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The NFL is a quarterback driven league and there isn’t much more evidence of that than a look at the NFL MVP odds.  They are normally dominated by franchise QBs on winning teams.

It’s why the signal caller position is so highly paid, why teams are willing to use so much draft capital on the hopes of landing the next big thing, and why teams will quickly move on from a pass thrower not getting the job done.

Let’s take a look at how the odds to win this year’s NFL MVP are currently shaking out.

Odds to Win 2024-25 NFL MVP Award

PlayerOddsImplied Probability
Patrick Mahomes+47517.39%
Cj Stroud+85010.53%
Josh Allen+85010.53%
Joe Burrow+90010.0%
Lamar Jackson+14006.67%
Jordan Love+14006.67%
Brock Purdy+14006.67%
Jalen Hurts+15006.25%
Aaron Rodgers+16005.88%
Dak Prescott+16005.88%
Justin Herbert+18005.26%
Tua Tagovailoa+22004.35%
Matthew Stafford+30003.23%
Trevor Lawrence+30003.23%
Anthony Richardson+30003.23%
Kirk Cousins+35002.78%
Jared Goff+40002.44%
Christian McCaffrey+40002.44%
Kyler Murray+50001.96%
Deshaun Watson+60001.64%

How to Bet on Who Will Win the NFL MVP

In order to place wagers on this futures bet you’ll have to have a book that has the odds and you’ll need to know how to read the odds so you can know what your payout should be.

Where to Bet on the Odds to Win NFL MVP?

Before the season you have plenty of options, but once the season starts there aren’t as many sportsbooks that update the NFL MVP odds on a weekly basis.

One of the best places in the states that have legalized sports betting is DraftKings.  DraftKings has plenty of options, frequently updates the numbers, and gets them posted early.

Circa does a good job of having their odds up during the week.  Later in the season they sometimes also do Yes/No lines so you can get two way action.  You don’t just have to pick a player that you like to win the MVP, you also can find players to fade.

How to Read the NFL Futures Odds on the MVP Award

The odds above are listed in American format, but the other common format you will see is fractional.

The way to read American odds format for negative (-) numbers is that you have to wager that amount to win $100.  Those are the favorites.

For example, if the player is listed at -150 to win the award then you need to bet $150 to win $100.

If the number is positive (+) then a $100 will win you that amount in profit.  For example, if a player is +325 then a $100 wager will win you $325 in profit.

Strategies for Betting on Who Wins the NFL MVP

You might think that picking which player will win the MVP is a difficult task and it certainly can be.  While we can put a system together for you that will produce a lock, we certainly can give you some strategies that will improve your chances

Timing Your Bets on Who Wins the NFL MVP

The odds are going to change at different points in the season.  If a player is playing really well you can imagine the books are going to adjust their odds pretty aggressively.

On the other hand, if a player has an off game or gets off to a slow start you know you can get more favorable odds by waiting.

Looking Ahead at the NFL Schedule Before Betting

One strategy that I like to employ when betting futures is looking at the future schedule.  Does the player have a tough game coming up this weekend?  If so, it’s better to wait to get your action in.

If they have a soft game this weekend and an easy upcoming schedule, you are better off getting your wager in now before they put up impressive numbers and the odds really move against you.

What Players Typically Show the Most Value

When it comes to winning the MVP you want to look at really good teams and the best player on that time.  Nine times out of ten that’s going to be the quarterback.

The favorites are going to be the top players in the league on the best teams, but if there is a long shot team that you think will perform well this season, there might be some value in their top guys.

You can get big payouts on assets that are undervalued.  Heading into the season, players that are coming off an injury, are moving to a new team and better situation, or players who really came on at the end of the previous season are the top targets for bouncing back.

Pay Attention to the Media Darlings

You have to remember that with this award it’s going to be voted on by the media.  The voters can be influenced by public opinion and who is getting the most attention by their peers.

The voters don’t like voting for the same player year after year, they don’t like players that have problems off the field, and I would say they do favor players who give solid interviews and look good on camera.

Right or wrong, these are things you have to think about if you are going to win your wager on a season player award.

Previous Winners of the AP NFL MVP Award

2022QBPatrick MahomesKansas City Chiefs
2021QBAaron RodgersGreen Bay Packers
2020QBAaron RodgersGreen Bay Packers
2019QBLamar JacksonBaltimore Ravens
2018QBPatrick MahomesKansas City Chiefs
2017QBTom BradyNew England Patriots
2016QBMatt RyanAtlanta Falcons
2015QBCam NewtonCarolina Panthers
2014QBAaron RodgersGreen Bay Packers
2013QBPeyton ManningDenver Broncos
2012RBAdrian PetersonMinnesota Vikings
2011QBAaron RodgersGreen Bay Packers
2010QBTom BradyNew England Patriots
2009QBPeyton ManningIndianapolis Colts
2008QBPeyton ManningIndianapolis Colts
2007QBTom BradyNew England Patriots
2006RBLaDainian TomlinsonSan Diego Chargers
2005RBShaun AlexanderSeattle Seahawks
2004QBPeyton ManningIndianapolis Colts
2003QBSteve McNairTennessee Titans
2003QBPeyton ManningIndianapolis Colts
2002QBRich GannonOakland Raiders
2001QBKurt WarnerSt. Louis Rams
2000RBMarshall FaulkSt. Louis Rams
1999QBKurt WarnerSt. Louis Rams
1998RBTerrell DavisDenver Broncos
1997RBBarry SandersDetroit Lions
1997QBBrett FavreGreen Bay Packers
1996QBBrett FavreGreen Bay Packers
1995QBBrett FavreGreen Bay Packers
1994QBSteve YoungSan Francisco 49ers
1993RBEmmitt SmithDallas Cowboys
1992QBSteve YoungSan Francisco 49ers
1991RBThurman ThomasBuffalo Bills
1990QBJoe MontanaSan Francisco 49ers
1989QBJoe MontanaSan Francisco 49ers
1988QBBoomer EsiasonCincinnati Bengals
1987QBJohn ElwayDenver Broncos
1986ROLBLawrence TaylorNew York Giants
1985RBMarcus AllenLos Angeles Raiders
1984QBDan MarinoMiami Dolphins
1983QBJoe TheismannWashington Redskins

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