATS run in the NBA and 11-6 NHL run.
Toledo has covered just twice in its last 11 visits to Eastern Michigan. The Rockets are off a 28-point road loss to Ball State this past Saturday. Yet they remain in great shape needing to win just once in their last four games to secure a first-round bye in the Mid-American Conference Tournament. So the Rockets are unlikley to bring a strong sense of urgency to this matchup. Eastern Michigan has won 11 of its 13 home games. The Eagles rank first in the MAC in defensive efficiency. Their zone defense can be tricky especially against opponents seeing it for the first time. That's the case here as this is the first matchup of the season between these two teams. Toledo could have problems handling James Thompson IV, who leads the MAC in rebounding and field goal percentage while averaging 15.1 points a game. The Rockets may also be minus starting guard Marreon Jackson, who is third on the team in assists and second in steals. He also is the team's best 3-point shooter. Jackson missed the Rockets' last game with a knee injury and is questionable here. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover has his Big Ten Parlay of the Year heading up his Tuesday ticket today. Stephen is one of the top basketball and hockey 'cappers in the country. Don't miss any of his plays!)
1* Free Play on Texas A&M -6½ -105
Dave’s Tuesday Free Play:
1* on Wyoming -4.5
The Key: The Wyoming Cowboys will be looking to avenge a 66-75 road loss at New Mexico in their first meeting this season on January 10th. The home team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings in this series. Wyoming is 12-3 at home this year while New Mexico is just 2-10 in all road games. The Lobos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Wyoming is 15-6 ATS when revenging a loss over the last 2 seasons. Take Wyoming.
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1* Free Play on Akron +6 -110
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ASA PLAY ON Under 165.5 Points - The Citadel @ ETSU, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET
Even though The Citadel is one of the fastest paced teams in college basketball they don’t score as much as they should because of an inefficient offense that averages just 1.024 points per possession (233rd) and an EFG% offense that is 251st. Plus the Citadel will have a tough time scoring here against an ETSU defense that is one of the best statistically in the nation. East Tennessee State is 36th in defensive efficiency ratings, 19th in EFG% defense overall, 28th in 3-point percentage defenses and 31st in 2-point percentage. ETSU isn’t interested in playing fast either as they are ‘average’ when it comes to pace of play or tempo. When these same two teams met in late January they combined for just 144 total points. That’s because the better team dictates tempo which is ETSU. When The Citadel played a similar UNC Greensboro team to ETSU recently they combined for 130 total points and earlier in the season combined for 126. THE BET HERE IS UNDER THE TOTAL! Best of luck from ASA on Tuesday
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