The goal for every NFL team entering the season is to make it into the playoffs and play their way into a Super Bowl championship. Most will fail.
Below are the the current odds to make the playoffs for each NFL team. You can use these odds to help make your predictions on which teams have to best chances to win it all at the end of the season, or which teams will go over or under their season win totals.
2023 Odds to Make the NFL Playoffs
|Team||Yes Odds||No Odds|
|Green Bay Packers||+450||−650|
|Kansas City Chiefs||−8000||+1600|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+1200||−3000|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+155||−190|
|New England Patriots||+2500||−20000|
|New Orleans Saints||−150||+120|
|New York Giants||+2500||−20000|
|New York Jets||+220||−280|
|San Francisco 49ers||−2000||+1000|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+200||−250|
How NFL Playoff Odds are Set and Updated
Before the season starts the odds are mainly set based on how the team’s performed last season, any recent roster changes, and the bets that have been taken on each team.
Did the Team Make the Playoffs Last Year?
The first thing the oddsmakers consider is how the team did the year before. Was the team in the playoffs and contending? Did they just miss out on making it or were they a bottom feeder looking for a high draft pick?
But it’s more than just win or loss record. Was there a big injury that influenced how they played? Did they have a massive discrepancy in turnover differential that kept them down?
What Teams Improved Enough to Make the Playoffs This Year?
After breaking down how each franchise did the year before you have to analyze the moves they made in the offseason. Did they lose anyone that will be difficult to replace? Was there a heading coaching change?
Did they hit out of the park in the draft and get some really solid players? Did the team sign a big name free agent at a key position?
These are the kinds of questions you have to ask and find the answers to in order to gauge a team’s playoff chances.
Are the NFL Playoff Odds Moving on Certain Teams?
Once the odds are set and released to the general public the guys behind the counter will then start moving the numbers based on action from the betting markets.
There are plenty of sharp players that look for weaknesses in the NFL futures market and these guys will look to exploit any weaknesses found in the oddsmakers numbers.
You can see big movements as every little advantage is analyzed by the sharps looking to find any edge they can to win over the books.
How Much Do the NFL Playoff Odds Change in the Regular Season?
Once the first game kicks off and the season is underway there will be plenty of changes to each team’s probabilities to make the postseason.
The first thing that will cause a change are the wins and losses. Even if the best team in the league gets off to a slow start, they are putting themselves in a tough position to succeed in the postseason.
If bad teams pull a few early upsets, they might not have to win that many of their remaining games to back their way into a playoff spot. Knowing the standings and what is required out of each team to make it to the postseason is the first step in breaking down the odds.
You’ll want to look past the standings though. Did any teams suffer a key injury recently? Did any opponents on top of the standings suffer an injury? What does the rest of the team’s schedules look like as they finish the regular season?
You have to go passed the obvious and get to the second level when doing your NFL handicapping and that is no different with futures like the playoff odds.