The NFL is a quarterback driven league and there isn’t much more evidence of that than a look at the NFL MVP odds. They are normally dominated by franchise QBs on winning teams.
It’s why the signal caller position is so highly paid, why teams are willing to use so much draft capital on the hopes of landing the next big thing, and why teams will quickly move on from a pass thrower not getting the job done.
Let’s take a look at how the odds to win this year’s NFL MVP are currently shaking out.
Odds to Win 2023-24 NFL MVP Award
|Trent Jordan Watt||+20000||0.50%|
How to Bet on Who Will Win the NFL MVP
In order to place wagers on this futures bet you’ll have to have a book that has the odds and you’ll need to know how to read the odds so you can know what your payout should be.
Where to Bet on the Odds to Win NFL MVP?
Before the season you have plenty of options, but once the season starts there aren’t as many sportsbooks that update the NFL MVP odds on a weekly basis.
One of the best places in the states that have legalized sports betting is DraftKings. DraftKings has plenty of options, frequently updates the numbers, and gets them posted early.
Circa does a good job of having their odds up during the week. Later in the season they sometimes also do Yes/No lines so you can get two way action. You don’t just have to pick a player that you like to win the MVP, you also can find players to fade.
How to Read the NFL Futures Odds on the MVP Award
The odds above are listed in American format, but the other common format you will see is fractional.
The way to read American odds format for negative (-) numbers is that you have to wager that amount to win $100. Those are the favorites.
For example, if the player is listed at -150 to win the award then you need to bet $150 to win $100.
If the number is positive (+) then a $100 will win you that amount in profit. For example, if a player is +325 then a $100 wager will win you $325 in profit.
Strategies for Betting on Who Wins the NFL MVP
You might think that picking which player will win the MVP is a difficult task and it certainly can be. While we can put a system together for you that will produce a lock, we certainly can give you some strategies that will improve your chances
Timing Your Bets on Who Wins the NFL MVP
The odds are going to change at different points in the season. If a player is playing really well you can imagine the books are going to adjust their odds pretty aggressively.
On the other hand, if a player has an off game or gets off to a slow start you know you can get more favorable odds by waiting.
Looking Ahead at the NFL Schedule Before Betting
One strategy that I like to employ when betting futures is looking at the future schedule. Does the player have a tough game coming up this weekend? If so, it’s better to wait to get your action in.
If they have a soft game this weekend and an easy upcoming schedule, you are better off getting your wager in now before they put up impressive numbers and the odds really move against you.
What Players Typically Show the Most Value
When it comes to winning the MVP you want to look at really good teams and the best player on that time. Nine times out of ten that’s going to be the quarterback.
The favorites are going to be the top players in the league on the best teams, but if there is a long shot team that you think will perform well this season, there might be some value in their top guys.
You can get big payouts on assets that are undervalued. Heading into the season, players that are coming off an injury, are moving to a new team and better situation, or players who really came on at the end of the previous season are the top targets for bouncing back.
Pay Attention to the Media Darlings
You have to remember that with this award it’s going to be voted on by the media. The voters can be influenced by public opinion and who is getting the most attention by their peers.
The voters don’t like voting for the same player year after year, they don’t like players that have problems off the field, and I would say they do favor players who give solid interviews and look good on camera.
Right or wrong, these are things you have to think about if you are going to win your wager on a season player award.
Previous Winners of the AP NFL MVP Award
|2022||QB||Patrick Mahomes||Kansas City Chiefs|
|2021||QB||Aaron Rodgers||Green Bay Packers|
|2020||QB||Aaron Rodgers||Green Bay Packers|
|2019||QB||Lamar Jackson||Baltimore Ravens|
|2018||QB||Patrick Mahomes||Kansas City Chiefs|
|2017||QB||Tom Brady||New England Patriots|
|2016||QB||Matt Ryan||Atlanta Falcons|
|2015||QB||Cam Newton||Carolina Panthers|
|2014||QB||Aaron Rodgers||Green Bay Packers|
|2013||QB||Peyton Manning||Denver Broncos|
|2012||RB||Adrian Peterson||Minnesota Vikings|
|2011||QB||Aaron Rodgers||Green Bay Packers|
|2010||QB||Tom Brady||New England Patriots|
|2009||QB||Peyton Manning||Indianapolis Colts|
|2008||QB||Peyton Manning||Indianapolis Colts|
|2007||QB||Tom Brady||New England Patriots|
|2006||RB||LaDainian Tomlinson||San Diego Chargers|
|2005||RB||Shaun Alexander||Seattle Seahawks|
|2004||QB||Peyton Manning||Indianapolis Colts|
|2003||QB||Steve McNair||Tennessee Titans|
|2003||QB||Peyton Manning||Indianapolis Colts|
|2002||QB||Rich Gannon||Oakland Raiders|
|2001||QB||Kurt Warner||St. Louis Rams|
|2000||RB||Marshall Faulk||St. Louis Rams|
|1999||QB||Kurt Warner||St. Louis Rams|
|1998||RB||Terrell Davis||Denver Broncos|
|1997||RB||Barry Sanders||Detroit Lions|
|1997||QB||Brett Favre||Green Bay Packers|
|1996||QB||Brett Favre||Green Bay Packers|
|1995||QB||Brett Favre||Green Bay Packers|
|1994||QB||Steve Young||San Francisco 49ers|
|1993||RB||Emmitt Smith||Dallas Cowboys|
|1992||QB||Steve Young||San Francisco 49ers|
|1991||RB||Thurman Thomas||Buffalo Bills|
|1990||QB||Joe Montana||San Francisco 49ers|
|1989||QB||Joe Montana||San Francisco 49ers|
|1988||QB||Boomer Esiason||Cincinnati Bengals|
|1987||QB||John Elway||Denver Broncos|
|1986||ROLB||Lawrence Taylor||New York Giants|
|1985||RB||Marcus Allen||Los Angeles Raiders|
|1984||QB||Dan Marino||Miami Dolphins|
|1983||QB||Joe Theismann||Washington Redskins|