Jimmy Boyd in A ticket bought on a rookie at a long-shot price is really a bet that his touches double before the depth chart changes back. That’s the trade at the core of this market: paying for volume that doesn’t exist yet. A high pick buys a rookie his opening price before he’s proven anything, and the board takes time catching up to what’s actually happening on the field.
Quarterbacks and first-round receivers get the benefit of the doubt in that price, no matter what the depth chart says early on. A back or receiver already playing real snaps can still sit behind both, priced lower than his workload justifies. Knowing which side you’re betting is the real skill here.
2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
| # | Player | Best price | Book | Implied | 7 days | Since start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carnell TateWR · Titans | +450 | BetMGM | 18.2% | +13% | -43% |
| 2 | Denzel BostonWR · Browns | +470 | FanDuel | 17.5% | -27% | -75% |
| 3 | Jonah ColemanRB · Broncos | +600 | DraftKings | 14.3% | -31% | -92% |
| 4 | KC ConcepcionWR · Browns | +600 | DraftKings | 14.3% | -23% | -58% |
| 5 | Carson BeckQB · Cardinals | +1800 | BetMGM | 5.3% | -36% | -52% |
| 6 | Omar CooperWR · Jets | +1800 | DraftKings | 5.3% | – | – |
| 7 | Caleb DouglasWR · Dolphins | +2200 | Caesars | 4.3% | -60% | -27% |
| 8 | Makai LemonWR · Eagles | +2200 | Caesars | 4.3% | even | -9% |
| 9 | Fernando MendozaQB · Raiders | +2500 | BetMGM | 3.8% | +10% | +159% |
| 10 | Mike WashingtonRB · Raiders | +3300 | Caesars | 2.9% | +107% | -42% |
| 11 | Jadarian PriceRB · Seahawks | +3500 | BetMGM | 2.8% | -40% | +689% |
| 12 | Germie BernardWR · Steelers | +4000 | Caesars | 2.4% | +84% | -53% |
Show all 47 playersShow fewer
| 13 | Antonio WilliamsWR · Commanders | +4500 | Caesars | 2.2% | +79% | +88% |
| 14 | Seth McGowanRB · Colts | +4500 | BetMGM | 2.2% | +6% | -70% |
| 15 | Jordyn TysonWR · Saints | +5000 | BetMGM | 2.0% | -20% | -50% |
| 16 | Jeremiyah LoveRB · Cardinals | +5000 | bet365 | 2.0% | +317% | +1567% |
| 17 | Emmett JohnsonRB · Chiefs | +6000 | Caesars | 1.6% | +25% | -9% |
| 18 | Cole PaytonQB · Eagles | +6500 | DraftKings | 1.5% | – | – |
| 19 | Eli RaridonTE · Patriots | +6600 | BetMGM | 1.5% | even | -40% |
| 20 | Ted HurstWR · Buccaneers | +7500 | bet365 | 1.3% | – | – |
| 21 | Malachi FieldsWR · Giants | +8000 | BetMGM | 1.2% | +21% | +33% |
| 22 | Kaelon BlackRB · 49ers | +10000 | BetMGM | 1.0% | even | +71% |
| 23 | Ja’Kobi LaneWR · Ravens | +10000 | FanDuel | 1.0% | +21% | – |
| 24 | Kenyon SadiqTE · Jets | +10000 | BetMGM | 1.0% | even | +100% |
| 25 | Skyler BellWR · Bills | +10000 | bet365 | 1.0% | – | – |
| 26 | Eli StowersTE · Eagles | +10000 | bet365 | 1.0% | – | – |
| 27 | Cyrus AllenWR · Chiefs | +10000 | DraftKings | 1.0% | – | – |
| 28 | Demond ClaiborneRB · Vikings | +10000 | bet365 | 1.0% | – | – |
| 29 | Kaytron AllenRB · Dolphins | +10000 | bet365 | 1.0% | – | – |
| 30 | Drew AllarQB · Steelers | +10000 | bet365 | 1.0% | – | – |
| 31 | Nicholas SingletonRB · Titans | +10000 | bet365 | 1.0% | – | – |
| 32 | Josh CameronWR · Jaguars | +15000 | BetMGM | 0.7% | +7% | +20% |
| 33 | Zavion ThomasWR · Bears | +15000 | BetMGM | 0.7% | -20% | -33% |
| 34 | Chris BellWR · Dolphins | +15000 | BetMGM | 0.7% | +33% | +67% |
| 35 | Nate BoerkircherTE · Jaguars | +15000 | bet365 | 0.7% | – | – |
| 36 | Sam RoushTE · Bears | +15000 | bet365 | 0.7% | – | – |
| 37 | Justin JolyTE · Dolphins | +20000 | bet365 | 0.5% | – | – |
| 38 | Zachariah BranchWR · Falcons | +25000 | BetMGM | 0.4% | even | +67% |
| 39 | Jalon DanielsQB · Buccaneers | +25000 | BetMGM | 0.4% | – | even |
| 40 | Ty SimpsonQB · Rams | +25000 | bet365 | 0.4% | – | – |
| 41 | Vega Ioane | +25000 | DraftKings | 0.4% | – | – |
| 42 | Will KacmarekTE · Dolphins | +30000 | bet365 | 0.3% | – | – |
| 43 | Eli HeidenreichRB · Steelers | +30000 | bet365 | 0.3% | – | – |
| 44 | Blake MillerOT · Lions | +50000 | bet365 | 0.2% | – | – |
| Only one book still prices these | ||||||
| 45 | Kevin ColemanWR · Dolphins | +10000 | Caesars | 1.0% | – | – |
| 46 | Chris Autman-Bell | +10000 | FanDuel | 1.0% | – | – |
| 47 | Athan KaliakmanisQB · Commanders | +30000 | DraftKings | 0.3% | – | – |
Best price is the longest number we found across bet365, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel. Implied probability strips nothing out; the whole board adds to more than 100% and that gap is the books’ margin. Movement is the change in what a winning dollar pays, so a move means the same thing at the top of the board and at the bottom; green means the price shortened. It reads across the books quoting a player both then and now, and a row too thinly quoted to compare shows a dash rather than a number. Since start runs from the first day we have every book’s price, which is not the market’s opening line.
Why a High Pick Still Outprices an Empty Stat Line
Draft capital is the identity of this market. A quarterback or a first-round receiver walks into the 2026 NFL season with a shorter price than his production justifies, since teams protect first-round investment with playing time whether it’s earned yet or not.
The practical move is treating draft slot and workload as separate bets. Carnell Tate sits at +450, good for an implied probability of 18.2%, and that number only holds if touches keep pace with the hype.
Jeremiyah Love drifted by 317% to +5000 recently, and a swing that size usually traces to a role change, not a highlight. That’s the signal worth tracking all season.
Sizing a Bet That Has to Survive Depth Chart Changes
A futures ticket on this market sits dead until usage data catches up, and that can take half a season. Betting one name means betting that a role never changes hands, a long window for any depth chart to hold steady.
Spreading a small stake across two or three prices gives more paths to cash without stretching the bankroll. A ticket on Carnell Tate paired with a smaller ticket further down the board covers both the pedigree play and the workload play, since this market prices each differently.
Shopping bet365, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel before placing either ticket matters more here than most markets, since a rookie’s price can vary by how fast each shop updates its depth chart intel. A better number on the same name is free value sitting there for whoever checks first.
A Role That Doesn’t Exist Yet, Priced as if It Does
Blake Miller sits at +50000, a price that only cashes if touches show up that nobody projected when the number opened. That’s the bar every longshot on this board has to clear: an actual role, not just a name on a roster.
Most prices that far down stay dead money because the depth chart in front of them never moves. The ones worth a small ticket are usually rookies already flashing in limited snaps, waiting on an injury or a coaching decision to hand them real volume.
A ticket at that number only makes sense as a lottery piece, small enough that losing it doesn’t sting and big enough that a role change pays for the swing. Treat it as a long shot, not a lean.
